Where are we currently?
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Printed Date: 20/Apr/2025 at 6:24am
Topic: Where are we currently?
Posted By: kulman
Subject: Where are we currently?
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2008 at 10:38am
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Look at the graphic carefully.... identify the current position! http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AAp_NMX5R5k/SUQEBKkD2nI/AAAAAAAAABk/Dtij91V5bAc/s1600-h/bubble-psychology.jpg">  Cast your votes NOW! ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Replies:
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2008 at 10:52am
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Chief Election Commisioner Sir: I have voted! May the others contribuet also....------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2008 at 11:08am
"New Paradigm".. 
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Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2008 at 11:53am
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This poll was a nice idea, i have also voted.
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 12:01pm
Voted elsewhere in the forum but "DESPAIR" 
------------- |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 12:13pm
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Voted in DESPAIR or was despair the option in which you voted?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 1:43pm
Sorry for the lack of clarity. I meant I voted for the "Despair" phase. So, I'm bullish and putting my money where my mouth is.------------- |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 1:48pm
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Just ensure that you have a backup mouth, coz it could get wiped out in the next crash 
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 1:58pm
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Voted. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 2:13pm
My dentures are in the glass by the bedside! ------------- |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 2:21pm
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 4:10pm
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Those who haven't yet voted, please do so as soon as possible. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AAp_NMX5R5k/SUQEBKkD2nI/AAAAAAAAABk/Dtij91V5bAc/s1600-h/bubble-psychology.jpg"> ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 5:46pm
ha ha ha!!!On a serious note, I sincerely hope you are incorrect on this one. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: catcall
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2008 at 8:31pm
Voted ------------- There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 11:27am
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Not many people have voted. Not even 1%. Okay, here's a warning: If you do not vote before Christmas, instead of goodies, Santaclaus may come with margin calls to you. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 11:48am
Voted on 2nd or 3rd day. Many could not decided where they are. Even I am not sure because market is oscillating between fear & despair so frequently that we could not make out that particular process end. I voted for capitulation. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 11:51am
Yeah....oscillating wildly. Out of fear, I voted for 'fear'. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AAp_NMX5R5k/SUQEBKkD2nI/AAAAAAAAABk/Dtij91V5bAc/s1600-h/bubble-psychology.jpg"> ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2008 at 12:34pm
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So, you are the other one beside me who voted for fear, Kuman jee. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2008 at 1:07pm
Voting for fear (afraid of losing what they have) means you are better off than those who voted for despair (lost everything, nothing left to lose). ------------- |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2008 at 2:00pm
Actually Hitesh jee...by that explanation I would fall more in the despair column. But hope is the catalyst. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2008 at 10:40am
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Compare these two cycles..... http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AAp_NMX5R5k/SUQEBKkD2nI/AAAAAAAAABk/Dtij91V5bAc/s1600-h/bubble-psychology.jpg"> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Oil-futures-tumble-10-end/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA269026%2D1CAA%2D4CE8%2D96BD%2D590424D90D63%7D - http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Oil-futures-tumble-10-end/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA269026%2D1CAA%2D4CE8%2D96BD%2D590424D90D63%7D">  Does anyone have contact details of that visionary Goldman analyst? ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2008 at 10:45am
He was trying to tell us USD 20 but we were all blind & deaf in light & sound of bull market so we saw & heard it as USD 200.
 |
Posted By: Janak.merchant1
Date Posted: 19/Dec/2008 at 11:50pm
Dear Mr. Kulman,
Mere jaise member ke liye aur ek option u shud keep.
" Don't really know where v really stand"
Best wishes,
JM ------------- I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money. |
Posted By: vijaygawde
Date Posted: 19/Dec/2008 at 11:56pm
Same Goldman (or is it God Man?) had predicted crude touching USD 200 before dropping one zero from the projected price.
 ------------- Diversification is protection against ignorance, it makes little sense for those who know what they’re doing. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 19/Dec/2008 at 11:36am
Mr. JM Noted. In the next poll, will keep such an option. A bit out of context, here's a hilarious take on 'can't say'.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 08/Jan/2009 at 8:49am
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I have this dreaded feeling that the lone voter under the category "Bull Trap" could probably be right.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2009 at 3:52pm
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Who knows! We are in a bear market and I already bought.
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Posted By: rakeshmehta48
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2009 at 8:34pm
I saw this thread today only.
Anyhow not scared of margin calls.
Voting now.
------------- Fund Management is Most Important |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2009 at 9:59am
Garry sa'ab, aur kitna maroge? ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 25/Jan/2009 at 8:56am
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http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AAp_NMX5R5k/SUQEBKkD2nI/AAAAAAAAABk/Dtij91V5bAc/s1600-h/bubble-psychology.jpg"> I got an e-mail from a friend with these questions....... Are we still in fear stage? Would there be a possibility of Capitulation in near future? Possible in individual stocks. Index may not move down in the same proportion. Will the Despair stage coincide with general elections? ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 26/Jan/2009 at 2:58pm
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If i were to stick my neck out and make a call, which by itself is not scientific, but more so as a personal feeling.. and strictly from the graph represented, i would have to say that we are somewhere within capitulation and fear at this stage.
It is amazing to me, that people are selling off their stocks in a frenzy such as they are presently. The clever people already sold off long back, markets fell and now they would be looking to buy back at even cheaper prices such as represented now. What is the point of selling now, i dont understand, no doubt, one can make 10-20-30 percent by shorting, but one also risks going out of the stock altogether. So if there is a stock one believes in, but just to be able to participate , one things he/she should go short and buy back again, it could be a risky proposition.
With everyone shorting and being succesful at it, i think we are at very risky stage and market is going to punish this frenzy for sure.. possibly in the coming days.
I have noted that when we hit the october lows, mid/small caps were at certain lows, but now we have not yet hit the lows, but mid/small caps (many of them) are at even lower volumes and on a consistent day to day basis ( as opposed to one or two panic day sessions).
Further, people are selling off or punishing stocks that are actually showing better results than expected, some are showing better results , than would be expected in bull markets (ex. idea cellular, rallis india with 50 % QoQ ).
One needs to be very careful at this stage.. either you believe in the stocks you have, or you dont, and if you do, its best to be in them and not try to play games... of coarse, this is my humble opinion.
I am not trying to time the market, but i have doubled the size of my portfolio (capital invested wise) and also, have taken out the bad eggs (the ones in my opinion that were the bad eggs in my basket) and converted them into better performing stocks (historically) as its a good time to reshuffle i would say.
All graphs, and phases represented are based on historic happenings. It would be futile to forget that the recent upmove to 21000 sensex is unrepresented in history and hence what happens after that, is also unrepresented and hence it would be in my opinion a situation, where , the present is actually unchartered territory , and hence cannot be represented by looking into the past.
What if , we are in the bull run, but this is a major correction, which will lead upto even higher levels (timing is of coarse the question mark here).
No doubt FIIs left and state of economic affairs are not so great, but then, this coud all be just a cleaning up situation, where when the real bull run starts, it would be based on an even cleaner chit.
I was not bullish at all last year or year preceding that, as i thought that the bull run was going on like crazy with no regard to circumstances, but at these levels and all the cleaning up going on, i think we are going to soon have real good reasons for a bull run.
or maybe, i am just crazy?!?  ------------- |
Posted By: MissingLink
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2009 at 8:43pm
Source: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/2009-cb-0126200828.gif - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/2009-cb-0126200828.gif Compared to 1920's recession, looks like we are in fear stage. ------------- Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Not Matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thats what you are seeking. -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2009 at 7:58am
The very fact that we are using the 1920 depression data as the benchmark for comparision and not any other smaller bear phase, by itself is good enough to tell you what the current perception in the world is!  ------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2009 at 10:14am
And if there is absolute pessimism, Mr. Market might just.... ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2009 at 7:53am
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Something to think about.... http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AAp_NMX5R5k/SW4wrX8K7ZI/AAAAAAAAACM/OtpgUG2GdmI/s1600-h/12+market+chorus.JPG">  ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 7:38am
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Here's another depiction of market cycles.... ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 8:47am
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Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 9:05am
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Sleeping or dead?
------------- |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 9:26am
| Castrated |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 9:43am
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ha ha, nice pic! I think its gone into a coma, will wake up after a few years(hopefully!) ------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: rakeshmehta48
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 10:36am
New kid, Dr Obama, is performing the surgery. Hope he may succeed in few years time.
------------- Fund Management is Most Important |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 10:38am
Initial tests suggest that the bull was full of .... bull. ------------- |
Posted By: rakeshmehta48
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 10:39am
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54% votes for despair + capitulation.
I feel, we have not reached the capitulation stage.
My vote was for bull trap. ------------- Fund Management is Most Important |
Posted By: rakeshmehta48
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 10:42am
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Hitesh bhai,
aap ka msg. mere upar se nikal gaya.
bull was full of........ What? ------------- Fund Management is Most Important |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 10:57am
I see.... http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AAp_NMX5R5k/SUQEBKkD2nI/AAAAAAAAABk/Dtij91V5bAc/s1600-h/bubble-psychology.jpg"> A small query: Have we seen en masse mutual redemptions by retail investors yet? ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: rakeshmehta48
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 11:13am
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The chart looks great, but are we already thro the "blow off stage" My guess is "no"
As for "en masse mutual redemptions by ratail investors yet" my guess is again "no" though I may be wrong here. You may kindly enlighten me on this.
In any case, capitulation seems bit away to me. ------------- Fund Management is Most Important |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 11:37am
Rakeshji, this was my attempt at a joke !See, bull run we all know. But in slang, bull also means nakli or untrue. So, I meant that this bull run was (at least towards the end) filled more with hope or false expectation rather than anything real. That is why the bull (run) had to die or go into coma or collapse. ------------- |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2009 at 11:52am
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From whatever i have seen or heard, the answer is a big NO. Most of the funds are sitting on lot of cash position, which they got into thinking there would be lot of redemption pressure, but not many have started pulling out yet. A MF agent whom i know was telling me the other day that people are actually still(!!!) putting in money - he hasnt seen much difference between his turnover 6 months ago and now. So we are far from capitulation, people still buying means long way to go. Another indicator which i use, based on my own experience during the crash of 2001, is my own self interest - though i have stopped logging on to my moneycontrol portfolio and news updates, i still am reading ET, watching CNBC every now and then, and logging onto TED. As things become worse, people tend to start losing interest to track news stories, so this stops. And when i stop logging onto TED(or not having any interest to do so), that would probably indicate the lows of the low!
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2009 at 12:02pm
What is left to redeem? Keep in mind, small investors are allergic to booking losses. So lack of redemption may just mean that the train has left the station! The current tax-laws also don't favour redeeming at a loss on long-term equity or equity MFs. I agree that a slowdown in inflows may be more relevant. ------------- |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 23/Feb/2009 at 10:22am
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Talking of cycles, click http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1099&KW=liquid+stages+life+markets&PID=101073#101073 - here for 4 liquid stages in life & markets.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 27/Feb/2009 at 6:46am
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 7:59pm
------------- |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 8:01pm
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Interestingly, we were polling on this thread just about 3 months back.. how quickly opinions and sentiment has changed.. its amazing! ------------- |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 8:07pm
| new paradigm!!!!!!!!!! |
Posted By: jain208
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 8:15pm
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new paradigm... ------------- ======================================= The more it changes, the more it’s the same thing. |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 8:23pm
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My own opinion......
DELUSION !!!
 ------------- |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 8:37pm
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Unfortunately there is no option for greed or delusion. |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 26/May/2009 at 8:51pm
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Yesterday i met one lady who told me u should buy ULIP and start investing as the market is now very good.
Plus i was calling phone banking number of my bank and the guy on the other end was telling me it is the right time to start investing as the market has recoverd!!!!!!!! so i should opt for the SIP plan he was offering me. Now i am really getting scared |
Posted By: babysohigh202
Date Posted: 26/May/2009 at 9:36am
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that's really cool! ------------- http://www.dvdcollects.com/products/Lost-Season-1-4-DVD-Boxset-DVDS-1389.html - Lost dvd |
Posted By: valuepicks
Date Posted: 27/May/2009 at 4:54pm
ha ha ha... that's a nice one chimak!
Time to SELL!! :-)
|
Posted By: SVMK
Date Posted: 27/May/2009 at 10:38pm
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hi guys, buy bharti now a good bet for short term target 850
------------- SVMK |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 27/May/2009 at 11:37pm
| SVMK, please stop selling ULIPs to Chimak |
Posted By: vijaygawde
Date Posted: 27/May/2009 at 6:36am
Are we at Enthusiasm phase already ? ------------- Diversification is protection against ignorance, it makes little sense for those who know what they’re doing. |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2009 at 9:35am
------------- |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2009 at 9:39am
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Last night, I was doing the last bit of thinking before going to sleep and had a thought, which seemed kind of interesting. If one were to look at the bigger picture and look at the whole bull run from 2004 to 2008, and the correction from FEB to March as the dip and the rally from april to now as the 'bull trap' .......
What if 21000 was the new paradigm, 15000-? , the stage where it says 'return to normal'....
Kind of fits the above graph so far.... now the only stage left to be completed is fear and capitulation and the above graph will be proven correct....!!!
------------- |
Posted By: catcall
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2009 at 9:41am
I think you are right!  ------------- There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing! |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2009 at 10:07am
| IMO buy value and sell hysteria. Try to avoid moves in between. |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2009 at 10:43am
Makes sense in theory, but there distinct way of knowing what is value and what is hysteria at a particular time.... it can only be determined in hindsight, but by then the opportunity is gone! ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 1:51pm
So ~8k twice wasn't the bottom? Why don't you put a figure & date so that your position is clear? Is that reasonable? ------------- |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 3:06pm
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Am not implying that 8k was not the bottom nor that i myself know what is going on (obviously i dont).... was merely mentioning an interpretation of the graph and that the possibility was there.. however distant from reality as it may seem at this time.... after all, it is the stock market....ANYTHING is possible. ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 3:12pm
Dang! And I was going to make bandobast for more cash to load up  ------------- |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 3:16pm
Either way, i do think, that patience and not being in a hurry to move into market at this time, will pay off in the coming months. So, while bandobast for more cash may not be the order of the day, holding onto cash may just prove to be beneficial over the coming months.
I am not sure whether one should cash out but i am sure that this is a wrong entry point.. basically.
sometimes more money can be made in the stock market, by staying OUT of it.
 ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 3:42pm
I have tried to start a conversation about profit-booking, not just for these times but as a discipline. But I didn't find too many takers.
There's an immense difference between viewing the current time as an entry point versus cashing out. It is important to note the difference. ------------- |
Posted By: dr.sandip
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 11:26pm
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Well, Hitesh sir, I think profit booking should only be partial , may be u can liquidate 20-25% of yr holdings if u are sitting on very good profits, at this stage of the market. What is your take sir ?? Regards Sandip ------------- Anything is possible because Everything is possible... |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 6:13am
and more money can be lost staying out of it. ------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 8:14am
True....no denying...It works either way... one has to make the move and then see what happens...as only probabaly weeks after a move has been made, will the results be known and the results could prove negative or positive... its a chance one has to take....if one feels like it. ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 9:34am
Well, those who feel they know enough to time the markets, should go right ahead ..... and reap the results. Such matters are a matter of personal belief and situation and do not merit generalization.
&
George Soros ------------- |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 10:08am
How does one lose money by staying out?
Except for the envy factor of my neighbour minted money in the market...
|
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 10:17am
Ask anyone who was in cash while the sensex went from 8000 to 14000. ------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 10:23am
Isn't that enough ?------------- |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 11:58am
That's true.
I wouldn't have liked to be in that set. |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 4:13pm
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Eventually, to have made money in the market,one has to cash out.. rest everything is notional.... notional profit and notional loss. Timing the market is impossible and if someone could time the market, he would be the richest man on earth, but in the end, whether timing is correct or not, if one does not physically book profits, then what is the point !
There would be noone, including me in the stock market, who does not want to realize the full potential of his stock before he pulls out, everyone wants to make more profit than he/she maybe presently be getting, that is but obvious.
As for people who were sitting on cash when sensex went from 8000 to 14000, there would be another set of people who were in cash, when sensex went from 21000 to 8000.
This goes to show that the game plays both ways, sensex levels maybe whatever they are, the only true winner is one whose net worth is increasing and his bank balance is getting thicker on a CONSISTENT basis.
The catch word here is consistent as i am not talking about one time lucky bets.
But each one to his own game...if some dont lose money in the market, how will the others get their profits. ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 4:31pm
Samir, 99%, if not 100%, of what you said is well known and I don't think there's any argument about it. ------------- |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 4:36pm
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Well, tomorrow is market day.. i get so bored in the weekends... lets see what the action is tomorrow.
all the best,
samir. ------------- |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 4:37pm
If one follows a disciplined approach of "Trailing Stop Loss", one can maximize the profits and avoid frustration after "selling on rise" |
Posted By: sureshbazi
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 11:19pm
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People feel pain of loss twice as much as they derive pleasure from an equal gain ------------- 'It is only when you combine sound intellect with emotional discipline that you get rational behavior.' – WB. |
Posted By: pinaki
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 8:32am
-There seems to be a fallacy in this statement..in stock market, it is not necessary for someone to lose money for others to earn money..it can be like a relay race with everyone winning over a period in a stock like Nestle or Asian Paint..
|
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 9:05am
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Maybe the conclusion that we are in a full fledged bull run is the correct one then...it is quite possible. ------------- |
Posted By: valuepicks
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2009 at 1:50pm
Samir, this is certainly an interesting thought. As you said, time alone will prove whether this thinking was right.
For the 'fear and capitulation' stage to come in, we certainly need some real bad news. In fact, I have been reading keenly these days, so as to be aware of any danger that may stike us. On other threads, there was some discussion around bond markets and potential bad news there. If bond markets are linked to central govts globally, then there is a danger of not just companies going bust, but countries! Though a crazy thought, such scenario might fit the 'fear and capitulation' stage to kick in.
The other possibility may be political in nature. What if North Korea, which has been acting aggressive these days, finally drop a bomb somewhere? Would there be other potential clashes between Ind-Pak?
Btw, I am not trying to predict anything here :-) but i am trying to point that your observation might come true, provided we have some economic or political catastrophe.
But i pray not something like that happen. It does no good to anyone!
|
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2009 at 3:32pm
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Hello 'valuepicks',
Thanks for the reply... Many bad things can happen, but none seem obvious at this time and there is no reason to believe that there is anything bad in the pipeline anyway.
My present fear is not that there is some bad news lurking, but just that there i just TOO much good news and worse, most of it is based on hopes ,nothing is concrete. I mean, so now we have a stable government.. thats nice, but many other countries have stable governments as well... ok, lot of reforms on the horizon.. but many countries are already way beyond reforms.. ok, divestment.. but what then, government says, we will sell more of this company into the public.. but what then.. public will buy it.. but how does that benefit present shareholders... and government is only planning to sell its assets to cover fiscal deficits and not to do anything worthwhile or positive with it..
Lots of more expectations, but corruption, tough environment for business, electricity, infrastructure, water.. there is nothing here.
Amritsar jalandhar four laning has been going on for 4 years now, its a 80km stretch,and not even 30 km is done yet and that too incomplete... so announcing infra spending and making other fancy announcements during budget is one thing.. but for all these things to materialize , its going to take many many years within which time, the stock market will have gone down and then up and then down and then up many many times.
Its nice to dream, but when money is involved, its good to stay in touch with reality.
(The above is my personal opinion and i maybe totally wrong) ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2009 at 4:48pm
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Where are we currently? I don't know, but I'm down 6% from the last trading day  . ------------- |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2009 at 9:35pm
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Here's something for the lovers of doom & gloom scenarios: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/260080/Roubini-Scoffs-at-Green-Shoots-Sees-Dangerous-Complacency;_ylt=ArxoVo_RS9B3G7U5_Om3J7q7YWsA?tickers=dia,spy,qqq,xlf?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode= - Roubini bhai is at it again....
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Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2009 at 10:01pm
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I will not be surprised if we have Shankar Sharma on TV channels tomorrow
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Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2009 at 10:48pm
As sure as there's mildew in the monsoon. ------------- |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2009 at 9:39am
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One day market falling does not amount to much... today we shall see whether it was a blip or a trend. I would start worrying if the correction continues for some days, although i do think thats what is really going to happen, but again, you never know.
best wishes,
samir. ------------- |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 09/Jul/2009 at 9:51am
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Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 10/Jul/2009 at 12:29pm
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We have visited all the parts of this chart in last 1 year but I never came to know where we are heading? Same is true for today also. ------------- Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity .... |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 10/Jul/2009 at 4:23pm
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Today's Index chart looked like this http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AAp_NMX5R5k/SUQEBKkD2nI/AAAAAAAAABk/Dtij91V5bAc/s1600-h/bubble-psychology.jpg"> |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 10/Jul/2009 at 5:56pm
All said and done... its getting very interesting!!!
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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 10/Oct/2009 at 2:23pm
| So now where are we currently????????? |