DishTV- Multibagger in the long term
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
Forum Discription: These are companies operating in growing markets having have certain niches or specific attributes like new sector plays. These are emerging multibaggers with high risks and high rewards.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=856
Printed Date: 17/Apr/2025 at 10:01pm
Topic: DishTV- Multibagger in the long term
Posted By: basant
Subject: DishTV- Multibagger in the long term
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2007 at 11:16am
Dish is available at Rs 103. We have discussed the http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=628 - implications of pay tv in other threads and I think that in 4 years Dish could go up by 4 times.The only problem is we can get it lower. Company would break even in Fy09 so till it actually breaks even the stocks could correct lower but over the next few years this is the space to be in. We have been discussing Dish in the http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=442 - ZeeTv thread in some detail till now.
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Replies:
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2007 at 11:37am
Subhash Chandra, Chairman, Dish TV says that about Rs 500 crore have been raised. The money raised will be invested in distribution business for Dish TV and WWIL. They are targeting a user base of 10 million by 2010, from the current two million.
Dish TV's current ARPU is at Rs 230-240 per month, which will grow to Rs 400. They are looking at an ARPU growth of 10-12% (YoY).
He adds that the capex needs for now will be taken care of by the Rs 500 crore raised. They see an EBITDA of USD 400 million by 2010-end
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2007 at 11:45am
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/new_reply_form.asp?M=Q&PID=20900&PN=22&TR=172"> http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/new_reply_form.asp?PID=20900&PN=22&TR=172"> http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=442&PID=20900#20900"> Posted: Today at 10:17am |
pl remember this business is like the MOBILE BUSINESS inital capex is high but once the critical number of 3.5 million is reached co becomes cash positive thereafter every suscriber goes directly to the bottomline. things to watch---- at what rate suscriber base grows,competition from rivals, after sales service.this is an interesting business with potential hence mkt may value it ata billion rupees so lets see |
tigershark |
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If break even comes at 3.5 mn users then at what will happen at 10 mn users by 2010 as claimed by Mr Subhash Chandra?
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Posted By: Rinku
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 12:49pm
DTH service provider Dish TV India was trading at Rs 109.90 on BSE, supported by huge volumes.
Earlier, the Zee Group's demerged direct-to-home (DTH) arm listed at Rs 120 on the BSE against a base price of Rs 115. Dish TV has touched an intraday high/low of Rs 120 and Rs 100, respectively.
The stock has a circuit filter of 20%.
Dish TV India, previously known as ASC Enterprises, got demerged from Zee Entertainment Enterprises (ZEE) with effect from 12 February 2007 as part of the Zee group’s restructuring exercise.
The listing of Dish TV, which was earlier expected in late-March 2007, was earlier deferred due to a delay in getting regulatory approvals.
Dish TV commenced its operations in May 2005, by launching DTH services and was the first private Indian company to initiate DTH satellite broadcast operations in the country.
For every 100 shares of ZEE, shareholders were given 57.50 shares of Dish TV.
The paid-up equity capital of Dish TV India is Rs 42.82 crore. The face value per share is Re 1.
ENAM India Research, in a curtain raiser, has issued 'buy' rating on the scrip at Rs 120. Citigroup has estimated a fair value of Rs 90 - Rs 120 for Dish TV.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 2:58pm
Originally posted by praveenmbd
With Rs 115 as base price fixed of DISH TV by BSE and 20% circuit limit would yuo advise to shift into another media company like ENIL OR TV 18. |
It is a no brainer whether diversified portfolios should have Dish or not I am 100% sure it must. I still rate TV 18 beter because results are expected in Tv18 earlier compared to DIsh; ENIL is not comparable as it is radio play.
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 4:25pm
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 4:35pm
But please be informed that Dish could test patience, conviction and opportunity cost. Company will break even in 2009 so the waiting period is something that we have to be mentally prepared about. No short term magic here.
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 4:57pm
Dish TV could be Rs 5000 cr co in 5 yrs: Enam
2007-04-18 11:02:19 Source : Moneycontrol.com
Manish Chokhani of Enam Consultants analyses forward going http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/miscellaneous/dishtv/11/06/pricechartquote/marketprice/DTV - Dish TV standing. He says Dish TV is likely to add 1 crore subscribers in the next 5 years. It could be a Rs 5,000 crore company in 5 years.
He sees EBITDA margins at 30-35% levels. But Dish TV profits are seen muted initially. The USD 100 million block of Dish TV has been placed with 6-7 big players. Out of the USD 100 million block, about 85% has been placed with FIIs.
< ="http://202.87.40.52/promos/sponsor_news.js">
He adds that the proceeds from sale of Rs 4 crore shares by promoters, will be used for expansion. Dish TV ARPUs can go up to USD10-11 per month.
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Posted By: pramodjain
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 5:42pm
Can Dish TV become as big as Bharti AirTel in the coming 5 to 6 year or you say opportunity is not that big 
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 6:37pm
It can become big but let us lay down the concerns because the opportunity is well debated:
1) Management- Subhas Chandra is not the best of the lot we all know how he was allegedly involved with KP during the tech boom
2) Company will take time to break even. Once that happens rapid expansion could take place. Now the rpoblem is that the waiting period could be significant. Since I want to hold the best stock in any industry I have not made up my mind on this one because money is finite and opportunities infinite but in case you are holding a diversified portfolio buy it like a Kisan Vikas Patra and do not look at the price for 24 months at least.
3) the competition angle is there but I am not too much bothered by it in the long run.
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 8:46pm
I would still choose TV18 or Ntwk18 over DishTV. Firstly bcoz of my portfolio concentration and 2ndly bcoz of RB.
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 10:23pm
as per om report under network18 lets say dth subs reach 38 million by 2015 and dish manages a 25% mkt share now thats close to 9 million subs and even if we keep arpu at 325 we have a co whose revenue shall be3500 crs from around 700 crs.so if subash chandra does not play his old tricks and does not dilute equity then we have a minimum 4-5 bagger here. i have tended to be conservative with the subs and arpu. the trick here would be to buy the stock as cheap as possible.what will be the historical bottom only time will tell
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 10:29pm
I totally understand doctor sa'ab, but Ntwk18 I am looking from a content provider point of view and also how they could exploit Studio18 & HSN. There is also a chance(remote maybe) for RB to start providing DTH or CAS-related services who knows. Also 2010 is max. where I can look. 2015 too far away as Basant sir mentioned. Your point also is totally fair, thanks.
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 10:29pm
2015 is too far off. 5 times in 8 years means a meagre 23% annualised growth. It should happen in 4 years or else there is just no fun here!
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 10:51pm
i have gone as per the report but manish chokani of enam has other ideas reg dish his take is available on money control if some one could be kind enough to paste it here, basant what do yu feel bout manishs report or is he being too optimistic.i do own nw18 and have added recently it is just that DTH MAYBE A NEW BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY and as basant says buy the leader.again everything is good in this world BUT at a certain price
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 10:55pm
Here is the link Doctor sir:
http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/news/marketoutlook/manishchokhanienamconsultants/dishtvcouldbers/market/stocks/article/276752 - http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/news/marketoutlook/manishchokhanienamconsultants/dishtvcouldbers/market/stocks/article/276752
Manish Chokhani of Enam Consultants analyses forward going http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/miscellaneous/dishtv/11/06/pricechartquote/marketprice/DTV - Dish TV standing. He says Dish TV is likely to add 1 crore subscribers in the next 5 years. It could be a Rs 5,000 crore company in 5 years.
He sees EBITDA margins at 30-35% levels. But Dish TV profits are seen muted initially. The USD 100 million block of Dish TV has been placed with 6-7 big players. Out of the USD 100 million block, about 85% has been placed with FIIs.
He adds that the proceeds from sale of Rs 4 crore shares by promoters, will be used for expansion. Dish TV ARPUs can go up to USD10-11 per month.
Talking about Tata Steel, he says the company using more equity than debt is a good thing. He sees incremental USD 800 million EBITDA from Corus.
Excerpts from the exclusive interview with Manish Chokhani:
Q: How lucrative is this whole cable distribution or television distribution business, you think and the prospects for DTH?
A: This is the birth of a new industry, very much like what has happened with cellular telephony. I can’t be stricken by the similarities between what happened when Bharti listed for the first time and how there was skepticism, very similar to what is happening here. There are 70 million homes currently in India which are connected to cable and this number is only going to grow in the future years and probably double over the next 5-7 years to be at least consistent with what’s happened on cellular telephony.
One can imagine that at least 50-60 million homes will be connected to digital set top boxes with the rollout of conditional access into the country as you get better quality of transmission and television. Lot of these companies, which are now coming out will be large beneficiaries of this. It will be a 6000 crore company potentially in the next 5 years and you can see about a 30-35% EBITDA margins very similar to what you have seen in telecom for companies like this. So you are potentially looking at companies which are going to make couple of Rs 1000 crore of profit getting listed and this is just the first of that nature which is coming out. This is a great time and a good space to be in.
Q: How do you value such companies? Do you take a call on what kind of cash flows would be there in 3-4 years down the line given ARPUs? Do you try and use global benchmarks and ascribe a certain value to the number of subscribers that they have?
A: Naturally it’s a combination of everything. One immediate proxy of course is that Sun TV has just announced that it did a block to a Malaysian DTH operator, effectively valuing its yet to be launched DTH business at about USD 850 million valuation and Dish for instance has already more than 2 million subscribers. So you can see where the market is getting proxy from, these are businesses which lot of foreign players will want to come in and take stakes in.
You already have Tata Sky which is unlisted as yet but which also at some point will come out and get listed. The second of course is to use the telecom analogy that lot of these businesses invests capital upfront and you don’t have apparent profits for a year or two again.
I suspect the explosion in market cap across this space for content providers and distributors will be very large. The best way to do it is to project out 3-4 years, put a number and see whether this can company potentially make a couple of Rs 1000 crore of EBITDA. Its evidence by a large block that we were able to do today, which again the promoters will put back into the company to fund its ongoing growth.
Q: Who did you place the block to without mentioning names, how many players?
A: I think it is 6-7 people where about 85% would be FIIs and minor amount with local funds. These are serious players who have seen this sort of magnification of market cap across countries and across sectors including in cellular telephony and that’s the kind of bet that people want to take here.
I suspect this will play out a bit like it happened in telephony with companies like Bharti or even Idea cellular, which is really the number 5 player now, which already has USD 6 billion as market cap, which is now fairly matured. So I think there is great fun ahead for a lot of these DTH as well as cable businesses apart from the content providers themselves who effectively will start monetizing their content now.
Q: Who sold this block of 400 crore shares?
A: It has actually come from the promoter group because for regulatory reasons they cannot make a fresh issuance for a period of 6 months until the stock is listed. So they will use this proceeds and put it back into the company to finance its ongoing growth.
Q: What kind of an ARPU growth do you see in this business aside of the whole subscriber story and the volumes story, do you think you could build a good ARPU growth story as well or pretty much like cellular telephony?
A: You will have a bit of both happening because the whole cable business is currently coming into the conditional access regime plus the content itself is getting digitized and some people are choosing free to air whereas others are choosing content.
I suspect the outlay is very similar to cellular in the sense that you would pay Rs 300-400 per home for connection into a set top box. The set top box itself will cost you pretty much the same as what the cellular handset will cost you. So in that sense the outlays are common except in a cell phone it is 4 people in a family which are spending presumably Rs 300-400 a month whereas here it’s a box into a house where 4-5 people can sit down and watch television together.
There is a good case for ARPUs to actually go up here to probably USD 10-11 a month, if you then take the implied EBITDA multiples which are possible to make in these businesses, valuations can be extremely high over here.
Q: A quick though on the funding plan which TISCO unveiled yesterday. Were you a bit surprised at the higher level of equity that they are using rather than debt?
A: I am actually quite pleased because when you are at the 3:1 debt equity ratio and in a business which while it looks very bullish, there are cycles over there and as a prudent businessman I would always want to de-risk by having a lot more equity as part of my component of financing rather than stay extremely leveraged. So as a passive equity shareholder a dilution hurts me in the short run.
But it makes the company a lot stronger going forward. If you take the case the dilution is on the underlying earnings of TISCO today; the implied benefits are of getting Corus and not the price at which they bought it. Presumably at some point of time they will start shipping product out from here, there could be potentially to our mind about USD 800 million incremental EBITDA there.
Q: How is the whole global equity situation panning out? Is it quite rosy for the last couple of weeks?
A: We just spoke on Friday, so nothing significantly has changed, its hard to make a bear case for India, its hard to make a staggering bull case too, so 2007 seems to be the year of consolidation. But 2008 why should we not be 15-20% higher than where we are, that’s really the summary of thoughts.
Hope this is the one you meant.
Source: http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/news/marketoutlook/manishchokhanienamconsultants/dishtvcouldbers/market/stocks/article/276752 - MoneyControl.com
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 11:12pm
Tigershark: I am absolutely in agreement with Manish Chokhani's view. We have been discussing Dish here but what I meant to suggest was that this stock could go nowhere for 12-24 months and that is what we should be ready to face if we invest in this one. Remember that Bharti also went down to Rs 20 after getting listed at Rs 45.
At the end of it it would not matter whether you bought Tv18 or Dish or Zee because when a sector explodes a person holding Satyam does not complaint because he did not buy Infosys with that money.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 9:26am
see some vehicle has to take cnbstv18 and cnn ibn and of course the others to more indian homes now one of that vehicle is DTH it is also a vehicle which yu control sitting at home.so not only the stake holders but even the content providers,andtelevision cos would like to see this business grow of course the local cablewallah would hate to see a dish sticking out of your roof!
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2007 at 10:21am
I understand all that but it is very important for us to know that DISH is no magic wand. If you have seen SSKI's report they are predicting an EPS of Rs 2.43 for Fy 10.
See Manish Chokhani could not talk negative yesterday. He had done a placement to a group of FII's at Rs 113 I am not doubting his credentials but just trying to put the facts straight so that we investors understand that there could be a period of underperformance in Dish.
Even if you see Bharti (I have followed it very closely) the stock did fall after all institutions got their bit so it is not that DIsh is going on a one way ride from today.
Long term media will explode and that is what we are all focused on!!!
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 1:34pm
I was thinking about DIsh vis-a-vis a Bharti and it appeared that the comparision though compelling is a bit beyond the point. Bharti controls 21% of the entire mobile telepohony market whereas Dish by 2010 will control 25% of the DTH market - the cable homes are different and still there would be homes which have no cable and no Dish.
Also the number of mobile phones in each home is always more then the number of Tv sets!!!
All said and done Dish does remain a great bet!
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 1:40pm
Originally posted by basant
I understand all that but it is very important for us to know that DISH is no magic wand. If you have seen SSKI's report they are predicting an EPS of Rs 2.43 for Fy 10.
See Manish Chokhani could not talk negative yesterday. He had done a placement to a group of FII's at Rs 113 I am not doubting his credentials but just trying to put the facts straight so that we investors understand that there could be a period of underperformance in Dish.
Even if you see Bharti (I have followed it very closely) the stock did fall after all institutions got their bit so it is not that DIsh is going on a one way ride from today.
Long term media will explode and that is what we are all focused on!!!
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As per SSKI DTH penetration will be 16 mn households by 2010 and Dish tv share will be 4.4 mn whereas Mr Subhash Chandra claims thaese figures at 30 mn and 10 mn respectively. There is huge variation in estimation. If SSKI estimation comes out to be true, this will be bad for dish tv.
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Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 2:18pm
Basant,
But with IPTV the big players like Bharti, Rcom can easily ramp up there systems and give a serious threat to Dish and Tata sky.They would not let such a revenue addition to bottomline go by so easily ?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 2:40pm
IPTV will grow but it would certainly grow that much to make a dent to DTH or Cable. ALl delivery mediums will exist.
I would believe more in what the management says but I just wanted to state what SSKI has in mind.ALso if it does not happen by 2010 it will happen in 2012. The question is one of time only.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 3:20pm
i do agree with yu basant, there is no hurry to buy this stock but it needs to be kept right there on our radar as i say the cheaper we buy it the higher are our returns.i wonder what SSKI would have said about dish if they had made the placement intead of enam?
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 3:37pm
Originally posted by tigershark
i do agree with yu basant, there is no hurry to buy this stock but it needs to be kept right there on our radar as i say the cheaper we buy it the higher are our returns.i wonder what SSKI would have said about dish if they had made the placement intead of enam? |
But many times we do not get the price because the whole country wants to buy it at Rs 80 so in these cases it does make sense to take an initial position and then evaluate it from there.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 4:29pm
OK i do have some credited in my ac from the split of zeel can add some more and then watch the price and the suscriber numbers
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: equity analyst
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 5:46pm
Its fair to buy Dish tv , but i think more people trust Tata Sky then Dish Tv because of TATA brand value, and down the line when Tata sky would be listed Dish Tv would loose its charm.
------------- "Markets are the places where two types of people meet up in the morning: those with experience and those with money. Towards the end of the day, they exchange their assets and go home."
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 9:39pm
possible ,but note that more poeple trust bharhi and relinfo than tataindicom.what will differntiate is the quality and aftersales service
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: equity analyst
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 10:08am
but in this case things are diffrent,the maximum no of people i know local and national ,they r goin for tata Sky ,and u yourself call Dish Tv help line no and then Tata Sky help line no , u will know the diffrence. I think tata sky will provide more quality after sales service.
------------- "Markets are the places where two types of people meet up in the morning: those with experience and those with money. Towards the end of the day, they exchange their assets and go home."
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2007 at 5:46pm
Originally posted by praveenmbd
Originally posted by basant
I understand all that but it is very important for us to know that DISH is no magic wand. If you have seen SSKI's report they are predicting an EPS of Rs 2.43 for Fy 10.
See Manish Chokhani could not talk negative yesterday. He had done a placement to a group of FII's at Rs 113 I am not doubting his credentials but just trying to put the facts straight so that we investors understand that there could be a period of underperformance in Dish.
Even if you see Bharti (I have followed it very closely) the stock did fall after all institutions got their bit so it is not that DIsh is going on a one way ride from today.
Long term media will explode and that is what we are all focused on!!!
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As per SSKI DTH penetration will be 16 mn households by 2010 and Dish tv share will be 4.4 mn whereas Mr Subhash Chandra claims thaese figures at 30 mn and 10 mn respectively. There is huge variation in estimation. If SSKI estimation comes out to be true, this will be bad for dish tv.
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MPA sees pay-TV penetration growing from 61 per cent of TV homes in 2006 to reach almost 90 per cent by 2015. Of this, more than 37 per cent of pay-TV users will be connected to a digital network by then, the larger numbers coming from DTH. The report estimates that there will be 23 million digital pay-TV cable subs by 2015 as against 38 million for DTH.
The main point is that Mr Subhash Chandra claims DTH market of 30 million by 2010. Is this possible?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2007 at 5:52pm
What is MPA and where did you see that report? Also DIsh's growth is dependent upon CAS being mandated by the GOvt. unless there is compulsory CAS it would be difficult to grow an industry at 100% CAGR. But with newer players getting in the market would grow maybe if it does not happen by 2010 then surely by 2011-12.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2007 at 6:03pm
Originally posted by basant
What is MPA and where did you see that report? Also DIsh's growth is dependent upon CAS being mandated by the GOvt. unless there is compulsory CAS it would be difficult to grow an industry at 100% CAGR. But with newer players getting in the market would grow maybe if it does not happen by 2010 then surely by 2011-12. |
India will lead Asia in digital pay-TV, broadband seen slow: report
Findings of a research report released by Hong Kong based Media Partners Asia (MPA) entitled “Asia Pacific Pay-TV and Broadband Markets 2007”.
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=628&PN=33 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=628&PN=33
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2007 at 2:48pm
RBI disallows Investment by FIIs/NRIs/PIOs under PIS in Dish TV India Ltd
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The Reserve Bank of India has today notified that under Portfolio Investment Scheme (PIS), no further purchases of shares of Dish TV India Ltd., should be made on behalf of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)/Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) through stock exchanges in India. The Reserve Bank has stated that Dish TV India Ltd., has reached the over all limit of 49 per cent of its paid up capital.
| Source: Equity Bulls
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2007 at 3:04pm
Good post. This would allow the stock to cool down (if at all) and then investors could take positions.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 22/Apr/2007 at 9:00am
Originally posted by basant
Good post. This would allow the stock to cool down (if at all) and then investors could take positions. |
This what i have figured out ENUM report. According to ENUM, the present value of share is 120rs.
Current subscribers as on 2006 = 0.9 mn Estimated subscribers as on 2011 with 51% CAGR = 7.1 mn
Subscribers (mn) 6 6.5 7.1 7.6 8 370 570 595 625 650 670 390 601 628 659 685 706 ARPU 410 632 660 696 721 743 Rs 430 663 692 727 756 779 450 694 724 760 791 815
By 2011, Dish TV Revenues = 696 USD mn.
Revenue in 2011 from Dish TV (USD mn) 696 EBITDA @ 24% 167 EV - @ 12X EV/ EBITDA (USD bn) ~ 2 Present Value @ 20 CAGR (USD bn) 1.2 Value per Dish TV share (Rs.) 120
At these assumptions, The present value calculation clearly implies that, at current price (120rs) Dish TV will give us 20% compounded returns by 2011.
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Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 22/Apr/2007 at 9:19am
Originally posted by kanagala
Originally posted by basant
Good post. This would allow the stock to cool down (if at all) and then investors could take positions. |
This what i have figured out ENUM report. According to ENUM, the present value of share is 120rs.
Current subscribers as on 2006 = 0.9 mn Estimated subscribers as on 2011 with 51% CAGR = 7.1 mn
Subscribers (mn) 6 6.5 7.1 7.6 8 370 570 595 625 650 670 390 601 628 659 685 706 ARPU 410 632 660 696 721 743 Rs 430 663 692 727 756 779 450 694 724 760 791 815
By 2011, Dish TV Revenues = 696 USD mn.
Revenue in 2011 from Dish TV (USD mn) 696 EBITDA @ 24% 167 EV - @ 12X EV/ EBITDA (USD bn) ~ 2 Present Value @ 20 CAGR (USD bn) 1.2 Value per Dish TV share (Rs.) 120
At these assumptions, The present value calculation clearly implies that, at current price (120rs) Dish TV will give us 20% compounded returns by 2011.
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The share price as on 2011 = 248 Rs. So, one has to buy this around 60Rs to get a 4 baggar.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Apr/2007 at 9:23am
I saw that but brokerages are sometimes conservative in their projections. But you are right multibaggers are created by buying low!!!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: Rinku
Date Posted: 23/Apr/2007 at 9:40pm
Basantijee app sahi bol rahe the..
Dish TV drops as FIIs told to abstain from the scrip
DTH service provider Dish TV India dropped nearly 4% to Rs 105.70, after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) barred fresh FII-buying in the counter.
According to the central bank, the ceiling of 49% for such investment had already been reached in the counter.
As many as 20 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE.
Dish TV India, previously known as ASC Enterprises, got demerged from Zee Entertainment Enterprises (ZEEL) with effect from 12 February 2007, as part of the Zee group’s restructuring exercise. The stock was listed on BSE on 18 April 2007. It had settled at Rs 102.55 on BSE on 18 April 2007. The scrip had firmed up to Rs 109.75 on Friday (20 April 2007). For every 100 shares of ZEEL, shareholders were given 57.50 shares of Dish TV.
Dish TV has nearly 2 million subscribers and competes with a joint venture between Tata group and News Corp, as well as state-owned Prasar Bharti.
Dish TV commenced its operations in May 2005, by launching DTH services and was the first private Indian company to initiate DTH satellite broadcast operations in the country.
The paid-up equity capital of Dish TV India is Rs 42.82 crore. The face value per share is Re 1.
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Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 23/Apr/2007 at 10:18pm
Originally posted by Rinku
Basantijee app sahi bol rahe the..
The paid-up equity capital of Dish TV India is Rs 42.82 crore. The face value per share is Re 1. |
The number of shares are 42.83 crores. This is the other concern i have in my mind. The effect of top line might not that much pronounced on the bottom line.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 23/Apr/2007 at 10:24pm
With companies like these do not worry much about the financial numbers. They merit investment on long range business plans!!!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 23/Apr/2007 at 7:57am
Tata sky belongs to which of the Tata companies....is there a proxy way of investing in it??
------------- Warm Regards,
Kaushal
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 23/Apr/2007 at 8:29am
None that I know of.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 5:48pm
i read that dish tv is making a preference offer ahuge one and authorised capital is being raised from 73 crs to 750 crs. is this type of dilution frightening has any one studiedt he pref offer
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 5:59pm
Originally posted by tigershark
i read that dish tv is making a preference offer ahuge one and authorised capital is being raised from 73 crs to 750 crs. is this type of dilution frightening has any one studiedt he pref offer |
The board has approved subject to appropriate approvals, issue of non-cumulative non-convertible redeemable preference shares of Rs 100 each up to Rs 7.5 billion on a private placement basis to promoter group. No equity dilution so far.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 6:02pm
thks for the correct info
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 6:11pm
non-cumulative non-convertible redeemable preference shares of Rs 100 each up to Rs 7.5 billion on a private placement basis to promoter group.
__________________________________________________________
I would put this move as positive from the promoter's point of view. That is because they are not diluting equity.Generally convertible pref shares or warrants are issued. Good job Subhas Bhai!!!.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 6:58pm
Originally posted by basant
non-cumulative non-convertible redeemable preference shares of Rs 100 each up to Rs 7.5 billion on a private placement basis to promoter group.
__________________________________________________________
I would put this move as positive from the promoter's point of view. That is because they are not diluting equity.Generally convertible pref shares or warrants are issued. Good job Subhas Bhai!!!. |
He had no other option because:
1)for rights issue, the process takes nearly 5-6 months.
2)for preferential allotment of equity shares, atleast 6 months' stock exchange data is required.
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Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 10:28pm
Originally posted by basant
non-cumulative non-convertible redeemable preference shares of Rs 100 each up to Rs 7.5 billion on a private placement basis to promoter group.
__________________________________________________________
I would put this move as positive from the promoter's point of view. That is because they are not diluting equity.Generally convertible pref shares or warrants are issued. Good job Subhas Bhai!!!. |
Hi Basant sir, Do we have any section on effect of this preference shares/rights issue/FCCB on earnings and EPS?
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Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 10:34pm
Originally posted by kanagala
Hi Basant sir, Do we have any section on effect of this preference shares/rights issue/FCCB on earnings and EPS?
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I am looking for general Gnan on these preferential shares, right issues and FCCB? how these are different from shares?.
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Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 10:53pm
Basantjee,
If one has to choose between Dish Tv and WWIL which one is better in the long run and what should be the basis for that?
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/May/2007 at 12:05pm
DISH - does not need Govt. mandate for that people are putting up DIsh just like that. WWIl will need a amandate for that because unless the Govt. declares mandatory CAS people will not opt for digitized cable connection.
In US DIsh came later then cable so cable survived but here customers have a choice so cable should lag behind.
Though both concepts should do well just that I am more bullish on DTH becxause TRAI interference is less here.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 07/May/2007 at 9:23pm
Dish TV India Ltd has informed BSE that consequent to recent amendments in the regulatory guidelines, inter-alia, relating to issue of Preference Shares, it has been decided to keep in abeyance the decision relating to issue of Preference Shares and consequential authorization proposed to be sought from the members of the Company through the Extra Ordinary General Meeting of the Company to be held on May 25, 2007.
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Posted By: pramodjain
Date Posted: 07/May/2007 at 11:02pm
http://www.indiantelevision.com/headlines/y2k7/may/may74.php# - - TV's Rs 7.5 billion preference issue on hold due to regulatory issues |
|
Indiantelevision.com Team |
|
(5 Mayl 2007 9:20 pm) |
For details use link | http://www.indiantelevision.com/headlines/y2k7/may/may74.php - http://www.indiantelevision.com/headlines/y2k7/may/may74.php
How should we take this news ??
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/May/2007 at 1:45pm
The stock does not seem to be on any hold maybe it would not give everyone a chance to get in at Rs 80 and our theory of everyone not being rich at the same time stays - at least till now!!!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 6:15pm
Do you know anybody using Dish TV? How is the service (from consumer's point of view)?
In Bangalore & Mangalore, everybody who I know who is using DTH seems to be using TataSky.
When is DishTV expected to make operating/net profits?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 6:57pm
Break even is in 2009-10 but market price should be significantly higher by then. Once it achieves break even porfits would rise very fast!!!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 7:39pm
Originally posted by basant
Break even is in 2009-10 but market price should be significantly higher by then. Once it achieves break even porfits would rise very fast!!! |
In such a scenario I guess, we will find better prices to enter the stock.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 7:58pm
Originally posted by basant
Originally posted by tigershark
i do agree with yu basant, there is no hurry to buy this stock but it needs to be kept right there on our radar as i say the cheaper we buy it the higher are our returns.i wonder what SSKI would have said about dish if they had made the placement intead of enam? |
But many times we do not get the price because the whole country wants to buy it at Rs 80 so in these cases it does make sense to take an initial position and then evaluate it from there. |
This is what I had written when the price wasd around Rs 110/-
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: BULLSEYE
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 8:25pm
BASANT SIR IT IS NOT BETTER TO BUY SUN TV WHICH IS VERY MUCH FOCUSSED ON SOUTH REGION IN INDIA AND IT INCLUDES
1 DTH WHICH WILL BE SOON LAUNCHED
2 CHANNELS
3 CABLE CONNECTIONS
4 RADIO ALSO
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 8:34pm
Sun is yet to start its DTH venture and got a value of about Rs 3400 crores. Dish is there with 2 million people already at Rs 5500 crores. ALso focused players get beter discounting and that poolitical storm over SUn's head will ensure that it wil never get a good discounting though it might not affect it fundamentally.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 9:18pm
DTH is expensive for a person like me which has three TVs in a house.With CAS,we can opt for whatever channel we like to watch.
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 9:29pm
How is DTH for people living in apartment buildings ? Wouldn't it be a big hassle in terms of installation and reception ?
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Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 9:37pm
True, but with my first hand experience it is more pleasant than dealing with Hathway cable. Im my complex we have more DTH than cable but unfortunately I only see Tata Sky and not Dish.
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Posted By: BULLSEYE
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 9:49pm
sir how u got value of 3400 cr and secondly i hope there is no hidden clause like in bajaj auto that sun tv s dth belogs to maran at his personal capacity n not in sun tv
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 9:52pm
I read that figure somewhere I do not recollect the source. NO this is not insurance!!!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: us121
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 11:02pm
Recently i had been to Dubai.
What i noticed is: almost all the residencial apartment has got huge nos. of dish antennae on the roof top.
Some apartments also had additional antennae in their balconies.
just thought of sharing my observation.
------------- ABILITY will get u at d top. CHARACTER will retain u at d top
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Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 11:08pm
One advantage that cable can have over dish is that it can serve as a internet provider also. You don not need a telephone line for broadband services. Even a cable provider will be able to provide you broadband service.
Here in US some households have just cable and no telephone (have cellphones instead)..
------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch
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Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 30/May/2007 at 11:02am
I have been using DTH service from Dish TV for almost 3 months now. Some facts:
* I opted to go for DTH because cable is usually governed by Goons-n-goondas in most of the places - because before DTH, anybody who had cable monopoly in a given area would be the king. So in a way the business forced people (cable guys) to fight for territorial marks. Now who will fight with these goons if there are service interruptions/bad signals?
* Reception in case of DTH services is very good - only problem being huge scrambling (similar to what happens when u watch a old used CD) only in bad windy+rainy conditions. -- Can't help because cable has more interruptions.
* Unlike cable TV there is no channel blackouts because of non-payment of dues to broadcasters.
* Dish TV is more aggressive as compared to TataSky when in comes to offers/schemes - thereby luring more customers. But TataSky has the TATA brand advantage. Though I personally feel that TATA's are very bad when it comes to rendering services - TataTele services has been a pathetic service provider.
* Dish TV installations are through franchisees unlike TataSky who have their own men doing the installations. -- franchisees do the installations faster than the Tata guys who go on a case-by-case installations.
* Its easy to install Dish TV - just takes 1 hour. You can install in your balcony as well.
* In case of Dish if you don't pay up - the free channels are still visible, unlike tataSky wherein everything is blackout.
* In case the dish realignment is disturbed, Tata guys have to called in (again takes time) whereas any dish franchisee does the job. Either way you have pay up.
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Posted By: sanpat
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 6:59pm
I recently tried to get Tata Sky installed at my apt, I could not as there were no South East direction available in my apt to fix the dish. Apartment association does not allow to install on roof top. I also checked with Dish TV, they too need South East direction. Because of this drawback, I had to go for cable connection.
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Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 9:06pm
Originally posted by tushar
* In case of Dish if you don't pay up - the free channels are still visible, unlike tataSky wherein everything is blackout.
. |
Is it so?
Then why can I not view the free channels in my CHILD connection of DISH TV? I am using DISH TV since July 2006. Three months back I took a second Child connection and as per information from DISH customer care the monthly rental is 100.00 for second TV. So far the child connection is not connected to the link of my PARENT CONNECTION (monthly rental 300/-) I requested them to define two connections properly so that I can pay the two connections in single payment gateway system. They need to be more attentive towards customer, the work (connecting two to a single payment system) is pending and my CHILD connection is in dark. I just searched with remote and it is complete black (THE CHILD ONE) including the free channels!
------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso
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Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 9:18pm
I think Tata Sky scores much higher on customer satisfaction compared to Dish.
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Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 10:57pm
The same question that Omji arises comes in my mind too. How viable would DishTV be in middle class houses in apartments ?
BTW would DishTV be more viable to reach to villages and remote places where cables can't be drawn out?
Reading your posts about DishTV looks like over the past few days you have developed a strong conviction on DishTV.
In your view what is the probability of DishTV being highly successful as a business by multiplying its consumer base and maintaining a healthy operating margins compared to its peers? This by 2010 or so ?
------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 9:39am
Originally posted by vivekkumar_in
The same question that Omji arises comes in my mind too. How viable would DishTV be in middle class houses in apartments ?
BTW would DishTV be more viable to reach to villages and remote places where cables can't be drawn out?
Reading your posts about DishTV looks like over the past few days you have developed a strong conviction on DishTV.
In your view what is the probability of DishTV being highly successful as a business by multiplying its consumer base and maintaining a healthy operating margins compared to its peers? This by 2010 or so ?
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I think the probablity is very high. In US you have DIrect Tv at amrket cap of around Rs 100,000 crores or so. But I would still back Tv18/NW18 first because DTH gaining ground means that we are moving to transperancy in the subscription market - that means pay revenues would increase for the broadcaster.
Can't have a situationn where Dish does well and the broadcasters do not.Does not seem likely at all.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 01/Jun/2007 at 10:04pm
Numbers of shares are too many in Dish. I do not like companies with too many shares. Particularly companies which are in early days. The effect of positive surprise won't be much on bottom line.
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Posted By: vinoodpk
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 8:05pm
My first contribution to this forum.
True fundamental analysis is never complete without an indepth look into competition. Here is some food for thought as far as competition is concerned. This is an outdated article in Business Line but talks a lot about competition and temporary advantage for Tatasky and DishTv for the next one year at least!
http://www.blonnet.com/2007/02/28/stories/2007022805540500.htm - http://www.blonnet.com/2007/02/28/stories/2007022805540500.htm
As far as the pricing is concerned Rs300 is way too much and Dish will be out of reach for those poor households like mine which make up 90 % of Indian population. Given this and more competition setting in we can see a lot of pressure on pricing and margins squeezed.
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Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 8:44pm
.[/QUOTE]
So far the child connection is not connected to the link of my PARENT CONNECTION (monthly rental 300/-) [/QUOTE]
Just a continuation.
The care to me as a customer by DISK TV is now satisfactory. They have solved the problem. INR300.00 as monthly rental charge is not big enough compared to that I paid two years back in PUNE for cable (It was Rs. 360/- per connection with 2000 INR non refundable connecting charges).
We can not compare watching TV in Cable and in DISK
Considering the disturbances in local cable network systems and the type of people monitoring / taking care of them (CABLES), the enjoy of watching TV in DISK is far far better and peaceful than cable
Well I have heard TATA SKY is also there. But in my locality only once I have noticed their vehicles moving aross the street.
------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 7:22am
http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage_c_online.php?leftnm=11&bKeyFlag=IN&autono=24166 -
Tatas offload 10% in Tata Sky to Temasek (biz std)
The Tata Group has divested 10% stake in its direct-to-home (DTH) venture Tata Sky to the Singapore government's investment arm Temasek for $56 million.
A source close to the development told PTI that the deal was inked almost a month back. Temasek is likely to make a formal announcement in this regard soon. "Temasek has the option to increase its stake further to the permissible limit of 26%," the source said.
With this move, Tatas' stake in the company has come down to 70%.
Incorporated in 2004, Tata Sky started off as a 80:20 joint venture between the Tata Group and television network Star. The DTH service was launched last year.
The joint venture partners had earlier stated that the project cost for the venture would be around Rs 3,000 crore.
"Tatas have already committed huge investment and they have to make much more ton the leadership. This calls for further investment," the source pointed out.
Tata Sky has a total subscriber base of over half a million, and intends to take the number to one million by August this year.
Other than the conditional access system notified areas, Tata Sky's DTH offering is available in 4,200 towns across the country.
The competition in the DTH space is hottening up with the proposed entry of cash-rich companies like, Reliance, Bharti and Sun TV, the source said. Tata Sky is the market leader at present.
At the current rate of the growth, India would have anything between 15 to 20 million DTH subscribers in the next five to six years.
-------------------------------------
Basant jee....your views please.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 10:10am
Tata Sky with around 600,000 subscribers is valued at Rs 2200 crores and DIsh Tv with about 2 million subscribers is valued at Rs 4600 crores.
Generally private equitydeals are at a discount to listed market plays but this does not seem to be the case here!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 11:12am
so if TEMASEK values the whole business of tatasky at 26000 crs they bought 10% for 65 million usd so 100% becoms 26000 then the minimum valuation for dish tv should also be 26000 crs thats an absolute floor price but today dish is valued at 4600 crs.so the future potential for at least a 4-5 bagger from the current price remains strong in dish tv appears that as the bottomline improves and expenditure gets controlled the stock will start getting ahigher rerating till then can it be added on declines.
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 11:20am
Originally posted by tigershark
so if TEMASEK values the whole business of tatasky at 26000 crs they bought 10% for 65 million usd so 100% becoms 26000 then the minimum valuation for dish tv should also be 26000 crs thats an absolute floor price but today dish is valued at 4600 crs.so the future potential for at least a 4-5 bagger from the current price remains strong in dish tv appears that as the bottomline improves and expenditure gets controlled the stock will start getting ahigher rerating till then can it be added on declines. |
I guess, it is 2600cr.
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 13/Jun/2007 at 11:23am
Dish TV is on the verge of finalising a private equity placement. (DNA)
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Jun/2007 at 7:23am
Tata Sky offer provides 5-month free viewing (dna money)
Tata Sky Ltd, a joint venture from Tata Group and Star TV, has launched a special promotional offer '1pe3; 2pe5', providing five months of free subscription of the top-end subscription package across the country.
Complete story http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1103830 - here
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: getmanoj
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 8:07pm
Basant sir, Price of DISH TV has come down from 140 to 104.. DO you think this is good price to enter or atleast take a exposure in Dish Tv?
Manoj
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 8:38pm
If yu do not have exposure then this is a good time to buy for a longer time frame.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 9:15pm
Kotak has put a 12-month price target of Rs.125
We favor distribution segment of television media chain in light of
1) more sustainable business model (direct ownership of customer versus changing audience taste for content)
2) likely steep increase in demand for addressable systems (DTH,digital cable) from rapidly improving afforadability (higher income and lower cost of consumer premise equipment)
3) enhanced relative power of distribution versus broadcasting given rapid proliferation of channels.
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 9:23pm
Devesh,
People seem to be taking these targets quite seriously.
I guess Kotak has given this target when Dish TV was around 120-125 range.No wonder they will revise their target after 6 months.
My argument is if it was attractive at 130-135, it is very attractive at 100 and promoters have 67% stake (Promoters have max faith in this than their other businesses -(other Z businesses)
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 9:28pm
Report is released today!!!
They have given OP rating bcoz stock has come down from its high.
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 9:49pm
Originally posted by deveshkayal
Kotak has put a 12-month price target of Rs.125
We favor distribution segment of television media chain in light of
1) more sustainable business model (direct ownership of customer versus changing audience taste for content)
2) likely steep increase in demand for addressable systems (DTH,digital cable) from rapidly improving afforadability (higher income and lower cost of consumer premise equipment)
3) enhanced relative power of distribution versus broadcasting given rapid proliferation of channels. |
These guys are making contradictory reports now. On one hand Kotak Institutional says subscriptuon revenue would not increase then why on earth would anyone want to buy Dish TV and if DIsh Tv is on their recommendation list then these guys should be bullish on the broadcasting business also because their they had opined that since subscription would not take off they are negatove on broadcasting.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 12:57pm
Devesh,
Then probably I can safely say that I got it before they released it !!
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 4:17pm
I think a stock like Dish TV should be accumulated (like a SIP) rather than purchased at one go. Because till we see positive EBIDTA, we might see Dish TV yo yo-ing from Rs. 80 to Rs. 160, all in a matter of months.
If one decides to wait it out for a bottom, they will have the anxiety of missing out on a growth story - especially when they see the stock going up by 5% every few days. If one goes ahead and buys Dish TV at one go, then they will have sleepless nights - because Dish TV can go down by 5% every few days.
When an investor puts in a specific amount every month, he will be happy when the Dish TV stock price goes up, and happier when it goes down!
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 4:33pm
Originally posted by smartcat
I think a stock like Dish TV should be accumulated (like a SIP) rather than purchased at one go. Because till we see positive EBIDTA, we might see Dish TV yo yo-ing from Rs. 80 to Rs. 160, all in a matter of months.
If one decides to wait it out for a bottom, they will have the anxiety of missing out on a growth story - especially when they see the stock going up by 5% every few days. If one goes ahead and buys Dish TV at one go, then they will have sleepless nights - because Dish TV can go down by 5% every few days.
When an investor puts in a specific amount every month, he will be happy when the Dish TV stock price goes up, and happier when it goes down! |
ABSOLUTELY
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Posted By: vijinat
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 8:15pm
[QUOTE=smartcat]I think a stock like Dish TV should be accumulated (like a SIP) rather than purchased at one go. Because till we see positive EBIDTA, we might see Dish TV yo yo-ing from Rs. 80 to Rs. 160, all in a matter of months.
If one decides to wait it out for a bottom, they will have the anxiety of missing out on a growth story - especially when they see the stock going up by 5% every few days. If one goes ahead and buys Dish TV at one go, then they will have sleepless nights - because Dish TV can go down by 5% every few days.
When an investor puts in a specific amount every month, he will be happy when the Dish TV stock price goes up, and happier when it goes down! Great . Can apply this to many investment stories brought out by TEDDIES also.As many of us are not big investors, (because someone recently ridiculed the phrase 'small investor ), the investment in instalments is quite appealing.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 8:35pm
Every big investor was at one point in time a small investor.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 9:32pm
now this is one hell of a smart cat! good advice keep it up
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: SORUB
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 10:01pm
value cost averaging also can be implimented to accumulate
------------- K.I.S.S(keep it simple silly) is the most easy management formula i ever came across!!! but it is very hard to follow!!!
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Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 1:09am
i think it is also important for an investor to buy when evryone else is selling coz of short term hiccups.. but for that we need to have conviction which is not easy to develop when u see other stocks flying around the stock u have invested in...chota mu badi bat..that is what i believe in
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Posted By: kvinodhan
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 10:07am
Sir...Dont u think it is more prudent to wait and watch for stocks like Dish TV...since as u mentioned one has to be patient andd pick it at much lower levels when the market falls....we can get it at much cheaper levels and with so many traders eyeing the stock the price seems to be a bit high at these levels
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 10:21am
WHile your assesement is correct sonetimes this waiting game proves very costly so the prudent thing would be to just buy a bit every now and then so that we average out our purchase. In the long run this company should do exceedingly well.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 12:09pm
Psychologically, waiting for a stock to fall can be nerve wracking too, especially if you really like the business. There is always a lingering feeling at the back of your mind that - hey, maybe this stock will never down to Rs. 80. Let me buy it now before it goes to Rs. 200.
value cost averaging also can be implimented to accumulate |
This is a better idea if implemented correctly. Decide on a stock price at which Dish TV really makes sense for you, say Rs. 120. If the stock price is over Rs. 120, invest a lower amount every month (say Rs. 5,000). If it is less than Rs. 120, invest a higher amount every month (say Rs. 10,000)
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Posted By: muralimohan001
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2007 at 4:34am
I tried to get Dish connection here(US, Pennsylvania state) but couldn't get connection. Here one has to have a balcony(or open place) in either south or west side to set mini dish to point in the SOUTH-WEST DIRECTION. I have balcony in east side, so I couldn’t get connection.
I have seen some other relatives and friends, they also couldn't get the connection with the same reason.
In this way dish tv is loosing business. Because of this south-west problem , many people are still using cable.
Do we have any similar problems in INDIA? If there is problem also, can the stock become a multibagger?
------------- If money is your hope for independence, you will never have it. The
only real security that a man can have in this world is a reserve of
knowledge, experience and ability.
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