India Bulls - Property and Brokerage
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
Forum Discription: These are companies operating in growing markets having have certain niches or specific attributes like new sector plays. These are emerging multibaggers with high risks and high rewards.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=577
Printed Date: 19/Apr/2025 at 9:22pm
Topic: India Bulls - Property and Brokerage
Posted By: basant
Subject: India Bulls - Property and Brokerage
Date Posted: 14/Aug/2006 at 4:55pm
This topic was started prior to the demerger of Indiabulls
Brokerages trade at market caps of billions across the world. Putting the same analogy one could look at Geojit, Indiabulls, Indiainfoline - in order of preference.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Replies:
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 14/Sep/2006 at 1:08pm
What is your views on demerger of Indiabulls and management capabilty of venturing into new are and making weath for shareholders. I was surprised to notice that indiabulls case study was not there in demerger/spinoff section
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Hi , Thanks for yourr message. India bulls could become a big story. There are a few pure brokerages listed in India and http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=121&KW=GLOBALLY&PN=1 - Whatever happened Globally will happen in India. More over the spin off of the real estate venture shall add to the stock price. Guess we did discuss this earlier but very briefly.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 03/Nov/2006 at 12:36pm
very valid point vishal.....Bsantji isnt Indiabulls a specualtive build up in this Finance sector...
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2006 at 9:19am
Vipulji. You have been a big IndiaBulls bull (Rs 285 at that time) ever since we started this forum. Can you elaborate to us the concept/details on the future course of action.This is another of the classic spin off cases.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2006 at 9:45am
The Demerger of the Real Estate arm is the start of Value creation in India Bulls . Laxmi Mittal is also invested in one of its subsidaries.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2006 at 10:04am
Indiabulls (IBFL) is holding entity for it's operating companies in different businesses/sectors. Some of them are real estate, securities, consumer loans, mmortgage loans, commodities and oil&gas.
IBFL has rich valuation and probably over valued from every angle. so, I advise reader to take caution before making any decision. It is high risk bet now. One should refrain from here unless you are looking for long term. Near term stability may be there due to short term trigger (demerger) but in general, only lion hearted ppl can hold this.
This is my second recommendation after YES Bank. IBFL and YB have opposite face. YB is of a more fundamental play whereas IBFL is more of fancy play. Here I try to explain insight of IBFL...
IBFL as I said is holding entity. I boosts name of LN Mittals and Sovereign Global apart from Farallon capital and FIIs (like goldman, deushe, JP and all that). Mittal put money when it was private company at 6 rupees. He is the one who generally don't money in other sectors. Story of Sovereign Global is now known to everybody. they put 11% of FI in entire 2005. A big and influencial company. Best part is that most of these ppl have not purchased from secondary markets whereas their holding is from preferential allotments. This makes us believe who much trust they have in the IBFL.
With preferential allotment, company make a definite commitment whereas from purchase from secondary market does not have any such bearings. Bidding for UWB was interesting bit of intention.
I will come to each of these operating businesses later as forum grows.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2006 at 10:37am
CLSA has predicted 40000 target for Sensex over long term and it is realistic as they say.If it really touches that indiabulls will benefit but competition is heating up as Reliance Money is offering at lower rates as reported in ET.Reliance can incur losses over 1-2 years as they had donce in RCL
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 13/Nov/2006 at 5:07am
IBFL has following operating businesses ..
1. Securities
In this biz, IBFL is among the largest domestic players. This biz is closely related to stock/commodity markets. Assuming Indian market will be highly voletile market for times to come, I assume profits will only florish from here. It is good, strong and fundamental business of the group. I assume, they would like to own majority of this, as this is cash cow for all other forays. So talk of sale to ADA group will definately be rumor. May be times to come, they will opt for stategic foreign investor like goldman, waterhouse etc. But they would like to control this as long as they can. This is strong, growing biz. Expect exponential rise in EPS (as it has been so far).
2. Financial Services
I like this most. This consists of consumer loans, mortgages and credit card. There is good future for this biz anf like securities, this will grow exponentially. By no way they are tiny players in this sector. Last quater, they distributed loans worth 500 Cr. Assuming they have just 33 offices, this is not a bad start. Assuming they have 200 offices by 2008 and with some extrapolation, we can say by 2008 they will distribute loans worth 3000 Cr per quater (this is a approx figure). They have advantage over PSU banks as they have dedicated offices only for loans.
All along, I used to think that this biz is operational from same (securities) offices, but I was wrong. They have different offices for securies, consumer and morgages biz, as profile of visiters are different.
Recently IBFL, told that they are now thinking of resctrucuring this biz aswell. They said it may be demerger but nothing is decided, we are in thinking process.
It is very good business to own. I have a strong feeling that this will also be demergerd because they have direct investors in this operating companies (unlike securities biz). Guys will put money in operating business when they think of hiving this at later stage.
3. Real estate
Nothing to say really. All is publically known by now. It is free gift for ppl how picked IBFL at around 190 at as recent as May/June. Those ppl are wealthy by their karma.
4. Oil&Gas
They had bid for CMB 3. Very few ppl know about this. But one can see DGH website and cross check. But sad part is that they were not allocated any block. So I assume investment in this biz is loss unless something big comes. As LNM is sitting for IBFL, there is quite a changes that something big will come under this biz aswell.
Now come to biggest oppertunity. That is owning a Bank. IBFL promotors have intention to own a bank post 2009. Bid for UWB was a small step under this. I am sure one day, they will buy a bank from it's consumer finance biz. If that happens, it will be biggest move by promotors of IBFL.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 14/Nov/2006 at 3:55pm
Very well analysed. Hats off to u
------------- Vishal
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Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 9:51am
Could anyone tell me that the Indiabulls restate share what we are going to get after Indiabulls financial services demerger, what will be the face valyue of it?
------------- Vishal
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 20/Nov/2006 at 7:25am
Potential of home loan ...
I saw SK statistics ..
People in SK will pay 42 B USD interests on homeloan this year. Can one sense how big home loan/mortgage biz can grow in India.
Second part is oviously reals-estate potential. One can find both at one place.
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200611/kt2006112017202610220.htm - http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200611/kt2006112017202610220.htm
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 26/Nov/2006 at 4:49am
IBFL promotor has mentioned that demerger will happen in Q3. As dates are within 1 month, I advise ppl to hold it. Fresh buying may not be fruitfull, as it has climbed alot. It will not participate in any correction due to this near-term exicement.
I guess caseis pending in Highcourt and we all know how it works. Patience will pay for one.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 30/Nov/2006 at 5:32am
Investment in Indiabulls Infrastructure Development by old buddies LN Mittal and Farallon Capital ensures high valuations for IBFL. As per deal IIDL values at 3352.5 Cr. Remember insider people will pay discount to actual valuation as they already sit in the board. Being non listed entity there is no SEBi rules for preferancial allotment. So if they are paying INR 437 per share, it means acual value (for outsiders) is well above this.
I have been positively surprised by managment. First Ilike thier holding pattern, inspite of being holding comapny they keep on getting excellent valuations. Venturing into unrelated fields has been rewarding for minority shareholders (unlike in many other cases). Right now IBFL has following holding business .. real estate, brokarage, consumer finance and morgage.
Real estate constists of IBRL and IIDL (may be few more). IIDL itself valued at 3352.5 Cr. IBRL has 2 mumbai, sonipat and delhi properties. Valuations of these properties are well above 2000 Cr. Also I am sure they are also looking for more. So total valae of Real estate busines is 3352.5 + 2000 = 5352.5 Cr. (on conservative basis).
Comparing current valuations of IBFL (marketcap of 9000 Cr). It means other 3 business are valued at 9000 - 5352.5 = 3647.5 Cr. Which is well below actual valuations. Fair valuation for these 3 business are 6000 - 7000 Cr. So there is scope of 7000 -3647.5 = 3352.5 Cr market cap. Which translates into upside of 200 INR from current level.
Here all valuations are conservatively calculated. Also it does not include any potential possibility of new ventures.
Happy holding....
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 06/Dec/2006 at 7:24am
Indiabulls Financial Services received the order from Delhi high court approving the demerger of real estate business of the company to Indiabulls Real Estate. Pursaunt to the scheme of de-merger, each shareholder of the transferor company will be entitled to one share in the demerged company. Indiabulls Real Estate would hold the various real estate companies of Indiabulls as its majority owned subsidiaries. The shares ownership of Indiabulls Financial Services in its real estate companies would be demerged to Indiabulls Real Estate.
Upon demerger, Indiabulls Real Estate will be one of the largest listed real estate companies. The companies development activities are focused on tier 1 cities and the company has a significant position in Mumbai where it is developing 19 acres of mill lands that it had bought in NTC auction last year for Rs 7.18 billion. The company is also developing 36 acres of land in South Delhi that it had bought in DDA auction for Rs 4.51 billion in partnership with DLF.
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Please don't buy it in lots, leave something for post-demerger. 
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: anurag
Date Posted: 07/Dec/2006 at 1:59pm
Try Out Allianz Securities....
pick of the week (ICICIDIRECT) |
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Allianz Securities Ltd.(ALLSEC) |
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Background
Allianz Securities is a 12-year-old investment bank of repute with extensive expertise in investment banking, corporate finance & restructuring and fixed income product & service offerings. Allianz Securities is Sebi-approved Category-I Merchant Banker, underwriter and portfolio manager. The company also undertakes distribution of financial instruments like mutual funds, bonds, insurance, etc. It has an active network of associate/sub broker of 3500 spread across India. Very recently, through its subsidiaries Almondz, it forayed into equity and commodity broking. The promoters hold 44.7% equity of the company.
Investment Rationale
Established player in equity market Allianz Securities was ranked 16th among private investment bankers in issue management for period April-2005 - March 2006. It offers the entire gamut of merchant banking services ranging from IPO issuances, private placement, fund syndication and M&A deals. Among its assignments were the public issue of Jai Prakash Hydro, public issue of GIPCO, public issue of FCS Software and public issue of Gayatri Projects. It also handled the rights issue of Mawana Sugars, Gujarat Alkalies, Spicejet, etc. >
Active in debt market The company is very active in the debt market. It has been associated with borrowing of over Rs 50,000 crore (US$ 11 billion) representing almost a fifth of the funds mobilized in the domestic debt market. It has strong client base comprising of provident funds, pension funds, mutual funds banks, insurance companies, etc. It has seen a steady rise in fixed income mobilization from Rs 6,900 crore or 46 issues in FY02 to Rs 19,800 crore or 52 issues in FY06.
Rapid strides in distribution business Allianz has a network of 17 branches and 3,500 empanelled brokers/sub-brokers. It has made rapid strides in the distribution business and is active in insurance, mutual funds, bonds, etc. Distribution income has been gaining strength, rising from Rs 10.6 crore in FY05 to Rs 24.8 crore in FY06 and contributing almost 50% of revenues in FY06. Considering an average yield of 2%, Allianz Securities distributed Rs 1,200-1,300 crore worth of financial instruments.
Foray into broking To expand its product offering and increase revenue stream, Allianz has ventured in the broking business (equities and commodities) through its wholly-owned subsidiary ‘Almondz Capital Market’. Company will initially service institutional clients. Thereafter, it aims to venture in the retail space. With its entry into the broking business, Allianz Securities has become a complete financial boutique offering a wide gamut of services.
Outlook
Strong macro economic factors, rising industry confidence and growing investment capex creates a healthy environment for merchant bankers like Allianz Securities. We are witnessing a healthy business environment where appetite to raise funds through the equity and debt issue has risen manifolds and players like Allianz Securities are citing huge business opportunity. The company has a rich pipeline with almost Rs 600-700 crore of IPOs where it is mandated as a Book Running & Lead Manager. Equivalent amount of mandates are under execution in the private placement and M&A space. We maintain a positive outlook on business in coming quarters.
We believe that, Company is amongst a handful of financial boutique offering full range of financial products and revenue size in excess of Rs 50 Crore. |
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Quarter ended |
Year ended |
Rs. cr |
year |
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2006/09 |
2005/09 |
var % |
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2006/03 |
2005/03 |
var % |
Sales Income |
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11.65 |
11.31 |
3.00 |
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52.94 |
30.01 |
76.43 |
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Other Income |
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0.07 |
0.04 |
84.21 |
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0.35 |
2.65 |
-86.87 |
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Expenditure |
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7.93 |
7.22 |
9.83 |
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35.94 |
23.57 |
52.48 |
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Interest |
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0.40 |
0.83 |
-52.40 |
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2.61 |
2.16 |
20.58 |
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Gross Profit |
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3.40 |
3.30 |
2.97 |
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14.74 |
6.93 |
112.82 |
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Depreciation |
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0.09 |
0.07 |
36.36 |
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0.34 |
0.17 |
100.59 |
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Tax |
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1.05 |
1.14 |
-8.15 |
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5.18 |
2.41 |
114.59 |
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PAT |
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2.26 |
2.09 |
7.98 |
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9.23 |
4.35 |
112.31 |
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Equity |
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9.60 |
6.37 |
50.72 |
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7.81 |
6.37 |
22.61 |
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OPM (%) |
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31.93 |
36.16 |
-4.23 |
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32.11 |
21.46 |
10.65 |
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GPM (%) |
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28.50 |
28.82 |
-0.32 |
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27.18 |
14.26 |
12.92 |
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NPM (%) |
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19.40 |
18.50 |
0.90 |
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17.42 |
14.48 |
2.94 |
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Key Financial Ratios |
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2005/03 |
2004/03 |
2003/03 |
2002/03 |
2001/03 |
EPS |
4.26 |
1.84 |
0.77 |
0.22 |
0.07 |
CEPS |
4.46 |
1.97 |
0.89 |
0.32 |
0.17 |
Book Value |
14.42 |
10.63 |
8.08 |
6.24 |
5.45 |
Dividend/Share |
1.50 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
OPM |
27.64 |
15.59 |
14.72 |
8.55 |
3.69 |
RONW |
39.61 |
22.54 |
16.94 |
6.94 |
1.68 |
Debt/Equity |
1.74 |
3.33 |
0.31 |
0.10 |
0.03 |
Ratio |
4.62 |
5.02 |
5.10 |
6.24 |
5.50 |
Interest Cover |
4.22 |
6.92 |
34.07 |
169.96 |
6.92 |
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Financials: |
Sales grew by 62% in FY06 to Rs 52.9 crore from Rs 32.5 in FY05. Net profit grew at faster pace at 104% to Rs 9.2 crore from Rs 4.5 crore during the same period. For the first half of FY07, the company reported a net profit of Rs 3.93 crore on sales of Rs 20.7 crore. |
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Valuation
Considering the recent deals in the broking and merchant banking business, we have valued Allianz Securities on a market cap to sales basis. India Infoline trades at 5.2x FY06 sales. Motilal Oswal clinched an equity deal with investors at 10x FY06 sales and SSKI was valued at 3s FY06 sales in recent deal. Considering that 50% of Allianz Securities’ business is earned through distribution of financial instruments, we value the company at 2.1x FY06 sales, translating into a value of Rs 128 crore or Rs 70 per share. The same should also be seen in light of 3.8% dividend yield (Rs 1.5 dividend last year) and more steady debt broking business with clients like provident funds, pension funds, mutual funds banks and insurance companies. |
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Bulk Deals in last few days:
04-Dec-2006 |
Allianz Sec (BSE) |
Icici International Limit |
Buy |
500000 |
49.90 |
49.75 |
01-Dec-2006 |
Allianz Sec (BSE) |
Hsbc Financial Services M |
Buy |
500000 |
48.00 |
49.00 |
30-Nov-2006 |
Allianz Sec (BSE) |
Accord Capital Markets Lt |
Buy |
239578 |
45.86 |
46.50 |
30-Nov-2006 |
Allianz Sec (BSE) |
Jmp Securities Pvt. Ltd. |
Buy |
84447 |
45.00 |
46.50 |
30-Nov-2006 |
Allianz Sec (BSE) |
Prism Impex Pvt Ltd |
Buy |
100000 |
44.90 |
46.50 |
29-Nov-2006 |
Allianz Sec (BSE) |
Rajasthan Global Sec Ltd |
Sell |
1500000 |
33.00 |
39.80 | |
Take your call!!
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 11/Dec/2006 at 11:54am
Today I had deeper look at valuation of IBFL. It goes like this ...
1. Indiabulls Credit services (engaged into consumer loans) 52% of 3000 Cr = 1500
2. Indiabulls home finance (engaged into home mortgage) 66% of 1000 Cr = 660 Cr
3. Indiabulls Infra Devep (engaged into large infrastructure projects) 87%of 3500 Cr = 3010
4. Indiabulls Real estate (engaged into residential and commercial projects) 2000 * 50% = 1000. For this I have no confirmation on valuation. All other values, I got from bse announcements. I remember analyst saying 3000-4000 Cr when they picked Mumbai properties.
5. Indiabulls Sec (engaged into stock brokerage biz). No idea but it is 100% subs of IBFL. Assuming 3000-4000 Cr
6. Indiabulls commodities (engaged into commodities brokerage biz). No idea but it is 100% subs of IBFL. Assuming 400-600Cr.
Sum of the parts are 1500 + 660 + 3010 + 1000 + 3000 + 400 = 9570 Cr.
On face it looks like valuation is at par with market price but remember some of these valuations are old and by now value in home, consumer fin, real estate would have increased a bit. Also I am not aware of any other line of businesses, IBFL is thinking/investing of. Above valuation is from operating companies. One can add some value (200 -300 Cr) in holding company as well.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: RAKESH
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2006 at 2:30pm
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2006 at 2:33pm
sorry!! I don't advise (for free ) .
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 19/Dec/2006 at 6:59am
Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd has acquired 100% of the equity share capital of Noble Realtors Pvt Ltd ("Noble Realtors"). Noble Realtors is engaged in the business of construction and development of real estate projects.
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It should be interesting deal. Lets wait to see what it owns. I assume this will be transfered to Indiabulls real estate company. Which is about to demerge from parent.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2006 at 10:34am
Looks like I am the lone warrier here. Anyway Just see this announcement from BSE...
Pursuant to the Scheme, the real estate business of the Company has been demerged to Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd. Some of the real estate assets that would be a part of Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd have been valued by Knight Frank, a leading international real estate consultancy Company. Knight Frank has estimated the present value of 100% of the six development projects at Rs 215,690 million. The total present value of Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd's effective ownership in the project Companies undertaking the proposed developments is Rs 151,250 million.
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On equity capital of 3399.7 million, Book value comes out to be 446 INR per share. Basant jee can you derive listing value based on some real estate/land bank parameter ?
Unititech's similer value is 621 INR (sharekhan report) and it is outperformer rated. It's 52-week high was 13% discount to this value. Assuming same for Indiabulls it's 52 week hight could be 388 INR.
NOTE: It does not include any land bank from purchase of Noble realestate pvt. Ltd.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Dec/2006 at 10:58am
I was astonished to see that value. From what I read on Tv and here shareholders of India Bulls do look like a winner here and that too quite significantly.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: shahji
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2006 at 8:53pm
Basantji which is better to invest for long term Geojit or IndiaBulls
------------- A investor who wants to grow.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2006 at 9:11pm
India Bulls is what I would suggest especially in the backdrop of its real estate valuation also it is a pan India player. Geojit is a regional player but Vipulji is the best person to advise whether or not buy IndiaBulls at this time.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2006 at 10:14pm
Is IndiaBulls ex benefits or cum benefits ?
I thought by seeing NSE/BSE announcements ... that the real estate business is already demerged and we wont get real estate stock if we had bought the IBFS stock today !
Then why has stock gone 10 percent up ???
Cheers,
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2006 at 10:26pm
Demerger is in Jan so it carries the real estate biz and you would get it if you buy today.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2006 at 11:02pm
Basantji, then what does following mean ?
1. Effective Date for scheme of demerger
Upon satisfaction of the conditions precedent to effectiveness of the scheme of arrangement (Scheme) between the Company and Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd (IBREL) under Sections 391-394 of the Companies Act, 1956, in terms thereof, the Board of Directors of the Company has taken on record December 20, 2006 as the 'Effective Date' for the Scheme.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2006 at 11:10pm
This means demerger date is gone but I saw on Tv that they set jan 9 as the date for demerger maybe that is the record date and the company has gone into no delivery. I am not sure really.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2006 at 11:20pm
if its ex-real estate stock then y was it up 10% even though its ex-real estate stock ?
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2006 at 5:27am
well!! I have little new to say now. I did breakup analysis long before this event. As member know that I am not very bullish in real estate at current valuations. I picked Indiabulls due to financial operations. Broking and real estate is side benefits.
If one is bullish on financial, then IBFL offers great benefits. IREL will have very high quality management. It will be run not by Indiabulls promoters but by Fallathon, which has more than 50% stake. It will have biggest vision among sector companies. One day mortgage and consumer finance business will be demergerd and it will be run by LNM and Fallathon guys.
I envisage some new business from IBFL very soon as they collected huge money from recent preferential allotments.
All in all, IBFL is like a multi-serving dinner. First dish on the table and many more to come.
But weak heart, please take u turn.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 21/Dec/2006 at 9:29am
Agree with you VIPUL, one should buy Indiabulls for its core business the rest is a bonus.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 26/Dec/2006 at 1:53pm
Excerpt from Head of Research at Ambit Capital ....
IBFL values 690 to be precise, 335 is coming from the brokerage plus the retail loan space because retail loan space is growing at a very rapid pace and what we have looked at the scenario is close to 5000 crore by 2009, which has recently started. Capital is not going to be a constraint, if you look at the debt equity of the company, it is extremely low, it is less than one. So 335 for the financial business and another 355 is for real estate business out of which 180 is coming from the SEZ and the rest is from the Mumbai properties. Another factor is the financial services, which itself is moving at a rapid pace, plus the margins are very high, in fact in the range of the yields in the range of 22-30% in the retail loan space.
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Remember When RIL was demerged they valued sum of parts to 950 or so. Now after 1 year, it valued at 1200 + 450 + x + y + 20 = 1670 +x + y + z (or so). What I am trying to say is analyst are generally conservative on such issues. I am waiting for sharekhan report on such issue (if any). Going forward I see IREL being top sector pick for FIIs as ppl have seen wealth creation at IBFL. There will be competition of prices between IBSL and IREL.
But best piece is yet to fork-out. It is loan/mortgage business. I foresee some FII (may be Goldman sacs) controlling broking business near medium term. I am also keen to see next unrelated move.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Dec/2006 at 2:57pm
Vipuluji you are absolutely bang on. ALso brokerages never set targets that are 50% away from the current price they keep increasing it gradually. I have personally followed so many companies that by the time you realise the stock has been a 5 bagger with around 10 targets in between - all upgrades. God knows why they don't take a long term view and say Ok X at Rs 100 can go to Rs 500 in 3 years. Instead they would keep raising the target each quarter.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 26/Dec/2006 at 4:53am
Basant jee,
Thanks for seconding me. Most of those analyst think from short-term perspective and mostly they are very conservative for multi-baggers. They don't have conviction for the stock. They view a company from share point of which includes data, chart and macro. Unless they reach into micro level they can't give us long term views. We theequitydesk ppl go deep into company operation and then we get conviction etc. But today I got some long-term hold analyst advice from moneycontrol.com. Let's see..
Long ago I stooped acting on other's advice because I can buy on that but then how will I get conviction. So conviction is first, buy, sell and hold is all second. I hope all are making wealth while our bullu is on the march. 
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2007 at 5:41am
IBFL closed at 660 on BSE. I guess post demerger, IBFL will stabilize around 300-350 whereas IREL at around 400-450 in 3-4 months of time. Main driver in IBFL will remain mortgage, consumer loan whereas new addition of property and price-realization of existing/under construction structures will remain growth driver for IREL.
IREL will regain top sector picks from FII, retails as it is targeting rent-based income rather than vanilla flavor housing complexes.
Demerger process has created wealth for all investors and I hope this will strengthen from here on wards.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2007 at 3:12am
I am extremely bullish on Indiabull story since its IPO days and this is one stk which I have traded frequently from the beginning. I think now its time to think big on this company , a terrrific performer and very capable management. Basantji, Could you also spend some time on this one and give your analysis?
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2007 at 11:01am
IBFL is already sitting at second place from top in 'TED report card'. If I do demerger calculation (like Basant jee did for tv18), it's combined value is 300 + 450 = 750. It means 163% rise. Top slot. from first day of '07. Let see how it goes from here ..
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2007 at 11:09am
Congrats Vipul...you seems to have made a ton on that one. Now time for that TV18 Bottle of Champane for the celebration, or is it a still too early to celebrate. 
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2007 at 11:20am
Demerger of RIL, KMB, GE were one-off events. Can you guess ???
There, brothers wanted their pie etc. Whereas demerger form IBFL was well planned event and planning in what we believe.
I see no reasons to believe no-more demergers from IBFL from now on wards. IBFL is golden goose who layes golden egg (wo story)...
<wanna eat 10 egg omelet>  . You ??
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2007 at 11:29am
Vipul - A pure Veg here... ...No Omlets atleast for me.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2007 at 4:41am
Well!! Promoters are buying from open market. This is sign of undervaluation. Also consistently Goldman Sachs is making inroads in IBFL. Now they own close to 1 Cr shares. Generally single FIIs don't own such in large percentage unless they have long term or strategic plan. Don't forget Goldman Sachs is looking to start share broking business in India.
Promoter's purchases shows sign of confidence and under-valuation. As they promised to start a new venture, I am keen to listen..
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2007 at 12:23pm
Hi,
I seem to have missed all the action in India Bulls pre-demerger.
Is IBFL a good investment from its stand point today ?
I am all enthused with the potential of India Bulls considering we are
in a long term bull market...and seeing where brokerage companies are
valued in other economies..
What is your optimistic scenario for IBFL going forward say 2010 or 2011... How big can it get ?
Regards,
Vivek
------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2007 at 3:55am
Vivek, just readout this thread from begining. I have nothing new to write as of now.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2007 at 5:05am
If Govt puts ban on new SEZ approval, then it is very good news for IREL. Can anybody who took home-lone from indiabulls share his/her experience with members ?
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2007 at 8:32am
Vipulji: IndiaBulls does not give home loans but loan to speculate on stocks and I am sure no one would have a good experience but the best part is no one would stop taking that loan also.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2007 at 9:07am
Vipulji: IndiaBulls does not give home loans
------------
Basant jee, Indiabulls has home-loan and consumer-loan portfolio. This piece of business is co-owned with LN Mittal and loan portfolio is growing exponentially. I liked this piece since beginning.
http://www.indiabulls.com - www.indiabulls.com will explain all 4 businesses.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 2:48pm
For all IREL shareholders ...
http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIaNID=44779 - http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIaNID=44779
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 5:48am
If market grapewine is to believe IREL is listing on 12 Feb.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 9:16am
I sent a query yesterday to IndiaBulls of listing of IREL got back reply in
8 Minutes
Dear Investor,
“Pursuant to the scheme of arrangement between Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (IBFSL) and Indiabulls Real Estate Limited (IBREL) approved by the Hon’ble High Court of Delhi, the shareholders of IBFSL would be entitled to those many shares of IBREL as they hold in the former Company on the record date i.e. 9th January, 2007. IBREL is making necessary applications to the Stock Exchanges and Securities and Exchange Board of India for allotment and listing of these shares. On receipt of listing approval the shares of IBREL would be credited to the demat accounts of the shareholder forthwith. The entire legal process is expected to be completed by the end of the third week of February, 2007.
Thanks & Regards
Amit Jain
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Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 9:32am
"Indiabulls to hive off Consumer finance Business"ET today.
There will be 3 Companies in Brokerage, Real Estate and Consumer finance.
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 9:42am
Although I made this use-case quite a way back but looks like rumor as of now until I hear from management.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 10:12am
Originally posted by vip1
I sent a query yesterday to IndiaBulls of listing of IREL got back reply in
8 Minutes
Dear Investor,
“Pursuant to the scheme of arrangement between Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (IBFSL) and Indiabulls Real Estate Limited (IBREL) approved by the Hon’ble High Court of Delhi, the shareholders of IBFSL would be entitled to those many shares of IBREL as they hold in the former Company on the record date i.e. 9th January, 2007. IBREL is making necessary applications to the Stock Exchanges and Securities and Exchange Board of India for allotment and listing of these shares. On receipt of listing approval the shares of IBREL would be credited to the demat accounts of the shareholder forthwith. The entire legal process is expected to be completed by the end of the third week of February, 2007.
Thanks & Regards
Amit Jain |
Good companies always respond back fast - as long as the querries are genuine.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 29/Jan/2007 at 5:03am
Despite compelling reasons, I don't think ppl are convinced about indiabulls. It finished second in report card ending 2006. Unlike Yes Bank where OmShivaji also started tracking, I seems to be lone solder.
Anyway, recently Dev Property Development fund raised 1,055 Cr for investing in IREL projects. Also it picked minority stake in various real-estate companies. Insider says that LN Mittal, CLSA, Goldman Sacs have invested in Dev Property fund. In past LN Mittal told the funds will not be problem for IREL if projects are appealing.
Sum of all these sporadic news is like this ... IREL is going to become top 3 real-estate company in India. Which will have no fund problems. Where FII and FDI will sit in the board and share their international experience. IREL has sold stakes at much premium even in initial days (unlike IBFL, on which FIIs were not convinced, LN Mittal took it's stake at 6 INR).
It is very rare event where mcap of demerged entity is higher than parent.
I have being regretting since I left IBFSL at 170 in May'06 fall.
But best things are yet to happen. Remember Consumer finance business will pick-up a troublesome bank and demerger of these financial or broking business is also a clear possibility. IBFSL is clear example of sum-of-parts. Not many companies fetch this privilege from markets.
Also, anytime IBSL could be pregnant with new unrelated business, which they mentioned in last year report. 
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 29/Jan/2007 at 8:08am
Yes, Vipulji most of us are really shocked (amazed) by the rise of this company. Though I invest in a very concentrated manner any investor who takes time to think before investing sees the stock rise by another 15% so he is left..... thinking.....
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 29/Jan/2007 at 8:55am
Despite compelling reasons, I don't think ppl are convinced about indiabulls. It finished second in report card ending 2006. Unlike Yes Bank where OmShivaji also started tracking, I seems to be lone solder.
Vipul , from my post above clearly shows you are not alone.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 29/Jan/2007 at 9:11am
so dear vipul should one add more tomorrow.yes what yu say makes great sense and it was bcos of your posts i did pick up indiabulls 2 months back i hope you could help with the investing descion
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 30/Jan/2007 at 9:12am
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/financeinvestments/indiabullsfinancialservices/09/05/pricechartquote/marketprice/IFS03 - Indiabulls Financial Services has announced its third quarter results of FY07. Its Q3 net profit increased to Rs 111.76 crore (Rs 1.11 billion) as against Rs 71.69 crore (Rs 716.9 million) in the corresponding quarter of the previous period.
< ="http://202.87.40.52/promos/sponsor_news.js">
Its revenues was up at Rs 334.53 crore (Rs 3.34 billion) versus Rs 164.37 crore (Rs 1.64 billion) in the same period of last year.
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Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 30/Jan/2007 at 9:19am
Source: NSE - Indiabulls Financial Services Limited has informed the Exchange that "Indiabulls Real Estate Limited ("IREL" or the "Company"), is proposing to enter into arrangements with Dev Property Development Plc., a company incorporated in the Isle of Man ("Dev"), whereby Dev shall subscribe to new shares and also acquire a minority shareholding from the Company, in the following project companies: a) Indiabulls Properties Private Limited ("IPPL") - which is developing Jupiter Mills; b) Indiabulls Real Estate Company Private Limited (IRECPL") - which is developing Elphinstone Mills; and c) Indiabulls Infrastructure Development Limited ("IIDL") - which is developing the Raigad SEZ. The Company has now informed the Exchange that "the Company has entered into share purchase and subscription agreements as well as shareholders' agreements in relation to the above and Dev will acquire a manority shareholding in the project companies as mentioned above upon completion of all closing conditions. As part of the series of transactions, upon completion IREL will receive a total consideration of Rs. 437.4 crore for sale of partial stake in IPPL and IRECPL. Additionally, IPPL, IRECPL, and IIDL will receive a total of Rs. 617.9 crore as fresh equity capital from subsidiaries of Dev. Further, Dev has completed an initial public offering of its Ordinary shares for a total amount of Rs. 1200 crore (GBP 138 million) and shall be listed on the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange Plc. The transaction is expected to close during the course of next week". Date: 2007-01-29
There 3 companies IIDL,IPPL and IRECPL , would there be any further demerger ? Views invited?
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2007 at 12:04pm
2 Indiabulls silent army.
Interesting observation .... From this Q, profit from financial surpassed broking profit. A very positive sign. This will stabilize Q2Q growth where broking will continue to provide essential kicker.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 04/Feb/2007 at 5:37am
Hold-on guys. We are bang-on-target... read on and N'joy...After seeing this report I feel that market had prior knowledge ...
Indiabulls is restructuring ...  Let's see what management says .. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India_Business/Indiabulls_set_for_revamp/articleshow/msid-1560581,curpg-1.cms - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India_Business/Indiabulls_set_for_revamp/articleshow/msid-1560581,curpg-1.cms
Best part is LN Mittal's continuing romance  with Indiabulls. Ready to take off 52-week high of 699.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Feb/2007 at 8:31am
Bloom, Boom and Dhoom!!!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 04/Feb/2007 at 8:44am
not many poeple know that india bulls is turning out to be an ln mittal co once the am admi comes to know then it appears that the real estate div will be more than free for investors to climbed on early
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 04/Feb/2007 at 8:58am
Looks like news is official ( I have not seen it yet), CNBC guys discussed it in morning and our neutral Udyan made case for 40-50 upside.
I am quite biased so disagree with him. Guys remember brokerage business will be free to take on strategic partner (GS ?).
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 04/Feb/2007 at 9:01am
India Bulls will enter the Banking Business after the Demerger that is what the grapewine is . Anyway further demerger means .
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 04/Feb/2007 at 9:57am
News is official now ...
http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/news.asp?newsid=%7bC8EDE95D-D291-4A5A-90E8-0B3A84B45DA0 - http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/news.asp?newsid={C8EDE95D-D291-4A5A-90E8-0B3A84B45DA0 }
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2007 at 11:17am
Monday, February 05, 2007
Indiabulls Financial - Outcome of Board Meeting
Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on February 04, 2007, has discussed the proposal to restructure / re-organize the business of the Company and its subsidiaries.
It is proposed to consider alternatives for restructuring the Company including amalgamation of the entire business and undertaking of Indiabulls Credit Services Ltd with the Company.
Additionally, the Company will consider the transfer by way of a demerger of the undertakings, business, activities and operations of the Company pertaining to provision of broker dealer services, in particular, Indiabulls Securities Ltd, on a going concern basis, and seek permission to list the resulting entity.
Separately the Board noted the proposal for the acquisition of equity shares of Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd ("IHFL"), held by certain minority investors. The Board has authorized certain persons to negotiate and finalize the terms and conditions on which the Company shall acquire the equity shares of IHFL.
The Company expects that the restructuring initiatives would unlock significant value and also streamline the operations and ownership structure of the Company. The board has appointed certain advisers and has authorized a committee to prepare and present a draft proposal and related documents for the restructuring of the Company to be placed before and approved by the Board at a later date.
The board will make its final decision in due course regarding the restructuring exercise upon receiving the recommendations or the authorized committee and obtaining the required professional advice. |
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2007 at 8:27am
Guys IREL is free now. In 2007, so IBFSL is already 53% up from jan 1 level of 300. Broking may also be free in a year time. 
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 13/Feb/2007 at 12:48pm
IBFSL is deciding share ratio on 15 FEB meeting. Broking will go separate from financial entity. In my personal opinion restructuring has done to provide sharp focus on ...
1. Financials to buy a bank post 2009.
2. Profit of broking business to put for some unrelated play or becoming private equity. Possibility is enormous.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 14/Feb/2007 at 9:29am
Guys 1:1 share entitlement is announced today. It means for every 1 share of IBFSL, one will get 1 share of broking company.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: pradoshbasu
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 6:38pm
Have they declared the record date for demerger?
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 4:50am
Have they declared the record date for demerger?
----------
Not yet but it be announced very soon unlike real-estate case. Post demerger EPS will be split, so do not expect marathon run as it happened in last demerger. Going forward, I see Financial service company to be niche play. Having wide distribution channels, selling all financial products (in-house and third party).
Whereas broking company will remain cash-cow for new ventures. This company is similar to what ibull was started with.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
Posted By: ankit18
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2007 at 10:29pm
I think Reliance Money will break the back of Indiabulls, India Infoline, Kotak and ICICI DIRECT. They are offering direct cheap brokerages. In response others will also have to cut brokerages.
------------- Markets are never wrong. Opinions are!!!
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2007 at 10:46pm
Trading Volumes wil go up. It is the general broker whose back will be broken not these institutions. People who have good research will exist.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: ankit18
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2007 at 10:56pm
People will exist, but the backs of brokers will be broken, so bad for shareholders of these brokerages
------------- Markets are never wrong. Opinions are!!!
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2007 at 11:38pm
Consolidation will happen in Brokerages.Indiabulls,ICICI,Kotak will exist along with Reliance.
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2007 at 9:49am
People will exist, but the backs of brokers will be broken, so bad for shareholders of these brokerages .
Sometimes backs get strengthenedand and shareholders gain more rather than being broken .
Wal-Mart had to exit many markets of the world, when Reliaceinfocom came same was thought of Bharti (Clearly one can see who the winner is now!)
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Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2007 at 10:43am
(Clearly one can see who the winner is now!)
-----------
Good one vip1
When the difference between Perception and Reality is the greatest ... Prices are the best -- Soros
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2007 at 5:24am
Good to see de-risking king policy of Indiabulls. First they demerged real-estate and now financials to remove any dependency on any other businesses. Now Indiabulls is free to partner with any foreign entity. Somehow I feel Broking business will scouting for strategic partner. May be GS. GS after exit from Kotak is actively looking for new candidate. One fish can't eat it all. India is big and trading volume is growing. I don't think Reliance will eat them all. I see 6-7 big players in this business. May be Investsmart, reliance, ibull, kotak, icici, hdfc, geojit.
I suspect after strategic investor, ibulls broking may start venture capital, capital services.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2007 at 4:19am
Yesterday 'Merrill Lynch Capital Markets' picked 22 Lakhs shares from secondary market. Despite concerns on broking margin, FIIs are quite buying it.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 14/Mar/2007 at 6:26am
Latest report from DSP ML targets it at 525/share. Full report at http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/fiisresults/indiabullsfinancialservicesdspmerrilllynch/buyindiabullsfi/market/stocks/article/271517 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/fiisresults/indiabullsfinancialservicesdspmerrilllynch/buyindiabullsfi/market/stocks/article/271517
Meanwhile IBREL has reported few new projects in their website. As per speculation it should list by month-end. This is going to be the quality play in reality sector. Remember land-bank story is pure speculation. Even in early 1990, all IT companies had equal opportunities but only few became INFY or Wipro. It is promoter/management which makes a difference between best and average. From IBREL expect only the best.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 6:03am
Yesterday MORGAN STANLEY sold 10 Lakhs shares inopen market. This was reason for weekeness.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 7:16am
Where did you get those details ? Could you post the link?
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 7:19am
Indiabulls is a volatile stock and I was surprised it could hold well inspite of the mayhem, though its looking weak in the short term, its going to be a multibagger from this levels. I believe in the management and the wealth it has created over the years for the stakeholders.
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2007 at 2:37pm
Borkerage or Brokerage !!
-------------
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2007 at 9:32am
Indiabulls Real Estate releases shareholding and financial details; listing likely next week (Most likely on Monday) (For Apr-Dec, net loss of Rs 14.7 cr and income of Rs 7.5 cr)
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 20/Mar/2007 at 5:47am
Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd's effective ownership in the project Companies undertaking the proposed developments is Rs 151,250 million.
On equity capital of 3399.7 million, Book value comes out to be 446 INR per share.
--------------
Yesterday I saw new shareholding pattern of IBREL and I found that equity capital is 1800 million not 3399.7 million assumed at the time of calculation. It means, as per old logic book value per share is 842 INR. But remember it does not include gurgaon complex development. This project came much after project evaluation. But for worst case scenario, let's assume that project is also included. Now let's give share price fall discount to it as compared to Unitech. Unitech has fallen 19% from 52 week high. So IBREL price (in case it lists within a week) is 81% of 842 = 682. Now let give some 20% discount to IBREL because it is not Unitech type of quality player (although I refuse to accept it), so final IBREL price is 80% of 682 = 545 INR. At 545 IBREL mcap is 9810 Cr and mcap/project ratio is 0.64. It means at 545 IBREL is trading at 36% discount to it's project value.
I expect 545 to be achieved within 3 months of listing further value creation will depend upon addition of new projects and execution of existing ventures. Also SEZ is more of less cleared by Govt. IBREL already owned land for it, so no problem as such. Let's see what's next ..
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2007 at 4:56am
Trading Members of the Exchange are hereby informed that the under-mentioned securities of Indiabulls Real Estate Limited are listed and permitted for trading with effect from Friday, March 23, 2007.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2007 at 9:19am
Today, trade of Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd is commencing with base price of 407 with normal 20% filter. Let's see when my calculated price of 585 is reached.
Since listing, people have witness massive rise of IBFSL. A stock which entered into market 3 years ago, is quoting 22 time rise and in this process it forked out free share worth same. So at 407, A IPO guy got 44 times return. Please remember it's market valuation is not on the top-end. IBFSL is trading at 17-18 PE and IBREL at 407 is at much deeper discount at it's peers.
Let's see what Promoters say today at listing .... 
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2007 at 10:24am
We should look at Land Bank/Market cap for real estate companies. PE could be misleading sometimes.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2007 at 3:27pm
PE could be misleading sometimes....
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I think Real estate companies are not at all valued by PE....it is valued by NPV....Thankfully,SEBI has become strict on real estate IPOs...those who made money in IPOs by selling on first day itself...had a windfall..this situation will not arise anymore....
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2007 at 3:56pm
I think the norm is to go at 0.9 times Land Bank/ Market cap. That is because as I indicated elsewhere a company could sell all its property in one quarter and then be left with nothing for the coming quarters.
That is because the business model of a real estate company involves in the selling of its assets - land as we all know cannot be created but only bought and the market decides whether we can make any profit on that piece of land or not.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2007 at 11:46pm
My friend told me that Udayan Babu asked some really good probing questions to some guy from Knight Frank this morning on Valuations of realty companies.
Anyone here knows about it?
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2007 at 12:00pm
I saw the ending part of that interview but the research from the Knight Frank guy looked a bit inconclusive to me.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2007 at 4:49pm
Vipulji,
IBREL is available now with 20% extra discount.. Think some big guys are offloading in big way. Mittal has stake in IBREL right?
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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Posted By: s_praharaj
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2007 at 10:16pm
I just really don't understand this Land Bank and its valuation. Too many questions are cropping up regularly.
1. Whether the lands mentioned are registered in the name of the company or on lease or on agreement or on profit sharing basis or just a willingness letter of another landowner.
2. Who has made the valuation and how much trustworthy is the valuer.
3. Suppose tomorrow I would like to sell the land, how much I can get and how soon can the land be sold.
All these questions are making me fearful
------------- Shashi Praharaj
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2007 at 10:31pm
Who has made the valuation and how much trustworthy is the valuer.
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Yes, I am told that Udayan Babu grilled some Valuer from Knight Frank on this issue. There seems to be a nexus between a Valuer & his client for mutual benefit.
WB says "Never ask a barber whether you need a haircut".
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2007 at 7:23am
Even I could not understood why Knight Frank was so pathetic to something which he drafted. He was not at all defending his valuations. Looks like he was hired by dhakoos to draft that report/valuations.
Now, come to SP Tulsian. He is insider guy. Always in his interviews he goes into such deep details which only insider can have. Remember alembic glass case ? If he owns he come and recommends and vice-versa.
IBREL listing was result of demerger not a listing IPO. So they don't have to come with big valuation. A poor valuation might have worked well for promters (they pick from market in case they feel price is much below it's value, I have observed them many times).
Please remember there is big difference between land valuationd and project valuations. What Knight Frank came out with was project valuation not land valuation, which is around 350 per share.
As I mentioned many time in past, my comfort factor with Indiabulls is LNM. So, lets have faith and see what happens in next 3-6 months. We all got IBREL for free, so I am not in hurry to sell it.
Yesterday Citi sold 36 lakhs shares in open markets. With Indiabulls always expect the unexpected. Do one remember after demerger rcom fell to sub 200 levels and analyst were valuting it at 240-270. Now one can see where rcom is now. Going by this, one can see 250-270 in IBREL before it settle in proper orbit.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2007 at 7:34am
Originally posted by kulman
Who has made the valuation and how much trustworthy is the valuer.
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Yes, I am told that Udayan Babu grilled some Valuer from Knight Frank on this issue. There seems to be a nexus between a Valuer & his client for mutual benefit.
WB says "Never ask a barber whether you need a haircut".
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During the Interview, It was very apparent that Knight Frank was paid to put their seal of authencity on a report that was drafted by some vested interests.
The guy from Knight Frank was at a loss of words for any of Udayan's Questions and almost admitted that the valualtions were biased.
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 5:03am
Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius Pvt Ltd picked 10 Lakh shares of IBFSL. Now they own 92 Lakh shares. I suspect record date is near.
Meanwhile one insiderLal (SP Tulsian) turned positive on IBREL. This insiderLal is micro guy and goes into deep detail of the company.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 7:55am
Citi could be buying for any clients subaccount.
Its best not to get carried away by who's buying as we have no idea about their motivation.
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Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2007 at 1:33pm
I dont recollect but think Meril Lynch has recently put on sale to Indiabulls..
I think best strategy would be to buy when these fund houses put sale rating and viceversa.
If I have earned little bit of money in my investing career , lot of credit goes to these brokerage/fund houses (for not following their advise) and not listening to the business channel specialists 
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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