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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 08/May/2009 at 9:18am
I have zero idea on real estate companies but would repeat the same logic that I discussed with Chinki over phone.
 
COmpanies that develop properties are surrogate REITS. SO in a REIT we will make a 12%-15% CAGR and that would be the long term RoE but in a surrogate REIT we may get a situation where the Market Cap + Debt is almost half of the NAV of the company's assets and that creates the undervaluation.
 
So an investor should play for this undervaluation and once that gets covered he can sell out of the stock and get along into high RoE companies because in the long term shareholders will earn only that amount which the company can gainfully extract out of its capita and Retained earnings (RoE).
 
Though I am not sure about MLL but renting, property development etc are 12%-15% RoE businesses so in a year where you get a major part of construction getting completed the RoE and EPS will jump but then over alonger period of time parity will return.
 
It is always essential to value these companies as NAV vs. Mkt Cap + Debt and buy and sell accordingly.
 
Surely these are not buy and hold stocks.
 
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shivkumar
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Quote shivkumar Replybullet Posted: 09/May/2009 at 12:09pm
That's interesting. Been checking out on MLL's competitors and I see DLF trading at a slight premium to NAV! And no one is even looking at the debt on its books forget about the new loans being availed of by management!
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bharti
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Quote bharti Replybullet Posted: 09/May/2009 at 1:27pm

I agree with valuing based on NAV.  MLL also has best management( did not buy land banks at high rates in last couple of years,  proven execution capabilities, zero debt levels, has an ability to leverage further to take advantage of coming upcycle, no equity dilution like Unitech needed etc..) so we can least expect things to go wrong in future in case of MLL compared to others .  And note that NAV is variable.  With upcycle coming, the NAV will only increase and its price will follow NAV.....

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shivkumar
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Quote shivkumar Replybullet Posted: 03/Jul/2009 at 12:16pm
Two months ago I had sent a query to Mahindra Lifespaces based on some posers by Chinki. Received a detailed reply this morning.

Here are the edited transcripts:   

I need a few clarifications on the company after reading the transcripts of Mr Arun Nanda's interview in www.moneycontrol.com

(http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/results-boardroom/sezs-were-main-sourceq4-income-mahindra-lifespace/394942)

1. Now that the Chennai SEZ (first phase) is complete how will the company earn revenues from the project? Is there any recurring revenue stream for the company from the Chennai SEZ? How will revenues from existing Chennai SEZ grow in the coming years?

Chennai MWC Project has both SEZ and Domestic Tariff area (DTA). The SEZ area has been fully leased out. The DTA industrial area already developed has been leased out and is being expanded. We are looking at further development contiguous to the existing park. This additional area as and when developed and leased would give us additional lease revenue. In addition, we have earmarked some land for retail development which is unsold. The retail strategy is under discussion.

Going forward, the recurring revenue stream for both SEZ and DTA area would be Operation and Maintenance charges and water charges.

Further, residential development will be undertaken by Mahindra Integrated Township Ltd a 74: 26 SPV between MLDL and MWCDL over the next 7/8 years.


2. When is the second phase of the Chennai SEZ coming through? Has the land been acquired for the same?

Land procurement is in preliminary stage. It will take a year before we can start development.

 

3. Will the proposed Thane SEZ also follow the Chennai and Jaipur models? That is, construction of the SEZ followed by development of land nearby for residential purposes?

 

 

The R&D focused biotechnology SEZ project is spread over 52 acres. The development model here will be largely own-built, multi-tenanted blocks and Built-To-Suit facilities. There will be some element of non-processing activity as well, mainly residential.

 

We intend having close to 1 million sq ft of development, in the form of research laboratories, office space and other ancillary facilities like libraries, auditoria, business centres, etc, supported by residential, convenience shopping, and other related elements of social infrastructure.

 

4. I was running through the financials of the company with an analyst friend of mine and he was surprised at the ROE and ROCE still being in single digits. This when, brokerages like Motilal Oswal and others, expect the company's EPS to treble in the coming years. Could youenlighten us on why this is so? Usually companies with low debt and good growth rates have ROCE of 30 per cent or thereabouts.

 

 

The main business segment of the company is Projects, Project Management and Development, in which, the income accrues as per Percentage completion accounting on fulfilment of requirements under Indian GAAP. So the Revenue and result trend is not uniform over the years.

 

Over the last 4 years the Company’s EPS has grown at a CGR of 342%. The Company runs its SEZ business thru investment in Subsidiaries. The ROE and ROCE of Consolidated business gives a correct picture of the growth of the business of the company.

 


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shivkumar
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Quote shivkumar Replybullet Posted: 03/Jul/2009 at 12:24pm
Need the advice of Basant and other seniors.

I have now tried to work out the ROCE of the company based on the consolidated figures available. Gross Profit for FY08 Rs 99 cr on a consolidated basis. With total shareholders funds at RS 863.75 cr ROCE was in the region of 11. FY09 would have seen a deterioration in fundamentals.

Remains to be seen how the company can improve ROCE and ROE in the coming years.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 03/Jul/2009 at 12:28pm
Gross profit and sh funbds does not give RoCE. Try working with np and sh funds for RoE and Op Profit and cap emp for RoCE.
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shivkumar
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Quote shivkumar Replybullet Posted: 03/Jul/2009 at 5:34pm
In that case ROCE for FY 09 is around 7! Capital Employed (consolidated) is Rs 934 cr of which Rs 244 cr remains unallocated. Net Profit (cons) is Rs 66 cr.
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Quote praveen Replybullet Posted: 09/Jul/2009 at 6:00pm
Originally posted by shivkumar

In that case ROCE for FY 09 is around 7! Capital Employed (consolidated) is Rs 934 cr of which Rs 244 cr remains unallocated. Net Profit (cons) is Rs 66 cr.
 
My two paisa input,
 
If you are looking to finetune you can remove the 244 cr from the capital employed figure. Also adjust the net-profit for post tax net interest income earned from that unutilized 244 crs.
 
Also do it for multiple years to check for any 1 time events. Also remember  certain businesses/projects have long gestation period before they start throwing significant returns... (think of trees as an example) so you might want to adjust for any capital which is employed towards such projects.
 
 
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