Viceroy Hotels - Time to check in!
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
Forum Discription: These are companies operating in growing markets having have certain niches or specific attributes like new sector plays. These are emerging multibaggers with high risks and high rewards.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=588
Printed Date: 18/Apr/2025 at 9:19am
Topic: Viceroy Hotels - Time to check in!
Posted By: Equity Buff
Subject: Viceroy Hotels - Time to check in!
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 7:48pm
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Basantjee,
Is your report on Viceroy Hotels ready ? Await your posting of report.
Thanks. ------------- "Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies". Peter Lynch. |
Replies:
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 7:57pm
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On a lighter note...EquityBuff....have you already checked-in, reserved the rooms, or would decide only after Basantjee's report?
As far as I'm concerned I wish to stay in this hotel on long-term basis! (But waiting for off-season discount offers!)
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 8:00pm
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Viceroy’s 305 Room five star hotels situated in the banks
Viceroy’s new capacities will be ready for occupancy in Q3 FY08-09 onwards and will add around 960 new rooms by March 09.company already raised a over 120Cr as equity capital and proposes to raise over 500Cr Rs as Debt . Once they complete all their new projects. Viceroy will end up with 1250Rooms by March 09. Viceroy Board approved merger of its group companies with itself, which are operating in restaurant biz with 10 outlets in Viceroy has made a franchisee agreement with With over 1250 room size Viceroy Can able to post strong numbers in FY 09-10. I think with kind of expansion plans the company has laid and growth in this sector one could look at investing in this company with longer term horizon. ------------- Vishal |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 10:19pm
| Thank you for that clear analysis. Viceroy is a dark horse at Rs 102 and should be accumulated by long term investors.ALong with http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=126 - |
Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 10:39pm
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Viceroy’s current average room rate stands at Rs10400 ($240) and having an occupancy rate of 100%. For the FY06 they had debt of 120 cr on their books. And according to my calculations they shld be comfortably doing 17 cr for FY07 and 23 cr for FY08. But the real push in financials will come after FY08 where all the expansion plans which the company has initiated will start kicking to the bottomline. Rest I think Mr.Basant will be able to guide us better.------------- Vishal |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 11:00pm
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You have really provided us good coverage on this stock. I think that for the time being we need not worry on Debt, EPS and PE for Viceroy if rooms are rolled out things will fall into place. Also their association with Marriot would help.
I have discounted occupancy levels and room rent to provide a balanced sense of approach. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Equity Buff
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 10:10am
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Kulman,
I have been convinced on the Viceroy story for sometime but like you am waiting for an off season discount.
 Like the stock market, hotel rates are also at all time highs. Several 5 star hotels in Bombay are now charging USD 350 per night on a base category room and USD 550 per night for a premium category room (Not a suite). Plus it is very difficult to get a base category room these days as they are booked well in advance. Got to know about the above rates yesterday and these rates are much higher than the rates prevailing a month ago when rates were increased initially. Given this it seems to be a great time to get into hotel stocks so maybe I might take an initial exposure in Viceroy today and add more when corrections happen.Basantjees post has further added to my conviction on Viceroy.
Cheers
 ------------- "Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies". Peter Lynch. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 10:41am
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Take one room now and then you could transfer yourself into a larger room in case there is an off season discount. SUppose the discount comes next year then you would have a problem. I normally take half of my position the moment a stock looks interesting and then I keep adding on declines or on better results at same price. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Equity Buff
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 10:57am
Basantjee,
I like your above statement, "on better results at same price", this gives automatic discount.
Rgds. ------------- "Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies". Peter Lynch. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2006 at 2:15pm
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thks for a gr report sahay and basant as 1250rooms come up ihl,
and the smaller listed cos and mncs are also going to increas
rooms so i feel an arr of 6500-7000 would be more realistic. that
still translates into a mkt cap of 1000crs,an execptionally ood mngnt
can see the mkt cap still higher.chennaiwill be room surplus by 09
while hyd will continue to be room def.i did buy my first lot last week
when i heard the merger news.
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2006 at 7:59pm
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Sitting in Bangalore amid all IT people, i can see Hotel Leela minting money,
Basantji - why do you have not so good view on Hotel Leela ? ------------- |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2006 at 8:51pm
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Never said I did not have a good view but Leela seems discovered while Viceroy's story is yet to be out in public! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2006 at 9:08pm
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viceroy should be a 300crs+ insales co by 2009 with a bottomline of
40crs+ considering the np margin is at approx15% thus an eps of 10and
an pe ratio of 9 at the current price cannot beruled out working it
backwards 300crs into46 roughly gives us a mkt cap of 1380crs close to
the figure yu have suggested
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2006 at 10:20pm
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Thanx Basantji...
Is Viceroy a buy or wait-to-fall-then-buy ? How comfortable are its valuations today from buying perspective ? ------------- |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2006 at 5:06pm
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Time and not timing is the key to making money - Warren Buffet ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: PaxEtBonum
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2006 at 8:09pm
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I believe that as rule of thumb the cost of adding a room in the hotel industry is typically 1000 times the daily rack rate. So if Viceroy is adding 960 rooms with an average rate of say Rs. 7000, we are looking at an investment of 672 crores. The company has already diluted equity and issued shares/warrants to ICICI Ventures and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (around Rs. 80 a share). Add to that additional debt of 500 crores to fund the massive room expansion. The prospects for rapid EPS increase dont look too bright. EIH (Oberoi) is a classic example of a hotel group whose bottomline was dragged by debt for a long time. I am bullish about the Indian hotel industry but I still have some doubts about Viceroy. P.S. This is my first post. I have been following The Equity Desk since its inception and must congratulate Basant for creating an excellent forum for reasoned and incisive analysis of Indian stocks. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2006 at 11:14am
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dear basant could yu suggest how viceroy will repay this debt
could they do it from internal accruals which is good oe do they
have to dilute equity again and again, any thoghts on this
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2006 at 11:26am
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I dont think they would have to dilute anymore equity becuase most of the debt currently in the books is mosly working capital whihc they require for day to day operation. As most of the CAPEX they are funding through the money they got from prefernce share allotment to RJ and ICICI ventures. Also the company is getting good amount ARR so paying this debt would not be any concern. ------------- Vishal |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Nov/2006 at 12:12pm
I suggest that for companies like these we should take a broader call. If the underlying business is good all these things fall into place. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 20/Nov/2006 at 12:41pm
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Basantji,
In your view, isn't everything priced in today's share price of viceroy (just like educomp) - or do you think this stock's price is not pricing and hence more chances of an upside ..
I hope you see viceroy as a growth and not value stock..
Can we start nibbling viceroy ?
Thanx !
------------- |
Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 20/Nov/2006 at 6:23pm
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To me its a value stock, the company adding 1250 by 2009 provides a lot of value by sitting on such large landbank. The current growth could come from its bakery and restaurant business for which it has recently formed an alliance. ------------- Vishal |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 27/Nov/2006 at 3:09pm
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viceroy is up on decent volumes today some one is taking delivery is
some one else also seeing value and growth here.any new add ons on
viceroy?
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 27/Nov/2006 at 8:15pm
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I think Viceroy is languishing in a range for quite a some time.(May be our board discussion will boost the price !!!
By the way RJ is bullish on this one and has 12.09 % stake in it. (Thanks to Basantji for the RJ portfolio) ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 08/Dec/2006 at 11:37pm
| well it will break out sooner or later |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2006 at 2:10pm
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Break out or down? Who knows but over the next 1000 days it should definetely be much higher. 1000 days sounds more easy then 3 years! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2006 at 3:57pm
| yea but it has to be higher...may be take out its all time high |
Posted By: BULLSEYE
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2007 at 2:35am
| can some one make it clear y viceroy is valued at 75 times pe at wt valuation it looks cheap to r.j. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2007 at 10:44am
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Company is still in the process of getting its act together and at these market caps the PE's should not matter. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tggyp
Date Posted: 21/Feb/2007 at 4:20pm
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Dear all,
Thi is the best forum i have come across in the lst 10 years of my exp in the stock market as an investor.. though i track the forum everyday due to my work and time constraints i cant be a contributor regularly...
Viceroy is available at abt 87-89 Levels .. ie abt 10% higher then the price Rj paid for the stock.. isnt it a good ime to take a long term position before the stock spurts
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Feb/2007 at 9:57pm
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Company does seem attractive but it could test patience since the financials are not in the best shape right now. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Bobby
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2007 at 2:25pm
| do they have some property in Delhi NCR especially due to 5 yr tax holiday ( budget porposal)& expected inflow due to commonwealth games. |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 06/Mar/2007 at 11:23pm
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Basanthji,
You have mentioned earlier that Hotel Leela is already discovered while Viceroy is yet to be. If somebody has to take a call today for investing, which one would you recommend and why? ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Mar/2007 at 7:41am
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Vceroy is a bit longer term call since the company seems to be getting its act together - property expansion is happening and also none of the big FII's and MF's are invested in this one so whenever they start showing returns that side of the market will act as potential buyers. On the other hand with Leela it is already owed so at most we could do a above market return.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 13/Mar/2007 at 8:28pm
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at the current price which is close to rjs entry point does viceroy make a compelling investment descision.wat could be the mkt cap in say 3-4yrs from now.yu had made an inital reco at 90 odd .so at 77 has this idea only got better? basant could yu pl answer ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2007 at 3:35pm
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did a check up on the holding pattern of viceroy looks like some mutual funds have got on this trainthey are as follows:hsbc midcap eq fund641022shares 1.71%hsbc taxsaver fund198004shares,sundaram leadership fund157454,sundaram smile fund159147wheras pruicicihas sold aliitle over 4 lac shares in two ofits funds.the buying has occured between nov and feb while the selling occured in dec.source money control.com ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2007 at 4:08pm
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HSBC is a smart fund. As i indicated above it does seem interesting at these prices. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: newbie
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 5:40pm
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Do you think Viceroy is still aworthy share to buy.It has not responded in the last few months or so to the high and low of SENSEX?
Do you think it stilla good buy or do you suggest an exit ?
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 6:23pm
Viceroy is still in the buildup stage. It is more of a longer term play rather then otherwise. guess we need to give it time.ALso it should not occupy the top position but should be bought in smaller percentage to Indian Hotels which is the sector leader in this category. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 10:01pm
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hotels will also be affected by the rise of the rupee.ultimately almost every indian co will have tobear the consequences of a rising rupee expect the large importers ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 9:46pm
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for march ending 07 viceroy has increased it sales by almost 50% to51.7 crs compared to 34 crs in06 net profit has increased to4.68 crs compared to 1.71 crs.the restuarant business is yet to be amalgamated with viceroy hotels. does any body have any idea how many hotels are fully operational and how many are yet to be ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 5:05pm
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ALso it should not occupy the top position but should be bought in smaller percentage to Indian Hotels which is the sector leader in this category. [/QUOTE]
My smaller percentage is well settled inside one room.
Few days back I found Infosys has become its partner / room mate.
Though Infosys has managed to get some good bed! ------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: kg
Date Posted: 05/Aug/2007 at 8:07pm
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Guys just wanted to share something which i observed ... Had gone to a new mall which has opened up in Vashi , Navi Mumbai called Galeria . There in the food court section I saw a new shop by the name BreadTalk -good food and very new style of selling pizza and other bread items ...wherein u could walk inside the shop and pick up what u wanted and then pay at the counter .....the prices were very reasonable and the stuff looked really fresh and enticing . So me and my flatmate got inquisite and checked out with the counter girl ( apparently a chinese indian ) about the owner and she just mentioned it is by some Reddy in Andhra Pradesh -- and she told us that there were 2 others one in Malad and Powaii . We checked out the bill and got the address of the site ..breadtalk.com....and when we came back we searched for it and found its a wholly owned subsidiary of Viceroy Hotels .... Being an ardent fan of RJ i could not stop but keep telling my friend that RJ is really a beliver in indian spending power .... here's the link of their global site ...www.breadtalk.com and the link to an article in hindu ..old one ... http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2006/09/27/stories/2006092703480500.htm - http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2006/09/27/stories/2006092703480500.htm
------------- Lets rock |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Aug/2007 at 8:19pm
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I wish companies with such business models were listed. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kg
Date Posted: 05/Aug/2007 at 8:24pm
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Hi basantji ....I dint understand ...its a wholly owned subsidiary of Viceroy Hotels in which RJ has a stake ... ------------- Lets rock |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Aug/2007 at 8:37pm
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I got that and while that makes it really interesting I said that it would have been great to look at pure play restaurant/food plays. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 12:50pm
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With an eye on making it to the top-five club of the Indian hospitality industry, http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1121886&pageid=2 - Viceroy Hotels Ltd (VHL) has set itself a target of logging a turnover of Rs 1,000 crore by 2010, up from just Rs 130 crore in FY07 .
In addition to the four new properties currently under development, which will make this possible, VHL also plans an extension of its current line of business to set up a chain of resorts and spas across the country in the next few years. Properties in Goa and Mysore, spread over 20 and 2 acres, respectively have already been identified. Kerala, Ooty and Puri are also on the radar for the resort foray. The Hyderabad-based group recently carried out a major restructuring exercise, merging nine different entities into VHL to give it the size and focus needed for a shot at the big league. The group will present the first consolidated results this quarter. Currently, VHL has just one 5-star property — the Hyderabad Marriott, with four others under development. It will have a total room inventory upwards of 1,300 across segments in the hospitality business by 2009-10, said Reddy. The group is investing upwards of Rs 1,500 crore on new hotels in Chennai, Bangalore, Visakhapatnam and Hyderabad, all under the Marriott brand name, which will be completed by 2010. Nearly 70% of the group’s turnover will be from the hotels business, while the rest will be from the F&B chain that the company is expanding across the country. VHL has its presence in the F&B business through four outlets each of ‘The Minerva Coffee Shop’ and ‘Blue Fox Restaurant and Bar’, the Bread Talk chain of boutique breads, a franchise of the Singapore-based company with the same name, besides a food court and a restaurant in Hyderabad. VHL will push up the total number of Bread Talk outlets from the current four, three of which are in Mumbai, to 50 over the next three years at a total investment of Rs 50 crore. It is also kicking off the Minerva brand from Mumbai, Reddy said, adding, the Minerva-Blue Fox brand will have 15 outlets by 2010. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 1:39pm
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Wow! This management will beat Kishore Biyani and Raghav Bahl in THINKING BIG!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 1:49pm
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Rakesh Bhaiyya seems to be having that on mind. Execution risks & the cyclical nature of sector would keep the sentiment down as far as PE multiple is concerned. What do you say?
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 2:02pm
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The PE of Indian Hotel will be the bar. Hospitality is a cyclical sector and finally the cycles will play out but right now this is more of an execution stock rather then the PE stock so present year PE might look fancy also for small mkt cap companies PE does not matter. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 9:12pm
| 700 crore revenues from the Hotel business with an occupancy rate of 80% for 1300 rooms means ARR of Rs 18,440 !! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 9:17pm
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Interesting computation but Hotels make money from dining, banquet hall etc still this seems to be a tall order. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 9:29pm
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In the hotel industry, is it better to own the hotel or manage it ?
I believe Marriott is going to manage all the 4 Viceroy properties. How does this work ? What kind of management fees do they charge ?
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 10:07pm
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No idea but as a business model managing hotels is a non capex initiative and hence better. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 6:42am
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Marriott is the largest operator of Hotels in the world in terms of properties. It owns very few of the properties its manages. ------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: kaizenbudhi
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 6:46am
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As per the article of dnaindia, By 2010, the new inventory will place Viceroy among the top five hotel chains in the country, making it perhaps the only one to be present across segments and geographical regions, said Ravi Krishnan, vice-president, VHL.
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Posted By: kaizenbudhi
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2007 at 6:53am
| Results `posted on Moneycontrol/Myiris states the revenues of around 50 crore whereas the article posted mentions 130 crore in FY07. Is the rest from group companies? Any ideas? |
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 26/Feb/2008 at 2:48pm
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Bhai
Price of Viceroy hotel has come down to 73 INR ... has there been any bonus / stock split .....
thnx ------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 26/Feb/2008 at 2:51pm
Market crash has splitted many of the stocks without management doing anything !!
------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 26/Feb/2008 at 2:59pm
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ok bull bhai,
After this correction / crash ...... i am just a new comer on TED but I have a suggestion ..... after these drop in prices can we all try to reconsider or re-evaluate companies in the emerging section
thnx ------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Feb/2008 at 3:09pm
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Companies are re-evaluated when there is a change in fundamentals not because there prices have moved!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 10/May/2008 at 12:25pm
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My original reason for buying this company.
1. The really detailed posts on this thread.
2. I visited the Viceroy Hotel (now called Marriot) in Hyderabad and thought the property should be worth atleast 200 Cr. (Mkt cap was approx 260 cr at that time)
Given that many of the companie's initiatives are at a nascent stage it's Net profit (1.77 Cr) this quarter is not too surprising but i am somewhat dissapointed that the sales turn over remains stagnant.
Mar 07 - 17.31 Cr, Jun 07- 14.33 Cr, Sep 07 - 17.42 Cr, Dec 07 - 20.73 cr , Mar 08 - 20.53
I think another year will give a better idea.
In the meantime i am doing my bit by organizing my team's meeting etc in this hotel.
|
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 10/May/2008 at 12:31pm
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I have stayed in this hotel for 3 months in 2001 . Service was too good, food was excellent, receptionists were good looking and pleasant , over and above I got momento frm the Hotel... Dont know abt present status but somehow market has neglected this story for long time now. ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 10/May/2008 at 12:45pm
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Wow...i did not realize it has been around since 2001.
It seems like the company has been somewhat staid for a long time.
Changing the perception of Mr. Market will take some time.
Explosive sales growth will do no harm i guess.
I always seem to see crowds whenever i visit Viceroy hotel or the restaurants owned by the Viceroy. (Waterfront, Eat Street, Blue Fox etc) Let's see how long (if at all) it takes for this to reflect in the company's numbers and then in it's price.
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Posted By: praveen
Date Posted: 19/May/2008 at 4:30pm
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Just did some quick, back of the envolope calculations based on the discussions of this thread and some googling.
Assumptions
1. 900 Crs in FY-2011-12 (Historically in India, hardly projects of these magnitudes completed on time. 10% discount to management guidance for FY-2010 being reasonable)
2. Fully diluted equity at some 84 crores at 2011-12 assuming furtheer dilution to meet capex needs. (Current at 42 crores)
3. Net Margins at 10% gives an EPS of around Rs 10-11
4. Discounting of 15-20 times on 1 yr forward basis (discounting based on some international peers)
It should then trade at Rs 150 - 200 by Mid 2011 (1 yr forward Discounting)
Disclaimer:- Highly simplistic model
Regards,
Praveen
------------- The quest for knowledge is a never ending Journey |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 21/Feb/2009 at 1:10am
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Yet another quarter of flat sales. Damn!!!
Perhaps the management needs to be fired to get some zip in the numbers.
My suggestion is we need to change the title to "Fire......Run for your life".
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Posted By: RahulB
Date Posted: 24/Feb/2009 at 3:54pm
| I doubt if change in management will help. The competition in Hyderabad market is increasing with each passing year (Novotel, Ista...several others in construction)...this coupled with slowdown in IT, Tourism etc. doesn't augur well for Viceroy |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 24/Feb/2009 at 4:07pm
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No doubt it's tougher now.
But they did miss the boom of the last few years.
Contrast Viceroy with the results of Taj GVK to see the difference in managements.
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 24/Feb/2009 at 4:13pm
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We were thinking little bit high of this stock because Mr. Rakesh had taken stake in this.
Somehow the results have not been so good. So nothing guarantees except the performance and ofcourse EPS. ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 24/Feb/2009 at 10:40am
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I guess you are right. The RJ factor fetched prime time for this stock.
They did make a flurry of annoucements...like the retail venture, eat out restaurents etc.
But ya, so far it's hard to see earnings commensurate to the debt the company has run up. And now, things have just become tougher as RahulB pointed out.
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Posted By: NileshGambhava
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2009 at 11:21pm
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What will be the effect of New Hotels which will be inaugurated in FY09-10? Can any one give me address of New Hotels at Banglore, Chennai?
I am actively researching this script and got some good points. Will share with you guys as soon as I finish it and get some proof for it. ------------- :) |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2009 at 6:29am
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In times of distress the smaller players feel the heat whereas in times of recovery the smaller guys rise the fastest but in these times it pays to stick with the leaders like Indian Hotels and EIH rather then these small players.
If RJ has made alot f money in the markets over the last 15 years then he has also made some very bad investments so we need to really have the fundamental gameplan before us and RJ's investment in this company should mean nothing whether we should risk our incremental money into this company.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: NileshGambhava
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2009 at 8:32pm
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Currently they have one 5-Start Hotel in Market Cap is 67 Cr. + 480 Cr. Debt so EV is around 550 Cr. Net Asset is more than 600 Cr. & Addition of new 3 Hotel may increase it to 1400 to 1500 Cr. Book Value is 55 Rs. & CMP is 16. Does it have Margin of Safety? Promoters, HSBC, Anil Ambani, RJ bought it at an average price of 80 Rs. but thanks to Bear Market, CMP is 16 Rs. I want to purchase it for 4 to 5 years and for the target of 150 to 200 Rs. Is it worth Buying? Is the target achievable? UPDATED ON 14-05-2009
F.Y. 2008-09 performance is very bad. Have to reconsider above calculation again. ------------- :) |
Posted By: RahulB
Date Posted: 15/Mar/2009 at 12:55pm
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Story is good on paper, but do think about the following: - will the upcoming projects go live as planned? - how will they raise additional capital? - Rooms in HYD, BLR, Chennai are already fast turning into oversupply zone...how will these new properties make money - value of net assets here is hotel property/land - how can one trust the valuation? further, how can this be monetized in the current environment if the promoters wants to exist some of the options to raise cash |
Posted By: NileshGambhava
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2009 at 10:56pm
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I have emailed company 3 weeks back for exact date for new Hotel,
They replied same day, Hyderabad will be started in April 09 & Chennai & Banglore in Octo 09
Currently they dont need as most of work is completed, Few weeks back they took loan from HDFC of 45 Cr. Rs.
I think that Hotel Business doesnt need more working capital, Ofcourse after building hotel.
India has 1.3 Lakh rooms in premimum category, USA has more than 40 Lakh, China has more than 11 Lakh, Only Shanghai has more than 1.5 Lakh rooms in premimum category so I think still there will be shortage once economic cycle turns up...
------------- :) |
Posted By: cooldude
Date Posted: 27/Apr/2009 at 4:00pm
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Viceroy Hotels website still carries the info that Marriott Chennai is going to open in April 2009 when April is almost over. Go to Marriott website and there the info is that it is going to open in October 2010. This is one example of how most Indian companies are indifferent to public opinion. SEBI should also crack the whip on companies giving misinformation instead of information. ------------- You can't see the future through the rearview mirror - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 27/Apr/2009 at 4:14pm
| Why to look at Viceroy when Indian Hotel can be mult-bagger from current levels if economy improves? |
Posted By: chaudhuris
Date Posted: 27/Apr/2009 at 6:41am
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Taj GVK and Sayaji Hotels are also decent choices. Has anyone tried seeing how they stack up against Viceroy and against each other as well? ------------- Only when the last tree has been cut down Only when the last river has been poisoned Only when the last fish has been caught Only then will you find that money cannot be eaten. ~ Cree Philosophy |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 27/Apr/2009 at 8:38am
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Taj GVK would be good defensive play..5.5% dividend yield with stable earnings at PE 6.5..havn't studied the expansion plans ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Apr/2009 at 10:53am
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Please start a new thread on the same with some details if you can arrange for that.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 27/Apr/2009 at 11:30am
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Sure Basantji!! I will do that once in sometime.. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 04/May/2009 at 2:33am
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As has been the norm with Viceroy...
Q on Q Sales down from 20 cr to 13 cr.
Profit figures are miniscule as always. (about 1cr)
While future plans and all that is fine...can it not work on improving it's sales figures atleast?
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Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 04/May/2009 at 9:08am
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i think given the current downturn...things would improve only from here .. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 04/May/2009 at 9:24am
That's the thing right.....it did not do well during the last few years when all hotels prospered and now it can't do well anyway.
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Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 04/May/2009 at 9:57am
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all hotels cos have reported drop in sales and profits..i like Taj GVK for its stability of earnings and consistent dividend record ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: KACHAM
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 8:08am
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Yeah.. Taj GVK is the best .. u get dividend and also discount coupons (25%) with the annual report...
------------- Jai Telangana, Jai Jai Telangana |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 11/May/2009 at 5:39pm
| Viceroy is a good buy now. It has already risen over 50% from its recent lows of 15 rs and still there is good buying interest. Market cap now is only some 100 cr. The smart thing management has done is to transfer management of hotels to international operators like Marriott. While this gives the hotels great exposure, higher room rates, lower maintenance/running costs further it diverts management attention to focus on increasing # of rooms under management rather than actual hotel management itself. ROE is a fluctuating figure and is dependent on debt on books. Hotels can take large debt just like airlines, because of the collateral value of their assets. But they don't have the liability of airlines as the brand still carries some weight and adds to occupancy rates and room rates. So it is a terrific buy from these levels and at least a 10 bagger in the next 4 years. RJ of course is still holding his stake, and he has acquired at much higher levels. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 6:12pm
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It has reported EPS of about Rs 1.56 for whole year..Crimson do have an estimate for FY 10? ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 10:01am
| Well I'm not going by EPS figures. They have lot of debt on books, and that could lead to a smaller EPS figure with high interest payments. Further wait for another year or two and the new properties would kick in adding to the top and bottom line. In the bull run the share had gone to 140+ rs, and now its available for 26-27rs. so even if you buy now, forget EPS, you can make 4-5 times your money. The funny thing is instead of focussing on the EPS, it makes more sense to focus on purchase price. I bought this at 18rs in this fall, and now am up 50%, with no idea on EPS growth etc. In other shares where i did all calculations etc on EPS and future growth I'm negative after 4 years investing in them!! |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 10:34am
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I was asking bcz i got hold of a ICICI Direct report which says they would FY09 EPS of 1.88 and Rs 4 for next yr. But it has not reached even revised target. I would plan buying arnd Rs 20 but looks strong these days ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 11:13am
| At EPS of 1.5 thier PAT would be some 6cr (4.4 cr shares outstanding) while at 4 it would be close to 16 cr. But if you see in 08 itself their EBITA was 30 cr out of which almost 22 cr was in interest and depretiation payments and they posted a PAT of 6 cr. at 28 rs a share, the p/e works to about 18 which is a bit expensive. at 20 rs a share it would be ideal. but keep in mind that once the 3 properties com in line and general market conditions improve then their eps can go upto 20 rs also. in which case a price of 400+ cannot be ruled out. So its risk-reward, if you wait for 20 rs, you might not get it at all before it shoots up 2 years later. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 11:21am
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Look at managements recent statements. Things would look up from jun-jul. http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/views/see-turnaround-basedjune-july-bookings-viceroy-hotels/397280 So i'm sure this stock would go back to 100+ levels. Hence i think its a great buy and probably the best in the hotels sector. |
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 11:59am
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Its very important to buy a stock at the right price. Margin of Safety is the biggest factor. Right companies bought at expensive prices will take very long to make profits. As they say - Its always good to buy the right company, but its also important at what price you buy.. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 18/May/2009 at 11:04am
| My avg price now is close to the CMP and i intend to hold for atleast another 3-4 years to reap the benefits... |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2009 at 5:30pm
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hey ikjain,
Could you write with little less no. of smileys..could not read your comments properly in one go..what are you trying to say that this will not go up? why should it reach 66 in next few days? ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2009 at 5:59pm
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ikjain - Please stop spamming or we will have to suspend you. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2009 at 7:00pm
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no warning dear...i just found that even a single smiley could have been enough to make your feelings clear ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2009 at 7:35pm
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I would advise you to go through do's and dont's for this site. We are here for investing rather than making quick buck ...if you have solid reason for Viceroy to move up...present facts & figures, rationale and logic for your targets..this is not like MC message board where it goes on uncontrolled... hope this helps!! ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2009 at 8:08pm
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if you feel that viceroy is such a great business then the best way to confirm is to visit one of their properties see how they r doing , occupancy etc see how they are superior or inferior to indian hotels and then decide to invest or disinvest.hope this helps ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2009 at 9:59pm
| Is anyone tracking Oriental Hotels? Pls share any info you have apart from the results. They had a property in Bangalore. When is it getting operational? |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2009 at 10:38pm
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Bangalore and Chennai properties are on track..and would be operational on schedule..some slight delay here and thr. and demand is certainly slack but will improve only from here... ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |