The Big Global boom facing the auto Industry!

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Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Sector talk
Forum Discription: Discussion on sectors with regard to specific matters. We will be discussing the various sectors of the economy and how they would perform. Basically a top down approach.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=466
Printed Date: 04/Apr/2025 at 7:44am

Topic: The Big Global boom facing the auto Industry!

Posted By: basant
Subject: The Big Global boom facing the auto Industry!
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 12:10pm

The Big Global boom facing the auto Industry!

The Indian automobile makers are set for a stupendous growth in exports over the next few years. Buoyed by their scale, cost and quality advantages the sector stands to grow by 32% CAGR in exports for the period FY06-Fy10. All the bigger auto companies Tata Motors, Maruti Udyog, Bajaj Auto Hero Honda, TVS Motor and M&M should benefit from this impending boom over the long term. The run up in their prices have disrupted the near term valuations but investors could wait to buy into these stocks as a part of their core long term portfolio.

Amongst the companies listed above the Bajaj Auto (multiple businesses) and Hero Honda (cheap valuations) appear to benefit more. M&M should also be a good pick.

Over the past three years, automobile exports have grown at a CAGR of 37.8%. The contribution of exports to total sales for Indian manufacturers has gone up from 4.9% in FY03 to 8.3% in FY06.

This growth has been rampant across all segments In Fy 10 exports should contribute 14% of total sales of the leading automobile manufacturers.

Companies	Exports in Rs crores	Exports as % to net sales	FY 02-06 CAGR in export revenue
Tata Motors	2197	10.7%	37.2%
Bajaj Auto	933.40	12.2%	55.5%
Maruti	642	5.8%	31.1%
M&M	465.1	5.9%	41.9%
Hero Honda	253	2.9%	51.9%
TVS	176.7	5.5%	80.2%

Leading automobile manufacturers of India have recently announced big-ticket capital expenditure and capacity expansion plans with an eye on the international market.

To cater to this strategy Bajaj Auto and TVS Motors are setting up independent manufacturing and distribution set ups in the target markets. Bajaj has already finalized markets of countries like Indonesia, Nigeria and South America (Columbia and Peru) under this strategy.

Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra are setting up a series of JV’s while Maruti and Hero Honda would not like to set up distribution chains but just serve as a sourcing base for the global majors.

Segment	Global Output Fy 05	Y-O-Y growth	Output India	India’s Share	Target Market	Potential growth
Motorcycles	38.1	9.2%	6.3	18.1%	21.7	3.45 times
Cars	46.4	3.4%	1.26	2.8%	12.3	10 times
LCV’s	17.2	-0.7%	0.16	0.9%	1.6	10 times
HCV’s	2.9	3.0%	0.2	7.2%	0.7	3.45 times
Tractors	0.7	5.0%	0.249	37.4%	0.5	1.85 times
Total	105.3	4.7%	8.2	8.1%	35.7	4.55 times

Now it is not that the total targeted market will be tapped by 2010 but that is where we intend to be in about a decade. Meanwhile the growth in almost all these auto companies will be complemented by this huge scale of opportunity that is available.

As I write this there unconfirmed reports of Volvo eyeing a stake in Ashok Leyland and Daimler Chrysler looking to buy into Eicher Motors. Once there foreign companies pick up/ increase stakes in the Indian auto manufacturers these would be made outsourcing hubs leading to a there will be a huge flow in orders. This coupled with the technology the foreigners would bring to the table would make the Indian companies a fit case for rerating.

Conclusion: While the Automobile export segment is growing at 32% these high growth figures would not make that much of a difference to the companies listed above since these companies still derive a very small percentage of their sales from exports. So it would take time for these companies to actually benefit in EPS terms from the growth in exports. This opportunity just adds to the visibility in terms of available markets and also increases the sustainability of earnings.

Source: Companies and HSBC

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Replies:

Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 11:05pm

The PEs of auto companies look low considering the potential described especially Hero Honda and perhaps Maruti both being great brand names as well.

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Ajith

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 9:01am

Since the proportion of export sales to total sales is low this opportunity might not get reflected in terms of EPS growth very soon. WHat it brings though is the long term visibility for these auto makers - over a period of 3-4 years as the percentage of export sales increases these companies should command higher pE's as it would reflect risk diversification of some type.

Posted By: shuchi
Date Posted: 11/Oct/2006 at 11:47am

Auto sales may touch 10 mn in 2006-07

This year is slated to be the hottest for the Indian automobile industry. Between April and September, automobile companies hawked over 4.86 million vehicles, including cars, two-wheelers and commercial vehicles, in the domestic market.

The staggering growth rate of 17.12 per cent for the half year is the highest in the last five years. If this trend continues, industry experts said sales could touch 10 million by March 2007, an annual growth rate of 20 per cent.

For the April-September period in 2005-06, sales of domestic vehicles stood at 4.15 million, up 13.39 per cent over the previous year. Prior to that, sales for the same period in 2004-05 were 3.66 million vehicles, a jump of 14.73 per cent.

“Every year in succession for the last three years has been better for the Indian automobile industry and I see no reason why this should not continue this year as well. We have seen consistent growth for the last five years, before which there was a down cycle,” said Sugato Sen, director, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Sen said they expected to sell 10 million vehicles by the end of 2006-07.

The last time the 20 per cent growth figure was breached was in 2000-2001. Analysts attribute the boom to several reasons, including a general economic boom, excise cuts in the Budget and attractive discounts offered by firms. Also, there has been a spurt in commercial vehicle demand, thanks to a Supreme Court ban on overloading.

“I am not surprised by the performance. We have had two years of moderate growth and last year’s was single-digit. Plus, the excise policy has paid off and if infrastructure is available, the dream of India becoming a small-car hub will also come true,” said Maruti Managing Director Jagdish Khattar.

“The cut in excise duty for small cars announced in the Union Budget in March 2006 is a key reason that has lent itself to the cause of the automobile industry,” said Ramnath Subramaniam, vice-president, research, SSKI.

The increasing mobility requirement of the population and the younger generation preferring personal transport had attributed to massive growth in sales, said Anil Dua, vice-president, sales and marketing, Hero Honda India Ltd.

Of course, discounting and higher tenure of vehicle loans have also helped in pushing demand. Points out Anang Dev Jena, research director, Synovate Motor Research, “Companies are outdoing each other in offering heavy discounts because of competition. So, effective prices have not gone up.”

He added that next year would be even better as a slew of new launches were being planned by industry leaders, including Maruti, Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto, Hyundai Motors India Ltd and Tata Motors.

Many argue that the best is yet to come. “This is just the beginning. The best of growth is yet to come in the latter half of the financial year, with the festive season and New Year purchases. Investment in automobiles has rapidly increased and besides the bulging base of compact cars, the mid-size sedans will also be a rapidly growing segment in the next 3-4 years,” said Arvind Saxena, vice-president, Hyundai Motors Indian Ltd.

The boom in vehicles sales, a key indicator of growth, is expected to have a positive impact on the country’s economy, too.

“The first quarter of the year saw GDP growth of 8.9 per cent and based on the six-monthly figures of the automobile sector, one can infer that the buoyancy in the economy will continue in the second quarter on the same lines as well ,” said Subir Gokarn, chief economist, Crisil.

“The automobile sector is pivotal to manufacturing, with its relationship to steel, rubber, ancillaries, services and fuel consumption. It is very rare to see the segment growing in isolation,” he added. . ( source : business standard )

Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 12/Oct/2006 at 12:25pm

Basant ji,

I would like to know the following:

1) Which is the most attractive Auto-parts company, in terms of valuations as of now?

2) What kind of growth can be seen on number 1 here and for how many years?

Looking for a big multibagger here. How practical is it?

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Oct/2006 at 1:58pm

Looking for a big multibagger here. How practical is it - No these are mature companies and mature companies can give a big multifold rise only when you can get them in a down cycle.

I would put Bajaj Auto ahead of the others. Tremendous value unlocking could be done from its investments in ICICI, Bajaj Allianz etc.Growth should be between 18% - 24% CAGR till Fy 10.

Posted By: nikhil091
Date Posted: 12/Oct/2006 at 2:10pm

Dear Basantji,

What about auto component manufacturers? They have a much bigger universe to sell their capacities. Many of them are already exporting significant portion of their revenues (Bharat Forge, Amtek etc) and they have subsidiaries in US/Europe also. I remember that you had a shortlist for Amtek Auto in the portfolio but removed it later. Any specific reasons? What is your view on Amtek auto in particular?

Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 12/Oct/2006 at 2:22pm

The automobile boom(various aspects of it) will be another factor helping the domestic consumption story and the bigger multibaggers would be here not in automobiles itself but achievements at the global level by the listed auto players may make my present assertion sound foolish in the medium to longterm.The depth of the boom that is set to take place in Tamil Nadu due to automobiles (and semiconductors apart from others)sector is staggering.

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Ajith

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Oct/2006 at 2:31pm

Amtek Auto is good but I do not remember writing about in in detail. Most of the Indian auto ancillaries would take over from their foreign peers. Companies to keep an eye on could be Bharat Forge, AMtek Auto, http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=376 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=376 -

Posted By: chic_1978
Date Posted: 12/Oct/2006 at 5:32pm

Hi Basantjee

How about Ucal Fuels, Check the customers list

To name some of our esteemed clients
INTERNATIONAL CLIENTS
MIKUNI CORPORATION - JAPAN
DOMESTIC CLIENTS

MARUTI UDYOG LTD.

HYUNDAI MOTOR INDIA LTD.

HERO HONDA MOTORS LTD.

TVS MOTOR CO.

BAJAJ AUTO LTD.

YAMAHA MOTOR INDIA LTD.

ROYAL ENFIELD.

LML LIMITED

HERO MOTORS

KINETIC ENGINEERING LTD.

HONDA SIEL POWER PRODUCTS.

BIRLA YAMAHA LTD.

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happy & wise investing

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Oct/2006 at 5:36pm

In the auto ancilliary space all the companies will haver the ssame set of customers but we need to know how good their product is and that I would have no idea.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2007 at 7:36pm

is it time to pick scrips in the auto industry? the sector is virtually at the bottom of the cycle and scrips are available at 52-week lows.

I am looking at Munjal Auto, enkei castalloys, autoaxles. what do teddies think of these scrips?

ideas and suggestions please

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2007 at 7:49pm

Not many TEDdies follow companies in Auto Ancilliaries sector including me.

Just a observation: Have you had a look at Exide, Amara Raja (Amaron), Bharat Forge? These three cater to other growing sectors as well.

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2007 at 8:03pm

Check out the export percentage in these companies. That is because a higher export percentage will work against these companies now.

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2007 at 10:31pm

and who knows it could be cheaper to import these parts also.i think the knife cuts both ways

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2007 at 11:15pm

sucheta dalal's magazine MoneyLife had recommended a few scrips like enkei castalloy, minda, eicher and munjal auto on the basis of their fundamentals. The mag was of the opinion that these companies could fly once the auto industry comes out of depression.

minda and eicher took off before i could buy Cry

so I wait for a correction before accumulating. enkei and munjal I pick in small lots on intra-day dips. may even trade on them if they spurt on volatility.

It may well happen that the auto sector may start showing signs of recovery if the RBI reduces interest rates next week.

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2007 at 12:48pm

If you want to play auto ancilliary sector, buy M&M. It's 100% subsidiary Systech is expected to do a turnover of $1 billion soon. And M&M might list this company too.

According to me, it doesn't make sense to invest in chota mota auto ancilliary companies. Especially so if the logic of investing is that there will be a higher demand for car/bikes because of expected lower interest rates.

If you want to play this game, buy Maruti or M&M or Tata Motors - because they will anyway benefit from interest rate fall. And there is an additional kicker of new exciting model introductions. When it comes to consumer space, buying companies which own brands is more profitable.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2007 at 8:53am

M&M has that associated problem of embedded value of Tech mahindra and the price seems to folow just too many variables.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2007 at 9:07am

who knows, kulmanji's bicycle factory (as he planned to hedge crude price effect) may also produce all battery operated bicycles...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

The factory is awaiting funding from US based friend of Us121, who is rumoured to be launching a Hedge Fund.

On a serious note, as said earlier Amaron or Exide batteries both also cater to sectors other than Auto, viz. Power T&D (Sub-stations/ Switchgears), Telecom, UPS/Inverters, Solar etc etc... I don't however have exact contributions of their business from various sectors.

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 22/Nov/2007 at 12:10pm

Originally posted by smartcat

If you want to play auto ancilliary sector, buy M&M. It's 100% subsidiary Systech is expected to do a turnover of $1 billion soon. And M&M might list this company too.

Been reading up on fundamentals of auto companies and many scrips particularly in the ancillary industry appear to enjoy really good valuations. If the market turns bearish, many of the scrips will get attractive though they won't fall that much.

Again, much of the info I got on the companies are courtesy MoneyLife since they seem to aggressively check on things like RoE, cash flow and stuff.

http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:8rfinBaa7oEJ:moneylife.in/CMS.nsf/AL3%3FOpenForm%26Stocks%7EStock%2520Screen%2520Model%7EFast%2520Movers+moneylife.in+automotive+axles&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us - Automotive Axles from the Kalyani Group is the largest manufacturer of rear drive axle assemblies in the country. Its clients include Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Volvo and Bharat Earth Movers, says Money LIfe. The down side is that AA is the largest overseas supplier of front axles to the US market so it could take a beating from the falling dollar.

http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:07NCqHtYNK8J:moneylife.in/CMS.nsf/AL3%3Fopenform%26Stocks%7ECover%2520Story%7EStocks%2520With%2520High%2520Returns+moneylife.in+enkei+castalloy&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us - Enkei Castalloy, Minda and Munjal Auto Industries according to MoneyLife give excellent RoE. While Munjal Auto Industries, part of the Hero group of companies, has an RoE over the past three years averaging 61.65%, Enkei Castalloy's RoE over the past three years has averaged 33.81%. "Enkei leads the Indian market in manufacturing cylinder heads and alloy wheels for two- and four-wheelers and is a single-source supplier of many critical engine parts," says the ML analyst. According to ML, Minda is India’s largest manufacturer of two- and three-wheeler automotive switches. It also enjoys high RoE of 33.15 % over the past three years. Minda's sales to market cap ratio was 2.65 times and a market cap to operating profit ratio of 4.55 times.

I guess investors over the medium term should accumulate such stocks that can enjoy rich valuations when the auto sector picks up.

Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 27/Dec/2007 at 1:34pm

Has anyone done a Check on RANE MADRAS ? Sanjoy Bhattacharya had recommended in this years Investors conference organized by Capital Ideas Online .In fact this is what he said :

Rane (Madras) is a play on the Indian automotive industry. It is in linkage products and manual steering gears.

Fortunately, in the Indian passenger vehicles, tractors, LCV business, a very large proportion of vehicles manufactured in these categories have manual steerings. So, growth is assured. Second, it has a very strong dominant competitive position with only two serious competitors – Sona Koyo and ZF Steering, and the record of all three suggests that the industry as a whole is doing very well. Third, it has been through a major financial restructuring. So, you will see a dramatic change in terms of the efficiency with which capital is utilised to prepare and grow for the future. And in exports, it has a link with TRW, a major global player.
Hopefully we will see Rs 100 crore exports in this to TRW by the year 2009 which will actually change the operating margin profile of Rane (Madras). Because right now the EBITDA margin is very low at 9.5-10 per cent which over time should improve and there should be benefits of scale.

It is cheap, it is going to earn about Rs 11.50 a share and it will continue to grow at 20-25 per cent for the next three years. Reasonably competent, trading at 8 times this year’s earnings, you should be all right.

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To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks .
Benjamin Graham.

Posted By: gcpradhan1
Date Posted: 27/Dec/2007 at 2:00pm

Rane Steering Madras is doing fine what I heard from one of my friend who works for one of its competitors Sona-Koyo. He was saying that Rane is eating out Sona's client. Earlier Sona was supplying steering to Maruti for all the models. But now Rane has started supplying steering for few Maruti Models. And my friend was highly appreciating their sales startegy and management, although Sona-Koyo is the oldest and cash rich among these three.

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Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years - Buffet

Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 27/Dec/2007 at 2:22am

One should look at Enams reports in the Auto Ancillary sector as Nemish Shah has been bullish in this sector for a long time.

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Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Dec/2007 at 5:35am

while i am a great enam fan i think that they have not been as correct on this one. They are bullish since 1995 and now the dollar is playing spoil sport.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: SORUB
Date Posted: 27/Dec/2007 at 8:40am

valuemanji
can you tell us about the management...

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K.I.S.S(keep it simple silly) is the most easy management formula i ever came across!!! but it is very hard to follow!!!

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 8:22pm

A MUST read article by Andy Mukherjee:

http://www.livemint.com/2008/02/21231010/Chindia-lust-forces-common-sen.html - Chindia lust forces common sense out

http://www.livemint.com/2008/02/21231010/Chindia-lust-forces-common-sen.html -

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 10:00am

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1159345 - Lumax puts Haridwar, Thai plans on hold

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: Monkey
Date Posted: 01/Sep/2009 at 11:09pm

Is there any thread on Bosch Ltd? This one is MNC in Auto-ancillary sector. Based on information provided in annual report for year end Dec '08, net profits have gone up six times in last ten years. There is no dilution of equity in this time frme. On the contrary, company has been buying back shares from market and thereby, reducing equity outstnding. Stock price has held-up well in last year.

Any insights from members on this company?

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