Digitization- A game changer ?
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Sector talk
Forum Discription: Discussion on sectors with regard to specific matters. We will be discussing the various sectors of the economy and how they would perform. Basically a top down approach.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=3659
Printed Date: 05/Apr/2025 at 3:48pm
Topic: Digitization- A game changer ?
Posted By: koolvalue
Subject: Digitization- A game changer ?
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 8:47pm
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CNBC Ramesh Damani today-
Positive on media sector.He even gave an example he had recomonded HDFC bank at 20 and adjusted splits now it is 3000 and said similar opportunity exists in media sector. Basant Sir and other Tedies what we take from this? Which company he is refering? RD is different from other jokers on paid media and whatever he says warrants discussion. Pls come with possible companies from media sector which he may be refering. Thanks |
Replies:
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 9:30pm
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Koolvalue, do you have any links for the same? ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 9:46pm
I watched it around 1900 hrs today on CNBC AWAJ. Anchor asked him about next hot sectors and RD came up with media sector (advertisers,content providers,bordcasters etc).Post digitalisation their earnings will significantly increase and that will rerate the sector that what he said. Anchor then asked him about consumption themes and he said that this theme will also play on but buy companies with High ROE/ROCE,which generate actual free cash flows and distribute it to investors.Buy companies which products are repeatedly bought by same customers. But what I could make out was that he was definately more positive on media sector.I do not track/never tracked any media company that is why I put up this topic so that TEDIES tracking media sector can suggest us possible candidates.(opportunity he mentioned looks huge he compared HDFC 'S RISE FROM 20 TO 3000).Can someone imagine a possible 150 bagger from media sector.May be collectively we should request basantji to post some coment on this. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 9:53pm
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that is nothing new.. he has been saying same thing for last 2 yrs. He had suggested TV Today before. I find media sector too crowded to make money on consistent basis. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 9:59pm
Thanks I never tracked media sector that's why was not aware of the same.But with growing education levels it seems logical that this sector will benefit.But we need to research and find most unlikely benefeciaries rather than obvious ones (generaly they turn out multibaggers) If you are tracking sector please share some info. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 10:16pm
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Almost 2 yrs back I used to own ENIL, Network18 and TV18 .. all of them rallied and thankfully I sold them at right time. NW18 went down from my sell price of 145 to even 30. The real issue is nobody knows who owns these companies and for what purpose. They are corporates but operate like mafia with little transparency. Now you have ADAG also into it. They are like rotten fish which destroys whole pond. So be very careful and take a look at DEN network and Hathway cable if you are ok with slightly inferior corp. governance. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 8:14am
Thanks will start digging now.When RD is talking of 150 bagger obviously we have to screen 50 to 100 cr marketcap companies first. |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 9:02am
| One additional factor I'd like to add to this discussion is that media (Esp television) is a cyclical sector. If the economy were to boom after a few of the competitiors were to be knocked out anything can happen but capitalizing on the info requires patience and the ability to guess the bottom. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 10:33am
I just saw RJ disclosing TV18 as one of his holdings. SO you have all the ingredients for a rally in media stocks  ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 11:30am
Guess you mean an initial rally for suckers 
|
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2012 at 11:48am
very much!! I glanced through the earnings of these '18 group companies. I guess it would unfair to say it is not a minefield . Who knows it could improve going forward.------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 13/Nov/2012 at 12:06pm
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They might me refering to some thing like Infoage India kind of play which is sort of indirect media play
But Iam surprised that no one mentioned anything about food sector (stocks like speciality restaurants etc),market leaders in consumption themes like titan,page etc. It is beyond guess of average people like us to imagine what these great minds (especially RD ) thinks.RD is known for investing in a stock way much early,hold it during value phase and see it rise exponentially in growth phase.Few years of his chat has thrown a lot of multibagers.He is also known for investing where his mouth is so lets dig further this media sector together beyond known names |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 13/Nov/2012 at 2:56pm
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Either there is some big speculation going on or all the market participants have all of a sudden found value in Media sector.
I doubt if the latter is true... All corporates buying news channels... All big players.. Damani.. Rj... Manish Chokhani... Madhu Kela, etc. recommending it.. RJ buying stake in TV18... Something surely is cooking... ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2012 at 12:51pm
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Government is planning to digitize the whole cable industry till 2014. It'll probably be done till 2016 considering various hindrances.
The basic flow with which cable TV distibution works is: Broadcaster----> Multi-System Operator (MSO) ----> Local Cable Operator (LCO) ----> Consumers Pre-digitization: LCO report to MSO the number of subscribers. General trend found that LCO only report 15-20% of actual subscriber base. So if 100 consumers belonging to a LCO watch CNBC, LCO report the number to be only 15-20. LCO pay fees of only 20 consumers to MSO & pocket that of remaining 80 consumers. Post-digitization: Each consumer will view channels through Set-top-box (STB). It'll act as a unique IP for each consumer. So MSO will get accurate report of how many consumers actually view the channels. So role of LCO will now turn into only collection agents for MSO. So now MSO will get fees for actual 100 consumers. This will benefit distributors who were losing on revenues due to under-reporting by LCO. Nature of Media industry: Fixed costs form a very large part of total costs. So when revenue increases, profits rise disproportionately. (Economies of scale) Currently subscription revenues form only 30% of broadcasters revenue while 70% comprises of advertising revenues. With digitization.. this ratio will change to 50-50%. FMCG sector forms 40% of advertisement volume. With this sector booming, volume will go up. Also advertising rates have been flat. Rate increase will add as a trigger. Distribution expenses are higher than subscription revenues, so they are making operational losses. Also the carriage fees will reduce due to digitization as carrying capacity will increase due. (Currently TV18 paid 350 cr as carriage fees as opposed to 300 received as subscription revenues) Before DAS ARPU (Monthly) Rs. 160 ARPU (Annual) Rs. 2000 Number of households 12 crore Subscription Base Rs. 24000 crore Revenues earned by all broadcasters combined Rs 3600 crore Carriage fees paid Rs 1800 crore Net revenue Rs 1800 crore After DAS Estimated net revenue Rs. 9500 crore Thats a 5 times jump without taking into account the increase in ARPU or subscriber base. ARPU may not increase due to fierce competition, but subscriber base will indeed increase. ================================================================================= TV18 Now lets focus on TV18. Recently made a complex deal. It acquired Eenadu TV (E TV) from Reliance. It financed this deal using rights issue. And Reliance will fund the rights issue.. WTF !!!! Hell of a financial engineering !!! Lets concentrate on the outcome of the deal. Bouquet of 49 channels. Formed a JV with Viacom named IndiaCast for distribution of all 49 channels. Current debt of 700 odd crores & interest outgo of 85 cr. TV18 planning to bring debt down by 400 cr using proceeds from rights issue. This will add around 48-50 cr to bottomline. RJ is invested !! 
Valuations: Can't evaluate it on traditional basis of ROE and P/E. It is a bet that government will complete digitization in next 3-4 yrs and meanwhile revenues will start flowing in & will add directly to bottomline as they are incurring very less incremental costs. Concerns: Very complex group structure. Government delaying digitization- This will probably not happen looking at way 4 metros were digitized. Too much in news- Everyone recommending on Samvat that this sector will produce multibaggers is a bit of concern. Request: This is an elementary analysis. I am sure I have missed many many points which Teddies will point out... Basantji, I request you to please point out the flaws as you know this industry in and out as you have made a 14 bagger in TV18. ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2012 at 8:03am
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Yes, it is a game changer. In India media bubble resurfaces at about 6-8 years. This is turnaround time for media and TV Channels in particular. Even now it is not too late. Tough I don't like Rajdeep, Karan Thapar, Sagrika and Barkha, and even governance of their companies. |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2012 at 10:36am
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Manish ji, have you taken any bets in this sector or are staying away bcz of corporate governance issues ? ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: Anand Bhushan
Date Posted: 19/Nov/2012 at 11:23am
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Hi
I have taken exposure in Hathway cable. I read somewhere in this tread that there are some issues with corp governance. It would be great help if we discuss those issues and throw some more light. For me broadcasting is a bit risky space as they have to roll out new programmes which shd be better than the last one (so far as rating is concern) in order to compound the profitability and hence stock price. so the commodity type of business in this space is MSOs where there is not much product innovation is required and once the infrastructure is built for providing their services they can milk disproportionately from the same customer. I would appreciate if corp governance issues are discussed related to Hathway cable. |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 20/Nov/2012 at 9:42pm
Have small bet. Will increase on decline or start seeing higher ad-rates/more digitization. Right now it is a basket as can not figure out winners. But mostly whole sector will move in tandem with TV18 the leader as we saw in 2006-7. |
Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 23/Nov/2012 at 12:18pm
can someone list the websites and channels come under TV18. I am confused between tv18 and network18 
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Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 23/Nov/2012 at 1:58pm
What shall they hold TV 18 CNBC TV!18 and AWAAZ plus 85% stake in web18 the internet holding company of the company. Network 18* 51% in TV 18; 51% in Global broadcast news that shall hold the CNN-IBN news channel This from Basantji's first post on this topic few years back please go through entire thread to get clear picture about various activities and opportunities for these two entities. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 05/Dec/2012 at 9:08pm
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After going through Zee News- Jindal episode. I think scams are big earning driver for news channels.
> Bring eye balls and hence advertisers > You could do sting to extort money. I think all of us ae ignoring this revenue driver. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 05/Dec/2012 at 11:22am
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After digging deep in this sector slowly comming to a conclusion this is going to be next capital sucker for small investors.Trap well layed to exit lossmaking previous
investments. |
Posted By: gyansr
Date Posted: 06/Dec/2012 at 9:31pm
If you watch local channels you will realize that extortion is not only at B2B level but at B2C level and C2C(Journalists earning by threatening) level as well. So, in that sense these channels may compete with ITC and Titans of the world. Here are some examples. a. Showing a PG owner how she is exploiting ladies by keeping more than allowed number of persons per room. I did not know any rules existed until I saw it on TV. b. Showing a Baba as a married person, and he is crying and going to wits ends to proove that the women in question is not his wife. I would doubt any of that is for social cause. Sometimes I feel that is their real business. Everything else is to keep people glued so that they can earn this money. |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 06/Dec/2012 at 9:54pm
Can you please post your findings ??
------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 10/Dec/2012 at 8:41am
Sorry for late reply. Bsically I spoke with some people who are closely associated with media sector (not equity analyst).As per them 1)Digitalisation is unlikely to happen very soon and it is a prolonged process. Hence it cannot be a game changer. 2)Basically media sector here makes money for not giving news/not giving coverage and hence listed entities do not get any benifits. 3)Most of the media ventures are strategic in nature and making money for shareholders is not their main aim. 4)Most of the people in this sector are not comfortable with basic structure of the model. They feel it is somewhat similar to Airline business which always bleeds regardless of positive or negative environment. 5)There is no proof for ad rates increasing. Infact because of competation from web based advertising television/news paper ad rates are more or less stagnent or moving downward. 6)Lack of creative content- as this field is run by chacha-bhatija kind of people creative content is not happening. 7) Most of the media players are indirectly controlled by political parties hence EDITORS are planted rather than selected and spend most of time protecting interest of planters rather than doing business. Basically problems with media sector are more structural in nature and unless these are addressed digitalisation alone cannot be a game changer but will just act as sucker |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 19/Jan/2013 at 10:34pm
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http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results/tv18-turns-cornerrs-213cr-net-profitq3_810345.html#toptag ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Jan/2013 at 8:19am
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Key numbers to watch and predict will be EPS and RoCE. ALso one has to think that from the current market cap of Rs 6000 crores for one to make a 5 bagger the company has to do a profit of Rs 1000 crores to be traded at a PE of 30. What can help it reach that number. Assuming a 18% PAT they would need a revenue of Rs 6000 crores. You can keep tweaking on those numbers but this is a broad guideline for a five bagger. There are already six business channels now and the public opinion on all the channels cannot be differentiated because the talking heads remain the same so how can they take this forward. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 19/Jan/2013 at 10:58am
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Agreed.. If you go by their traditional business, doing 6000 cr is steep ask. My bet is that TV-18 will benefit from digitization as the under-reporting done by LCO will disappear. Basantji, don't you think this is a likely scenario? Thats the reason I think their revenues should go upward..
I've not taken a big bet on this though and it forms 10% of my portfolio..
------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 14/Feb/2013 at 8:08pm
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Those who think media is like monopoly biz with steady subscription revenue like in US. Those should also keep in mind the recent trend of Google YouTube becoming like a channel itself. The trend is catching up very fast and we Indians like free lunch isn't it? How many guys are ready to pay Rs 1000/month for a dumb cable subscription? Someone would say that only strong content players would survive but the key question is with politicians pumping black money in this sector are we not underestimating the staying power of losers?
However, I do feel there would be brief period of sunshine in the next few years when it would look like things are getting better before another digital revolution i.e. internet arrives in our homes. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
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Date Posted: 22/Jan/2016 at 6:40am
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