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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Topic: MNC Stocks - Safety vs. Growth.
    Posted: 11/Apr/2008 at 10:23pm
Originally posted by nitin_jagtap

Originally posted by basant

SAP with that kind of a turnover does not make sense. I agree.
 
 
More than the turnover what is important when it comes to SAP implementation is the way it is implemented there are instances where large corporates who can afford SAP implemented it but it was more of a pain than gain for the users and effeciency in general ...so the key is the way it is implemented ....btw we also have different SAP versions for different businesses and also SAP exclusively for SMEs.
 
Yes, thats what matters.
 
By the way Nitin bhai, have you looked at Glaxo Pharma. Its cash and investment balance is simply mindblowing.
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nitin_jagtap
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Quote nitin_jagtap Replybullet Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 5:51pm
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

[QUOTE=nitin_jagtap][QUOTE=basant]
 
 
By the way Nitin bhai, have you looked at Glaxo Pharma. Its cash and investment balance is simply mindblowing.
 
Yes Vivek and so they had given a good dividend also while there is no doubt on the BS value of the company ...I had seen GSK before deciding on Wyeth and Novartis as it was difficult to choose between the entire pack had to use some numbers and some inputs from their international operations....however one area of concern for this MNC pharma group is the setting up on 100% subsidaries ..if thats trend picks up we could see some impact of revenues ...case in example is Pfizer.


Edited by nitin_jagtap - 12/Apr/2008 at 6:09pm
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kannanravi1
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Quote kannanravi1 Replybullet Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 9:37pm
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

Originally posted by nitin_jagtap

Originally posted by basant

SAP with that kind of a turnover does not make sense. I agree.
 
 
More than the turnover what is important when it comes to SAP implementation is the way it is implemented there are instances where large corporates who can afford SAP implemented it but it was more of a pain than gain for the users and effeciency in general ...so the key is the way it is implemented ....btw we also have different SAP versions for different businesses and also SAP exclusively for SMEs.
 
Yes, thats what matters.
 
By the way Nitin bhai, have you looked at Glaxo Pharma. Its cash and investment balance is simply mindblowing.
 
Vivek,
  Glaxos investment balance is truely mindblowing, but their net current assets is negative. This is not bad at all...infact I love companies that can run their business on negative net current assets. They are virtually running their day-to-day business of others cash!! An extreme case of this is Moody's corp in which Buffet is the biggest shareholder. They have been maintaining a negative equity for a long long time and yet they generate amazing cash flows. On a -780 million equity they generated 710 million free cash flow!! They are virtually running their whole business on other's cash!! But they can afford to, since they have such a bullet proof moat. Glaxo also is a great business, as they are able to generate increasing amounts of earnings on virtuatually very little reinvestment in gross block!! This is truely amazing.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 8:10am
Originally posted by nitin_jagtap

Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

[QUOTE=nitin_jagtap][QUOTE=basant]
 
 
By the way Nitin bhai, have you looked at Glaxo Pharma. Its cash and investment balance is simply mindblowing.
 
Yes Vivek and so they had given a good dividend also while there is no doubt on the BS value of the company ...I had seen GSK before deciding on Wyeth and Novartis as it was difficult to choose between the entire pack had to use some numbers and some inputs from their international operations....however one area of concern for this MNC pharma group is the setting up on 100% subsidaries ..if thats trend picks up we could see some impact of revenues ...case in example is Pfizer.
 
When it comes to MNC pharma, my first choice will always happen to be Abbott india Limited. I used to like Merck, but thankfully didnt invest a decent amount in that company. Merck happens to be one of the lowest price to book stocks in MNC pharma space.
 
Now Wyeth is a tricky choice. however, I know of some good old aged relatives of mine who are outright fans of Wyeth. Wyeth pays a great dividend. However if I remember correctly, when I was forwarded the Annual report of Wyeth last year for comments, I had written 'disturbing P/L'. Its the P/L which makes me tilt for abbott rather than Mercks, Wyeths, Glaxos.
 
Nitin bhai, will you be able to explain Wyeth's case over Novartis?
 
Thanks and Regards,
 
Vivek
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 8:25am
Originally posted by kannanravi1

Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

Originally posted by nitin_jagtap

Originally posted by basant

SAP with that kind of a turnover does not make sense. I agree.
 
 
More than the turnover what is important when it comes to SAP implementation is the way it is implemented there are instances where large corporates who can afford SAP implemented it but it was more of a pain than gain for the users and effeciency in general ...so the key is the way it is implemented ....btw we also have different SAP versions for different businesses and also SAP exclusively for SMEs.
 
Yes, thats what matters.
 
By the way Nitin bhai, have you looked at Glaxo Pharma. Its cash and investment balance is simply mindblowing.
 
Vivek,
  Glaxos investment balance is truely mindblowing, but their net current assets is negative. This is not bad at all...infact I love companies that can run their business on negative net current assets. They are virtually running their day-to-day business of others cash!! An extreme case of this is Moody's corp in which Buffet is the biggest shareholder. They have been maintaining a negative equity for a long long time and yet they generate amazing cash flows. On a -780 million equity they generated 710 million free cash flow!! They are virtually running their whole business on other's cash!! But they can afford to, since they have such a bullet proof moat. Glaxo also is a great business, as they are able to generate increasing amounts of earnings on virtuatually very little reinvestment in gross block!! This is truely amazing.
 
These companies thrive like this only. Perhaps the best way to increase RoE is get finance at zero cost from suppliers, sell your wares for cash to your customers and if possible get all sort of safety deposits from your CFAs, stockists and squeeze them hard for cash. In short, milk your brand to the maximum. Devote a decent percentage to keep the brand hit and fit, pay a very decent percentage back to the owners and repeat this process over and over again. Absolute ruthless and no brain style of working.........
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 8:50am
Vivek bhai

There is no denying the fact that MNCs do leverage their brand equity & are virtual cash cows. Most of them enjoy what is called as oligopolies.

There are smart investors who bought these companies (which were mainly forced to list) at virtually throw away prices during 70s/80s to make huge multibaggers.

Under current environment, how do you look at following concerns:

  1. My observation is that most of these companies trade at valuations which discounts all that we know about their strengths. So one is not able to make substantial capital gains out of them.
  2. Moving profitable businesses by setting up unlisted subsidiaries.
  3. Many operate more as branches of their parent & not as business profit centres as shareholders would like them to be.  So in some cases one comes across issues such transfer pricing, indirect siphoning off etc..







Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 9:48am
Originally posted by kulman

Vivek bhai

There is no denying the fact that MNCs do leverage their brand equity & are virtual cash cows. Most of them enjoy what is called as oligopolies.

There are smart investors who bought these companies (which were mainly forced to list) at virtually throw away prices during 70s/80s to make huge multibaggers.

Under current environment, how do you look at following concerns:

  1. My observation is that most of these companies trade at valuations which discounts all that we know about their strengths. So one is not able to make substantial capital gains out of them.
  2. Moving profitable businesses by setting up unlisted subsidiaries.
  3. Many operate more as branches of their parent & not as business profit centres as shareholders would like them to be.  So in some cases one comes across issues such transfer pricing, indirect siphoning off etc..


Thats why you have to cherry-pick among those as well.
 
Thats why I am not going for timken india, avery india, bata india( although liked that it has at last declared a dividend).rayban sun optics etc. thats why I have curtailed my plans for Procter and Gamble though at one point of time I wanted to convert all my levers and ITCs into procter.
 
The difference between your thought process and my thought process is quite simple. You think at CMP, most of the strengths are in-built, whereas I believe at CMPs most of the fears are in-built.
 
Also, these concerns which you have enumerated, dont grip all and sundry MNCs. The reason why prices wont move fast, and scope of capital gains may appear to be limited, is that these managements dont want them to. Go through Foseco's Annual Report and read their policy on disclosure norms. They clearly state that they will not say anything to the analyst community what they have not told to the exchanges. tell me, why shall an analyst bother to go to a company if he is not provided information thats not available with general investors. their concern for price-sensitive information is so tremendous that they have thoroughly inked their policy regarding it and has disclosed it in their annual report. But then, at 14 times its reported EPS for year ended december 2007, it is a no brainer. When I look at it, I feel its better to have this rather than a SAIL or a TISCO. SAIL and TISCO will move and down with steel prices whereas Foseco will behave normally without such aberrations. TISCOs and SAILs need Foundry chemicals for their foundries and hence demand for Foseco is not likely to dampen until and unless 2001 happens again. And in that case, forget Foseco, most of the blue chips we are talking about will fall on their faces. the same thing goes for a vesuvius india.  
 
The reason why I post my views on them here is to know what is drastically wrong with them that people dont want to get them. I reiterate that I have no intention to indulge in making a persuasive case for them. People are free to question and express their concerns. Any negative feedback is more welcome than a positive one.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 10:17am
  Go through Foseco's Annual Report and read their policy on disclosure norms. They clearly state that they will not say anything to the analyst community what they have not told to the exchanges. tell me, why shall an analyst bother to go to a company if he is not provided information thats not available with general investors. their concern for price-sensitive information is so tremendous that they have thoroughly inked their policy regarding it and has disclosed it in their annual report
 
Very interesting point. But there was a company called Trent that used to have the same policy and the stock did nothing for the last 3 years.
 
So at the end of the day it is EPS growth that matters all these points are incidental around it. Surely with such high standards these companies investors will never be suckers in such companies.
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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