Vivek's portfolio
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Portfolio Check Up
Forum Discription: Members may put forward their portfolios dor comments from other members. The final call will obviously be taken by the investor himself.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=608
Printed Date: 22/Apr/2025 at 8:33pm
Topic: Vivek's portfolio
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Subject: Vivek's portfolio
Date Posted: 21/Nov/2006 at 4:53am
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Hi, Presenting my portfolio for your review
Even though it looks like 20 stocks, the top 7 holdings are near to 62% of my portfolio. HindujaTMT, Zee & Mount Everest are meant more of short term bets. Once they materialize am planning to convert them into HDFC Bank & ICICI Bank. I am not sure if I need Trent(3%) in my portfolio while I have Pantaloon Retail(15%). Likewise , any ideas if I should convert Lloyd electric to Voltas? Your reviews on my portfolio & any suggesions for improvements are welcome.. Regards, Vivek ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Replies:
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 21/Nov/2006 at 5:58am
| A veyr good profile ........it should create lot of wealth in some time |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Nov/2006 at 12:20pm
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A very well thought out plan of action. I would just take some off Pantaloon and put into Educomp. Just a casual thought but overall it looks solid. There are some stocks which I do not know (understand) like Mt. Everest, Balmer Lawrie, Hit Home etc. On the whole this should create huge wealth in a few years. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 22/Nov/2006 at 8:30pm
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Thanks for the review !
Balmer Lawrie :
I started investing in Oct 2004 & at that time say approx 2 % of my portfolio. It so happened Balmer Lawrie rose 3 times from there and now occupies near to 7% now..
Though it has been by far in a range in past 1 yr.. It is still attractive at a PE of 11 ..Hence I am holding on to it as ..'Do not sell a winner' theme
Hitachi :
As you would have figured by now some of my shares Nucleus, Balmer Lawrie, Mt Everest, Hitachi are RD picks.. Though I do not buy all that he recommends..
Hitachi is a good play in consumar durables and A/C is one are where there is low penetration yet to residences.. 10 yrs ago there were less houses with A/C.. 5 yrs ago many ppl I knew had A/Cs in 1 master bedroom.. Now they have A/Cs in all bedrooms.. India being a hot country & raising disposable incomes A/Cs are one major growth area at least for next 3-4 yrs when it will start to saturate... Hitachi is available at attractive valuations and is a good player.. Last 1 month there have been some good technical breakouts also.. So I am holding on to it..
Mt Everest:
This is a short term investment..I am merely holding it for a take over candidate..I have already gained say 40-50% on this one and right now it is moving in a range.. Wondering if I should sell it now and convert it to HDFC/ICICI Banks...
Of course I should also consider opp. cost while I wait on Mt Eve to materialize these 2 bank stocks are raising too..
BTW any suggestions if I should converts Lloyd electric to Voltas or Blue Star ? I was driven to Lloyd electric thru the topic in equitydesk only..
Regarding your suggestion of converting some Pantaloon retail to Educomp... I have been holding Pantaloon since it was Rs 450. Last month I purchased some more at Rs1800 after reading your write ups..
 So my average price has a very good margin..
Are you thinking
1) I am over concentrated on Pantaloon (or)
2) Educomp is attractive now hence I can increase exposure to Educomp
If you think it is (2) then I would be comfortable to convert one of other stocks that have less convincing stories to educomp..(any suggesions Basantji looking at the list ?)
If you think it is (1) let me know your reasoning...
Regards,
Vivek ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Nov/2006 at 9:20pm
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2) Educomp is attractive now hence I can increase exposure to Educomp -
This stock deserves a slightly higher concentration, why not convert from Trent since it is now clear that Pantaloon has been far ahead of Trent in the retail race. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 22/Nov/2006 at 10:00pm
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Thanks Basantji for the prompt reply.. That sounds great.. I was not anyway convinced with Trent as much as Pantaloon Retail.. I hold a 2010 perspective, but at the same time also want it to be with a margin of safety from 1 yr perspective.. Educomp has risen so much in past 3 months.. Just want to get your view if you think at 650 levels it is good to enter? Do you think it has some margin of safety ? ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Nov/2006 at 7:16am
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Yes Educomp has risen no doubt but it has kind of stabilised over the past 3 months and soon we should start discounting Fy 08 - That should make it reasonable again. The risks in Educomp will diminish as we enter the next Financial year. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2006 at 3:29am
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Basantji , My revamped portfolio
Key things I did was - Increased Educomp exposure by converting Trent & Mount Everest. Entered Educomp at Rs650 or so.. I have few questions 1) I want to convert Hitachi Home to Blue Star (or) Voltas. Of the 2 BlueStar & Voltas which one makes the most sense ? 2) As you see I have Sundaram Finance 2.4%. Would it sound prudent to convert that to HDFC-HDFC Bank duo ? (or) Is Sundaram Finance itself a good Insurance & AMC play and hence stay with it? 3) Is ENIL a good one to add to? What kind of growth are we looking ahead for ENIL till 2010 ? Can we say 30% or more ? After all the demerging in Zee & HTMT, I want to sell them say Feb/Mar & want to convert it to ENIL. How does that sound? Regards, Vivek ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2006 at 9:31am
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The portfolio sounds good. The speculative type stocks all have low percentage holdings and the top stocks all make sense. Observations are in BOLD below.
1) I want to convert Hitachi Home to Blue Star (or) Voltas. Of the 2 BlueStar & Voltas which one makes the most sense ? I WOULD GO WITH BLUE STAR.
2) As you see I have Sundaram Finance 2.4%. Would it sound prudent to convert that to HDFC-HDFC Bank duo ? (or) Is Sundaram Finance itself a good Insurance & AMC play and hence stay with it?NOT SURE HERE BUT I DO NOT LIKE SUNDARAM FIN AS AN INV AS A VALUE PLAY IT IS CLASSIC VALUE NO DOUBT BUT HOW THAT VALUE WILL GET UNLOCKED IS STILL NOT CLEAR TO ME SO MAYBE HDFC TWINS OR VIPULJI'S YES BANK 3) Is ENIL a good one to add to? What kind of growth are we looking ahead for ENIL till 2010 ? Can we say 30% or more ? ENIL SHOULD GROW AT 35% + CAGR TIL 2010. THE INDUSTRY IS GROWING AT 30% After all the demerging in Zee & HTMT, I want to sell them say Feb/Mar & want to convert it to ENIL. How does that sound?GREAT ALSO LOOK AT PVR FOR THAT MATTER. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 19/Dec/2006 at 10:59pm
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Thanks Basantji ! I agree with you on Sundaram Finance. Though it possess lots of value.. Bieng a very conservative promoters.. demerging business to realize value is a very long shot. I could use some of the recent market downs to get into Yes Bank & Blue Star. I already have sokme exposure to INOX ...If you had to choose between ENIL & PVR which one would you choose... ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Dec/2006 at 8:39am
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I would put ENIL and PVR above Inox. PVR looks compelling. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 28/Dec/2006 at 8:20am
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Hi Basantji,
Read your posts on Hinduja TMT that selling may be considered now.It is upto 3.6% of my portofolio. I am sitting on 35-40% profit on that.
What would you consider I pick up formy portfolio at cutrrent prices. I have couple of options in mind
1) Hold onto cash and wait for sometime to add onto HDFCBank(which is 4% of portfolio). I have HDFC approx 8% of portfolio.
2) Increase exposure to ENIL, PVR,YES Bank
3) Buy entirely into Financial technologies ( No exposure so far)
Which one would you recommend.
Thanks !
Regards,
Vivek ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 5:09am
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Basantji,
My updated Portfolio.. I thought if I kept track of the story... estimated CAGR which made the story attractive to me... would be better to monitor & track the weightage if needed...
- Does Indian Hotels & Viceroy make sense at the expected growth rate? (or) Should I convert it to some other like Bharti instead ?
Any suggestions on the portfolio are welcome ...
------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 8:24am
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This surely (almost) seems to be a dream TED portfolio.Since Viceroy forms a small part of your portfolio you should continue to hold on. IT is a good strategy to keep small caps making small percentages of portfolio.
Pantaloon kicker could come from its various businesses real estate funds AMC, Insurance, outdoor media, logistics etc., ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 8:25am
HI
Its a very very well thoughtout flawless portfolio. Congratulation and u must hold it tight till 2010. But I feel u must convert Viceroy hotels and Yes bank to Bharti tele. I am also doubtfull about the growth rate of icici bank mentioned by u in the long run. I also feel that Financial tech might grow more that 30% in the long run. ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 10:22am
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Thanks Basantji & Sudipto ! About Yes Bank.. I am pretty much convinced on my exposure in Financial Sector. While ICICIBank, HDFCBank & HDFC are leaders , YES & Kotak are mid caps that are promising to grow.. Hence I want to retain them.. About the growth rate of ICICI Bank or Financial Tech, you may be right, we will have to see.. On of the cardinals of accounting...When in doubt take the conservative approach...I will take that..
I was just wondering about Viceroy.. The story is attractive.. Will see next quarter of Viceroy starts delivering , else will move to Bharti or something else.. ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 10:51am
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Looks pretty nice Vivek ji. Congrats! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 11:57pm
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Hi, Please find below my latest portfolio. Did some tinkering recently..
During this recent carnage...Converted the HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank & HDFC that I had into TV18, Network18 & Pantaloon. They were anyway small % of my portfolio and the only reason I had them was they would be stable steady compounders.. But with the govts play with inflation.. I don't think I will have that stability with them in medium term.. I anyway moved into them pretty late so don't have a considerable margin of safety.. So moved out of them before they start to show some red .. Have created a small exposure to Zicom.. With recent security lapses in railway stations leading to constant security scenarios, think they should benefit from some kind of security measure. They have a monopoly in that segment.. Also could be considered a pick-axe theme in the retail boom..More and more housing boom & nuclear families I think ppl would start focusing on home security systems too... Regarding Financial Technologies I don't know if I should stay or leave.. With govt regulations on banning future trading .. Donno if Financial Tech will see the growth that we expected by 2010.. I don't have enough margin of safety on this one either as I made only a late entry.. It is just showing barely black for me.. Any suggestions on this would help ... My questions are : a) Financial technologies.. b) Does the split between TV18 & Network 18 look okay .. Or is there alternate suggestion for redistributing them ? ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 1:18am
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Vivek ji, amazing way you have worked your portfolio. I like it a lot, but only 3 suggestion(s) would be(which you may also know, but repeating nonetheless):
1) Keep yourself ready for a 50% fall anytime, minimum 30%.
2) Keep a 3 years view minimum.
3) See how the portfolio is doing after every year, not after every quarter.
Rest, I think you are intelligent enough to handle it, since you have created a nice portfolio. Good luck. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 2:32am
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Thanks Omji for the review comments ! I could not have done this without TED, Basantji & all senior members.. I would say "TED is my Tonic" You are right. I should be ready for a 30-50% fall anytime. I am absolutely convinced about my top 5 - Pantaloon, TV18, Net18, ABNuvo & Nucleus. There is no way I am selling them for next 3 yrs. It is the other parts of my portfolio that I have some thoughts on quarter to quarter... As for these stocks go... I may be not so prudent to say this, but my conviction on them is related to my margin of safety... ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 9:54am
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My questions are : a) Financial technologies.. b) Does the split between TV18 & Network 18 look okay .. Or is there alternate suggestion for redistributing them ? -------------------------------------------------- Hi I am also having financial technology in my portfolio. Its more that 10% for me now. What i feel is that it can really get Big. We all know about MCX, there is nothing more to say about it. With govt regulation it might get effected to some extent but not that huze. ( Initially I was very much worried, when i heard that story, but Basant Sir helped me a lot to cool my nerves) Its software business is huze. The only sizeable competitor is Tibco and IBM. One day that software business itselt can give lots of return. There can be serious value unlocking on it in the near future. I think u will do well if u add some more weight in TV 18. I think u can sell zee entertainment and add that to TV 18. ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 10:13am
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This looks very well laid out. Someday when I have a diversified portfolio I would like to replicate this strategy. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 10:54am
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Vivek,
I think you can hold Financial technologies.. It is the best possible franchise that anybody can own. There would not be any more commodity exchanges in the country(most likely). Though anybody can open a business channel, entertainment channel etc, exchange cannot be opened by anybody else. That means that unless the company itself does something stupid, MCX would be the market leader. However, the difficult part is related to the govt. It will happen over a period of time..I have a firm belief that India will emerge a commodity behemoth in the years to come..MCX would be direct play on that.. Besides that also Jignesh shah is a smart man, who is using money from MCX to develop other technologies and build businesses around them. However you have to be convinced yourself as the company is not cheap and given govt intervention (though it affects MCX minimally)it can test the patience. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 11:00am
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That was a good insight on the business model of FT. WHile near term concerns could be there the longer term is absolutely robust.You could actually use these declines to convert some of your marginal positions into FT. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: sunny_agarwal
Date Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 3:14pm
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HI VIVEK,
LET ME INTRODUCE U TO MYSELF AS AN INVESTOR AND A TRADER AND I HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING MARKETS EACH AND EVERY DAY FOR THE PAST THREE YEARS BY SITTING ON MY TRADIND DESK.
THOUGH I AM A NEW MEMBER OF THIS EMERGING FORUM , I HAVE BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE POSTS BY ALL THE MEMBERS AND ALL THE DISCUSSIONS.
I WOULD LIKE TO START BY COMPLEMENTING U ON THE KIND OF STOCKS U HAVE ADDED IN UR PORTFOLIO OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. THE STOCKS IN UR PORTFOLIO DEPICT A CLEAR MIX OF VERY HIGH GROWTH COMPANIES WHICH HAVE ALREADY GROWN TO AN EXTENT AND COMPANIES WHICH ARE YET TO UNLEASH THEIR POTENTIAL
BUT THE COMPANIES IN UR PORTFOLIO HAVE BEEN ALREADY IDENTIFIED BY THE MARKETS AND ARE STOCKS WHICH HAVE ALREADY MADE INVESTORS RICH OVER THESE YEARS. THESE COMPANIES NO DOUBT ARE VERY WELL ESTABLISHED AND ARE VERY WELL PLACED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIELDS . THESE STOCKS ARE ALSO TRADING AT VERY HIGH MULTIPLES AND VALUATIONS FOR SURELY DEMAND A RE-LOOK. I FEEL A FEW STOCKS IN UR PORTFOLIO MIGHT GO FOR PE DE-RATING RATHER THAN PE RE-RATING.
THOUGH STOCKS LIKE ADITYA BIRLA NUVO, ZICOM SECURITY, YES BANK LOOK VERY GOOD AND WOULD BE THE ONES TO BET ON. FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES I FEEL IS A VERY HYPED COMPANY. UR PORTFOLIO COSISTS OF STOCKS WHICH ARE VERY POPULAR WITH MOST RETAIL INVESTORS AND MUCH SIMILAR TO THE STOCKS MR. BASANT LIKES, ( HE HAS A REASON TO LIKE THEM, COZ THESE COMPANIES HAVE MADE ENOUGH FOR HIM).
AND I STRONGLY FEEL THAT THE STOCKS WHICH ARE GENERALLY TALKED ABOUT IN THIS FORUM HAVE TO BE AGAIN SCANNED AND OTHER STOCKS AND SECTORS SHOULD BE GIVEN A SECOND LOOK RATHER THAN FOLLOWING THE STOCKS WHICH HAVE ALREADY REWARDED INVESTORS HEAVILY OVER PAST MANY YEARS. WE NEED TO MOVE ON GUYS!!!!!!!
LAST BUT NOT THE LEAST :
" BETWEEN YESTERDAYS REGRET AND TOMORROWS HOPE LIES TODAYS OPPORTUNITY "
------------- Be the change you wish to see in this world!!! |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 5:31pm
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Sunny ji, thank you so much for your intelligent words. I believe decision should be based on: Growth outlook for future, not on what has been made in the past. Just bcoz something has gone up doesn't mean there is nothing in it, in the same way that something which has not gone up much despite the bull run in last few years ARE SURE SHOT BETS. Each is a case by case analysis.
So since you mentioned pe-derating, kindly also provide the examples you are talking of.
Yes Bank holds opportunity as per you, at a current PE of above 50(TTM) and you assume a further pe-rating in it, is it? How much PE do you think it should get? Just curious! Btw, I have learn to look at P/BV in case of banks, from TED.
Now, since you didn't mention Pantaloon, TV18, Network18, Nucleus I assume(as per what you said) that they should undergo PE-derating as they must be stretched in valuations.
So, would you be kind enuff to provide the facts too(since I too want to learn):
1) Current PE(Trailing Twelve Months) for Pantaloon, TV18, Ntwk18 and Nucleus.
2) Current growth rate in EPS for the above four, for past 2 years(if any).
3) Expected growth rate in EPS for the above four, for next 3 years, as per you or as per the market(average consensus).
And lastly,
4) PEG ratio for the above four, after you have done points (2) & (3).
I think all of us would get a good idea of the valuations in this case, since you mentioned derating.
Thank you again for your observations Sunny ji. And lastly, TEDdies don't invest into something just bcoz someone else has also invested. If that were the case, then there would be just one page of Pantaloon/TV18 etc. with a research report of its growth possibilities and a photo of Basant ji with it, and we would all invest into it just based on that.
Yes, one needs to always be on the lookout for newer growth avenues and that is what TEDdies are all about. In case you find more such compelling ideas as discussed on TED with proper facts and research done on it, please do post a topic on that company and I would be the first one to read it up, I promise.
Please do not take this any other way Sunny ji. I am just trying to learn from everyone, including you.
Om Namah Shivaya!!! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 6:39pm
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Hi sunny,
I will try to summarize the qualities of the stocks that are favourites at TED. If you find something which meets this quality, pls tell us.
1. Strong management team - Normally 1st generation entrepreneurs with strong background
2. Strong growth visibility with huge scale of opportunity
3. Pricing Power with strong franchises which cannot be easily replicated
4. High operating leverage
5. Non Cyclical and Mostly unaffected by economy, govt, interest rates etc etc
6. Business Leaders in their segment
As far as discovering by market is considered, i think most of the market feels that the stocks discussed here are very expensive. However FII's favour the stocks that we discuss while domestic MF's are not normally tuned in.
Infact financial technologies is not covered by any indian MF of repute as of now and no body holds it.. But FII's hold the full quota.
So I think your observations are a little too general. Maybe if you can cite some specific reasons it may help to understand your view point.
Thanks !!!
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 6:53pm
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MR. BASANT LIKES, ( HE HAS A REASON TO LIKE THEM, COZ THESE COMPANIES HAVE MADE ENOUGH FOR HIM).
_______________________________________________________
Hi Sunny ji, Great to have you with us. WHile you are correct about current valuations of most of these stocks what we generally like to see is Growth at reasonable value. We always look for new ideas here but since the (unintentional and unintended) focus has been to stay away from commodities and cyclicals and remain with the leaders the scope of companies have been restricted to a very large extent.
YOu make an interesting observation that it is very easy to fall in love with a stock and that is something which I keep introspecting but surely we develop soft corners for companies not because we make money in them but because become accustomed to understanding the business and management so well that any new idea looks dilutive at first look.
But I have managed to get out of this spider web if you could call it. Companies like http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=103 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=142 -
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 7:27pm
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That's the difference speaking. I also wanted to say the same thing as softly as Basant ji did...but Basant jee's words seem oh so soft yet affirmative. That's what is called temperament and experience.
Another lesson learnt for me. Will work on it even more...Thanks TED! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: s_praharaj
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 5:35pm
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Sunny,
Welcome to TED.
It seems we have a lot to hear and learn from you.
We in TED are constantly look out for constructive criticism. This gives us scope for introspection and devolop ourselves and form new ideas.
Please tell us WHY you think that some of the stocks discussed in this forum has no great future.
I totally agree with you that all these stocks have gone up a lot. and the returns from this stage may not be as spectacular as before.
Also tell us, what are the stocks in your mind and what are your analysis and logic while selecting these stocks.
I very much like your following quote, which all TEDDIES constantly look out for.
" BETWEEN YESTERDAYS REGRET AND TOMORROWS HOPE LIES TODAYS OPPORTUNITY "
I will be waiting for youe reply. ------------- Shashi Praharaj |
Posted By: us121
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 7:57pm
GREAT BASANTJI...
Like OMSHIVAYA I also appreciate the way you coolly answer the person who has different point of view.
TED is not only investment learning center but it is also management learning center.
But the fact is only these people who criticise the ongoing pattern will help keep TED alive and alert. ------------- ABILITY will get u at d top. CHARACTER will retain u at d top |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 8:23pm
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Absolutely, this is exactly what I sai dlong time back too. Democracy and good corp. governance, loads of arguements and healthy fights is and shall always be TED's cornerstone. Rest everythinG shall take of itself automatically.
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 8:48pm
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Hi MR US121.
I actually welcome any criticism as they help us to know, what may be others point of view.
We as humans have a tendency to think what we do are correct but that may not always be the case. With the negative feedback which we may get, It helps us to check back the reality. If we still believe that we are correct ... we stand firm with "Conviction" with the knowledge of what may go wrong. If we see that we may be wrong, then we may stand back, cut our position and learn from that experience of where we went wrong.
It also shows how strong is one mentally. The biggest Example in this respect recently was Saurav Ganguly (I am NOT saying this because I am from Kolkata).
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: sunny_agarwal
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 10:42pm
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Dear sir, i just checked ur proflie and that made my approach more cautious and respectful towards you. after reading ur message i very well understood about the approach that u have towards markets and ur desire to hunt for new stocks and themes and to constantly evalutae ur way of investing.
sir, i have posted a message to all the members of TED, Tht even goes to You. Pls do go through it.
Sir, i would like to know if u head any particular branch. we run a garment export house too and have syndicate bank as our lead banker, in gurgaon. we are one of the key clients of the gurgaon branch. would like to know more from you.
looking forward to have a long and fruitful association with u and ur ideas.
thanks and regards
sunny agarwal ------------- Be the change you wish to see in this world!!! |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 10:49pm
| Who is the "sir" here that you are referring to? |
Posted By: sunny_agarwal
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 10:54pm
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vivek ji, sir referred to Mr. shashi Prahraj. The messsage was for him.
------------- Be the change you wish to see in this world!!! |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 12:57pm
Yes Shashi ji is an exceptional person no doubt.
On a sidenote, (constant evaluation) tenure may differ from person to person. For a long-term investor of 10 year view, constant evaluation may mean every year not every 6 months.
Btw Sunny ji, if you go thru other profiles, I am sure you shall find many more hidden gems.
Keep looking and Good luck, and most of all welcome to TED. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: s_praharaj
Date Posted: 12/Mar/2007 at 9:39pm
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Thanx Sunny for the kind words.
I read your mails and devoloped a liking towards your way of thinking. You are intelligent and with TED as company, and knowledgable people like Basant, Bubble Vision, Om Shivayaji, Kulman, Vivek Sukhani and many others, and primarily with your dedication, I am sure you will go a long way.
Its the company, which many a times determine our destiny. If one is in bad company, inspite of his brillance and knowledge, he may go waste. An average person, in a good company and will to succeed can see great heights.
I have learned a lot and still learning a lot from TED.
I am a member of TED in my individual capacity, and I don't want to talk about my organisation in this forum.
I hope you understand. ------------- Shashi Praharaj |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 14/Mar/2007 at 11:32pm
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Thanks guys your feedback & some interesting conversation to read.. I was out for the past couple of days... Hence was not able to respond.. ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 15/Jun/2007 at 3:18am
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Hi, I have done some Portfolio restructuring. Here is what my latest portfolio looks like.
Had worked on it for past 2-3 months . ESOP from my company that i had to exercise skewed my portfolio... Sold out of it and accumulated some of my favorite stocks when they were attractive - Accumulated some more NW18 around 450s - Cleaned out of some stocks like AB Nuvo, Zicom, Zee where I did not have meaningful position and used them to strengthen my positions in Nucleus & ENIL I have around 10% cash and looking at deploying it sometime in a month or so.. I have my eyes on the Financial sector - On Companies that could benefit from the inflow of masses onto the equity markets.. As equity participation is at a nascent stage and if we are seeing at what's happening to quity markets in China this is a very big growth story.. Companies that are Brokerages, Investment houses & AMCs ... In the next 5-7 yrs one of Indian companies should become like Morgan Stanley($93B), Meryll Lynch($78B), Capital One ($36B), JP Morgan ($172B ), Wachovia ($103B).. My bet - Reliance Capital, India Bulls Invst, India Infoline, IL & FS Investmart, Geojit in that order. Any ideas ? ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Jun/2007 at 9:34am
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WHy is http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=946 - Kotak bank missing from that list. I think this hold maximum promise with relaince capital as an integrated financial play.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 1:14pm
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In the next 5-7 yrs one of Indian companies should become like Morgan Stanley($93B), Meryll Lynch($78B), Capital One ($36B), JP Morgan ($172B ), Wachovia ($103B).. My bet - Reliance Capital, India Bulls Invst, India Infoline, IL & FS Investmart, Geojit in that order. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I would bet on Reliance Capital if u r looking for Merill Lynch of India..its just that they are late entrance in investment banking..but i believe Anil Ambani would make it big. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: monu_duggad
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 5:35pm
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Sexy portfolio boss...i like ur confidence in holding only 5 scrips....!!
Do well !! ------------- If you think you can,You Can |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 10:49pm
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Vivek - Holding both NW18 and TV18 in a portfolio (Equitydesk XI included) doesn't make sense, more so in your case, because you have decided to hold only 5 stocks. If you had a tough time deciding on leaving out a particular stock, I would recommend put it in the portfolio and getting rid of either TV18 or NW18. The fate of NW18 and TV18 will be similar. Over a long term, I don't expect their performances to be different.
If you are holding NW18 because it is a 'value' buy and you like other businesses that comes with it (like Home shopping, new businesses etc), then go ahead and hold 47% in NW18. Get rid of TV18.
Now if you are holding TV18 because you think that NW18, being a holding company might underperform in the short term, then get rid of NW18 and keep only TV18.
Having NW18 and TV18 in your portfolio is like buying 2 train tickets - one in a general compartment and one in an AC compartment. If the growth engine derails, both the compartments will go off the track. And If everything goes well, both the compartments will eventually reach the station. One compartment has more frills than the other - that's all.
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Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 11:13pm
Basantji, It is certainly one to consider. But looks like Kotak is not very aggressive as Rel Cap or India bulls . Is that correct ? ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 11:16pm
Valuations have run up a bit in the recent months or so.. I would want to get in around 900 or so..May be I will get it at that range.. Lets see... ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 11:24pm
I get your point smartcat.. The reason I am holding Tv18 is because it is the best to play with good growth and an additional CAS kicker as it comes along. I hold NW18 as it offers value and for its holding in GBN(which TV18 does not have) which is very exciting too.. I am not very interested in other things like HSN that much.. I could very well convert my NW18 to GBN if at some point GBN comes to a reasonable price.. I am only playing NW18 as a proxy for GBN more than proxy for TV18.. I don't think it is a significant risk to hold 2 companies from same stable..if both have their own growth path(TV18 & GBN being) etched.. ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 11:51pm
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Valuations have run up a bit in the recent months or so.. I would want to get in around 900 or so..May be I will get it at that range.. Lets see... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I dont think Rel Cap will get there...maybe around 950 could be a good price..
I am also playing NW18 as a proxy for GBN.. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 11:59pm
Thanks Monu ji ! Special thanks to Omji & Basant ji for helping me get conviction to convert my major IT holding to other stocks that I hold for which I have already started seeing the benefit... ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 1:17am
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I guess your thinking is - NW18 alone won't adequately reflect this.
How on earth did you manage your cut your portfolio size to 5 stocks? I have been trying to achieve portfolio concentration from quite some time now - and so far, I've been successful in cutting down the size to 8 stocks! Getting rid of old favorites has been a tough one for me.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2007 at 10:25am
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SMart Cat: In the process of portfolio concentration it is easy to get out of the winners but the real pain is when we try to cut down on the losers! The hope (mera bhaav kab ayega) holds us back from doing the right things. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 17/Jun/2007 at 2:01pm
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Portfolio concentration is the best money making lesson I have learnt on TED. I don't think you are stressing this enough in your posts! It is a myth that holding only 10 stocks will make a portfolio volatile. I track the performance of Equitydesk XI everyday and the way it handles volatility is brilliant.
Eventhough I am not as bullish on the three musketeers of TED (NW18, TV18 and Pantaloon) as everbody else, my portfolio is giving a good fight to Equitydesk XI (after I reduced the number of stocks in my portfolio).
.
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Jun/2007 at 11:50pm
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I track the performance of Equitydesk XI everyday
---------------------------------------------------------------
Wow! ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 17/Jun/2007 at 5:56am
It is not that hard smartcat ji as it looked to me when I started..but is little bit hard from 20+ stocks.. Slowly over a period of 6 months or so I started to roll over stocks to my core stocks based on - conviction and price one by one.. I know 5 stocks ..is little bit scary for me too .. to see my portfolio in a single page in icicidirect without having to scroll down ... But I still have 10% cash & I will be bringing 1 or 2 more new stocks into my portfolio with that.. Nevertheles .. my top 3 still contribute to near to 60-65% of my portfolio.. and I know volatility is something I will have to face.. But I think I should be able to face that for the longer haul.. ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Jun/2007 at 7:42am
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RJ has almost close to Rs 1000 crores invested in his top 3 stocks. That is 45% of his portfolio and we know how easy it would be for him to get out! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 17/Jun/2007 at 11:39am
This freaked me out too!
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Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2007 at 11:22pm
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Hi guys, I just returned from my little more than a week long vacation in Maui, Hawaii. Hard to leave the island.. Beautiful Beaches for snorkeling, great sea side cottage, no a/c, plenty of sea breeze..Detached from rest of the world.. Though I took my laptop with me and had wireless connection at the room, I did not bother to connect and check my portfolio or sensex all 1 week.. what a relaxing thing it is... I remember my previous vacation last year and year before that.. I at least used to check on my portfolio when sensex opens.. But this one was different.. I owe it to TED for enabling me to truly be detached and enjoy my vacation on the feeling that my stocks are good and do not require constant baby-sitting.. Thanks TED & TEDdies ! I have lots to catch up reading though... Cheers, Vivek ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2007 at 11:45pm
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Welcome back Vivekkumar jee. Delighted to know that you enjoyed your vacation with absolute emotional detachment to Mr. Market.
By the way...have you bought that resort on a private island off Hawaii? ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2007 at 12:43pm
| Hey vivek, did you manage to do the hula hoops? |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2007 at 12:46pm
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Hi Vivek, Welcome back, good to know that you had an interesting holiday !! ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2007 at 4:22am
I wish I could Kulman ji.... My wife keeps dreaming that i read and talk about Warren Buffet and Lynch that I would also become rich one day and would be able to buy her a resort in Hawaii ... Lets see... No harm in dreaming right ?  ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2007 at 4:23am
Nope.. I stopped with seeing them dance... Did not want to embarrass them by my dancing...;-) ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2007 at 4:24am
Thanks India Bull ji ! Feels good to be back too... ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Sep/2007 at 7:28pm
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..... i read and talk about Warren Buffet and Lynch that I would also become rich one day and would be able to buy her a resort in Hawaii ...
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Sir, resort or no resort, you have already developed 'emotional detachment' which is equivalent to heavenly bliss as per some spiritual gurus. Enjoying life's everyday little pleasures is more crucial.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Sep/2007 at 8:01pm
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Great thought Kulmanji. Welcome back Vivekji. Your trip to Hawai seems to have done some magic on you. If this is the secret then all of us could spend some money and be there at Hawai. Problem is if we go to Hawai and am not detached we may have to come back in Hawai chappals (slippers)!!!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 05/Sep/2007 at 9:39pm
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hi vivekkumar did you ride the waves i hear that there are some monster waves in hawaii ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 05/Sep/2007 at 10:16pm
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Thanks Basantji ! and good joke with the Hawaii slippers.. In fact all beach going beautiful bikini clad gals & dudes only wear that kind of slippers.. only that it is not called Hawaii slippers there , they call it flip-flops.. weird guys... No Tiger ji.. I am not that good swimmer.. so don't try surfing.. I find lots of fun in snorkeling though... ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:24am
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Hi,
My latest portfolio for discussion
PRIL - 30.7%
Kotak - 17.5 %
TV18 - 16.7%
YesBank - 16.3%
Axis Bank - 12.9%
Centurion Bank - 5.8%
Cash - 3.9%
PRIL, Axis, Kotak, Yes and Centurion have raised fast in past 3-4 months tilting the balance towards them.
Couple of thoughts in my mind are :
- Want to add to Axis or enter Bluestar with cash
- Consider staying or moving out from CentBank. I bought it for a 35-40% grower with a take over target. CentBank has already done very well for me in past 3-4 months. Don't know if most of take over premium has already been taken in. Am in double mind to stay or to move on to something like Axis or Bluestar.
Welcome your comments.
------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 19/Jan/2008 at 2:32am
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Great portfolio Vivek jee. If I were you, I would exit CBOP and put that amount into Axis. Also, I would try making a choice between Kotak and Yes Bank. Rest all looks fine. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 19/Jan/2008 at 11:42am
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Am in double mind to stay or to move on to something like Axis or Bluestar.
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If concentration is the strategy, then Axis. Else Blue Star. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: gemseeker
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2008 at 12:09pm
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Around 52.5 % of your portfolio is sitting in the banking sector. Try diversifying across sectors. You can have a look at companies like
Great Offshore, Aban Offshore in Rigs/Vessels Sector
Elecon, Praj, Thermax in Engg. Sector
Ferro Alloys (Platinum Mines discovered), Guj. Mineral, Deccan Gold (Gold Mines), NMDC in Mining sector -- Speculative/Cyclic Sector
Bartronics in RFID, SMart Chips sector
Banking, Media and Retail are booming sectors but betting more than 50% on One sector is Risky
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