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 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Stock Synopsis
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vinvestor2010
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Joined: 19/Mar/2010
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Quote vinvestor2010 Replybullet Posted: 03/Apr/2011 at 6:16pm
Originally posted by barla

 
You should look at this positively.
 
Probably the first on TED where an individual is expressing such strong regret.
 
Hopefully you will learn a lesson and caution other i investors from falling into a smilar trap.
 
Originally posted by vinvestor2010

Wow what a flop prediction from me. I hope nobody bought the stock after reading this thread. Cry

Thanks for the encouragement but it is a goof up none the less.
Following are the facts from my observations
In last 3 quarters company has had losses of -22.69 cr,-9.26 cr,-9.93 cr, -15 cr (approximate by me). This would total to a loss of about Rs -57 cr for FY 2010-11.
The good news is that last year they had 2 quarters of profits EACH of nearly 50 cr.
So even with this horror year they can survive.
Last year closing they had a cash balance of Rs 255 cr and 0 debt.
If we assume that all losses are cash and some more cash is spent maybe in capex,dividend etc then the cash loss of 57 cr can say be upped to 100 cr.
So it would still have AT LEAST about Rs 150 cr in cash or investments.
The market cap is Rs 322 cr now. So about 45% or Rs 47-48 per share is in cash IMHO.
Logically sir then even if company just does break even it should go to share price of Rs 150+.
However after 1 goofup I will not make any prediction Cry
Markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent - Keynes    
IMHO this is an extended case of mispricing but Mr Market is the boss ultimately so now time to pray to Balaji :-)
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