Smartcat - Portfolio Checkup
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Portfolio Check Up
Forum Discription: Members may put forward their portfolios dor comments from other members. The final call will obviously be taken by the investor himself.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=870
Printed Date: 21/Apr/2025 at 4:57am
Topic: Smartcat - Portfolio Checkup
Posted By: smartcat
Subject: Smartcat - Portfolio Checkup
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2007 at 12:54pm
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Hello Everybody,
I found this forum via Google when I was searching for RJ's portfolio. Can you take a look at my portfolio and make suggestions?
Bharti Airtel 14.77
Reliance Industries 11.08 Infosys 9.98 TCS 9.48 Reliance Comm 7.98 ICICI Bank 5.70 Aban Offshore 5.40 Larsen & Toubro 4.17 BHEL 4.01 UTI Bank 3.73 Thermax 3.59 Bharati Shipyard 2.62 Lakshmi Machine Works 2.52 Suzlon Energy 2.19 Pantaloon Retail 2.18 Tanla Solutions Ltd. 2.00 Marico 1.83 Maruti Udyog Ltd 1.64 Mahindra & Mahindra 1.36 Madhucon Projects 1.30 Praj Industries 1.24 JP Associates 1.23 A little bit of background info -
- My goal is to get a CAGR returns of 25 - 30%.
- I would like to increase my holdings in Praj and Pantaloon. But I'm not sure if this is the right time to do it. Comments?
- I was once bullish on Suzlon with 6% portfolio weightage but later sold a few shares after 2 consecutive poor quarters.
- Is somebody playing with Tanla solutions scrip? Why does it keep going up by 2% (or going down by 2%) everyday?
Thanks -
Ashwin
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Replies:
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2007 at 1:17pm
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Hello, Great to hear the way you found this site! If we do a sectoral weightage of your portfolio this is how it works out to:
Telecom: 7.98 + 14.77 = 22.75%
Chemicals + Oil = 11.08 + 5.40 = 15.48%
Technology= 9.98 + 9.48 = 19.46%
Retail Banking = 5.70 + 3.73 = 9.43%
Construction = 4.17 + 1.3 + 1.23 = 6.7% Capital goods and energy = 4.01 +3.59 +2.19 + 1.24 = 11.03% Ship Building = 2.62 Textile manufacturing = 2.52 Retail = 2.18 Mobile aggregators =2.00 FMCG = 1.83 Auto = 1.64 +1.36 = 3% You should be congratulated on having managed to create such an extraordinary portfolio. The salient features of which are: 1) Well balanced
2) Mostly has sector leaders
3) Less dependent upon commodity and cyclicals
But some positions need to be ramped up for instance as you said the retail exposure is meaningless if you want to be exposed to Pantaloon then it shoukd take up at least 5% of the portfolio otherwise it would not matter.
Similar with Praj and Marico.I think Tv broadcasting is an area which should grow exponentially from because of changing industry dynamics.So an exposure should be considered in this sector.
For the rebalancing some money could be moved out of Technology, Chemicals and Telecom - in that order.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2007 at 1:36pm
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Basant,
Where did you place Aban Loyd? I thought they were into ship building too (rigs, drilling ships etc). Or do they buy the rigs/ships elsewhere and just give it out on rent/lease?
I originally didn't have such a high telecom weightage. But Bharti and Rel Com pushed it up thanks to the recent rise in share prices. Now whenever Bharti sneezes, my entire portfolio catches a cold. But thankfully, Bharti doesn't sneeze so much
 If a stock you like powers up quickly and messes up your sector/stock weightage, would you sell it or hold it?
I am not that bullish on Reliance Industries actually (in the short term). The only reason I have it in the portfolio is because of sensex weightage of Reliance. I hate it when Sensex beats my portfolio and I hope to avoid that by keeping Reliance at 10%.
I have extra cash to deploy. I will put that in Pantaloon. What is the FY07E PE of Pantaloon? Can I expect 30 - 40% growth in EPS over the next 2 years?
I am scared to invest in TV stocks because of eye-popping PE ratios. So I have invested in Rs. 40,000 in Reliance Entertainment and Media Fund.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2007 at 1:50pm
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Can I expect 30 - 40% growth in EPS over the next 2 years?
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That seems achievable. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2007 at 2:22pm
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Hi Ashwin, Welcome to TED!
Your portfolio looks extremely good except some:
I would prefer HDFC Bank over UTI and sell Maruti, M&M,Madhucon and JP Associates (1.64+1.36+1.30+1.23=5.53) and deploy all the maoney in Pantaloon.After which Pantaloon will constitute 7.71% of your portfolio. Try and bring the number of stocks to 10 so that you can follow and manage it.
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2007 at 3:20pm
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Madhucon is a real dog. It is down 30%. I have no qualms selling it. I bought JP Associates during the cement stock run up. I own M&M because I heard they own 40% of Tech Mahindra. So if Tech Mahindra performs well, will it rub off to M&M too?
Warren Ji, I have lots of time on my hands to track so many stocks.
 You might find me hovering on this forum now - there is so much to read.Can somebody point me to rules of TED forum? Can I post links? I've noticed that forum newbies are not allowed to post in certain forums. When will that change?
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Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2007 at 3:46pm
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Smartcat...You should first of all introduce yourself http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=17&PN=14 - here , and then proceed to read the fourm rules http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=862 - here .
You can also post external articles on the forum, but make sure that you give the source for the article at the bottom. Everyone is allowed to post on everythread, however only the administration can start threads in certain http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_topics.asp?FID=30 - Sub-Forums .
Elsewhere you can start threads also. Last but not the least...You are Welcome!!!
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2007 at 9:26pm
Each M&M share owns 1/4.2 share of Tech Mahindra. But, M&M share holders are never going to get shares in Tech Mahidra. This is like a strategic investment for M&M. Tech Mahindra should help M&M by contributing to consolidated EPS. It helps quite a lot if all of us get our share of Tech Mahindra being M&M share holders. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 5:41pm
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 5:42pm
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This is how my portfolio looks after the restructuring. Is this better than before? Thoughts behind the restructuring -
- Reduction in the number of stocks from 22 to more manageable 12.
- Got rid of TCS and increased exposure to INFOSYS since both the companies will probably have similar growth rates in the future. No point in tracking 2 separate companies.
- Got rid of ICICI Bank because of equity dilution concerns/low future EPS growth rates and the pending demerger. I will take a call on demerged entities later. Increased exposure to UTI Bank since I believe this is going to be the 'next' HDFC Bank.
- Removed stocks from capital goods sector like L&T, Thermax, Praj & BHEL because most of the mutual funds I own already have these stocks in sizeable quantities.
- Removed Bharati Shipyard after I learnt that it depends on government subsidies for profitability.
- Removed M&M, Maruti, JP Associates and Madhucon based on devesh's recommendations.
- Added TV 18 and increased exposure to Pantaloon based on Basant's recommendations.
- Got rid of Marico and added Reliance Capital - a play on the insurance and consumer finance sector
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 7:33pm
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Added TV 18 and increased exposure to Pantaloon based on Basant's recommendations
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Mera disclaimer padh lo Bhai!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 7:45pm
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Basant Ji - If I make money out of TV18 and Pantaloon, I will make a life size statue of you and phool chadaaoonga. If these two stocks tank and I lose money, I will just blame my Naseeb - don't worry.
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 8:28pm
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Statue banana shuru kar lo bhaiyya! Maine to bana liya aur roz kasrat karta hoon uske samne...------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 9:49pm
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Removed M&M, Maruti, JP Associates and Madhucon based on devesh's recommendations
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Well..i think add more to Pantaloon or TV18 though the former looks more attractive in place of LMW...
Regarding "If I make money out of TV18 and Pantaloon"....why "IF" ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 12:52pm
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What's the TEDdy view on UTI Bank? Nothing interesting? I would like to know if there are any negative views as such.
The only thing I don't like about UTI Bank is the new name - Axis Bank (according to the latest company report). Yuck. Sounds like George Bush's 'Axis of Evil' Bank.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 7:25am
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Small discussion on UTI Bank:
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=247 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=247 ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 9:16am
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Regarding "If I make money out of TV18 and Pantaloon"....why "IF"
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I like this confidence in Devesh. He's displaying extra-ordinary maturity for his tender age. Just one suggestion, remain humble & do not become over-confident...(as strange things have happened in this market!)
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 16/May/2007 at 10:10am
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Just one suggestion, remain humble & do not become over-confident
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Will keep this in mind.. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 17/May/2007 at 9:55am
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Rel Cap is booming..crossed 900 thanks to ML target price of 1025 and allowing PSUs to invest in MFs... ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 17/May/2007 at 11:43am
Whenever I invest my dus rupaiah into any stock, it goes boom. TV18 went up by 14% after I put my money - its like magic 
Now ladies and gentlemen - do you want any other stock to go up?
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 17/May/2007 at 11:52am
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Smartcat,
Then there will be a big list of stocks from each one of us. Got out of NLC. Since yesterday GUJ NRE COKE is moving up. Some portions of it also sold out. Hope this bull market continues for a while which will help in consolidation. ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/May/2007 at 12:07pm
Try HFCL ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: psimajin
Date Posted: 18/May/2007 at 12:36pm
Dus rupaiah ke baad ketna Zero hai 
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 18/May/2007 at 3:22pm
I only put dus rupaiah. But I have a feeling the big bull RJ is tracking my moves closely 
Maine aapka kya bigaada hain? Kiss janam ka badlaa lena chahte hain aap?
Should I bother saying LADIES and gentlemen? Do we have any ladies on TED?
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Posted By: chic_1978
Date Posted: 18/May/2007 at 5:26pm
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Whenever I invest my dus rupaiah into any stock, it goes boom. TV18 went up by 14% after I put my money - its like magic
Now ladies and gentlemen - do you want any other stock to go up?
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I have a long list for ur magical power's madam.................pls refer to my portfolio................  ------------- happy & wise investing |
Posted By: chic_1978
Date Posted: 18/May/2007 at 5:28pm
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The only thing I don't like about UTI Bank is the new name - Axis Bank (according to the latest company report). Yuck. Sounds like George Bush's 'Axis of Evil' Bank.
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I THINK WE NEED TO RECRUIT A NUMEROLOGIST OR MAYBE CONSULT EKTA KAPOOR TO SUGGEST SOME BETTER NAMES................WOT SAY MADAM ?????  ------------- happy & wise investing |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 18/May/2007 at 5:30pm
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When I last checked, I was a dude. Not a Madam |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 21/May/2007 at 12:56pm
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Did one last change - removed Suzlon and Tanla - and added Entertainment Network of India (ENIL) to my portfolio. I finally have my own Smartcat XI - a fairly conservative portfolio with 75% of holdings in large caps.
My portfolio is like New Zealand cricket team. Has the best captain (Fleming <=> Infosys, doesn't score much but is a good leader), will never win the world cup (won't be a multi-bagger) but will still beat Australia (beats the sensex) numerous times.
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 24/May/2007 at 11:58am
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Whenever I invest my dus rupaiah into any stock, it goes boom. TV18 went up by 14% after I put my money - its like magic
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ENIL is in a downturn !!! ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 25/May/2007 at 1:07pm
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I guess I need to stop listening to Radio Indigo and start listening to Radio Mirchi! |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 12:32pm
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After looking at http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=608&PN=5 - vivekkumar's new portfolio concentration strategy , I got inspired and did a little bit of portfolio re-allocation too. Here's how my new portfolio looks like - my own lean mean money making machine. Reliance Communications 24.06%
Aban Offshore 18.20% Infosys Technologies 16.96% Reliance Industries 11.42% Reliance Capital 10.06% UTI Bank 7.92% TV18 India 7.26% Lakshmi Machine Works 4.11% The most obvious change is - Pantaloon is missing. I've decided to get out of Pantaloon after reading Merrill Lynch report. Also, as Basant once said, Pantaloon is no longer a value buy. Everybody is waiting for Pantaloon to unlock value by demerging - and that for me is like waiting for milk to boil or eggs to hatch.
I hope to latch on to the retail growth story in India via Reliance Industries. My Reliance Capital would be a proxy for consumer finance growth story - so I'm kissing goodbye to Future Capital too.
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Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 12:38pm
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so I'm kissing goodbye to Future Capital too.
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My personal feeling is that you became bearish too early on Pantaloon. You should have waited a bit longer in pantaloon untill the value was unlocked.
 Anyway wish u all the best for your new portfolio.  ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 12:50pm
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Actually, I'm not bearish on Pantaloon as such. I just don't like stocks that stay where they are - I'm a bit impatient in that way. I like those that either go up or down!
I'm also seriously considering adding DLF to my portfolio - so that I have my own 'NAVRATNAS'. The reasoning behind this move is - I don't think I'll ever buy land/plot (for investment) or apartment (for staying).
Real estate investment (especially buying land) involves dealing with brokers, lots of paperwork, checking with lawyers to see if all papers are okay.. all these are exasperating for me.
I hear that everybody should have real estate (land or aparments) in their overall portfolio. So till REITs come to India, I hope to ride the real estate story by riding on the DLF.
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Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 1:05pm
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Actually, I'm not bearish on Pantaloon as such. I just don't like stocks that stay where they are - I'm a bit impatient in that way. I like those that either go up or down
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But my Dear Friend stock market is a game of patience . We must have patience to earn big in the market. Basant Sir is that correct? ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 1:21pm
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I'm also seriously considering adding DLF to my portfolio
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I feel we have missed the Real estate bus long ago. We are a bit late on it may be Real estate stock some 15 months back should have been an ideal one.
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My suggestion is that u must compare real estate stocks in the developed country/ india to get a feel about their valuation at present. They can shoot up from here but the real question is there any margin of safety in those stocks now. Whether the promoters are giving correct information about their land banks etc.
Most important question is that how will those Real estate stocks will be valued at. Whether its PE or Nav based.
Most prominent Indian investors ( including Monish of Enam) says that they should be valued at NAV basis. Then whome will u trust to evaluate a real estate company based on NAV basis? These are some concerns on real estate stocks. ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 1:32pm
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While there is not much transparency in valuation of real estate stocks, there is absolute opaqueness when it comes to buying land in Bangalore.
If you want to buy land here, you go to a broker who takes to you a 30 km drive out of Bangalore (but they always advertise it as 30 minute drive from city centre). At that place, after you avoid chickens crossing the road, you end up in a sunsaan area with hills, boulders and no civilization in sight.
The rate? Rs. 300 per sq ft.
Buying apartments doesn't make sense for me because I already have a house to stay. The rental income from a new apartment and price appreciation won't be much.
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Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 1:38pm
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My suggestion is that u must compare real estate stocks in the
developed country/ india to get a feel about their valuation at
present. They can shoot up from here but the real question is there
any margin of safety in those stocks now. -------------------------- The tricky part here is to anticipate the growth in consumption that is being currently anticipated in the developed countries as against India. There is a tightly coupled equation between economic development and boom in construction. So if India has to boom over the next 5-10 years, you must value real estate accordingly. That might not be the case when u compare with the US based real estate companies which form part of a developed economy. Its analogous to buying into a small company that promises higher growth as against buying into big company that promises moderate growth. |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 1:50pm
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RE stocks are not replacement of owing property. One should look RE stock just as a emerging sector only. A sector, which will become significant component of economy. A sector promising wealth creation if rightly picked. Finding right candidate is very important as otherwise. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 1:56pm
Looks quite balanced except that RCOm is a bit on the higher side. The bottom 3 holdings have no relative weightage.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 3:39pm
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RCOM is at such a large percentage because Bharti did well for me. And I transferred all the Bharti holdings to RCOM.
On TED, I have seen numerous posts that basically say that the Ambanis are not trustworthy. Why is that? Have they done anything in the past that makes them untrustworthy? I have over 45% of my stocks with the Ambani brothers.
You sound exactly like my dad!
I told him - Rather than spending Rs. 40 lacs on property, I would rather spend it on a luxury SUV and take it to Ladakh. Tell me which property can do 0 - 100 kmph in 6 seconds?
That's when my dad threatened to evict me out of his house.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 4:05pm
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I told him - Rather than spending Rs. 40 lacs on property, I would rather spend it on a luxury SUV and take it to Ladakh. Tell me which property can do 0 - 100 kmph in 6 seconds?
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Can you use that SUV for the early morning job
 It is not that the Ambanis are not trustworthy but the junior Ambani dilutes equity far too often and my observation was on the weightage not the company really. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 4:10pm
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ha ha yeah - that came up too. Since I cannot afford to buy an apartment or land without taking a loan, shouldn't this be seen as me using leverage (home loan)?
When I don't use leverage for the stock market, how can I use leverage for real estate - something that I really don't know anything about? something that is so illiquid?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 4:17pm
We had a discussion onm using leverage for the stock market.
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=615 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=615 ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 10:28pm
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[QUOTE/] You sound exactly like my dad!
I told him - Rather than spending Rs. 40 lacs on property, I would rather spend it on a luxury SUV and take it to Ladakh. Tell me which property can do 0 - 100 kmph in 6 seconds?
That's when my dad threatened to evict me out of his house. [/QUOTE]I can't stop laughing.. I have similar conversations with my mom too.. I think it is a generation thing.. This may not be relavant to topic here.. But to stop my mom from bothering me too much, I parted away with 4 lakhs in 2002 for 2 grounds in outskirts of Chennai. Now grounds in that area are selling for 12 lakh each.... Thankfully my parents does'nt point out that they were right ..(which we as kids never miss a chance to do so when our parents are wrong..) It may be not be bad after all to indulge them once in a while ..------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 10:55pm
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Since I am in this field, I suggest/recommend all of you to buy one for yourself and another for investmnet. Go through known sources and buy from reputed builders.
Like the way we do for the stocks (good management, high ROE, ROCE, EPS and so on), apply the same principle here also. Value of the site where we have constructed our house now is up by 8 times within 7 years. ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 12:07pm
Sensex has given an average of 20% CAGR since its inception. What is the average real estate returns in the past 20 years? Over a long term, does real estate beat equity?
While I can read up on the internet for equity investments, I have nowhere to go for real estate investments. Chinki - if possible, start a new thread on how to identify land/aparment in a city for investment.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 5:29am
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I parted away with 4 lakhs in 2002 for 2 grounds in outskirts of Chennai. Now grounds in that area are selling for 12 lakh each....
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If you had picked any *stock on 2002, I guess you have never regreted. Imagine what 4 lakhs in 2002 could have become like in tv18, pantaloon, HDFC etc. etc. A decent MF could have given you 7 times.
Timing is very important part of any investment. A story which started from 2002 is one of it's kind. Probably our generation will not witness it again.  but best part...we don't guess it to stop so early either.------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 6:26am
Just buying the sensex would have given you a 5 bagger. |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 6:28am
Real estate investments make sense only when its leveraged. Pay 15% upfront and take out a loan on the remaining 85%. Make sure that you have a steady income to pay the EMIs for the next 2-3 years and then flip. |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 6:51am
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Real estate investments make sense only when its leveraged.
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Non-leverage is way to go..be it anything. CASHFLOW Quadrant book from http://www.richdad.com/about_richdad/richdad_team/robert_kiyosaki.asp - Robert Kiyosaki (rich dad poor dad fame) explained it carefully.
Leverage if last thing to do that to in urgency. Interest paid on EMI seriously erode one's return. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 12:10pm
My turn to reveal my latest portfolio holdings. The last 2 weeks were interesting to say the least.
Comments:
- Some time back, I replaced INFY with TCS. I have a feeling TCS will outperform INFY but only slightly. But because of software stock crash and because of rise in Reliance stocks, its percentage has come down from 16% to 9% now.
- DLF is my real estate investment. I don't own an apartment or a site in Bangalore. But I go around telling everybody that I have a properties spread all over India, but mostly in NCR region.
- Replaced UTI bank with Kotak Bank because Kotak is more 'complete' bank. I did consider Yes Bank too, but it is too small for me and does not have enough retail exposure yet.
- Booked partial profit in RCOM since its weightage climbed over 25% and added to other stocks.
- Punj Lloyd will go to 5 - 8% of my overall portfolio eventually.
- M&M's valuation doesn't make any sense. If I put a holding company discount of 20% for the listed entities M&M owns, its automotive business is trading at a trailing P/E of 6. M&M is my NW18.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 12:21pm
A good large-cap biased portbolio. 
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 12:52pm
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M&M is my NW18.
_________________________________________________________
And NW18 is my M&M. Welcome to the party  ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 1:03pm
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This party is a bummer
 My NW18's (ie, M&M) fortunes are linked to Tech Mahindra. Your M&M's (ie, NW18) fortunes are linked to the market waking up from its slumber and removing/reducing the discount given to holding companies.
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 9:29pm
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Smartcat...after your excellent 'hedging stategy' on crude oil, this is yet another sixer: "I don't own an apartment or a site in Bangalore. But I go around telling everybody that I have a properties spread all over India, but mostly in NCR region"
On a side note, our tigershark's trek to Kargil has this effect on sensex. There is a rumour doing rounds that he has Mt Everest in mind for the next year!
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 12:20pm
| hehe.. If that theory is correct, I don't want tigershark to get back to New Delhi (We don't want a market correction now, do we?). We need to put him on a Ladakh to Nepal flight right away! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 12:22pm
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Why not send him to the moon? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 12:33pm
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I am willing to pick up the tab.
And we got to hide this thread before he comes back.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2007 at 8:01am
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i have reached 18369 before any one of you have done i feel the sensex will get there if i can manage to become the editor of ET when the index touches that figure the headline shall read INDEX AT KHARDUNGLA ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2007 at 8:16am
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Hi, Tiger Wish you a lot of free air at those heights. BTW this market also needs some breath looking at the way it has been sprinting but blow offs in a bull market as we know can be breathtaking! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2007 at 8:30am
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on a serious note i felt the rise has been too fast and atleast for the time being discounts everything rcaps mcap was 28000crs a month back its close to 50000crs as of today now that doesnot make sense, maybe 2-3 yrs from now it will.mkts i feel will correct as the results come in as everyhing is in the price which shall again give us an op to add.btw dth has taken up in a big way in the ladakh region all dishes were dish tvs ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2007 at 10:01am
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btw dth has taken up in a big way in the ladakh region all dishes were dish tvs
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Wow! So this trip was worth it. Did you talk to the general people out there and if at all stocks (CNBC TV18) interest them or are they aware of what is going on in the markets and the kind of money people are making here. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2007 at 11:14am
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Welcome back Doctor saab!
The only thing that didn't change while you were away was Goa CM/Govt!
And if the market were really to follow your altitude from MSL, now you are back at sea-level!! So, correction is due?
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2007 at 12:26pm
I wonder if the transmission is better there. The Ladakhis are the closer to the satellites than the rest of us!
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2007 at 1:18pm
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I wonder if the transmission is better there. The Ladakhis are the closer to the satellites than the rest of us!
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But smartcat... don't plan a trek just for this reason. Bcoz as per a Ladakhi day-trader, Mitali looks just the same as she does on TV in Bengaluru.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2007 at 6:42pm
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my taxi driver said that DTH is the best thing that ever happened who is interested in seeing movies.people watch cnbc awaaz there, saw a big poster of tataaig infratructure mf open for subscription, poeple are being advised to get pan cards, jk bank is all over the place and i suppose they are doing well.property prices in and around srinagar have gone thru the roof,construction activity at its peak in srinagar huge bungalows coming up dont ask from where the money is coming have no idea, tourism is limpling back to normal,agriculture,floriculture,handicrafts are doing well.in ladakh region tourism is booming.ataxi owner takes home 3-4lacs,hotel owner 10-15lacs tour operator7-8 lacs ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2007 at 6:44pm
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smartcat r yu interested in ZANSKER TREK 20 days next yr maybe july or august. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2007 at 7:18pm
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You are sure all those guys watch awaaz!!!maybe that is why CNBC had that Shariyat compliant investing seminar in the Valley. Any stocks that the Taxi driver told you to buy. Is he bullish on Titan and Punj lloyd? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2007 at 7:19pm
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I know about this trek. But unfortunately, I cannot unplug from the internet for such a long time. Business doob jayega. That's why wherever I go, I lug around my laptop and my Reliance data card.
I know life is very sad if I have to be plugged in all the time, but that's the way things are right now.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2007 at 8:18pm
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i dont know whether all watch awaaz but you do get it in most of the hotels and my house boat walla said that day trading is catching up with the younger gen.basant my taxidriver DIDNOT LOOK LIKE RAKESH J. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2007 at 8:29pm
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...house boat walla said that day trading is catching up with the younger gen...
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Hmmm....they haven't yet experienced an avalanche in markets. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 03/Dec/2007 at 11:47am
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After a relatively long period of inactivity (60 days), I finally made major changes in the portfolio to make the broker happy. After all, uski paapi pate ka sawaal hain.
Take a look at the new patented way in which the portfolio is now structured.
Aces:
Aban Offshore 16.93
Reliance Industries 14.54 Kotak Mahindra Bank 13.64 Punj Lloyd 13.30 DLF Ltd. 11.83 Kings:
Pantaloon Retail 6.96 Reliance Capital 4.55 GVK Power & Infra 3.55 Adani Enterprises 3.16 Mundra Port & SEZ 3.13 Yes Bank 3.13 Jokers:
Pidilite Industries 1.10
Vishal Retail Ltd. 1.06 Jai Prakash Associates 1.06 I T C 1.06 Transport Corp 1.01 - My portfolio has a few aces, handful of kings and a pack of jokers. The intention was to create a "concentrated diversified" portfolio.
- I know from TED experience that concentrated portfolio generates more returns. But I like too many companies and their business models- hence the new plan.
- The aces (5 stocks) of the pack constitute 70% of the portfolio. It is partly inspired by TheEquityDesk XI - which is a mix of aggressive and conservative stocks.
- Most of the stocks in the Kings category have net profits in the range of Rs. 100 crores. But they have the potential to generate profits on a log scale (Eg: Rs. 150 crores next year, 500 crores, 1000 crores and so on). But I don't have the conviction yet to invest more in these stocks - but the kings will eventually become the aces of my portfolio.
- The jokers of the pack are just that - a bunch of jokers. Great business models, but mostly overvalued. I'm waiting for the earnings to catch up with the prices.
- The stocks under kings and the jokers might not be able to move the portfolio on their own, but if they join hands together, they can move mountains!
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Dec/2007 at 12:42pm
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The biggest ace in this portfolio is the seggregation. Excellent classification.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 04/Dec/2007 at 12:53pm
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You have picked up Winners !! ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 04/Dec/2007 at 1:06pm
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.....new patented way in which the portfolio is now structured.
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 Excellent way of presentation! If you start wearing suit-boot, you'd give tough fight to those MBAs.Having said that...surprised to not see any Queen? Any specific reason or is it bcoz you don't wish to be remember Ash anymore?
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 04/Dec/2007 at 1:08pm
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Any specific reason or is it bcoz you don't wish to be remember Ash anymore?
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Nowadays i guess he is more interested in Unmarried woman (Vidya Balan) ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 04/Dec/2007 at 2:35pm
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Ash ko maaro goli. Pantaloon (7% weightage) could be the Queen. When a company is growing its topline at 80% per annum but the bottomline is not able to keep up because of capex/expansion, then it is a good candidate for profits going up on logarithmic scale in the future.
I got re-acquainted with Pantaloon after I read their colourful annual report on their website.
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 04/Dec/2007 at 7:25am
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Boss, you have made favorite companies jokers in the portfolio. I believe Pidilite and ITC have already done their bit and are not likely to turn up wild-card throwings anymore. At best, they are now staple bread and butter sort of plays now. I opine that by jokers you mean something which can throw you unexpected/extra-ordinary returns which cannot be estimated at the moment.
However, your plan impressed me. I had a similar chess-board style of accumulating stocks. I used to call my stocks knights, bishops etc. But given my style I had to reframe the chess-board as I ended up accumulating more than 8 pawns as allowed. So discontinued that style of functioning.
But one thing....as far as I know cards, as I play only bridge and rummy, you should work out aces, Kings, queens , jacks, jokers etc. in order of your anticipated return. Aces are those which are the trumps. Kings should be non-losers, Queens the seducers, jacks what people perceive as idiot picks and jokers should be something which even you dont know what to do with them......
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 04/Dec/2007 at 11:31am
hehehe.. you can't please both Fidel Castro and George Bush at the same time.
Anyway, since you have 200+ stocks in your portfolio, I'm assuming my weightage on ITC and Pidilite (1% each) is more than that of your portfolio?
I'm not expecting big extra-ordinary returns from the Joker pack (ITC, TCI, Pidilite, JP Ass etc) right now - hence the 1% weightage. But as the business evolves in the next few years, they might do well.
Eg: Pidilite will continue launching new innovative products but it could take some years for the new product launches to influence the net profits.
ITC's is trading at a P/E of 25 but will see a net profit growth of 20% over the next 2 - 3 years. But after that, the FMCG/Agri businesses could kick in - and then ITC could see 30% plus growth rates for atleast a couple of years.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 05/Dec/2007 at 1:51pm
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200 stocks? is he collecting stocks like people collect stamps? ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 05/Dec/2007 at 6:43pm
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ya man, you are right. ITC and Pidilite are less than a percent of family portfolio. However, the portfolio which i take care of, ITC is more than a percent. But please use a better term than joker for ITC and Pidilite......I am visualising and cant resist laughing..... |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/Dec/2007 at 6:47pm
| Don't like Joker? The only other term I can think of, and related to playing cards is - Jack(ass) |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 05/Dec/2007 at 6:52pm
| jack-ass......mere bhai, nehla bol do, dehla do.....yaar itni gaaliyan kyon in donno baccho ko....abhi to bacche crawl hi kar rahe hain...... |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 10/Jan/2008 at 12:37pm
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2 major changes since the last update -
- I think Kotak Mahindra Bank's stock price will grow faster than Reliance Capital from here. So, got out of Reliance Capital and invested the proceeds into Yes Bank and Kotak.
- Slowly getting out of Aban Offshore. Will complete the exit by this year end. But right now, Aban is my source of cash. If anything interesting comes up, I am selling Aban to raise money for investment. The big trigger for Aban in the short term is the listing of Aban Singapore.
Current Portfolio Allocation:
Reliance Industries 12.51
Punj Loyd 12.36
DLF 12.13
Kotak Bank 12.12
Adani Enterprises 10.08
Pantaloon Retail 7.53
Aban Offshore 6.73
GVK Power & Infra 6.14
Yes Bank 5.40
Mundra Port & SEZ 3.41
Transport Corp 3.07
Shiv Vani 3.02
Vishal Retail 1.19
JP Associates 1.18
Edelweiss Capital 1.05
Pidilite 0.93
ITC 0.57
Tata Motors 0.49
Market Cap Classification:
Large Caps: 59.3%
Mid Caps : 32.3%
Small Caps: 8.4%
Sector Classification:
Oil & Gas - 22.1%
Infrastructure - 21.6% Financial Services - 18.5% Real Estate - 12.1% Retail & Logistics - 11.8% Diversified - 11.3% FMCG - 1.5% Automobiles - 0.5% |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 10/Jan/2008 at 12:56pm
Kya baat hain smartcat jee. Solid systematic representation of portfolio. Cheers.  ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 10/Jan/2008 at 1:46pm
Can you share whats the story in Shiv Vani?
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 10/Jan/2008 at 2:25pm
| You can read all about Shiv Vani on http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1274 - this thread . This company has earnings growth visibility for 5+ years and I expect it to grow at about 50% CAGR. |
Posted By: catcall
Date Posted: 10/Jan/2008 at 8:42pm
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This stock continues to be one Sharekhan's top investment picks ------------- There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing! |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 2:47pm
Any changes, dear smartcat to this portfolio of yours. Your portfolio is something I always try to analyse well. Hence asking......
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 2:48pm
| Where's Cairn Energy in your portfolio.......????????????????????????? |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 3:13pm
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Looking at Indiabulls Financials. Motilal Oswal expects them to do a net profit of Rs. 1,800 crores in FY10. Just finished reading Indiabulls' FY07 Annual Report. Management seems to be very cocky and aggressive. And the current market cap is around Rs. 16,000 crores.
Am contemplating reducing Mundra to 1% but haven't taken a decision yet. - Finance Ministry has put a spanner in the wheels.
I have a feeling Ambani Baba will discover more oil & gas in India than these gorey sahebs (Yeah, I'm racist when it comes to stock picking).
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 3:15pm
| Just a small piece of suggestion......given your investing style include something in the healthcare sector. That will make your portfolio a bit balanced......my humble opinion, please ignore in case you think otherwise. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 3:33pm
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Reading up on Glenmark and will look into Wockhardt Hospitals post-listing. Wockhardt Hospital's operating profits have gone up from Rs. 11 crores in FY04 to Rs. 54 crores in FY08 (9 months). OPM is around 20%. Topline is growing at 50% CAGR. Bottomline/EPS hurts because of high depreciation.
However, I am not aware of any Western hospital stock trading at a market cap of over $2 billion. So I'm not sure if the opportunity is big in the hospitals business.
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 3:38pm
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How many countries in the west have a population of over a billion???? whats their hospital to a million person population ratio and whats ours?????? |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 4:07pm
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I remember discussions w.r.t. Apollo Hospitals, wherein Basant had mentioned that, this is a capital intensive industry, where they need to invest heavily on the machines/instruments. ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 7:04pm
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first out of the 1billion only the top 10% of the pyramid can go to wockhardt hospital the rest will go to govt hospitals.the ppp of indians has not yet reached the level of usa.by the time the middle class starts going there there will be more competition.hospitals suck money and its difficult to generate free cash flow. the best way to play a billion people is thru retail anything retail ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 7:13pm
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Reposting what I had written in a similar thread earlier
The oppurtunity for healthcare is manifold in India , with the advent of medical tourism this sector is bound to grow , typically healtcare in most developed countries is in the public domain and privae institutions have a minimal role to play , on this front India offers a different play , our public health system has nothing much to show and this creates a good oppurtunity for the private sector to take the oppurtunity in two hands but again the cost issues come up .
This sector is highly capital intensive , dependant a lot on technology ( as it keeps changing and new things keep coming up) and also depends a lot on the doctors in the hospitals which means to say this is a very people intensive and relationship based business ( a couple of bad doctors can make or break the hospital) Also a another important thing that needs to be checked is the model that they are offering usually corporate hospitals operate in three ways own and operate it lease out the facility and operate it franchise model each of these has own disadvn and advn ... Coming to wockhardt ...its been around in this business for a long time and Mr Khokariwala is one of the veterans in the pharma space and has done a decent job so far in the pharma space but that doesnt mean it will repeat itself here also.
Valuations needs to be checked and risk associated also needs to be factored in. I can speak cause I held Apollo Hosp for a long time it was 3x return when the sensex gave a 7x return. ------------- Warm REgards Nitin Jagtap |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 1:31am
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Does DLF 12% deserve so much weightage? Market gave thumbs down to the results, but one positive thing from the mgmt talk is, 10yr sufficient landbank, generation of huge cash over a period of time without spending much money.
------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 4:20am
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I wrote about hospitals at listing of Fortis Healthcare. My views remains same....It is a glamorous sector but no wealth creator. High depreciation of assets & high capital intake negate all positives that we media reports at times......A sector with no takers......
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2008 at 7:00am
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if a co is ready to lower its issue price just becos the mkt has fallen it says a lot about the mgmnt and their true intentions! ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |