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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 20/Oct/2009 at 12:54pm
Originally posted by smartcat

So I guess its safe to assume I own 100 stocks.


For x = Pi     the number of scrips comes to approx 116

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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 20/Oct/2009 at 1:14pm
The final number is 97. The ones I missed adding into valueresearch are -
 
Indian Overseas Bank
Karnataka Bank
Page Industries
Moldtek Plastics
Sonata Software
 
keep an eye on sonata software - it is new wine in an old bottle.
 
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deepinsight
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Quote deepinsight Replybullet Posted: 20/Oct/2009 at 1:17pm

I have some follow up question and comments:

 

Smartcat, First of all, the comments are not a critique on your endeavor but just to learn from this fascinating experiment. As an investor, we are all evolving & have to learn from mistakes and success (of others and our own) – so the discussion is in that spirit – to learn from what’s working and why.

 

My questions relate to:

Compromise in terms of absolute returns

Size of portfolio- why not get the same with less?

Compromise going into depth on each company because of size of the portfolio.

And

Capturing the absolute winners.   

 

 

Q. Are you going to compromise on absolute returns (think your goal was 25%+) for the benefit of dividends and broad diversification?

 

Comment: More the number of stocks - more you are playing a certain characteristic of the underlying portfolio e.g. value oriented (low p/e) with dividend yield of x% with ROE of Z% - so as a group of companies you have the characteristics playing out over time.

 

So from what you have answered the small percentage in each company seems to suggest a play on:

- Diversification (to manage company specific –ve events)

- Detachment (ability to sell)

- Active trading (when the company moves up so much -sell this much or in its entirety)

- Dividend yield (collect while waiting for capital appreciation)

 

Most fund managers suggest 15-20 companies as optimal – benefit of diversification, potential to dig deeper & follow the company, – though Peter Lynch if I remember from his book even had 1500 companies in his mutual fund. Anthony Bolton (another star Fidelity Fund manager in his book(Investing against the tide) also talks about having loads of companies in his fund).

 

Having said that, even Peter Lynch and Anthony Bolton suggest a smaller number of holdings for individual investors.

 

Q. Why so many companies – why not 30 or 50 or on the other extreme 150?

 

Also, don’t forget these guys were working with lots more money to deploy, so it was necessary to throw a larger net and had teams to support their endeavors.

 

Q. Now the question is can you get the same result (exposure/benefit/characteristics) with a smaller number of companies?

 

 So as a thought process: If you have 20 companies you need more conviction on each of your companies business model, management thinking, financials - but also have more insight and hopefully also the ability to capture the returns (compounding operational growth).

 

As you know each of the number has a story. ROE is improving because of low capital intensity. Margins are improving because of low input costs. To know, the sustainability of this story requires more depth of effort for each company.

 

Q. Are you willing to forgo this depth for a more generic capture of managing by numbers?

 

The other thought was:

As you know the phenomenal returns (multi fold returns) for individual investors can come from investing early in a well found outstanding company & then holding on with grit. Those companies are rare animals. (Where all the stars, moons & planets align J ) – For individual investors this can be life changing!

 

Q. With this method- will you able to find, buy, hold and optimally benefit if you find such a company? e.g. if you had Adani enterprises for last 10 years – you would be sitting on a unbelievable multiple of your invested capital.

"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 20/Oct/2009 at 5:01pm
Compromise in terms of absolute returns
 
I don't think I will be making a returns compromise over, say, a 5 year period. In the next 5 years, I expect atleast one big top, a crash and another high. More of those large moves on both sides, the merrier. I think this can be exploited if one manages the cash component and equity component well.
 
The power of FIIs in moving the midcaps/largecaps on both sides and behavior of retail investors (the RNRL gang) in micro-cap/small cap stocks is not going to change overnight.
 
Size of portfolio- why not get the same with less?
 
20 stocks or 100 stocks really don't matter, as long as the right stocks are selected at the right valuation. If you look at the 9 year graphs of my stocks on moneycontrol.com, most of them would have comfortably matched or beaten the index and other growth stocks like HDFC Bank, L&T or BHEL - even the low P/E PSU banks. microcaps and the regional banks.
 
Basically, because the growth in Indian companies is mostly driven by Indian GDP growth, more than 20 stocks are growing a a good pace. So why stick to 20 when you have the other benefits of diversification? 
 
If Indian GDP growth was 2%, I probably wouldn't have had a 97 stock portfolio - I would have been a lot more careful in picking stocks. I stopped at 97 stocks because I liked only these 97 stocks that met my criteria for investment.
 
Compromise going into depth on each company because of size of the portfolio
 
Going really deep inside hasn't helped me exceptionally so far. Just reading about the company from the website and the annual report (expansion plans, future outlook etc) gives a good enough idea about its performance for the next year. Plus, the past performance would also have been considered before picking the stock.
 
Eg: Anjani Portland Cement.
 
This company makes cement. How deep can one go? The important thing to note is that they are increasing capacity in FY10 by some percentage - got this bit of info from the annual report. The demand for cement will always be there in Andhra Pradesh because of irrigation projects [The Big Picture - the link to India GDP growth]. Most of the extra cement produced will be sold - even a 10 or 15% drop in cement prices won't matter mcuh. The capacity expansion will add to the topline and bottomline next year.
 
How can I be sure that they won't mess up? The past 4 or 5 year topline, bottomline growth and dividend payout performance.
 
Capturing the absolute winners. 
 
Rather than say that my Adani Enterprises was a 10 bagger for me, I would prefer saying "My investments increased its value 10 times in 5 years!"
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somu0915
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Quote somu0915 Replybullet Posted: 20/Oct/2009 at 5:15pm
Smartcat, your opinions are exactly the same as mine.
Glad to know I have met someone who believes in my thinking.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 20/Oct/2009 at 10:17pm
Smartcat has indeed become a "reformed" bull. By the way, your SRF was rocking today.......
Jai Guru!!!
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 20/Oct/2009 at 10:34pm
Can you indicate the growth in this portfolio in terms of return from March 09, 2009? You may ignore this question if you don't think like answering this one.


Originally posted by smartcat

Whoops. IOB is there in my moneycontrol and DP account but missed it while adding to valueresearchonline.
 
If I missed IOB, I might have missed others too. So I guess its safe to assume I own 100 stocks.
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Hitesh Shah
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Quote Hitesh Shah Replybullet Posted: 20/Oct/2009 at 10:50pm
Originally posted by smartcat

Visaka looks pretty decent - will take a close look at it (along with Banco) for my next round of investing.

What is the total number of stocks in your portfolio
 
55. Top 5 stocks contribute 42% to the portfolio weight though.


This was posted on August 29 23 Embarrassed, 2009. So asking for data from March 2009 will be meaningless, IMHO.

Link

See how much interest your thread has attracted. I have memorised large chunks of it .... LOL


Edited by Hitesh Shah - 20/Oct/2009 at 10:55pm
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