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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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binani_anand
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Quote binani_anand Replybullet Topic: INOX LEISURE
    Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 12:21pm

INOX FOR 2 TO 3 YEAR PERSPECTIVE LOOKING GOOD FOR INVESTMENT. THR COMPANY SHOULD GROW 50% IN YEARS TO COME. From the current around 40 screens across 11 multiplexes, the company IS on an expansion plan to set up a total of 100 screens across 25 multiplexes.looking at aggresive plans & good concept I think its a good buy.

 

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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 1:27pm

Yes Anand, Inox is a great concept. Come to think of it with increasing disposable income and changing lifestyles with favorable demographics these companies have very stable business models They act as anchor tenants and drive traffic into a mall so they enjoy the benefits of lower rentals also. Inox has tied up with Pantaloon Retail for opening up centers in all the new malls that the latter develops. A friend of mine recently visited Darjeeling and he conveyed that the shows were going House Full!  Inox is expanding its multiplex chain. Very soon Inox shall merge its operations with Calcutta Cinema Pvt Ltd (popularly known as Cinema 89.) This will give Inox a substantial presence in eatern India.. India is underscreened with only 12 screens per million populations. (CII-KPMG Report).There is scope for a ten times growth to this number. It is estimated that Inox shall increase the number of screens  from the current 41screens across 11 multiplexes to a total of 100 screens across 24 multiplexes.Revenues could grow at more then 60% for the next 2 years from Rs.102 crores in FY06 to Rs 162cr in FY07 and Rs260 crores in FY08.Presently ticketing revenues account for about 70% of its total revenues while the other heads like food, beverages, car parking make up the other 30%. The company has been aggressive in increasing ticket prices so enjoys superb pricing power. All new properties to be set up by the company will be on a long term lease basis as against the 50:50 break up of leased and owned properties in FY06. While this could  increase rental expenses there would be a reduction in interest, depreciationand also increase the free cash flow potential of the company. Getting into a lease mode is always important because in case  a property does not work out the tenant can immediately vacate the area and start at a new place,. On the other hand if you own a property it makes it a bit more difficult for you to move around. Also in cae of owed properties the balance sheet will look more like a real estate company rather the entertainment business. In Fy7 Inox should do an Eps of Rs 6 which should further increase to Rs 9 by Fy 08. At a current market price of Rs125 the potential growth for long term investors is very high. Inox’s strategy to tie up with pantaloons shall give it huge power in terms of attracting traffic to their multiplexes. This is so because departmental stores and multiplexes are the two main areas that attract crowd to shopping malls.

 

Inox is also a great case for the Peter Lynch fan. Other Peter Lynch concepts can be accessed by clicking on the following link.

 

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=23

 



Edited by basant - 02/Oct/2006 at 8:21am
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Quote maag Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 3:50pm
Mr Anand your stock went up by 20% today. When should we buy? Do we wait for correctiuon or just jump in I like the concept of watching movies at Inox never thought that I should have bought this share before reading these writeups.Any answers any one.
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Quote binani_anand Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 5:54pm
I think it has got good future for time to come . One should buy the stock imme. if   one is convinced about the story & getting the valuation right . I think multiplexes has changed the concept of seeing movies in India. Now what I feel now a days is that people do not want to go at cinema halls , they prefer multiplexes. On valuation front its looks cheap to me taking 2 year view considering huge expansion plan the company has....... once its fully operated .
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Quote equity analyst Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 9:35pm
Ok looks like its good time to buy Inox,but still i have 1 quetion to ask,why not buy PRIYA PVR OR ADLABS,I have seen movie in PVR  Delhi the are jus doing great,and they are having more screens then Inox and are more aggressive in expansion.There presence are in more cities then Inox.And Adlabs i like because Reliance are having stake in it and they r also in Film processing.So which 1 is the best among the 3 leaders.
"Markets are the places where two types of people meet up in the morning: those with experience and those with money. Towards the end of the day, they exchange their assets and go home."
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 11:03pm
Adlabs is surely the one big media conglomerate in the making. They are getting into films, Tv serials, FM Radio but the recent equity dilution that they did has made the stock appear over priced. Also a large number  of all their businesses are in the funding and implementation stages therefore any profits from the existing business might be offset from the losses in the newer ones. But for a person with a 3 year persepctive Adlabs is the show to watch out for.
 
PVR's market cap is too high and also Innox's tie up for property with Pantaloon will create synergies in terms of attracting traffixc for both parties. So while PVR is also good I would tend to favour Inox at these prices! 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote Money Master Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 12:47pm
Is there any emrging Walt Disney here in India? Theme parks, entertainment businesses, cartoons...Buffet made gud money in media companies like Washington post & Walt Disney?
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Quote sajanvm Replybullet Posted: 03/Aug/2006 at 7:08pm
While I agree that the multiplex business will do very well, one thought that nags me is that over the longer term this will become a commodity business as more multiplexes are built.
Thus, they need to reorient to being something more than just a movie hall.. However, in this business, location is paramount and hence the early movers will have the advantage.
Any thoughts ?
Sajan
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