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 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental
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valueman
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Quote valueman Replybullet Posted: 02/Nov/2008 at 11:02am
Originally posted by tarkeshwar

This is an interesting and rather important thread.

I have a qus. How is the experience of being 100% invested in the market been? Are folks able to maneuver successfully from defensive stocks (like HDFC) to aggressive companies, so as to exploit unmistakable "buy when others are fearful" opportunity now?
If one's recurring income is much less than his stock portfolio value, isn't it hard to benefit much from opportunity like this?
My learning now is that it makes more sense to accumulate cash during bull runs, "only" to invest when bad sentiments prevail for a stock. "only" is the operative word and probably the most important difference between legendary investors like Buffett and us mortal souls
   


The first time I invested in Equities it was in 2003 and I had a major portfolio of mine in the same and at that time I was a little bit nervous as that was my first time and many of my friends and relatives who had burnt their fingers in the dot com crash were horrified to see a "novice" like me investing a major portion of our cash in Equities and I was lucky that I  invested in the right time and inspite of the current carnage my portfolio is quite positive and the dividend yield is itself is more than what Bank gives me as interest and hence I have a downside protection .

Now is the second phase of my investment and this is my first bear phase and the experience is new for me .I am staying in 50% cash and 50% invested ( started investing at 12,000 levels ) .The current investments that I have made are for a min period of 5 years and treat it as a FD for 5 years .In the meanwhile I did make an investment in 2 Closed Ended Mutual Funds in Jan 2008 .They have a lock in period of 3 years .

Since I have zero debts , have source for regular income , having 50% cash and also with my "overall portfolio" quite positive I am not having much fear though I dread to think what would happen if the sensex goes to 7000 levels .

I evaluate my Investment performance  not based on what is the index level but how much better I have made compared to the same amount invested in a bank FD ( after deducting tax ) for a similar period .
And If I get the same result or less than the Bank returns then I am a looser and unfit to manage my finance .
If I get 5% more  results than bank FD then I am an OK Investor .(i.e 15% and above )
If I get 10% more  results than Bank  FD then I am a Good Investor .(i.e 20% and above )
If I get 15% more  results then Bank FD  then I am a Very Good Investor .( i.e 25% and above )
If I get 20% more  results then Bank FD  then I am an Excellent Investor  .( i.e 30% and above )
Based on my performance in the last 5 years I can say that currently even after this Carnage I an right now a Good Investor .I was an Excellent Investor in Jan 2008 Wink
I will have to see how I am by 2013 i.e I have a 5 year time frame for my evaluation .



Edited by valueman - 02/Nov/2008 at 11:16am

To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks .
Benjamin Graham.
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 16/Jan/2009 at 2:45pm
Originally posted by investor

Yes, some points from that book and other cases in Lynch's book where
he mentioned about losing profits(the same point which Basant has also
mentioned). But i would be lying if i said that my decision was based on those readings.  Mainly it was just a simple case of protecting profits, thats all.

Like Basantji, i am a firm believer in concentrated portfolio, and had just 5 stocks, with 50% in UB holdings and 20% in Mcdowell(now United Spirits). And its obvious all these were RD's picks 3 years ago, and so when he started exiting in Jan, i held on. But 3 months and 50% loss of profits later, i was getting nervous about losing out on all the hard work of last 3.5 years(well hard work may be a misnomer in the investing world, but sitting patiently on growing profits, not knowing when to exit is very difficult, as you also must be aware) so decided to get out.
And again like Basantji, i dont believe in the concept of partial profit booking, so exited completely.

My biggest learnings for me from this was this:
1. An example which Basant wrote many eons ago on TED:
    For a five bagger from Rs. 100, you need a 400% increase, but from  500, just a 80% fall will bring it back to 100!!

   I learnt this lesson the hard way! .Cry

2. There is no point getting excited or happy about seeing the rise in
    the "unrealized gains" in the portfolio tracker. Only when you actually
    sell, it is REAL!

3. There is only one thing tougher than sitting on profits, and that is
    sitting on cash! 

Originally posted by kulman


Very well said.

Mr. Investor, kudos to you for taking this decision. Not many people have been successful in sitting on cash. What made you take this step? Somewhere else you had mentioned that a book Wisdom of crowd helped you in deciding. Any other observations?




Thanks  for the candid reply, Mr. Investor




Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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brijwanth
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Quote brijwanth Replybullet Posted: 14/Jul/2010 at 7:48am
That post by me on 27th october 2009 seems to have given an good effect at that time

It was a letter from Geojit Head.

Now after a gap of 2 years I'm posting back though the market has not climbed it's peak of 21,000. I'm feeling the same as this thread i.e. Holding cash in Bull Market. This is no Bull market and the analysts seem fearful after 2008 beating. so they are " cautiously positive " to avoid risking their careers Wacko.
Past will not be repeated in future but peaks and troughs do revert to mean, period and order of those peaks, troughs and mean days is the one i.e. not predictable- riser3 valuations
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