It is amazing to me, that people are selling off their stocks in a frenzy such as they are presently. The clever people already sold off long back, markets fell and now they would be looking to buy back at even cheaper prices such as represented now. What is the point of selling now, i dont understand, no doubt, one can make 10-20-30 percent by shorting, but one also risks going out of the stock altogether. So if there is a stock one believes in, but just to be able to participate , one things he/she should go short and buy back again, it could be a risky proposition.

With everyone shorting and being succesful at it, i think we are at very risky stage and market is going to punish this frenzy for sure.. possibly in the coming days.

 

I have noted that when we hit the october lows, mid/small caps were at certain lows, but now we have not yet hit the lows, but mid/small caps (many of them) are at even lower volumes and on a consistent day to day basis ( as opposed to one or two panic day sessions).

 

Further, people are selling off or punishing stocks that are actually showing better results than expected, some are showing better results , than would be expected in bull markets (ex. idea cellular, rallis india with 50 % QoQ ).

 

One needs to be very careful at this stage.. either you believe in the stocks you have, or you dont, and if you do, its best to be in them and not try to play games... of coarse, this is my humble opinion.

 

I am not trying to time the market, but i have doubled the size of my portfolio (capital invested wise) and also, have taken out the bad eggs (the ones in my opinion that were the bad eggs in my basket) and converted them into better performing stocks (historically) as its a good time to reshuffle i would say.

 

All graphs, and phases represented are based on historic happenings. It would be futile to forget that the recent upmove to 21000 sensex is unrepresented in history and hence what happens after that, is also unrepresented and hence it would be in my opinion a situation, where , the present is actually unchartered territory , and hence cannot be represented by looking into the past.

 

What if , we are in the bull run, but this is a major correction, which will lead upto even higher levels (timing is of coarse the question mark here).

No doubt FIIs left and state of economic affairs are not so great, but then, this coud all be just a cleaning up situation, where when the real bull run starts, it would be based on an even cleaner chit.

 

I was not bullish at all last year or year preceding that, as i thought that the bull run was going on like crazy with no regard to circumstances, but at these levels and all the cleaning up going on, i think we are going to soon have real good reasons for a bull run.

 

or maybe, i am just crazy?!?