MNC Stocks - Safety vs. Growth.
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Sector talk
Forum Discription: Discussion on sectors with regard to specific matters. We will be discussing the various sectors of the economy and how they would perform. Basically a top down approach.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1736
Printed Date: 19/Apr/2025 at 4:26pm
Topic: MNC Stocks - Safety vs. Growth.
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Subject: MNC Stocks - Safety vs. Growth.
Date Posted: 11/Apr/2008 at 10:23pm
Yes, thats what matters.
By the way Nitin bhai, have you looked at Glaxo Pharma. Its cash and investment balance is simply mindblowing.
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Replies:
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 5:51pm
Yes Vivek and so they had given a good dividend also while there is no doubt on the BS value of the company ...I had seen GSK before deciding on Wyeth and Novartis as it was difficult to choose between the entire pack had to use some numbers and some inputs from their international operations....however one area of concern for this MNC pharma group is the setting up on 100% subsidaries ..if thats trend picks up we could see some impact of revenues ...case in example is Pfizer. ------------- Warm REgards Nitin Jagtap |
Posted By: kannanravi1
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 9:37pm
Vivek,
Glaxos investment balance is truely mindblowing, but their net current assets is negative. This is not bad at all...infact I love companies that can run their business on negative net current assets. They are virtually running their day-to-day business of others cash!! An extreme case of this is Moody's corp in which Buffet is the biggest shareholder. They have been maintaining a negative equity for a long long time and yet they generate amazing cash flows. On a -780 million equity they generated 710 million free cash flow!! They are virtually running their whole business on other's cash!! But they can afford to, since they have such a bullet proof moat. Glaxo also is a great business, as they are able to generate increasing amounts of earnings on virtuatually very little reinvestment in gross block!! This is truely amazing. ------------- kannan |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 8:10am
When it comes to MNC pharma, my first choice will always happen to be Abbott india Limited. I used to like Merck, but thankfully didnt invest a decent amount in that company. Merck happens to be one of the lowest price to book stocks in MNC pharma space.
Now Wyeth is a tricky choice. however, I know of some good old aged relatives of mine who are outright fans of Wyeth. Wyeth pays a great dividend. However if I remember correctly, when I was forwarded the Annual report of Wyeth last year for comments, I had written 'disturbing P/L'. Its the P/L which makes me tilt for abbott rather than Mercks, Wyeths, Glaxos.
Nitin bhai, will you be able to explain Wyeth's case over Novartis?
Thanks and Regards,
Vivek
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 8:25am
These companies thrive like this only. Perhaps the best way to increase RoE is get finance at zero cost from suppliers, sell your wares for cash to your customers and if possible get all sort of safety deposits from your CFAs, stockists and squeeze them hard for cash. In short, milk your brand to the maximum. Devote a decent percentage to keep the brand hit and fit, pay a very decent percentage back to the owners and repeat this process over and over again. Absolute ruthless and no brain style of working.........
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 8:50am
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Vivek bhai There is no denying the fact that MNCs do leverage their brand equity & are virtual cash cows. Most of them enjoy what is called as oligopolies. There are smart investors who bought these companies (which were mainly forced to list) at virtually throw away prices during 70s/80s to make huge multibaggers. Under current environment, how do you look at following concerns:
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 9:48am
Thats why you have to cherry-pick among those as well.
Thats why I am not going for timken india, avery india, bata india( although liked that it has at last declared a dividend).rayban sun optics etc. thats why I have curtailed my plans for Procter and Gamble though at one point of time I wanted to convert all my levers and ITCs into procter.
The difference between your thought process and my thought process is quite simple. You think at CMP, most of the strengths are in-built, whereas I believe at CMPs most of the fears are in-built.
Also, these concerns which you have enumerated, dont grip all and sundry MNCs. The reason why prices wont move fast, and scope of capital gains may appear to be limited, is that these managements dont want them to. Go through Foseco's Annual Report and read their policy on disclosure norms. They clearly state that they will not say anything to the analyst community what they have not told to the exchanges. tell me, why shall an analyst bother to go to a company if he is not provided information thats not available with general investors. their concern for price-sensitive information is so tremendous that they have thoroughly inked their policy regarding it and has disclosed it in their annual report. But then, at 14 times its reported EPS for year ended december 2007, it is a no brainer. When I look at it, I feel its better to have this rather than a SAIL or a TISCO. SAIL and TISCO will move and down with steel prices whereas Foseco will behave normally without such aberrations. TISCOs and SAILs need Foundry chemicals for their foundries and hence demand for Foseco is not likely to dampen until and unless 2001 happens again. And in that case, forget Foseco, most of the blue chips we are talking about will fall on their faces. the same thing goes for a vesuvius india.
The reason why I post my views on them here is to know what is drastically wrong with them that people dont want to get them. I reiterate that I have no intention to indulge in making a persuasive case for them. People are free to question and express their concerns. Any negative feedback is more welcome than a positive one.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 10:17am
Very interesting point. But there was a company called Trent that used to have the same policy and the stock did nothing for the last 3 years.
So at the end of the day it is EPS growth that matters all these points are incidental around it. Surely with such high standards these companies investors will never be suckers in such companies.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 11:08am
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Nowadays, I love MNCs not the firangis but the the India--based ones because of delisting possibilities though there may be exceptions. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: bassein
Date Posted: 24/Aug/2008 at 8:42pm
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Since Novartis has been mentioned in this thread, here's a slightly old cut-and-paste: Reliance MF doubts Novartis' inter-group deals 14 Aug, 2008, 0600 hrs IST,Deeptha Rajkumar, ET Bureau MUMBAI: In an unusual case of shareholder activism by a fund house, the country’s largest mutual fund (MF), Reliance MF, which holds close to 5% equity in Novartis India, has raised certain corporate governance issues, especially those relating to inter-group transactions by the pharma company. Novartis India has inter-corporate deposits outstanding from its group companies to the tune of Rs 340 crore — as of March 2008 — which constitutes almost 76% of the company’s net worth. Under related party disclosures during the year, close to Rs 2,457 crore worth of loan transactions have been carried out with group firms. According to sources familiar with the development, the asset management company has raised queries as to why group companies are being supported with cheap capital by Novartis. It sought clarity from the company management on the rates at which such loans have been advanced. A related issue flagged off is that if the pharma firm is not in need of surplus cash to grow its core business, then the company would be better-off by ensuring a payout in the form of higher dividends to shareholders. The other concern expressed by Reliance MF is that if a large part of the company’s net worth is deployed in financing activities, there could be the risk of the firm being liable to be registered as a non-banking finance company (NBFC) with the Reserve Bank of India. It is learnt that the mutual fund even raised some of these issues at the company’s last AGM. Shareholders with more than 1% stake in Novartis India are LIC (5.67%), Azim Premji (2.53%), Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance (2.72%) and GIC (1.61%), among others. The company is understood to have questioned whether shareholders’ approval was taken to give such huge loans. It also sought information about the securities pledged by the borrowers. When contacted, a Novartis spokesperson said the company has already met representatives of Reliance Mutual Fund and clarified all the issues. “Full disclosures have been made in our annual report of 2007-08 with regard to the inter-corporate deposits referred to by you and these have also been duly audited. Surplus funds of Novartis India are deployed on an arm’s length basis to 100% subsidiaries of the Novartis Group at market-related rate of interest and in full compliance with the applicable provisions of the Companies Act, 1956. These funds are available to Novartis India on call in case of business need or opportunity,” a Novartis company spokesperson told ET. Reliance Mutual Fund officials were unavailable for comment. Regarding the issue of rental income received from group companies falling significantly, Novartis clarified that this could be attributed to the fact that group companies have moved out of Novartis India premises to larger ones elsewhere and the vacant premises have been rented out to a third party. Novartis India scrip ended 2.75% lower at Rs 302.50 on BSE on Wednesday. |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 24/Aug/2008 at 10:34pm
Wonder if they will pose the same questions to Reliance & ADAG group companies where such transactions run into tens of thousand crore rupees.
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Posted By: bassein
Date Posted: 25/Aug/2008 at 3:41pm
Not to forget the multiple offices registered at the same address.  |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 10:47am
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Some of the MNCs are now poised to leapfrog into growth category. My names in that list will be:
1.Vesuvius India
2.Foseco india
3.Glaxo SmithKline Consumer
4.3M India
5.Bayer Cropsciences
6.Bata India
7.Hitachi Home
8.DIC India
9.BASF India
10.Siemens Medical ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:48am
| Hi Vivek, Could you please elaborate on your thoughts around Bata's growth? Their top line has remained flattish over the last 5 years. Is there any strategic move (like Reliance deal) which will help perk up their numbers? |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 12:12pm
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Read this: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2009/04/19/stories/2009041950421100.htm - http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2009/04/19/stories/2009041950421100.htm
Apart from this, Bata is a very solid brand at least in Eastern india and especially in calcutta. This company is a leader in branded footwear segment and is tapping newer and less capital intensive avenues. Its more like a titan, available at a better valuation, and in a sector which is less discretionary in nature compared to watches. ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 12:43pm
| Thanks for sharing your thoughts. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 8:22pm
I didn't know this thread existed until today!  I think I had posted this link elsewhere. It's a Jan 2009 review of some MNC companies by HDFC Securities. http://hdfcsec.com/Research/List.aspx?Heading=StockIdeas&ReportID=F57B3500-D1DF-4239-A0E0-D5EE5CC493E9&Page=6 - Link ------------- |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 10:43am
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Wonderful list, Circuit Sir.
Hitesh bhai, ab to aap bahut post marenge yahan par. Looking forward to all of them..... ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 11:24am
subu76 wrote:
I saw Kernex in Circuit's list as an MNC. Perhaps, it is so "technically". The promoters sound Indian  ...------------- |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 11:28am
| Yup..it's an Indian company......close to Konkan Railways. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2009 at 9:09pm
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Here is an update on http://hdfcsec.com/CMT/Upload/ArticleAttachments/MNC%20stocks%20-%20defensive%20value%20buys%20a%20review%200409.pdf - MNC companies from HDFC Securities.
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2009 at 11:52am
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None of the glaxo twins in the list........?????? Thats a surprise!!!!!! ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2009 at 1:08pm
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MNCs, royalty, and dividend: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-trends/Global-cos-seen-taking-minority-shareholders-for-a-royalty-ride/articleshow/5349682.cms - Link ------------- |
Posted By: amol.karale
Date Posted: 27/Feb/2010 at 8:48pm
Hi Vivek, I have invested some money in Sulzer India which is MNC. I heard that it's not good decision to invest in MNC. Is it because of delising? If yes, how this affect a shareholder? Please advise. ------------- Amol |
Posted By: manish_okhade
Date Posted: 27/Feb/2010 at 10:34am
Hitesh,
I find BASF at interesting entry position only issue is i don't have their latest AR. Do you have research report or AR?
Thnx
Manish
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Date Posted: 22/Jan/2016 at 7:47am
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