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basant
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Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 18403
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   Posted: 26/Jun/2008 at 10:36pm |
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These arabs will extract their pound (barrell) of flesh (oil) see how they blamed speculation a couple of days back in Jeddah and now this new fuel (pun intended) to the fire.
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gwhunting
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Joined: 07/Dec/2007
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Posts: 140
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Posted: 26/Jun/2008 at 11:06pm |
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And he even says crude market is well surprised what an as$h#(#..
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PrashantS
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Posted: 26/Jun/2008 at 10:03am |
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there may be a policy announcment around the corner ...which will put an end to all this ... has anyone heard of the Hunt brothers....it was a silver speculation
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ndzapak
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Joined: 13/May/2007
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Posts: 229
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Posted: 26/Jun/2008 at 10:31am |
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Billionaire Warren Buffett says he believes supply and demand, not market speculation, is what's driving oil prices to new heights.
Oil futures fell Wednesday after the Energy Department said the nation's supplies of fuel and oil were larger than expected last week, but prices remain above $130 a barrel.
Buffett told CNBC in a live interview that today's prices reflect a lack of oil in the world. Some people have suggested that curbing speculation in oil contracts could dramatically lower the price of oil.
And at least nine bills proposing limits on that oil speculation have been introduced in Congress in recent weeks.
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the Equitydesk is the best
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gwhunting
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Posted: 26/Jun/2008 at 10:59am |
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I beg to differ with him.. If oil prices were driven by supply and demand why these drastic changes in oil prices? Is the world suddenly consuming more and consumes less the next day?
I dont know by how much are the oil prices are jacked up but they are certainly jacked up.
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experteye
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Joined: 20/Mar/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 496
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Posted: 26/Jun/2008 at 11:59am |
OIL IS BOILING AGAIN...................
Why is the oil market last night spooked by Libya's threat to limit oil exports in response to US political threats?
Libya, producing close to 2m bopd (or about 2% global output), is Africa's third largest oil producer (below Algeria, Angola and above Nigeria).
If the world is to lose Libya's 2m bopd, we estimate about 67% of global spare capacity will be wiped out, thus last night's 4% surge in crude futures.
Reality is that global oil production has remained static at 81m bopd since 2004, while demand has grown at 1% cagr to over 85m bopd despite a tripling in oil prices.
Why? Many of the world's biggest oil fields have gone into irreversible decline (See page 5 of presentation), and most recent oil discoveries tend to be small (See page 6), with inferior economy of scale (i.e., higher unit extraction costs), thus our inability to fully recharge the global supply system in the past few years.
This situation will likely worsen over time, as we could still see high oil prices even with demand destruction (by the way, Asia now consumes more oil than US). Why? To have falling oil prices, we need higher supply than demand. Falling demand doesn't necessarily spell falling prices if global supply is falling even faster.
Our recent benchmarking studies have also demonstrated (see attached) that oil companies operating margin and return on capital employed have actually not increased much despite surging oil prices.
While global oil companies are reporting blockbuster headline profits, their share price valuations (although outperforming other sectors) have been de-rated because these blockbuster profits are accompanied by massive capex increases. If we factor in the fact that these blockbuster profits now increasing come from high risk countries such as Nigeria, Russia, Kazakhstan, etc., then oil companies haven't actually increased their risk-adjusted return-on-capital employed despite surging oil prices.
The world is not enough and we are facing a full-blown energy crisis.
Cheers,
Gordon Kwan
Head of China Energy Research
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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.
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paragdesai
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Joined: 22/Oct/2007
Location: India
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Posts: 837
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Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 1:45pm |
[QUOTE=kulman] As per a theory, Crude Oil won't correct before hitting stop loss levels of USD 142~144. Many hedge funds are short big time since 120 level.
So it's going to be Amarnath err Amaranth Yatra time.
Kulmanji,
First part of your theory has worked. OIL reach all most USD 142. Now hoping for second part to start.
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PrashantS
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Joined: 14/Oct/2006
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Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 4:13pm |
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not only hedge funds many banks are long on oil coz that is the only place their making money ...sooner or later it will burst and a fund like amarnath will tank like it did in 2006
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