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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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manishwithted
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Quote manishwithted Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2011 at 4:12pm
Originally posted by bharti

Motilal estimates of current NAV is around 600.  Balance sheet is clean, good management(although not very agressive).  Estimate of Rs 40 as EPS for next FY by Motilal. 
Also, I think there will be a gradual shift towards 'quality' housing, it has already started happening in places like Noida with people really starting to focus on builder quality and reputation , this Mahindra company should be a beneficiary if that trend gains momentum, if India continues to grow and grow.  Flats of reputed builders in Noida currently sell at 20-30% premium compared to other builders in same area , same locality.


well said.
Most of the builders are cheaters and in a scenario like this i also feel Mahindras and tatas will command a premium.
I feel management not being aggressive is a good quality for real estate at least in present scenario.
I feel Mahindra is available at reasonable valuations now. However, i am waiting for a further drop ( may or may not happen)


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shivkumar
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Quote shivkumar Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2011 at 4:17pm
the real gem lies in the company's subsidiaries - the mahindra world cities. The management has played its cards very nicely by tying up with state governments to develop properties that have already been acquired.

The company has also not hesitated in exiting projects where there is a question mark over land acquisition. That is the biggest example of its prudence.
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Quote bihisello Replybullet Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 12:02pm
Originally posted by bharti

Most analysts have been negative on real estate. Still this company is up 6 times fom its lows of Rs 80 odd and is still trading below its estimated NAV of around 500 ( Motilal estimates in Mar 2009) !


My broker was more positive on Anant Raj saying it also had very low debt. Now, Tehelka!
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Quote FutureBull Replybullet Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 12:20pm
it looks like it is foregone conclusion that we won't get clean real estate play ever.. I'm betting on Godrej Prop. due to its own land. I was thinking of adding Mahindra due to cleaner image. Anant raj is a real shocker..it appeared to be cleaner and had conservative approach. don't know how to judge these managements
‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’.
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barla
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Quote barla Replybullet Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 12:27pm
 
This is the error people make on godrej properties. It has hardly any land. The land is owned by the other godrej companies. Special purpose vehicles ahve been created in which the land owner and godrej properties ahve defined stake. Godrej properties then develops the land and the profits are divided proportionate to the sahre in the said SPV.
 
It is so compliacted i do not think an outsdier can value the holdings. There are more than 10 SPVs already in place. And they also want to get outside investors to invest in some of the SPVs.
 
Originally posted by FutureBull

it looks like it is foregone conclusion that we won't get clean real estate play ever.. I'm betting on Godrej Prop. due to its own land. I was thinking of adding Mahindra due to cleaner image. Anant raj is a real shocker..it appeared to be cleaner and had conservative approach. don't know how to judge these managements
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FutureBull
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Quote FutureBull Replybullet Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 3:37pm
well if you don't believe me then lets believe the market. It would almost be 1 year of listing and it has always traded premium to its NAV. Even current NAV of 573 is below CMP. This is not complicated as it made out to be. What I have understood till now is all land is owned by either Godrej & Boyce or Godrej Ind.. It has been articulated that all land holdings by group will be developed by Godrej Prop. so in a sense raw material is assured. A real estate company pays hard cash for acquiring land but here it pays profit share which is biz model exactly. String of agreements between grp companies are done to protect minorities in each of these companies. You can't even think of doubting their dealings.

Reason for so many SPVs in real estate/infra sector is well known. If you sell stake at SPV level you only pay capital gains tax but if you sell apartments etc you actually pay income tax(31%). Most of the PE investors in Godrej prop are marquee names including extensive involvement by HDFC. I would remain bullish.

Originally posted by barla

 

This is the error people make on godrej properties. It has hardly any land. The land is owned by the other godrej companies. Special purpose vehicles ahve been created in which the land owner and godrej properties ahve defined stake. Godrej properties then develops the land and the profits are divided proportionate to the sahre in the said SPV.

 

It is so compliacted i do not think an outsdier can value the holdings. There are more than 10 SPVs already in place. And they also want to get outside investors to invest in some of the SPVs.

 

Originally posted by FutureBull

it looks like it is foregone conclusion that we won't get clean real estate play ever.. I'm betting on Godrej Prop. due to its own land. I was thinking of adding Mahindra due to cleaner image. Anant raj is a real shocker..it appeared to be cleaner and had conservative approach. don't know how to judge these managements
‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’.
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barla
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Quote barla Replybullet Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 12:10pm
 
So how does it become the best real estate play when it does not own property. It will be the land owners who make the money. This is just a construciton company. Teh land owner will decide whether he wants to sell or not.
 
I have never doubted the group, credentials or the prospects of the Company.
 
I only doubted the rationale of buying Godrej properties as a real estate play.
 
Originally posted by FutureBull

well if you don't believe me then lets believe the market. It would almost be 1 year of listing and it has always traded premium to its NAV. Even current NAV of 573 is below CMP. This is not complicated as it made out to be. What I have understood till now is all land is owned by either Godrej & Boyce or Godrej Ind.. It has been articulated that all land holdings by group will be developed by Godrej Prop. so in a sense raw material is assured. A real estate company pays hard cash for acquiring land but here it pays profit share which is biz model exactly. String of agreements between grp companies are done to protect minorities in each of these companies. You can't even think of doubting their dealings.

Reason for so many SPVs in real estate/infra sector is well known. If you sell stake at SPV level you only pay capital gains tax but if you sell apartments etc you actually pay income tax(31%). Most of the PE investors in Godrej prop are marquee names including extensive involvement by HDFC. I would remain bullish.

Originally posted by barla

 

This is the error people make on godrej properties. It has hardly any land. The land is owned by the other godrej companies. Special purpose vehicles ahve been created in which the land owner and godrej properties ahve defined stake. Godrej properties then develops the land and the profits are divided proportionate to the sahre in the said SPV.

 

It is so compliacted i do not think an outsdier can value the holdings. There are more than 10 SPVs already in place. And they also want to get outside investors to invest in some of the SPVs.

 

Originally posted by FutureBull

it looks like it is foregone conclusion that we won't get clean real estate play ever.. I'm betting on Godrej Prop. due to its own land. I was thinking of adding Mahindra due to cleaner image. Anant raj is a real shocker..it appeared to be cleaner and had conservative approach. don't know how to judge these managements


Edited by barla - 19/Feb/2011 at 12:10pm
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manishwithted
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Quote manishwithted Replybullet Posted: 19/Feb/2011 at 9:31am


GODREJ PROP

if the company owns so much land, why are the sales declining yoy , the sales have not increased since last 3 years. the PE multiple is very high on ttm basis.
owning land at prime location is a big positive but what is stopping the company in developing the property ,selling it and improving sales.

Mahindra lifespace - the sales are increasing yoy, the promoters are good and hence we can be optimistic of a good management,  the PE is also less on ttm basis.  Company is DEBT FREE .
Long term thinking improves short term decision making - Brian Tracy
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