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manishdave
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 18/Feb/2008 at 10:40pm
IMO both aproaches are okay depending on you personality or style and comfort level. But one should not sell just bcoz of bull mkt. You can not sell just bcoz of little overvaluation, but if there is big over valuation it is good idea to sell. Also you need to look into demand/supply of shares, money, public psychology. Thought it is easier said than done.
 
On short selling, I do that occasionaly and it helps a lot. But don't short sell overvaluation unless it is way overvalued and in euphria. That also needs very good skill. Selling short is very safe with industry that gets broken from high growth or there is structural change. Notorious example is sub-prime. I track commodities and even if I had view that it will decline, I won't short it as it is in sustainable bull run. But there will sure be time to change the side after few years.
 
I see lot of members are alergic to RD but to his credit, it was very good call. His call was also good before crash last year. Only problem wa he changed his view little late.
 
Janakbhai,
What is your criteria for raising cash in bull mkt?
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Janak.merchant1
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 18/Feb/2008 at 10:59pm
Originally posted by manishdave

IMO both aproaches are okay depending on you personality or style and comfort level. But one should not sell just bcoz of bull mkt. You can not sell just bcoz of little overvaluation, but if there is big over valuation it is good idea to sell. Also you need to look into demand/supply of shares, money, public psychology. Thought it is easier said than done.
 
On short selling, I do that occasionaly and it helps a lot. But don't short sell overvaluation unless it is way overvalued and in euphria. That also needs very good skill. Selling short is very safe with industry that gets broken from high growth or there is structural change. Notorious example is sub-prime. I track commodities and even if I had view that it will decline, I won't short it as it is in sustainable bull run. But there will sure be time to change the side after few years.
 
I see lot of members are alergic to RD but to his credit, it was very good call. His call was also good before crash last year. Only problem wa he changed his view little late.
 
Janakbhai,
What is your criteria for raising cash in bull mkt?
 
Hi Manish,
 
I have been holding to lots of cash during last few months. All of us were making money very fast. And that was the reason i sold most of my stocks.
 
Dear TED  Friends,
 
This is to put on record that Manish Dave's elder brother has been a close friend of mine and we have together made many many factory visits and management meets in past before they shifted to the US. I wud request Manish to inform - convince Jagdeep Dave to join this forum for the benefit of all of us.
 
Manish, Pl pass on this message to Jagdeepbhai.
 
Best wishes,
 
JM
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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manishdave
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 18/Feb/2008 at 11:43pm
Janakbhai,
 
He knows abt this forum but he is active in different forum so I doubt he will leave that. As long as I know, he wont participate in two places simultaneously. But anyway, I will pass on you message to him.
 
Also we share ALL ideas, so unless there is difference of opinions(we don't have much but we do have) there won't be much extra. And all our major plays are more or less same except he rarely goes on short side.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 18/Feb/2008 at 9:50am
 I see lot of members are alergic to RD but to his credit, it was very good call. His call was also good before crash last year. Only problem wa he changed his view little late
 
I personally learnt a lot from RD during my rediff chatting days and still accept that he was the one who introduced me to Peter Lynch, Buffett etc but in recent times he has been an inverted Abhimanyu. He knows when to exit but that process gets completed only when he re-enters back again before the recovery. and it is that inability in his decision making of trying to get back again which frustates a lot of people.
 
He had made some big calls in the bull market especially the ones in liquor but on the other side he has been arrogant towards flexibility and has refused to look at his picks like McMillan, Timber etc.
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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manishdave
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 18/Feb/2008 at 10:45am
Everybody makes good calls and bad calls. McMillan was his big call that didn't work. MTimber I don't think was big call. I am not follower of RD and not follower of anybody for that matter, but IMO he does good job. Unlike others who just says buy/hold etc, he at least puts logic, educates chatters and then it is upto an individual to learn and take decisions.
 
If it is true that he was 50% in cash just bfore crash, credit goes to him. Even if he doesn't turn bullish, IMO he must be bargain hunting in crash and would not hold all cash as ultimately he is investor.
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India_Bull
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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 19/Feb/2008 at 12:19pm
It is simply irrestible to hold cash in the bull market..

In bull market-Buy high and sell higher.
In bear market- Sell Low and buy lower

It is upto individuals how  use cash in both hypothetical situations..
India_Bull forever Bull !
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Quote investor Replybullet Posted: 19/Feb/2008 at 2:30pm
Sitting on cash is a very difficult part of the investing process, but it is,
in  my opinion, as important as buying and selling decisions.
There are times when it is prudent to sit on cash for a while and just DO NOTHING - it is very, very difficult - but nevertheless, it needs to be done.
I have tried this a few times earlier and found that it does help, if one has
the patience to wait till a proper trend emerges.

Unfortunately, in the last 3-4 years, we have never really had any significant time-bound correction which has necessitated this type of a
position as most crashes have rebounded very quickly.

Like Basant, i also learnt pretty much what i know about investing from RD chats, and for that he will always remain my Guru(apart from the fact that only multibaggers till date have been his ideas, so another reason to be grateful to him). In the last few years, i have not used many of his recommendations, but still i participate in the chats as i think there is something i learn each week about investing, even if its not anything tehcnical or about a new idea, it could be something about how other
investors think, etc(in fact, i find the questions side of the chat window even more interesting coz we get to find out what ideas are being looked at). And regarding the other point that Basant made about arrogance, i dont think we can put it down to arrogance, i feel it is his conviction.
After all, he keeps talking about patience and conviction, so obviously he
may go with his views and remain convinced in a story for a little longer than needed, but that is how it works out, for all of us. He is entitled to
hold that conviction in his ideas, as long as he deems necessary.

After all, no matter how strong an idea you have, there will always be someone who dosent agree with it, and if they try to convince you about it, and you dont change your view on it, they could call you as arrogant.



Originally posted by manishdave

Everybody makes good calls and bad calls. McMillan was his big call that didn't work. MTimber I don't think was big call. I am not follower of RD and not follower of anybody for that matter, but IMO he does good job. Unlike others who just says buy/hold etc, he at least puts logic, educates chatters and then it is upto an individual to learn and take decisions.
 
If it is true that he was 50% in cash just bfore crash, credit goes to him. Even if he doesn't turn bullish, IMO he must be bargain hunting in crash and would not hold all cash as ultimately he is investor.
The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 19/Feb/2008 at 5:49am

TEDdies may discuss the points raised in the video whenever they are free! NJoy!
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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