Joined: 29/Oct/2006
Location: India
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Posted: 27/Jan/2008 at 11:35pm
Originally posted by smartcat
Incorrect data again.
I think it is best if you could get your hands on brokerage reports (will be definitely more accurate than websites) before you analyze a stock. If you are unable to get brokerage reports, go to the company website and look at the financials. Dividing the market cap by last 4 quarters net profit should give you an idea about the current P/E ratio.
Eg: DLF's current market cap is Rs. 160,000 crores. It had a net profit of Rs. 2,000 crores in FY07. So FY07 P/E would be 80. Going by the 9 month net profits of FY08, a net profit of Rs. 6,000 crores for the full financial year of FY08 seems to be a distinct possibility. So FY08 P/E would be 25.
Anyway, coming to Mahindra Lifespace, it seems to be a decent buy. However, the markets seem to give attention to only No. 1, 2 and 3 players only (DLF, Unitech & Indiabulls) - which can either be seen as an opportunity or as an opportunity cost - because other stocks are not moving anywhere.
I would personally prefer large players because it allows them to execute mega real estate projects. Eg: DLF bought land from DCM Shriram for Rs. 1,600 crores. You can't expect a BL Kashyap or a Purvankara Projects to manage such deals. Ditto with the DLF's Rs. 60,000 crores Bidadi Township project.
I agree with Ashwin, DLF is the best to pay realty or construction stocks.
Joined: 02/Oct/2007
Location: India
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Posts: 2037
Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 5:13pm
Looks like expertise and project execution skills are finally being taken note of. The last bull run saw entities like DLF and others being played up in a big way. Now, with valuations melting conservative players like Mahindra Lifespaces are moving in for the kill.
BL reported that the downturn in real estate has
left many in a quandary and private equity funds are no exception. Some
of them now are looking up to more established promoters and developers
to bale them out from large size projects such as special economic
zones.
Mr Arun Nanda executive director of Mahindra and Mahindra said that
some private equity players had recently approached him to take over
two notified SEZ projects in Maharashtra, while declining to furnish
details stating that it would hamper prospects.
Industry sources said that more than half of the 260 odd notified SEZs
would either not come up or the timeframe would be extended. This, they
say it would make their exit options difficult.
Last week, the country’s largest developer DLF asked the Commerce
Ministry to denotify its IT SEZ in Delhi as it would be difficult to
sell office space in the midst of the slowdown.
Conceding that not all SEZs would see the light of the day, Mr Nanda
said that SEZs should be seen as infrastructure projects and not mere
real estate propositions. He said that “We look at them as islands of
excellence, which with integrated facilities will work.”
Agreeing that the market was tough and funding a greater constraint, he
said that it was unfortunate that the basic concept of an SEZ had been
misunderstood by some.
Referring to Mahindra World City, Chennai, Mr Nanda said that the
residential and social infrastructure came after the commercial spaces
were leased out. He said that “We first created jobs and then the
residential.” Though the residential and social space can go up 50% of
the project span only 35%, 350 acres would be utilized.
He said that the Chennai venture is a JV between the Mahindras and the
Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation. Further expansion of
over 1,000 acres was being contemplated and it would be in the north of
Chennai, while ruling out Gummudipoondi as the preferred destination.
He added that the Chennai port has a larger role to play in development
and there would be acceleration in the manufacturing sector, shedding
the prominent IT garb the city had for worn thus far.
Mr Nanda said that the Chennai experience stood the company in good
stead at Jaipur and the project was up in 2 years. He said that “The
Rajasthan Government, especially the officials should be complimented
for the speed we were able to set shop there. Clearances came fast and
clients such as Infosys and Deutsche Bank set a deadline for July 2008.”
Two more SEZ of a much smaller scale are in the pipeline at Thane and
Pune. The Thane one would be a biotech SEZ across 72 acres. In Pune,
the social impact assessment study was complete.
While funding remains an overall issue, the conservative approach
adopted by Mahindras in the real estate space helped. He said that
“Being not highly leveraged, we feel it is the right time to
consolidate and get future ready. In difficult times, people look at
reputed companies and it is here we score. Mahindra Life space is a
zero debt company. The Chennai SEZ would require INR 500 crore to INR
600 crore and Jaipur a little more and we stand well covered.”
Mr Nanada further added that there would be no deceleration in any of
the company’s SEZ projects as it had made commitments for delivery.
Mahindra Life space would, however, phase out its projects that is if 4
towers were planned, two would be taken up and the others would be
deferred to ensure alignment with the current demand. He said that
“There would be no job cuts and, in fact, we are putting out an
advertisement for additional manpower."
.....
While funding remains an overall issue, the conservative approach
adopted by Mahindras in the real estate space helped. He said that
“Being not highly leveraged, we feel it is the right time to
consolidate and get future ready. In difficult times, people look at
reputed companies and it is here we score. Mahindra Life space is a
zero debt company. The Chennai SEZ would require INR 500 crore to INR
600 crore and Jaipur a little more and we stand well covered.”
.......“There would be no job cuts and, in fact, we are putting out an
advertisement for additional manpower."
A refreshing difference relative to its peer group!
A refreshing difference relative to its peer group!
It's peer group (real estate broadly) is not that bad, at least for me. Exited HDIL today after making 100% gains in less than 2 months. So, one of the Oct picks stands vindicated.
Someone’s sitting in shade today because someone planted a tree long time ago.
Joined: 02/Oct/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2037
Posted: 17/Dec/2008 at 11:54pm
Companies like HDIL will offer trading opportunities at best. It is building the biggest bubble in Mumbai that would go bust if more air is pumped into it - TDR or Transfer of Development Rights.
HDIL has begun construction of the rehab project to house slum dwellers at the Mumbai airport, but it is said to be facing severe shortage of cash to carry out the project.
Remember, the SRA scheme is a free project and no revenue is expected to accrue till work on the buildings to be sold in the open market commences. So far, there is no sign of the work commencing.
In fact, HDIL has put out big advertisements in October-November
offering sale of TDR in the open market. Consequently, the price for TDR per sq ft crashed from some Rs 3600 to Rs 1300 over four to five
months. According to unconfirmed reports, it is said to have fallen
below Rs 1000 per sq ft now.
HDIL is said to have sold around 3 lakh sq ft of TDR from the 1.74
million sq ft of TDR received by it for the airport slum project.
The NAV based valuation of HDIL by brokerages is very rich because prices will crash the moment the capacity hits the market.
Its a replay of the Slum redevelopment scheme of the 1990s. Now every
second building planned in Mumbai is a tower. From a maximum 7 storey
structure, every new bldg planned is a 14 storey structure. About 55
per cent of Mumbaikars live in buildings while the rest struggle in
slums. If even 20 per cent of the 7 storeyed bldgs are redeveloped
into towers, you will see a huge capacity inflow.
But the SRA schemes will virtually treble the housing stock. So prices
will crash since not everyone can afford the high prices.
A refreshing difference relative to its peer group!
It's peer group (real estate broadly) is not that bad, at least for me. Exited HDIL today after making 100% gains in less than 2 months. So, one of the Oct picks stands vindicated.
A MASTERful trade . Wish you many more in the future!
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