Mahindra Lifespaces
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
Forum Discription: These are companies operating in growing markets having have certain niches or specific attributes like new sector plays. These are emerging multibaggers with high risks and high rewards.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1557
Printed Date: 18/Apr/2025 at 9:32am
Topic: Mahindra Lifespaces
Posted By: shivkumar
Subject: Mahindra Lifespaces
Date Posted: 26/Jan/2008 at 11:12am
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Time for investors to look at solid risk-free land plays that can guarantee decent returns. My favorite is Mahindra Lifespace. It has a functional SEZ in Chennai which is showing accelerating profits for the past few quarters. Talk is that the company may be allotted more land in the surrounding areas to expand the SEZ. That would increase the CAGR to a decent level in the coming years. ML is also setting up an SEZ in Rajasthan in collaboration with the state government. Unlike other land bank/realty companies ML seems to be working closely with state govt bodies to acquire land for the projects. Though it may reduce the upside in future, it offers considerable capital protection since the state government agency is an equal partner in the project. The company is also available at an affordable P/E compared to other players like DLF, Unitech, Ansals, etc. Knowing how land bank plays are being inflated by companies who do not hold title to the properties, a P/E of 1800 or so for DLF seems way over the top. Even Reliance Industries which is developing the mother of all SEZs and with a reputation for great execution skills does not enjoy such high P/Es. That is why I am worried about investing in companies like DLF, Unitech and even HDIL. HDIL comes one notch below ML mainly for the land bank it owns in Mumbai. But land in Mumbai with slums encroached is a double edged sword. I live in Mumbai, and from first-hand experience I know that sales of houses have slowed down considerably in the past year. HDIL's properties are located in the more expensive areas of the city and the company has received in-principle SEZ in Vasai-Virar region. It is not clear if the company already owns the land or it has to buy from local people. In the latter case it will have to spend a bomb in doing so. Unlike Reliance, the company does not have a regular cash flow in the form of oil profits. HDIL's project to resettle slum dwellers at Mumbai airport could be lucrative. But the cream of the profits would already be factored in by GVK Power which is the main promoter of Mumbai International Airport Ltd. |
Replies:
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 26/Jan/2008 at 11:53am
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Sharekhan.com estimates for Mahindra Lifespace -
FY10 Revenues: Rs.936 crores
FY10 Net Profits: Rs.390 crores
EPS: Rs. 95
FY10 P/E: 8.4
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Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2008 at 6:15pm
Shiv,
Can you tell me how did you calculated P/E of 1800 for DLF. As per the financial statements on the bse, it currently trading at P/E of 23.75 on EPS of 40 for the full year FY07. And I am hopefull they will do somewhere close to 44-45 for the current year. But still I would love to know your calculation for DLF as how you derived 1800. ------------- Vishal |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2008 at 10:43pm
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[/QUOTE]
Shiv,
Can you tell me how did you calculated P/E of 1800 for DLF. As per the financial statements on the bse, it currently trading at P/E of 23.75 on EPS of 40 for the full year FY07. And I am hopefull they will do somewhere close to 44-45 for the current year. But still I would love to know your calculation for DLF as how you derived 1800. [/QUOTE]Vishal, the 1800 P/E quote was taken a little before the stock market meltdown. The latest P/E of DLF based on the recent quarterly results has risen to 9,585.19!! Earning per share in the last quarter was just ten paise. you could click the link http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/constructioncontracting-real-estate/dlf/23/09/D04 - here on moneycontrol.com for P/E information. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2008 at 10:51pm
| Moneycontrol.com is the last place you should look when it comes to company financial information. DLF is trading at 80 times FY07 earnings and at about 25 times FY08 estimated earnings |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2008 at 11:13pm
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the idbi.cmlinks site http://www.idbipaisabuilder.in/Market_Content/Cm_Data.aspx?mno=2&index=1&CM_Target=Company_Info/Comp_Snapshot.aspx%7Cid=26%7Ecocode=6890 - here calculates the P/E ratio of DLF at 472.60 as on Jan 25, 2008. here's the disclaimer on the basis of calculation (Latest Price/Earnings per share. EPS is calculated based
on latest financial year end earnings .) |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2008 at 11:33pm
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Incorrect data again.
I think it is best if you could get your hands on brokerage reports (will be definitely more accurate than websites) before you analyze a stock. If you are unable to get brokerage reports, go to the company website and look at the financials. Dividing the market cap by last 4 quarters net profit should give you an idea about the current P/E ratio.
Eg: DLF's current market cap is Rs. 160,000 crores. It had a net profit of Rs. 2,000 crores in FY07. So FY07 P/E would be 80. Going by the 9 month net profits of FY08, a net profit of Rs. 6,000 crores for the full financial year of FY08 seems to be a distinct possibility. So FY08 P/E would be 25.
Anyway, coming to Mahindra Lifespace, it seems to be a decent buy. However, the markets seem to give attention to only No. 1, 2 and 3 players only (DLF, Unitech & Indiabulls) - which can either be seen as an opportunity or as an opportunity cost - because other stocks are not moving anywhere.
I would personally prefer large players because it allows them to execute mega real estate projects. Eg: DLF bought land from DCM Shriram for Rs. 1,600 crores. You can't expect a BL Kashyap or a Purvankara Projects to manage such deals. Ditto with the DLF's Rs. 60,000 crores Bidadi Township project.
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Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2008 at 11:34pm
I dont want anyone to take this in wrong way but people before writing should little homework. Its not what you are saying for HFCL or Silverline, people its DLF. The Company by the 2010 will do profit of over 10000 crores. Its a large cap and index based stock so it will be very difficult for such stocks to have a P/e of 472 or 9000. And if this stock will have such high P/E what P/E we should give to sensex. I feel DLF is the best stock to play on India instrastructure play.
Disclosure: I have significant interest in this stock ------------- Vishal |
Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2008 at 11:35pm
I agree with Ashwin, DLF is the best to pay realty or construction stocks. ------------- Vishal |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 5:13pm
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Looks like expertise and project execution skills are finally being taken note of. The last bull run saw entities like DLF and others being played up in a big way. Now, with valuations melting conservative players like Mahindra Lifespaces are moving in for the kill. http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/12/17/NzU2MDQ%3D/PE_funds_approach_M%2526M_to_take_over_2_SEZs.html PE funds approach M&M to take over 2 SEZs BL reported that the downturn in real estate has left many in a quandary and private equity funds are no exception. Some of them now are looking up to more established promoters and developers to bale them out from large size projects such as special economic zones. Mr Arun Nanda executive director of Mahindra and Mahindra said that some private equity players had recently approached him to take over two notified SEZ projects in Maharashtra, while declining to furnish details stating that it would hamper prospects. Industry sources said that more than half of the 260 odd notified SEZs would either not come up or the timeframe would be extended. This, they say it would make their exit options difficult. Last week, the country’s largest developer DLF asked the Commerce Ministry to denotify its IT SEZ in Delhi as it would be difficult to sell office space in the midst of the slowdown. Conceding that not all SEZs would see the light of the day, Mr Nanda said that SEZs should be seen as infrastructure projects and not mere real estate propositions. He said that “We look at them as islands of excellence, which with integrated facilities will work.” Agreeing that the market was tough and funding a greater constraint, he said that it was unfortunate that the basic concept of an SEZ had been misunderstood by some. Referring to Mahindra World City, Chennai, Mr Nanda said that the residential and social infrastructure came after the commercial spaces were leased out. He said that “We first created jobs and then the residential.” Though the residential and social space can go up 50% of the project span only 35%, 350 acres would be utilized. He said that the Chennai venture is a JV between the Mahindras and the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation. Further expansion of over 1,000 acres was being contemplated and it would be in the north of Chennai, while ruling out Gummudipoondi as the preferred destination. He added that the Chennai port has a larger role to play in development and there would be acceleration in the manufacturing sector, shedding the prominent IT garb the city had for worn thus far. Mr Nanda said that the Chennai experience stood the company in good stead at Jaipur and the project was up in 2 years. He said that “The Rajasthan Government, especially the officials should be complimented for the speed we were able to set shop there. Clearances came fast and clients such as Infosys and Deutsche Bank set a deadline for July 2008.” Two more SEZ of a much smaller scale are in the pipeline at Thane and Pune. The Thane one would be a biotech SEZ across 72 acres. In Pune, the social impact assessment study was complete. While funding remains an overall issue, the conservative approach adopted by Mahindras in the real estate space helped. He said that “Being not highly leveraged, we feel it is the right time to consolidate and get future ready. In difficult times, people look at reputed companies and it is here we score. Mahindra Life space is a zero debt company. The Chennai SEZ would require INR 500 crore to INR 600 crore and Jaipur a little more and we stand well covered.” Mr Nanada further added that there would be no deceleration in any of the company’s SEZ projects as it had made commitments for delivery. Mahindra Life space would, however, phase out its projects that is if 4 towers were planned, two would be taken up and the others would be deferred to ensure alignment with the current demand. He said that “There would be no job cuts and, in fact, we are putting out an advertisement for additional manpower." |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 5:14pm
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Basant, Could you move this thread to another section like: Mid-caps that can become large-caps? Shiv Kumar |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 8:41pm
A refreshing difference relative to its peer group! ------------- |
Posted By: master
Date Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 9:09pm
It's peer group (real estate broadly) is not that bad, at least for me. Exited HDIL today after making 100% gains in less than 2 months. So, one of the Oct picks stands vindicated. ------------- Someone’s sitting in shade today because someone planted a tree long time ago. |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 11:54pm
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Companies like HDIL will offer trading opportunities at best. It is building the biggest bubble in Mumbai that would go bust if more air is pumped into it - TDR or Transfer of Development Rights. HDIL has begun construction of the rehab project to house slum dwellers at the Mumbai airport, but it is said to be facing severe shortage of cash to carry out the project. Remember, the SRA scheme is a free project and no revenue is expected to accrue till work on the buildings to be sold in the open market commences. So far, there is no sign of the work commencing. In fact, HDIL has put out big advertisements in October-November offering sale of TDR in the open market. Consequently, the price for TDR per sq ft crashed from some Rs 3600 to Rs 1300 over four to five months. According to unconfirmed reports, it is said to have fallen below Rs 1000 per sq ft now. HDIL is said to have sold around 3 lakh sq ft of TDR from the 1.74 million sq ft of TDR received by it for the airport slum project. The NAV based valuation of HDIL by brokerages is very rich because prices will crash the moment the capacity hits the market. Its a replay of the Slum redevelopment scheme of the 1990s. Now every second building planned in Mumbai is a tower. From a maximum 7 storey structure, every new bldg planned is a 14 storey structure. About 55 per cent of Mumbaikars live in buildings while the rest struggle in slums. If even 20 per cent of the 7 storeyed bldgs are redeveloped into towers, you will see a huge capacity inflow. But the SRA schemes will virtually treble the housing stock. So prices will crash since not everyone can afford the high prices. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 9:33am
A MASTERful trade  . Wish you many more in the future!------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 12:39pm
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Shivkumar: Do you have a view on Godrej Industries or are you staying purely with Mah. Life?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 12:59pm
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This is an Rd favourite company is sitting with property develoment rights and has a subsidiary value will be unlocked when that subs goes public!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 3:14pm
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Am not tracking Godrej industries, but yes its properties are huge. Vikhroli itself is a small town and Godrej can unlock huge value. The land is now out of the Urban Land Ceiling Act, so Godrej is free to develop it. But the only question: is there enough of a market for all the land being unlocked in Mumbai? To begin with the mainland across the sea is being opened up in a big way. Mukesh Ambani's twin SEZs are picking up huge tracts of land. And then in Mumbai itself, the city is soaring skywards with every building being planned is a 14-storeyed tower at least. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 3:26pm
If east<>west traffic routes are improved then I think there should not be too much of a problem. There's always a premium attached to living within Mumbai municipality area and being provided electricity by BES&T, something South Bombay takes for granted, but is a valued resource further North! ------------- |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 3:30pm
| The whole of Mumbai receives power from BEST, RIL or Tata Power. There is a very good chance that power supply in Navi Mumbai, Thane and Vasai-Virar areas may be franchised to private players in the coming months. Once that happens there wouldn't be much problems of power supply in the whole Mumbai Metropolitan region. |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 3:59pm
Load shedding in areas of Maharashtra, other than Mumbai, has nothing to do with who distributes the power. The state has a peak hour power shortfall of 4,500MW, so power cuts are inevitable. Privatisisng power distribution is not going to help Thane, Navi Mumbai & Vasai-Virar residents unless new generating capacity comes up.
Mumbai is insulated from the power-cuts because of commercial and political reasons. As long as this situation continues, Mumabi prioperty will continue to command a premium.
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Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 4:25pm
| govt got a franchising scheme going where private players can buy and distribute power and collect revenues. it is showing results in many places. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 6:17pm
Are you talking of Crompton Greaves and Nagpur? That's the only one I know of. Even that had to initially face some obstacles in the form of "MSEB" unions. And there's Torrent and Bhiwandi. ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 6:36pm
This is clearly not related to MahLife but getting into Bombay's potential  but anyway....Shivkumar, what is your opinion of the towers coming up in most of South and Central Bombay? The infrastructure will not cope after a point, be it water supply, waste disposal, electricity, commuting, parking. The mentality seems to be first build and simultaneously sell, and then let the purchasers struggle for amenities! A vast expanse of land has the potential to be developed with at least some semblance of town planning if the authorities are wise enough and suppress greed. As far as Navi Mumbai goes, unless that is totally self contained, both in terms of employees and employers, the commute during the monsoon may be interesting! ------------- |
Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 6:57pm
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Every infrastructures in Mumbai ares under severe stress. I still can't imagine how they cope up with such a huge demand of public services. Still people are added to the existing population of Mumbai due to various reasons & compulsion. This is the worst case of our urban planing. Each & every Mumbaiker want some solution but funny thing is that there is no solution to these problems.
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Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2008 at 12:11pm
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Actually, the SEZ projects undertaken by Mahindra Lifespaces addresses most of these urban development concerns! In Tamil Nadu MahLife has put up the SEZs with all the necessary infrastructure and after the companies have put down roots, the company is exploiting land on the periphery of the SEZs for residential purposes. There are plenty of short-term worries of course. For instance companies like Ford have huge manufacturing capacities at the Chennai SEZ. The IT SEZ could take a hit in the short-term as well. No wonder, management is wary of callling these projects as SEZs. These facilities are being promoted as integrated infrastructural facilities for manufacturing, IT, etc. For a long term investors, the stock has fallen to attractive levels. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2008 at 4:58pm
From http://valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyview.asp?str=12374 - valuresearchonline.com ------------- |
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Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2008 at 6:18pm
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Low debt is one of the attractions of the company. Moreover supply of land is assured since SEZ projects are undertaken in partnership with state governments. |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2009 at 7:03pm
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It has started to sink again after holding firm near 180-220 zone....is everything going alright with this company. ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2009 at 7:41pm
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I believe this is one of the 'safest' companies if you want to invest in Real Estate. What differentiaites it from others is strong and clean management( which becomes even more important after Satyam fiasco) and perhaps the only one with an Operational SEZ. They first created jobs via SEZ and after that only went on to realize further value by building residential units....that's actually thier philosphy and i like it... The low debt level ensures this company will definitely survive and continue to grow. I also think that the current emphasis on low cost housing of goverment is also a positive for MLL as it being present in some good Tier2 cities. I am not saying that it will not see slowdown, but it is one of the companies which can best manage it.
Sometime in December Arun Nanda had said that thier Jaipur SEZ is rocking and that they are not seeing any slowdown, if I am not wrong!!
I am not sure how low this can go...but will definitely survive as per current situation and will be big bagger when markets turnaround. I think if you want to bet on real estate sector, you should not miss this. Be ready to see lower levels but it has high probability of giving "decent" returns..
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Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2009 at 7:46pm
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I quoted Arun Nanda in previous append. I just found the link:
http://www.livemint.com/2008/11/17165104/No-slowdown-in-real-estate-pro.html - http://www.livemint.com/2008/11/17165104/No-slowdown-in-real-estate-pro.html
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Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2009 at 7:53pm
Bharti, could you please post the contents of the livemint piece? I'm having trouble getting it to open. Thanks! ------------- |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2009 at 8:00pm
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Here it is(Nov 17 2008):
New Delhi: Mahindra and Mahindra on Monday said there is no slowdown in its real estate projects, even though there is slump in demand.
“We are not slowing down on any of our projects. Jaipur is rocking, Chennai is doing well, city-based projects such as Faridabad are also doing well”, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd Executive Director Arun Nanda said on the sidelines of the India Economic Summit.
Fundamentals of real estate have not changed. Nanda said, adding there were no funding issues for its projects and the company’s affordable housing projects are not going to disappear.
“We have actually got cash in the bank”, he said, adding there is a huge demand in Rs30 to 40 lakh apartments segment. He, however, said the housing loan segment is facing problems and investors are not coming forward.
“Demand has been put on back-burner and interest rates are hurting people,” he said. Nanda also said that the group is awaiting Sebi approval for the initial public offering of Mahindra Holidays and Resorts Ltd. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2009 at 8:05pm
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Thanks! If they keep their focus on middle-class (affordable) projects, I'm sure they will do well. Look at the demand for MHADA flats in Bombay. ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2009 at 7:53pm
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More on MahLife & others http://moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=385158&special=highlights - here .
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Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2009 at 8:24pm
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The link given by Hitesh has the following comments from MotiLal Oswal. Motilal Oswal has maintained its buy rating on http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/constructioncontracting-civil/mahindra-lifespace-developers/MLD - Mahindra Lifespace , in its February 10, 2009 report. "We expect the entire future capex requirement at the Jaipur SEZ to be self financed through sale of processing area and the residential vertical. MLL has healthy balance sheet with net cash of Rs 200 million and has no major land out standings or debtors. This coupled with its strong management pedigree differentiates the company from its peers. MLIFE trades at a P/E of 7.4x its FY09E EPS of Rs 17 and a P/B of 0.6x its FY09E book value of Rs 220 per share." "We have lowered our NAV for MLIFE by 5.7% to Rs 590/sh from Rs 626/sh to account for lower realizations (Rs 2,500/sf v/s Rs 2,700/sf) for its residential project at the Chennai SEZ. Our NAV of Rs 590/sh is based on SOTP valuations: 1) Chennai SEZ at Rs 150/share, 2) Jaipur SEZ at Rs200/share, 3) Residential vertical at Rs 164/share and 4) cash/other rental assets at Rs 76/share. MLIFE is available at 76% discount to its NAV. Maintain Buy," says Motilal Oswal's research report ... Further, as per Motilal's projection , EPS is expected go up from 17 to 27.5 in FY10 - that's around 50-60% growth. |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2009 at 8:29pm
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There was another comment from Dipan Mehta yesterday on Real Estate companies and specific one including MLL and Peninsula: http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/news/fii-flow-to-stabilise-when-global-mkts-steady-dipan-mehta-/383299 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/news/fii-flow-to-stabilise-when-global-mkts-steady-dipan-mehta-/383299On real estate: |
Posted By: aloksahi1971
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2009 at 10:24am
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Mahindra lifespace is one of the fw companies that has not reduced the cost of the flats in its on going projects nor has resorted to freebies also the cost of the flats i.e the one comming up in Faridabad is head and shoulder above the rest. The Chennai buildings are also sold out also the Jaipur Sez is not dependent on the Govt for land aquisition and is hit with the jwellery crowd. ------------- Born To Golf forced to work. |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2009 at 10:27am
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Land for the Jaipur SEZ has already been tied up with the Rajasthan Industrial Development Authority. The state govt is a stake holder in the project. However the project has all the land it needs, but going by the Chennai project, the company may come up with a second phase where the govt may allot more land. Freehold land in the vicinity of the SEZ would be developed by the company for housing. Can anyone tell me if the company is taking black money from people who book houses? In Mumbai they don't. But one cannot say this about other centres. |
Posted By: aloksahi1971
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2009 at 10:52am
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No No Black Money.The Sylvian Country at Cheenai is sold out and a lot of people are looking at the next phase comming up. The Local station for the Mahindra world city build there if mind bogling!!! ------------- Born To Golf forced to work. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2009 at 10:56am
That's a really relevant question and the answer from Alok is reassuring. The black component causes a lot of problems for simple folk trying to take a loan. ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 13/Feb/2009 at 11:25am
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THe only fly in the ointment about the Motilal Oswal recommendation on Mahindra Lifespace is that the brokerage rates DLF as its top pick!
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Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 13/Feb/2009 at 11:32am
| One should use brokerage reports only for the data they can provide us. Their recommendations are usually swayed by extraneous considerations. Also analysts under pressure from their bosses tell us things between the lines which a sharp reader should learn to pick up. |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 14/Feb/2009 at 10:35pm
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True. There is no doubt about that.
I had a very meaningful & effective dialogue with one of the analyst regarding a stock. During the discussion, I had questioned him regarding rationale behind giving short term (three months) view/price of the stocks. He replied back with two genuine reasons: 1) While computing the future price of a stock, lot of assumptions are made which cannot hold good for one or two years or they don't see that much visibility for longer period 2) Investors are more concerned with stock price within a month or two. Most of them are not interested in long term prices. So we can't blame the analysts for all the wrong reasons. ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2009 at 3:22pm
The first argument is valid and so one year-targets are okay. The second is a chicken & egg type of situation with brokers clearly benefiting if clients churn frequently. So whether the investor or the broker is responsible for the quarterly fever is moot. ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2009 at 10:09am
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+25% ~10.35 am! I know Basantji doesn't like posts on price movements alone, but maybe there's someone who reads TED and has money to buy !------------- |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2009 at 9:12pm
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Arun Nanda bought a small quantity(20,000) of shares on 20th March 2009. http://nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/eod/takeover/eod_takeover_134.jsp?symbol=MAHLIFE&desc=Reg.13-SEBI%28Prohibition+of+Insider+Trading+Regulations%291992&annexure=13%284%29&tstamp=200320092038&oe=E&id=22211 - http://nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/eod/takeover/eod_takeover_134.jsp?symbol=MAHLIFE&desc=Reg.13-SEBI%28Prohibition+of+Insider+Trading+Regulations%291992&annexure=13%284%29&tstamp=200320092038&oe=E&id=22211
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Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2009 at 12:07pm
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Update - Arun Nanda had bought an additional small lot of MLL shares recently(around 7500). Results are on April 24, 2009. The share price has increased from 83(12th March' 09) to 180(13th April ' 09) in last one month. Lets see how much it reacts downwards if correction happens. I would take that as a further buying opportunity. The real estate companies are still not out of woods, but this is one company which will survive and will be outperformer in coming years, my personal opinion. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2009 at 9:47am
You can read the mind it seems!
 ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2009 at 12:01pm
Hitesh Sir...market ka mind padhiye not Basant Ji's...... 
And don't forget to let us know as well.
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Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2009 at 12:51pm
Woh post purana tha! Bhool jana, please  And which mind is easier to read? Market ji's or Basant ji's as of now?  ------------- |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2009 at 11:35pm
| Good point. I see you getting there though. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2009 at 1:38pm
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http://moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=395036&special=highlights - Source In order to follow uniform accounting policy for consolidation of the financials and to be in line with the parent company, the company has changed the method of charging depreciation from Written Down Value Method to Straight Line Method during the year. As a result of the change the depreciation charge is lower by Rs. 0.53 crores and depreciation charge of earlier years, amounting to Rs. 8.17 crores, has been reversed. ------------- |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 07/May/2009 at 11:59am
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Shiv and others who are following this stock, small query:
1)At SEZ, they must be leasing out the building space to companies at some rent/lease?? That is the income for the company. They may also make money for maintaining the facilities?? 2) Once they are through with the SEZ developments, what is the next/future plan other than the residential projects?? 3) Any updates on Thane and Pune SEZs? Will it come through (I mean no land acquisition problems??) While there is no debt for the company, ROE and ROCE are in single digits. Will it improve once they complete their SEZs. Both Sharekhan and MOST have predicted doubling of their EPS as well as stock price(infact trible here). Thanks in advance. ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 4:58pm
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Chinki has been quite accurate on this one. Once the SEZ is completed and leased out to private parties, Mahindra Lifespaces earns fees for services and maintenance from the companies. The company expects to increase the perimeter around the SEZ as it expects the facility to grow. For instance, in Chennai ML has tied up with Tamil Nadu government for additional land around the SEZ for Phase II of the project. Simultaneously, it is developing land around the SEZ to construct housing. The company already has land for the Thane SEZ and construction is beginning shortly. Land for Pune SEZ will be acquired by Maharashtra government. CIDCO has already earmarked the land and the process will begin after elections. There are some useful links here: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/the-sez-cash-cow/356939/ http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/results-boardroom/sezs-were-main-sourceq4-income-mahindra-lifespace/394942 |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 2:18am
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Request some insights from Basant and other seniors on some of the data about MLL: While Net operating profit per share has increased from Rs 23 odd in 04 to Rs 42 in 08 free reserves per share has gone up from RS 34.78 to Rs 183. Book Value has also gone up from RS 44.78 to Rs 209 in the same period. So obviously the company is growing at a fast clip. Debt - Equity ratio is 0.01. Profit margins are also quite high. So why is the ROCE in single digits? |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 9:18am
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I have zero idea on real estate companies but would repeat the same logic that I discussed with Chinki over phone.
COmpanies that develop properties are surrogate REITS. SO in a REIT we will make a 12%-15% CAGR and that would be the long term RoE but in a surrogate REIT we may get a situation where the Market Cap + Debt is almost half of the NAV of the company's assets and that creates the undervaluation.
So an investor should play for this undervaluation and once that gets covered he can sell out of the stock and get along into high RoE companies because in the long term shareholders will earn only that amount which the company can gainfully extract out of its capita and Retained earnings (RoE).
Though I am not sure about MLL but renting, property development etc are 12%-15% RoE businesses so in a year where you get a major part of construction getting completed the RoE and EPS will jump but then over alonger period of time parity will return.
It is always essential to value these companies as NAV vs. Mkt Cap + Debt and buy and sell accordingly.
Surely these are not buy and hold stocks.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 09/May/2009 at 12:09pm
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That's interesting. Been checking out on MLL's competitors and I see DLF trading at a slight premium to NAV! And no one is even looking at the debt on its books forget about the new loans being availed of by management! |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 09/May/2009 at 1:27pm
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I agree with valuing based on NAV. MLL also has best management( did not buy land banks at high rates in last couple of years, proven execution capabilities, zero debt levels, has an ability to leverage further to take advantage of coming upcycle, no equity dilution like Unitech needed etc..) so we can least expect things to go wrong in future in case of MLL compared to others . And note that NAV is variable. With upcycle coming, the NAV will only increase and its price will follow NAV..... |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2009 at 12:16pm
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Two months ago I had sent a query to Mahindra Lifespaces based on some posers by Chinki. Received a detailed reply this morning. Here are the edited transcripts: I need a few clarifications on the company after reading the transcripts of Mr Arun Nanda's interview in http://www.moneycontrol.com/ - www.moneycontrol.com ( http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/results-boardroom/sezs-were-main-sourceq4-income-mahindra-lifespace/394942 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/ 1. Now that the Chennai SEZ (first phase) is complete how will the company earn revenues from the project? Is there any recurring revenue stream for the company from the Chennai SEZ? How will revenues from existing Chennai SEZ grow in the coming years? Chennai MWC Project has both SEZ and Domestic Tariff area (DTA). The SEZ area has been fully leased out. The DTA industrial area already developed has been leased out and is being expanded. We are looking at further development contiguous to the existing park. This additional area as and when developed and leased would give us additional lease revenue. In addition, we have earmarked some land for retail development which is unsold. The retail strategy is under discussion. Going forward, the recurring revenue stream for both SEZ and DTA area would be Operation and Maintenance charges and water charges. Further, residential development will be undertaken by Mahindra Integrated Township Ltd a 74: 26 SPV between MLDL and MWCDL over the next 7/8 years. 2. When is the second phase of the Chennai SEZ coming through? Has the land been acquired for the same? Land procurement is in preliminary stage. It will take a year before we can start development.
3. Will the proposed Thane SEZ also follow the Chennai and Jaipur models? That is, construction of the SEZ followed by development of land nearby for residential purposes?
The R&D focused biotechnology SEZ project is spread over 52 acres. The development model here will be largely own-built, multi-tenanted blocks and Built-To-Suit facilities. There will be some element of non-processing activity as well, mainly residential.
We intend having close to 1 million sq ft of development, in the form of research laboratories, office space and other ancillary facilities like libraries, auditoria, business centres, etc, supported by residential, convenience shopping, and other related elements of social infrastructure.
4. I was running through the financials of the company with an analyst friend of mine and he was surprised at the ROE and ROCE still being in single digits. This when, brokerages like Motilal Oswal and others, expect the company's EPS to treble in the coming years. Could youenlighten us on why this is so? Usually companies with low debt and good growth rates have ROCE of 30 per cent or thereabouts.
The main business segment of the company is Projects, Project Management and Development, in which, the income accrues as per Percentage completion accounting on fulfilment of requirements under Indian GAAP. So the Revenue and result trend is not uniform over the years.
Over the last 4 years the Company’s EPS has grown at a CGR of 342%. The Company runs its SEZ business thru investment in Subsidiaries. The ROE and ROCE of Consolidated business gives a correct picture of the growth of the business of the company.
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Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2009 at 12:24pm
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Need the advice of Basant and other seniors. I have now tried to work out the ROCE of the company based on the consolidated figures available. Gross Profit for FY08 Rs 99 cr on a consolidated basis. With total shareholders funds at RS 863.75 cr ROCE was in the region of 11. FY09 would have seen a deterioration in fundamentals. Remains to be seen how the company can improve ROCE and ROE in the coming years. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2009 at 12:28pm
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Gross profit and sh funbds does not give RoCE. Try working with np and sh funds for RoE and Op Profit and cap emp for RoCE. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2009 at 5:34pm
| In that case ROCE for FY 09 is around 7! Capital Employed (consolidated) is Rs 934 cr of which Rs 244 cr remains unallocated. Net Profit (cons) is Rs 66 cr. |
Posted By: praveen
Date Posted: 09/Jul/2009 at 6:00pm
My two paisa input,
If you are looking to finetune you can remove the 244 cr from the capital employed figure. Also adjust the net-profit for post tax net interest income earned from that unutilized 244 crs.
Also do it for multiple years to check for any 1 time events. Also remember certain businesses/projects have long gestation period before they start throwing significant returns... (think of trees as an example) so you might want to adjust for any capital which is employed towards such projects.
------------- The quest for knowledge is a never ending Journey |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 25/Jul/2009 at 11:51pm
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Conservative land buys helped margins: Mah Lifespaces Q: Your numbers beat a lot of street estimates, profit at Rs 10 crore, topline at about Rs 48 crore was flat, take us through the entire quarter and the segmental breakup between your luxury segments and your other segments? A: The good news is that instead of all that happening in the real estate industry, we have been able to show a slight growth in the profits and that’s what is satisfying as far as I am concerned. We see a pickup in the flats that we sold, which was a reasonable number of flats in the last quarter. People who were in a wait and watch mode have now decided to buy, we are seeing a lot more conversions which were waiting around. The other thing is that our conservatism has helped because we did not buy land at ridiculous prices. So we are still able to maintain our margins. If you look at the numbers, you will see that the operating profits has shown a considerable growth in numbers, its the other income which has come down and that’s why the profit is only 7% higher. Q: How are you looking at the sales on the residential front for the rest of FY10 or atleast for the current quarter, do you think it will be an improvement on the first quarter? A: As we have maintained, we don’t give any futuristic statements. Q: I am expecting you to say about qualitative guidance? A: The qualitative guidance is that we are definitely seeing more conversions in the apartment sales and residential sides; we are not seeing a pickup in the commercial side but on the residential side where we focus. For example at Goregaon, we launched, the first phase which we launched we sold all of it and we are actually going to launch a second phase now, similarly we are seeing growth in Bhandup, Faridabad is doing reasonably well, so we are seeing increases. Q: A word on pricing this quarter has there been any reductions because a lot of premium segment players have cut their prices by about 30%, what’s your outlook? A: We are not in the super-premium segment, if you were to ask me what is it, I would say that prices are about 5-7% lower than what they were in the last year but we have really not dropped prices but I would say that 5-7% lower than what we got a the peak. ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 21/Aug/2009 at 5:26pm
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Any news on this stock / company ?
------------- |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 26/Oct/2009 at 8:01pm
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Q2 results:
Sales have doubled, operating profit up by almost 4.5 times YoY.
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/announcement/Mahindra_Lifespace_Developers_Ltd1_261009_Rst.pdf - http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/announcement/Mahindra_Lifespace_Developers_Ltd1_261009_Rst.pdf
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Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 26/Oct/2009 at 8:07pm
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A very recent interview with CEO of MLDL.
http://www.indiainfoline.com/Research/LeaderSpeak/Default.aspx?ReportNo=634 - http://www.indiainfoline.com/Research/LeaderSpeak/Default.aspx?ReportNo=634
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Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 13/Nov/2009 at 8:45pm
| http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/news/mahindra-lifespace-putsnew-residential-project-_424735.html%20 - Mahindra Lifespace puts up new residential project |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 21/Jan/2010 at 10:39pm
| Another good quarter! Motilal maintains Buy(their current NAV estimate is at 511) |
Posted By: Prasham
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2010 at 11:11am
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What should be a 3 year target for this company?
CMP is 370 ------------- |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2010 at 11:26am
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Rs 10,000 /-
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Posted By: Vrishali
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2010 at 1:07pm
is that projection for share price or for per square inch rate of their mumbai real estate  ------------- "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes little sense for those who know what they're doing." - Warren Buffet |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2010 at 1:45pm
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just picked a figure out of thin air ..................and don't doubt it........this is the final figure and a round number.
Will surely achieve it no doubt in my mind meet me in three years
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Posted By: studentoflife
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2010 at 6:55am
| How did the reserves of this company increase so drastically in the last couple of years ? |
Posted By: Prasham
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2010 at 11:03am
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Any updates worth noting? ------------- |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 08/Apr/2010 at 7:34pm
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Mahindra Lifespaces flying.. i am surprised no other member brought it up.. found no news other than that the company is meeting on so and so date to consider dividend etc...
Although a great long term bet and one of the best to have in the real estate sector... too bad i didnt pick up more than i did!!!
------------- |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 08/Apr/2010 at 9:25pm
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At least Mahindras can be trusted to add value for shareholders and not cheat shareholders by siphoning off funds as can be done easily in a real estate company,which happened in one of my investments.
------------- Ajith |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 08/Apr/2010 at 1:59am
| Most analysts have been negative on real estate. Still this company is up 6 times fom its lows of Rs 80 odd and is still trading below its estimated NAV of around 500 ( Motilal estimates in Mar 2009) ! |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2011 at 11:15pm
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Motilal estimates of current NAV is around 600. Balance sheet is clean, good management(although not very agressive). Estimate of Rs 40 as EPS for next FY by Motilal.
Also, I think there will be a gradual shift towards 'quality' housing, it has already started happening in places like Noida with people really starting to focus on builder quality and reputation , this Mahindra company should be a beneficiary if that trend gains momentum, if India continues to grow and grow. Flats of reputed builders in Noida currently sell at 20-30% premium compared to other builders in same area , same locality.
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Posted By: manishwithted
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2011 at 4:12pm
well said. Most of the builders are cheaters and in a scenario like this i also feel Mahindras and tatas will command a premium. I feel management not being aggressive is a good quality for real estate at least in present scenario. I feel Mahindra is available at reasonable valuations now. However, i am waiting for a further drop ( may or may not happen) ------------- Long term thinking improves short term decision making - Brian Tracy |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2011 at 4:17pm
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the real gem lies in the company's subsidiaries - the mahindra world cities. The management has played its cards very nicely by tying up with state governments to develop properties that have already been acquired. The company has also not hesitated in exiting projects where there is a question mark over land acquisition. That is the biggest example of its prudence. |
Posted By: bihisello
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 12:02pm
My broker was more positive on Anant Raj saying it also had very low debt. Now, Tehelka! |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 12:20pm
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it looks like it is foregone conclusion that we won't get clean real estate play ever.. I'm betting on Godrej Prop. due to its own land. I was thinking of adding Mahindra due to cleaner image. Anant raj is a real shocker..it appeared to be cleaner and had conservative approach. don't know how to judge these managements ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: barla
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 12:27pm
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This is the error people make on godrej properties. It has hardly any land. The land is owned by the other godrej companies. Special purpose vehicles ahve been created in which the land owner and godrej properties ahve defined stake. Godrej properties then develops the land and the profits are divided proportionate to the sahre in the said SPV.
It is so compliacted i do not think an outsdier can value the holdings. There are more than 10 SPVs already in place. And they also want to get outside investors to invest in some of the SPVs.
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Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 3:37pm
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well if you don't believe me then lets believe the market. It would almost be 1 year of listing and it has always traded premium to its NAV. Even current NAV of 573 is below CMP. This is not complicated as it made out to be. What I have understood till now is all land is owned by either Godrej & Boyce or Godrej Ind.. It has been articulated that all land holdings by group will be developed by Godrej Prop. so in a sense raw material is assured. A real estate company pays hard cash for acquiring land but here it pays profit share which is biz model exactly. String of agreements between grp companies are done to protect minorities in each of these companies. You can't even think of doubting their dealings.
Reason for so many SPVs in real estate/infra sector is well known. If you sell stake at SPV level you only pay capital gains tax but if you sell apartments etc you actually pay income tax(31%). Most of the PE investors in Godrej prop are marquee names including extensive involvement by HDFC. I would remain bullish.
------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: barla
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 12:10pm
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So how does it become the best real estate play when it does not own property. It will be the land owners who make the money. This is just a construciton company. Teh land owner will decide whether he wants to sell or not.
I have never doubted the group, credentials or the prospects of the Company.
I only doubted the rationale of buying Godrej properties as a real estate play.
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Posted By: manishwithted
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 9:31am
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GODREJ PROP if the company owns so much land, why are the sales declining yoy , the sales have not increased since last 3 years. the PE multiple is very high on ttm basis. owning land at prime location is a big positive but what is stopping the company in developing the property ,selling it and improving sales. Mahindra lifespace - the sales are increasing yoy, the promoters are good and hence we can be optimistic of a good management, the PE is also less on ttm basis. Company is DEBT FREE . ------------- Long term thinking improves short term decision making - Brian Tracy |
Posted By: barla
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 10:19am
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Arre bhai, godrej properties hardly owns any land.
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Posted By: manishwithted
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2011 at 2:55pm
that makes it even more expensive at current valuations. ------------- Long term thinking improves short term decision making - Brian Tracy |
Posted By: barla
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2011 at 6:28pm
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At last soemone who will bite the bullet. Have alwasy wanted to know how a company like Godrej properties is valued. HAve posted earlier also on how to value Godrej companies.
Manishji now that you have said it is expensvie at current valuations would you be kind enough to elaborate on your calculations. Basis for coming to the conclusion that it is expensive.
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Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2011 at 10:49pm
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FutureBull, That is why I have not really invested in real estate companies for the past 16 years.Very easy and tempting to fool investors. I invested in a great real estate company 19 years ago at the right time and lost money. If they just maintained their business it would have been at least a 100 bagger for me by now. Too greedy in every way. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2011 at 11:23pm
well, sales for 9 months up by 100% yoy and profits up by 24% due to conservative accounting. Sales gets accounted by % completion method but costs as and when incurred. Better to look at yrly figures for infra/RE players for good comparison. As per my estimate profits would be up by at least 50% in this year.. at current execution rate and planned rate profits would be at least 3-5 times current rate in 3 yrs
------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: manishwithted
Date Posted: 21/Feb/2011 at 1:09pm
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[QUOTE=barla] At last soemone who will bite the bullet. Have alwasy wanted to know how a company like Godrej properties is valued. HAve posted earlier also on how to value Godrej companies.
Manishji now that you have said it is expensvie at current valuations would you be kind enough to elaborate on your calculations. Basis for coming to the conclusion that it is expensive.
[QUOTE=manishwithted] [QUOTE=barla]
Godrej Prop - CMP 592 At consolidated level FY 10 - for 12 m sales - 313.4 cr , EPS 19.50 FY 11 - for 9m sales - 123.5 cr ( 41.1 + 34.3 + 48.1 ), EPS 10.13 ( 3.2 + 4.71 + 2.22) Assuming an EPS of 14 for FY 11 , PE comes to 42 which is pretty high in my opinion and if the company doesnt own any land then it makes it worse. Most of the companies follow % completion method as revenue recognition. The developer generally sells at least 30 % of the project before starting construction. So for example if the project is 30 % complete the actual cost incurred are for that 30 % construction and then the company will recognize revenue equal to 30 % of the total revenue. So i dont feel Godrej is accounting for higher costs and lesser rev. Please correct me if I am wrong. Mahindra Lifespace : CMP - 345 On standalone basis ( could not find consolidated qtrly results) FY 10 - for 12 m sales - 417.8 cr , EPS 18.93 FY 11 - for 9m sales - 312.6 cr ( 67.9 + 88.9 + 155.8 ), EPS 17.75 ( 3.54 + 6.04 + 8.17) So Mahindra lifespace is trading at a much lower PE. Also as per an article in Outlook profit latest edn OBEROI REALTY seems to be a good buy. The share is currently trading at 233 - below its IPO price of 260. As per the company and as mentioned in the magazine, the cost of acquistion of land is low for the comapny and the land can last for about 5 yrs. The company has got land holdings in and around Mumbai. It is planning to extend its presence in other major cities provided it gets land at reasonable price. The company is open to work with the land owners and as per management, they are in a better position becoz in times of crisis they can reduce the prices of the property as their cost of acquisition of land is low. 6 m EPS is 9.6 and the share currently seems to be available at reaonable valuations. Also the company has 861 Cr of IPO proceeds left for deployment. The company is DEBT FREE. Comments please. DISC : I dont own any of the above stocks. was waiting for Mahindra lifespace to fall below 300 , didnt happen  . Have not carried out detail research on above companies. Above data is from BSE. ------------- Long term thinking improves short term decision making - Brian Tracy |
Posted By: barla
Date Posted: 21/Feb/2011 at 2:03pm
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Manishji simple and straigh forward.
The complication comes on how to value the agreements with Godrej industries that godrej properties has. Link is here http://www.indiabusinessview.com/news/825/godrej-uses-llp-structure-real-estate-spv - http://www.indiabusinessview.com/news/825/godrej-uses-llp-structure-real-estate-spv
The comparision with oberoi is very apt. You know oberoi hit the goldmine when they bought ciba property at goregaon some 8-9 years back. Paid peanuts for it.
They developed the land sold a part of it. Are still developing it. And now own the mall and the huge building which has the Westin hotel etc. The mall and the tall building housing the hotel have not been sold. Rental income now is higher than what they paid for the land about 9 years back.
Same thing is happening with godrej properties. the thing is they own ten times the land oberoi has at goregaon. If they sell a part and retain a part to lease it out we have a goldmine here.
So we are getting a chance to invest at the start of this cycle.
THE BIG PROBLEM IS GODREJ IS KEEPING THE WHOLE MASTERPLAN SECRET. THEY GIVE INPUTS ON SOME SPV, BUT ARE NOT GIVING US INPUT ON THE WHOLE PLAN. SOME COMPNAY IS GOING TO HIT THE ROOF VALUATION WISE. WHICH COMPANY IS IT GOING TO BE.
Also remember that they have to keep a succession plan in place. The tow brothers running the company are in their 60s. With a totla of 5 legal heirs. There are some other small trusts also involved. Maybe it is thus which is keeping the whole thing a litttle quiet..
Incidentally Godrej already has a top end hospital and school running in their Vikhroli property. They have also rented out a large portion of the property.
Godrej Proeprties already has its construciton busniess that is makig money, figures of which are easily available.
Godrej Industires and other Godrej companies have their business that is making money.
Point is how do we value the land. What are they planning to do wiht it. How have they decided to split the business with the next generation.
How are we to value this company. There is no doubt that these companies are a real godlmine.
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Posted By: manishwithted
Date Posted: 21/Feb/2011 at 4:48pm
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barlaji Appreciate your comments above. yr understanding of the sector is definitely much better than mine. I agree totally with you that it is not possible to value Godrej basis certain unknown / unclear factors. If a company has got a large land bank it is definitely a positive and the company can be given a SLIGHTLY higher PE than the competitors. Just because a company has a large land bank, though it is definitely a big positive but it doesnt mean that it will transfer the advantages to the shareholders. Also to grow fast they will need to develop more no. of properties and sell more which should ultimately reflect in earnings. I would like to review the companies on earnings basis rather than on book value ( NAV ) basis. As you said Godrej prop do not own land, that means the land is with other Godrej group companies. So why would the other Godrej group company transfer the advantages of low cost of land ownership to Godrej properties. That will be unfair to the shareholders of the company holding the land. Most likely the deal will be done on or near market value or on revenue sharing basis. As an investor, I would look at the past earnings and the expected growth in earnings to make a decision. In assessing the growth rate i would prefer to be on the safe side and cannot assume exponential growth for these companies unless i have strong reasons for same. ------------- Long term thinking improves short term decision making - Brian Tracy |
Posted By: iOmkar
Date Posted: 14/Nov/2011 at 6:23pm
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Any one still tracking this. Results have been good but the stock has moved south. I do understand sentiment is very negative for real estate stocks.
I hold a few with 20 % loss. I would have sold out had the performance been bad. But is it woth keeping it for a time frame of 2-3 years.
Please do share your thoughts.
Thanks and Regards
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Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 14/Nov/2011 at 11:34pm
| sentiment regarding real estate is poor, so the stock is getting hammered. looking ahead, mumbai market is stressed with fewer sales, so there could be problems for all players. i am told that MLL has sold most of its stock in mumbai. |
Posted By: vineetb
Date Posted: 13/Feb/2012 at 12:05pm
| This one looks like a dark horse in the realty space. Results have been good. Good balance sheet as well. The company has been paying higher dividends over last 5 years. Mahindra group company, so governance is also taken care of. I think it could do well over the next few years. Realty plays will good corporate govenance like Mahindras, Godrejs and Tatas(not listed) could emerge as new theme over next few years. |
Posted By: oakleysunglasse
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2016 at 7:18am
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As
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