Joined: 13/Oct/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3542
Posted: 17/Nov/2006 at 2:15pm
thks for a gr report sahay and basant as 1250rooms come up ihl,
and the smaller listed cos and mncs are also going to increas
rooms so i feel an arr of 6500-7000 would be more realistic. that
still translates into a mkt cap of 1000crs,an execptionally ood mngnt
can see the mkt cap still higher.chennaiwill be room surplus by 09
while hyd will continue to be room def.i did buy my first lot last week
when i heard the merger news.
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
Posted: 17/Nov/2006 at 8:51pm
Never said I did not have a good view but Leela seems discovered while Viceroy's story is yet to be out in public!
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
Joined: 13/Oct/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3542
Posted: 17/Nov/2006 at 9:08pm
viceroy should be a 300crs+ insales co by 2009 with a bottomline of
40crs+ considering the np margin is at approx15% thus an eps of 10and
an pe ratio of 9 at the current price cannot beruled out working it
backwards 300crs into46 roughly gives us a mkt cap of 1380crs close to
the figure yu have suggested
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
Posted: 18/Nov/2006 at 5:06pm
Time and not timing is the key to making money - Warren Buffet
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
I believe that as rule of thumb the cost of adding a room in the hotel industry is typically 1000 times the daily rack rate. So if Viceroy is adding 960 rooms with an average rate of say Rs. 7000, we are looking at an investment of 672 crores.
The company has already diluted equity and issued shares/warrants to ICICI Ventures and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (around Rs. 80 a share). Add to that additional debt of 500 crores to fund the massive room expansion. The prospects for rapid EPS increase dont look too bright.
EIH (Oberoi) is a classic example of a hotel group whose bottomline was dragged by debt for a long time.
I am bullish about the Indian hotel industry but I still have some doubts about Viceroy.
P.S. This is my first post. I have been following The Equity Desk since its inception and must congratulate Basant for creating an excellent forum for reasoned and incisive analysis of Indian stocks.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum