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Portfolio Check Up
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 18/Dec/2006 at 9:31am
The portfolio sounds good. The speculative type stocks all have low percentage holdings and the top stocks all make sense. Observations are in BOLD below.
 
1) I want to convert  Hitachi Home to Blue Star (or) Voltas. Of the 2 BlueStar & Voltas which one makes the most sense ? I WOULD GO WITH BLUE STAR.

2) As you see I have Sundaram Finance 2.4%. Would it sound prudent to convert that to HDFC-HDFC Bank duo ? (or) Is Sundaram Finance itself a good Insurance & AMC play and hence stay with it?NOT SURE HERE BUT I DO NOT LIKE SUNDARAM FIN AS AN INV AS A VALUE PLAY IT IS CLASSIC VALUE NO DOUBT BUT HOW THAT VALUE WILL GET UNLOCKED IS STILL NOT CLEAR TO ME SO MAYBE HDFC TWINS OR VIPULJI'S YES BANK

3) Is ENIL a good one to add to? What kind of growth are we looking ahead for ENIL till 2010 ? Can we say 30% or more ? ENIL SHOULD GROW AT 35% + CAGR TIL 2010. THE INDUSTRY IS GROWING AT 30%

After all the  demerging in Zee & HTMT, I want to sell them say Feb/Mar  & want to convert it to ENIL. How does that sound?GREAT ALSO LOOK AT PVR FOR THAT MATTER.
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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Posted: 19/Dec/2006 at 10:59pm
Thanks Basantji !
I agree with you on Sundaram Finance. Though it possess lots of value.. Bieng a very conservative promoters.. demerging business to realize value is a very long shot.

I could use some of the recent market downs to get into Yes Bank & Blue Star.

I already have sokme exposure to INOX ...If you had to choose between ENIL & PVR which one would you choose...
Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 19/Dec/2006 at 8:39am
I would put ENIL and PVR above Inox. PVR looks compelling.
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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Posted: 28/Dec/2006 at 8:20am
Hi Basantji,
  Read your posts on Hinduja TMT that selling may be considered now.It is upto 3.6% of my portofolio. I am sitting on 35-40% profit on that. 
 
What would you consider I pick up formy portfolio at cutrrent prices. I have couple of options in mind
 
1) Hold onto cash and wait for sometime to add onto HDFCBank(which is 4% of portfolio). I have HDFC approx 8% of portfolio.
2) Increase exposure to ENIL, PVR,YES Bank
3) Buy entirely into Financial technologies ( No exposure so far)
 
Which one would you recommend.
 
Thanks !
Regards,
Vivek
Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 5:09am
Basantji,
 
My updated Portfolio.. I thought if I kept track of the story... estimated CAGR which made the story attractive to me... would be better to monitor & track the weightage if needed...
 
Stock % Weightage % Estimated CAGR till 2010 Additional Kicker
Pantaloon Ret 14.67% 70%  
TV 18 12.72% 50% CAS
AdityaBirlaNuvo 10.46% 35% Insurance, Telecom Demerger
Network 18 Fin 9.84% 40% CAS
Nucleus Softwar 7.71% 40%  
HDFC 5.11% 25% Insurance Demerger
Ent Network Ind 4.99% 40%  
Kotak Mahindra 4.38% 30% Brokerage Demerger 
Financial Tech 4.31% 30% MCX
Indian Hotels 3.88% 30%  
ICICI Bank 3.83% 30% Insurance Demerger
HDFC Bank 3.77% 30%  
Yes Bank 3.23% 30%  
Viceroy Hotels 3.01% 40%  
Blue Star 2.88% 25%  
Zee Entertain 2.43% 40% CAS
Lloyd Electric 2.39% 30%  
 
 
- Does Indian Hotels & Viceroy make sense at the expected growth rate? (or) Should I convert it to some other like Bharti instead ? 
 
 
Any suggestions on the portfolio are welcome ...
 


Edited by vivekkumar_in - 06/Feb/2007 at 5:13am
Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 8:24am
This surely (almost) seems to be a dream TED portfolio.Since Viceroy forms a small part of your portfolio you should continue to hold on. IT is a good strategy to keep small caps making small percentages of portfolio.
 
Pantaloon kicker could come from its various businesses real estate funds AMC, Insurance, outdoor media, logistics etc.,
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Quote catchsudipto Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 8:25am
Stock % Weightage % Estimated CAGR till 2010 Additional Kicker
Pantaloon Ret 14.67% 70%  
TV 18 12.72% 50% CAS
AdityaBirlaNuvo 10.46% 35% Insurance, Telecom Demerger
Network 18 Fin 9.84% 40% CAS
Nucleus Softwar 7.71% 40%  
HDFC 5.11% 25% Insurance Demerger
Ent Network Ind 4.99% 40%  
Kotak Mahindra 4.38% 30% Brokerage Demerger 
Financial Tech 4.31% 30% MCX
Indian Hotels 3.88% 30%  
ICICI Bank 3.83% 30% Insurance Demerger
HDFC Bank 3.77% 30%  
Yes Bank 3.23% 30%  
Viceroy Hotels 3.01% 40%  
Blue Star 2.88% 25%  
Zee Entertain 2.43% 40% CAS
Lloyd Electric 2.39% 30%  
 
 HI
Its a very very well thoughtout flawless portfolio. Congratulation and u must hold it tight till 2010. But I feel u must convert  Viceroy hotels and Yes bank to Bharti tele. I am also doubtfull about the growth rate of icici bank mentioned by u in the long run. I also feel that Financial tech might grow more that 30% in the long run.
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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 10:22am

Thanks Basantji & Sudipto !

About Yes Bank.. I am pretty much convinced on my exposure in Financial Sector. While ICICIBank, HDFCBank & HDFC  are leaders , YES & Kotak are mid caps that are promising to grow.. Hence I want to retain them..

About the growth rate of ICICI Bank or Financial Tech, you may be right, we will have to see.. On of the cardinals of accounting...When in doubt take the conservative approach...I will take that..
 
I was just wondering about Viceroy.. The story is attractive.. Will see next quarter of Viceroy starts delivering , else will move to Bharti or something else.. 
Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch
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