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Portfolio Check Up
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 9:55am
Originally posted by smartcat

Surprising....you used to appear as one of the most 'enterprising' investors.
 
However, in stocks, you have to take into account relative valuations, rather than just take into account absolute valuations. So, although a Great eastern Shipping may be offering me 3.5 p.c yield, but I may sell it if SRF is getting me almost 9-10 p.c. So, its not just what valuations my stocks are commanding, its also important to keep the eyes open to spot better opportunities. 
 
What I mentioned there was just my new entry/exit strategy, not a stock picking plan. Dividend yield is not everything for me - I need to like the business before I buy it.
 
For example, I gave Graphite India and TNPL a pass inspite of high yield.
 
Graphite India gets a big percentage of its sales from outside India - that could affect its performance in the future (it hasn't in the past, but still..). Plus Graphite India has no control over its raw material costs.
 
TNPL is a bagasse based paper company. And bagasse is obtained from sugar cane. And sugar cane industry in India is crazy. So TNPL is a big NO for me - I would rather go for WCPL which has control over its raw material costs.
 
I see your argument like this:
 
Business is a necessary condition, but dividend is a sufficient condition for making an investment. 
 
So, in effect, dividend becomes a part of your stock-picking plan without your realising it.  


Edited by Vivek Sukhani - 19/Jul/2009 at 9:56am
Jai Guru!!!
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go4sheel
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Quote go4sheel Replybullet Posted: 20/Jul/2009 at 4:29pm
Hi Smartcat,

According to CNBCTV18:

"One stock which has been highly buzzing on back of this Adani Power IPO is Adani Enterprise which is a listed entity and that is because Adani Enterprise holds nearly 153 crore shares in Adani Power, which is going to be coming up with an IPO. If you just assume Rs 100 the total value of that stake in Adani Power comes to around Rs 15,300 crore (fifteen thousand three hundred crore) and if we count Rs 110 per share then it goes to Rs 16,800 crore"

Now it is said that AEL holds 83% in APL and post IPO it will comedown to 73.5% or 70.25%, then how did they arrive at 153 crore shares...?
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 20/Jul/2009 at 5:03pm
http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-41170720090720
 
The IPO through a fresh issue of 301.65 million shares will constitute 13.84 percent of the post-issue capital.
 
13.84% equals 30 crore shares
So, 70% equals around 150 crore shares.
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go4sheel
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Quote go4sheel Replybullet Posted: 20/Jul/2009 at 12:39pm
If Adani Power lists at Rs.110 then its value in AEL will be Rs. 16800 crore (153 crore shares), so what will be value of AEL without considering the Adani Power's value...?

Current market cap of AEL @ 850 = Rs. 20,000 crore.
So post IPO listing @ Rs. 110 = Rs. 16800 + ?
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 20/Jul/2009 at 11:36am
Adani Enterprises could have a 20% higher market cap than Adani Power, in my opinion.
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go4sheel
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Quote go4sheel Replybullet Posted: 22/Jul/2009 at 12:18pm
Hi Smartcat,

After Adani Power, have you studied the plans of Indiabulls Power and Sterlite Energy...? is there any value unlocking in them...?

Also are you tracking Cals Refinery...?
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go4sheel
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Quote go4sheel Replybullet Posted: 22/Jul/2009 at 12:22pm
Hi Smartcat,

In IDFC-SSKI and Enam report they have shown that after FY 2014, the growth of Adani Enterprise will be quite flat if no capacity addition of power is done... then what will be the PE of AEL at that time, because then that will lead to PE contraction...
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catcall
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Quote catcall Replybullet Posted: 22/Jul/2009 at 9:12am
Originally posted by go4sheel



Also are you tracking Cals Refinery...?


Unless you have a speculative interest in mind, stay away from Cals refinery , one look at it's 'vital statistics' will tell you why...
There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing!
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