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vsb2pwn
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Quote vsb2pwn Replybullet Topic: The Future Of Telecom Sector
    Posted: 22/Nov/2009 at 9:53pm
In recent days the price war among different telecom operators, Nation wide launch of operations by newcomers like Tata Docomo and GSM operations of Reliance Communications and the slide of telecom stocks in the market have raised quite a few questions on future of telecom sector.
 
Till recently we were basically more or less talking of two or three particular companies. But now suddenly we find pessimism all over, about telecom sector. But still there are others who see Broadband, 3G , VAS ( Value Added Services), as potential earners for telecom sector.
 
By 31st Dec 2009 , Metros and by 20th March 2010 we will be having Mobile Number Portability (MNP) . As per initial TRAI report subscribers will be able to change the service provider for apltry sum of Rs 19/- only. This is going to make this sector even more exciting to be discussed upon.
 
Hence I thought to initiate this thread where we discuss telecom as sector and not as stock synopsis of a particular company, though you are welcome to and can discuss each and every company in respect to telecom on this thread
 
Hope you all post your valuable posts.
 
With Warm Regards!
vsb2pwn
 


Edited by vsb2pwn - 22/Nov/2009 at 10:02pm
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Quote vsb2pwn Replybullet Posted: 22/Nov/2009 at 10:38pm
TRAI published a paper in December 2008 entitled:
Measures to Improve Telecom Penetration in Rural India
– The next 100 million subscribers
 
In this paper, they gave following telephone density figures :

Urban-Rural Teledensity

Month 

Total Teledensity

Urban Teledensity

Rural Teledensity

Mar-1998

1.9

5.8

0.4

Mar-1999

2.3

6.9

0.5

Mar-2000

2.9

8.2

0.7

Mar-2001

3.6

10.4

0.9

Mar-2002

4.3

12.2

1.2

Mar-2003

5.1

14.3

1.5

Mar-2004

7.04

21.3

1.7

Mar-2005

9.08

26.2

1.74

Mar-2006

12.86

37.99

1.86

Mar-2007

18.23

47.24

5.78

Mar-2008

26.22

63.67

9.34

Sep-2008

30.64

72.47

12.72

 
And concluded that ;
 
There are about 315.31 million wireless subscribers as on
September 2008 of which, about 90.76 million subscribers are
from rural India. To achieve the target of 500 million by 2010, it is
imperative that 90-100 million new subscribers are from rural
areas.
 
To Read this Study Paper In Full
 
Click Here
 
The onus of this study paper in December 2008 was that around 72.5% of Urban population is already covered but rural penetration has tremendeous scope as it has been covered just 12.72%


Edited by vsb2pwn - 22/Nov/2009 at 10:45pm
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Quote vsb2pwn Replybullet Posted: 22/Nov/2009 at 11:11pm
In response to looking for next 100 million subscribers in rural india they invited comments from various parties But I list here few of our interest
1. Bharti Telecom (Airtel)
 
 
2. Nokia Siemens Network
 
 
3. RCOM
 
 
4. Tata
 
 
5. Qualcomm
 
 
These responses were published on Jan 15 2009
 
Reading them gives one quite an insight into future of telecom.
 
If we are already having urban teledensity of around 72% in September 2008 and which should definitely be more as on date. Then In urban areas all we can expect is price wars and subscriber hip-hop from one platform to another.
 
But alongside as most companies and TRAI, realizes is a vast rural market lying to be tapped.
 
So What is the Future of Telecom Sector?
 
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Quote vsb2pwn Replybullet Posted: 22/Nov/2009 at 11:38pm

For those who do not like going to links, I list key points

Tata Teleservices - We strongly feel that the Goverment's target of achieving 500 million subscribers by 2010 can be achieved only if we are able to tap the rural/uncovered population by providing the affordable telecom services.

Bharti Airtel -The Indian telecom operators are already burdened with high taxation & levies to the extent of 30%. TRAI also recognize the importance of lower levies for the growth of telecom services in rural area and thus, TRAI made its observations in the above recommendations by stating that “…….Despite very heavy taxation vis-ΰ-vis other neighboring countries, ….. our tariffs are the least in the world, a tribute to the competition in the sector and our operators. Reducing levies is essential to drop cost to customer and hence increase in penetration in new markets particularly rural areas ……………."

Nokia Siemens Network -The way we foresee growth in this part of the market, voice and data need to be taken together and technologically we can differentiate as a low cost voice and an affordable BB penetration.

Reliance Communications-The government have recently waived off the license fee on rural wire line phones. We suggest that any policy framework giving relief to fixed wire line phones should also include the wireless phones and the wireless PCOs so that the required goals for increasing the accessibility could be achieved. Since the government has already waived off the license fee on rural wire line connections, we suggest that the waiver of license fee should be extended to fixed wireless phones and PCOs installed in the rural areas as well. This will provide a boost to the operators for their rural operations.
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Quote vsb2pwn Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2009 at 10:19pm
I am confused on 3G spectrum to be launched soon in the country. Cause as per my basic knowledge 3G standard as per International Telecommunication Union are already incorporated in most CDMA phones.Unhappy
 
In my quest for answers, (and surprisngly), found this on wikipedia.
 
SOURCE WIKIPEDIA
The first pre-commercial 3G network was launched by NTT DoCoMo in Japan branded FOMA, in May 2001 on a pre-release of W-CDMA technology. The first commercial launch of 3G was also by NTT DoCoMo in Japan on October 1, 2001, although it was initially somewhat limited in scope, broader availability was delayed by apparent concerns over reliability.
In 1999 Japanese mobile operator NTT DoCoMo introduced its mobile internet service, i-Mode, which today is the world's largest mobile internet service and roughly the same size as Google in annual revenues.
 
Intresting, for me cause I always thought Tata Indicom & Reliance Communications are already using word '3G' for their technology CDMA. Becomes even more intresting since NTT DoCoMo is now Tata DoCoMo.
 
And here we see all the hype in GSM technology. To quote same source again.

SOURCE WIKIPEDIA
GSM (the current most popular cellular phone standard) could deliver not only voice, but also circuit-switched data at download rates up to 14.4 kbps. But to support mobile multimedia applications, 3G had to deliver packet-switched data with better spectral efficiency, at far greater bandwidths.
 
This means to me is that the auction coming for 3G spectrum is for greater bandwiths required by GSM operators. And as I have already written in one of my post in Airtel vs Rcom thread that TRAI was biased towards GSM technology and Rcom and Tata Indicom had to switch to GSM from initial CDMA technology in order to compete with GSM players.
 
Only Time Will Tell what technolgies are there in store for us and how this Telecom Co's Price war goes on.................... But am confused as what Tata DoCoMo is upto???????Wacko
 
for full reading on source quoted one can click here
 
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Quote vsb2pwn Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2009 at 7:49am

CDMA players slam DOT committee report on spectrum allocation

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/cdma-players-slam-dot-committee-report-on-spectrum-allocation/545688/
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Quote Hitesh Shah Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2009 at 10:26am
Another example of market favouring a less efficient technology (GSM) over a more efficient one (CDMA). At least that is what I understand, not being a telecom geek Geek 
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Quote vsb2pwn Replybullet Posted: 25/Nov/2009 at 11:04am
Originally posted by Hitesh Shah

Another example of market favouring a less efficient technology (GSM) over a more efficient one (CDMA). At least that is what I understand, not being a telecom geek Geek 
 
Hitesh Ji,
 
Its more then meets the eye, its not market, but regulator (TRAI) favouring a less efficient technology (GSM) over a more efficient one (CDMA).
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