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Topic: Vivek's portfolio

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sunny_agarwal
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Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 3:14pm

HI VIVEK,

LET ME INTRODUCE U TO MYSELF AS AN INVESTOR AND A TRADER AND I HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING MARKETS EACH AND EVERY DAY FOR THE PAST THREE YEARS BY SITTING ON MY TRADIND DESK.

THOUGH I AM A NEW MEMBER OF THIS EMERGING FORUM , I HAVE BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE POSTS BY ALL THE MEMBERS AND ALL THE DISCUSSIONS.

I WOULD LIKE TO START BY COMPLEMENTING U ON THE KIND OF STOCKS U HAVE ADDED IN UR PORTFOLIO OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. THE STOCKS IN UR PORTFOLIO DEPICT A CLEAR MIX OF VERY HIGH GROWTH COMPANIES WHICH HAVE ALREADY GROWN TO AN EXTENT AND COMPANIES WHICH ARE YET TO UNLEASH THEIR POTENTIAL

BUT THE COMPANIES IN UR PORTFOLIO HAVE BEEN ALREADY IDENTIFIED BY THE MARKETS AND ARE STOCKS WHICH HAVE ALREADY MADE INVESTORS RICH OVER THESE YEARS. THESE COMPANIES NO DOUBT ARE VERY WELL ESTABLISHED AND ARE VERY WELL PLACED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIELDS . THESE STOCKS ARE ALSO TRADING AT VERY HIGH MULTIPLES AND VALUATIONS FOR SURELY DEMAND A RE-LOOK. I FEEL A FEW STOCKS IN UR PORTFOLIO MIGHT GO FOR PE DE-RATING RATHER THAN PE RE-RATING.

THOUGH STOCKS LIKE ADITYA BIRLA NUVO, ZICOM SECURITY, YES BANK LOOK VERY GOOD AND WOULD BE THE ONES TO BET ON. FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES I FEEL IS A VERY HYPED COMPANY. UR PORTFOLIO COSISTS OF STOCKS WHICH ARE VERY POPULAR WITH MOST RETAIL INVESTORS AND MUCH SIMILAR TO THE STOCKS MR. BASANT LIKES, ( HE HAS A REASON TO LIKE THEM, COZ THESE COMPANIES HAVE MADE ENOUGH FOR HIM).

AND I STRONGLY FEEL THAT THE STOCKS WHICH ARE GENERALLY TALKED ABOUT IN THIS FORUM HAVE TO BE AGAIN SCANNED AND OTHER STOCKS AND SECTORS SHOULD BE GIVEN A SECOND LOOK RATHER THAN FOLLOWING THE STOCKS WHICH HAVE ALREADY REWARDED INVESTORS HEAVILY OVER PAST MANY YEARS. WE NEED TO MOVE ON GUYS!!!!!!!

LAST BUT NOT THE LEAST :

" BETWEEN YESTERDAYS REGRET AND TOMORROWS HOPE LIES TODAYS OPPORTUNITY "

Be the change you wish to see in this world!!!

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omshivaya
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Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 5:31pm

Sunny ji, thank you so much for your intelligent words. I believe decision should be based on:

Growth outlook for future, not on what has been made in the past. Just bcoz something has gone up doesn't mean there is nothing in it, in the same way that something which has not gone up much despite the bull run in last few years ARE SURE SHOT BETS. Each is a case by case analysis.

So since you mentioned pe-derating, kindly also provide the examples you are talking of.

Yes Bank holds opportunity as per you, at a current PE of above 50(TTM) and you assume a further pe-rating in it, is it? How much PE do you think it should get? Just curious! Btw, I have learn to look at P/BV in case of banks, from TED.

Now, since you didn't mention Pantaloon, TV18, Network18, Nucleus I assume(as per what you said) that they should undergo PE-derating as they must be stretched in valuations.

So, would you be kind enuff to provide the facts too(since I too want to learn):

1) Current PE(Trailing Twelve Months) for Pantaloon, TV18, Ntwk18 and Nucleus.

2) Current growth rate in EPS for the above four, for past 2 years(if any).

3) Expected growth rate in EPS for the above four, for next 3 years, as per you or as per the market(average consensus).

And lastly,

4) PEG ratio for the above four, after you have done points (2) & (3).

I think all of us would get a good idea of the valuations in this case, since you mentioned derating.

Thank you again for your observations Sunny ji. And lastly, TEDdies don't invest into something just bcoz someone else has also invested. If that were the case, then there would be just one page of Pantaloon/TV18 etc. with a research report of its growth possibilities and a photo of Basant ji with it, and we would all invest into it just based on that.

Yes, one needs to always be on the lookout for newer growth avenues and that is what TEDdies are all about. In case you find more such compelling ideas as discussed on TED with proper facts and research done on it, please do post a topic on that company and I would be the first one to read it up, I promise.

Please do not take this any other way Sunny ji. I am just trying to learn from everyone, including you.

Om Namah Shivaya!!!

Edited by omshivaya - 10/Mar/2007 at 5:37pm

The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it

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nikhil090
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Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 6:39pm

Hi sunny,

I will try to summarize the qualities of the stocks that are favourites at TED. If you find something which meets this quality, pls tell us.

1. Strong management team - Normally 1st generation entrepreneurs with strong background

2. Strong growth visibility with huge scale of opportunity

3. Pricing Power with strong franchises which cannot be easily replicated

4. High operating leverage

5. Non Cyclical and Mostly unaffected by economy, govt, interest rates etc etc

6. Business Leaders in their segment

As far as discovering by market is considered, i think most of the market feels that the stocks discussed here are very expensive. However FII's favour the stocks that we discuss while domestic MF's are not normally tuned in.

Infact financial technologies is not covered by any indian MF of repute as of now and no body holds it.. But FII's hold the full quota.

So I think your observations are a little too general. Maybe if you can cite some specific reasons it may help to understand your view point.

Thanks !!!

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basant
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Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 6:53pm

MR. BASANT LIKES, ( HE HAS A REASON TO LIKE THEM, COZ THESE COMPANIES HAVE MADE ENOUGH FOR HIM).

_______________________________________________________

Hi Sunny ji, Great to have you with us. WHile you are correct about current valuations of most of these stocks what we generally like to see is Growth at reasonable value. We always look for new ideas here but since the (unintentional and unintended) focus has been to stay away from commodities and cyclicals and remain with the leaders the scope of companies have been restricted to a very large extent.

YOu make an interesting observation that it is very easy to fall in love with a stock and that is something which I keep introspecting but surely we develop soft corners for companies not because we make money in them but because become accustomed to understanding the business and management so well that any new idea looks dilutive at first look.

But I have managed to get out of this spider web if you could call it. Companies like Trent and Educomp were six baggers and four baggers for me but I still exited them because the comfort factor was missing.

Not that the other pieces of my portfolio look extremely comforting but then the sheer scope of growth seems tremendous and that is what makes us stick to our companies.

What stocks are you currently focused on. WOuld be interesting to hear about them.

Edited by basant - 10/Mar/2007 at 10:46am

'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

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omshivaya
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Posted: 10/Mar/2007 at 7:27pm

That's the difference speaking. I also wanted to say the same thing as softly as Basant ji did...but Basant jee's words seem oh so soft yet affirmative. That's what is called temperament and experience.

Another lesson learnt for me. Will work on it even more...Thanks TED!

Edited by omshivaya - 10/Mar/2007 at 7:31pm

The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it

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s_praharaj
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Joined: 10/Sep/2006
Location: India
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Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 5:35pm

Sunny,

Welcome to TED.

It seems we have a lot to hear and learn from you.

We in TED are constantly look out for constructive criticism. This gives us scope for introspection and devolop ourselves and form new ideas.

Please tell us WHY you think that some of the stocks discussed in this forum has no great future.

I totally agree with you that all these stocks have gone up a lot. and the returns from this stage may not be as spectacular as before.

Also tell us, what are the stocks in your mind and what are your analysis and logic while selecting these stocks.

I very much like your following quote, which all TEDDIES constantly look out for.

" BETWEEN YESTERDAYS REGRET AND TOMORROWS HOPE LIES TODAYS OPPORTUNITY "

I will be waiting for youe reply.

Shashi Praharaj

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us121
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Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 7:57pm

Originally posted by omshivaya

That's the difference speaking. I also wanted to say the same thing as softly as Basant ji did...but Basant jee's words seem oh so soft yet affirmative. That's what is called temperament and experience.

Another lesson learnt for me. Will work on it even more...Thanks TED!

GREAT BASANTJI...

Like OMSHIVAYA I also appreciate the way you coolly answer the person who has different point of view.

TED is not only investment learning center but it is also management learning center.

But the fact is only these people who criticise the ongoing pattern will help keep TED alive and alert.

ABILITY will get u at d top. CHARACTER will retain u at d top

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omshivaya
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Joined: 06/Sep/2006
Location: India
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Posted: 11/Mar/2007 at 8:23pm

Absolutely, this is exactly what I sai dlong time back too. Democracy and good corp. governance, loads of arguements and healthy fights is and shall always be TED's cornerstone. Rest everythinG shall take of itself automatically.

The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it

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