subash1983's portfolio
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Portfolio Check Up
Forum Discription: Members may put forward their portfolios dor comments from other members. The final call will obviously be taken by the investor himself.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=3553
Printed Date: 03/Apr/2025 at 4:25am
Topic: subash1983's portfolio
Posted By: subash1983
Subject: subash1983's portfolio
Date Posted: 14/Mar/2012 at 5:55pm
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Hi, I have started investing 5 months back. This is my portfolio. Axis Bank, Yes Bank, Goodyear - 10% each 4-6% worth of portfolio is these stocks Vivimed Lab Oracle -> delisting play Divis Lab Amar Raja Battery Kennametal -> delisting play Zylog System -> good valuation VST Industry -> divident play Thangamyl Cravatex Balakrishna Ind eClerx Lupin SBI Gold ETF planning to add more Yes Bank, eClerX, Zylog, VST and Cravatex Also planning to add Kajaria Ceramics, Ajantha pharma, Ipca Lab, Carborandum Universal, Aarshiya International, Mayur Uniquoter, Indag Rubber to my portfolio in near future. Please let me know your thought on it |
Replies:
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2012 at 5:47pm
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Sold Oracle, Kennametal and Thangamyl. Now my Portfolio looks like this Stock % ------------------------------------------------------ Yes Bank 10.1 Goodyear 9.9 Axis Bank 9.0 Mayur Uniquoter 6.0 Vivimed 5.8 Divis 5.2 Kajaria Ceramics 5.1 Indag Rubber 5.1 VST 5.0 Zylog 4.9 Ajanta Pharma 4.9 Amar Raja 4.8 Balakrishna Ind 4.5 Cravtex 4.4 eClerX 4.1 Lupin 3.9 Gold ETF 3.8 Do let me know what do you think about it |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2012 at 7:19pm
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I think most of the juice might be out of vst now with the rise post budget. The dividend yield might be the only attraction.
Rest of the portfolio looks good. A matter of concern about Indag is the management wanting shareholder permission to enter various businesses related to energy and oil and what not. I dont know why they want shareholder consent for totally unrelated diversifications. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: manish962
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2012 at 10:18am
Just a suggestion - instead of having four pharma cos., you may consolidate it into two. Also as suggested by Hitesh, Indag mgt wants to diversify into power - not a good sign. You may add either Hawkins or Page Ind to get more into consumption theme. Otherwise your portfolio looks good.
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Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 30/Mar/2012 at 4:00pm
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Added more Zylog and Mayur Uniquoter. Planning to add more of Lupin, Vivimed, eClerx, Amar Raja battery. Planning to get rid of Indag rubber in rally with a small profit. Regarding 4 pharma company, actually I am planning to add 1/2 more company to it (Most likely Sun, Ipca or Piramal). I am starting to have a feeling that Indian pharma company are going to have a super boom like IT/ITes/BPO boom of India. Patents of quite a number of high selling drugs are going to expire in US in comming years, and Indian pharma comapny are best suited for ripping the benefit of the same. Stock % ------------------------------------------------------ Mayur Uniquoter 10.0 Yes Bank 9.2 Goodyear 8.8 Zylog 8.8 Axis Bank 8.1 Vivimed 5.2 Divis 4.9 Kajaria Ceramics 4.9 Indag Rubber 4.7 VST 4.7 Ajanta Pharma 4.4 Amar Raja 4.5 Balakrishna Ind 4.3 Cravtex 4.0 eClerX 3.7 Lupin 3.7 Gold ETF 3.6 |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2012 at 10:41pm
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Hi, I follow a modified form of equity sip. I usually buy few stocks of one company once a week (with approximately same amount of money in every week). So in last 5 months I have around 20 script in my portfolio (want to keep it at 20 +/- 2 in future). During the time when stock market is in a bear phase, I usually buy the stock which has lost 7% or more to average the cost. The problem I face is when the index is going up. I usually follow my own intuition in deciding which stock to buy. Intuition by definition can go wrong, so I needed a way, or approach which can tell me which stock to buy (and sell if I find a stock with better opportunity). So I used a modified form of Basant's ROE/ROCE formula. I choose small/mid cap stocks with consistent 20+ ROE/ROCE in last 5 years. I found out the estimated ROE/ROCE for next 2 year by looking at the research reports (my personal preference is Firstcall's research report). If I couldn't find any research report I extrapolated these 2 values from the last 2 years ROE/ROCE. I took an average of last 2 year and future 2 years ROE ( minimum(ROE,ROCE) or (ROE+ROCE)/2 in some cases). I calculated 1/PEGY ratio that is (ROE + Div Yield)/PE and sorted the stocks in low to high. Also I found out 1yr and 2yr stock performance. So I came up with this table.
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Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2012 at 10:46pm
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When I analyze the stock return of last 1 yr and last 2 yr, I got clean bowled. The average 1yr return came out as 85% and 2 year return as 168%. So If someone had invested in these 20 odd company (putting equal amount of money in each, not even doing cost averaging if the stock fall), he would have gained 168% in 2 years. Has anyone in TED observed the same, and do people make so much of gain from stock market? |
Posted By: Ravenrage
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2012 at 10:51am
The essence of the game is sustainability of gains. Hence , its better to have a 25% return for 10 years than spurt in gains. But definitely those sort of returns would make any fund manager jealous !
------------- Risk does not reside in price changes, but in miscalculations of intrinsic value . |
Posted By: manish962
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2012 at 11:58am
Piramal has hived off its formulation business and hence could not be termed as a pure pharma play. I think sun is the best of the pack but the valuations are rich.
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Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2012 at 1:27pm
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My latest portfolio. Sold Divis lab, Axis Bank, and 50% of yes bank. Added Mayur uniquoter, Munjal auto and setco auto.
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Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2012 at 5:05pm
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Sold eClerx, and Yes Bank. Added more Mayur Uniquoter, Page Industry, Kaveri Seeds, La Opala RG, and Alembic Pharma
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Posted By: coolcarney
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2012 at 6:38pm
| Any particular reason for selling Yes Bank? Won't the rate cut help Yes? I am just trying to understand. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2012 at 7:24pm
I am extremely skeptical of any and everything touched/influenced by our dear govt of India, and their pervasive policy (be it bank, infra). Basically I want to make my investment as less dependent on policy decisions by our extremely educated and still silently remote controlled PM and his folks. Also I want my investment to be as less correlated with sensex as possible. I also don't know how to value banking/finance stock (other than the fact that they are done via P/B ratio, but don't know how to see P/B ratio and tell how good the bank is for investing) So I sold all my banking stocks. So I have switched to slightly lesser known, mid/small cap companies with low/zero debt-to-equity ratio, and a consistent ROE >20 for last 3 year (and estimated ROE > 20 for coming 2 years), and PEGY ratio less than 1. As per my analysis such companies have outperformed market like anything in last 2 years (I have checked around 30-40 companies). (1 year return ~70% and 2 yr return ~150%). I don't see such return opportunity in any banking stocks. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2012 at 7:38pm
Can you put up a list of such companies which you studied? Or any noteworthy companies which caught your eye? ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2012 at 10:11pm
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Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2012 at 10:46pm
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hOW N WHICH FILTER DID U USED? ------------- Share market is nothing but a game of temperament. Success mantra Right Price,Right Business,Patience, Conviction .Do not do panic buying or selling.It may be the only profession where inactivity pays |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2012 at 10:57pm
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All manual hard work ... on an average 0.5-2 hr a day. It is not just blind filtering. I go through n number of sources to find out good companies. (Sometime I found better info about a company in moneycontrol comment section, than CRISIL reports). Then check the ROE/ROCE numbers, PE ratio, 1-2 year return. If I find a good company I add the same to it. If I see any company having 1/PEGY ratio <1, it get pruned. Planning to have 30-40 such well chosen stock. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2012 at 12:46pm
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thanks and great work subash. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: NikhilM
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2012 at 1:01am
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It is interesting to observe a lot of auto-ancillary businesses making it to the list. If one gives a random thought to auto-ancillary businesses,it is easy to discard these companies on the grounds of low bargaining power viz-a-viz OEMs. I'll have to dwell deeper into characteristics of auto-ancillary businesses,I guess.
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Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2012 at 5:28pm
It is easy to get to a random conclusion by giving a random thought. Hence it can't be basis for selecting/dis-selecting stocks for investment. Whereas consistent ROE figure of 20+ (years after years) tells that the management of the company is consistence and efficient in creating value for shareholder. PEG ratio < 1 gives a cushion on risk. These two ratios forms the backbone of GARP investing. |
Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2012 at 7:42pm
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I would suggest adding a few more layers to this list and prune it further Debt:Equity > Prefer 0 to low debt:equity companies. While leverage in itself is not bad, but interest payments should not hurt margins and Int Coverage should be sufficiently high. Also, do consider net debt ( debt - cash on BS). Lynch suggests considering the cash per share for a company with negative net debt. Example : Mayur Uni ( with negative net debt) has about ~ 28/- cash per share. So effective P/E is much lesser and hence PEG also improves. Margins : OPM and NPM and trends over last 2 years Dividend Payout: The yield is not alone important but the payout %age also is. How much of the EPS is being returned. A sound management will either deploy cash efficiently to generate higher RoE or else return it to shareholders as dividend. For a company with Growth < ROE cash added to networth actually downgrades the ROIC as excess cash is non productive. Cash EPS : Operational cash flow per share for the company. Peter Lynch suggested a cash yield of 10%+ , cash yield being Cash EPS/Current Price. Example: VST Tillers have a cash yield of 12%+. ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2012 at 8:28pm
I never thought of this while evaluating VST Tillers.  ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 22/Apr/2012 at 6:53pm
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I could get the info on OPM, and NPM, and Divident payout ratio. Few ratios I couldn't get (by looking at moneycontrol website) are cash on BS (and pershare data). And the calculation reaching to Rs 22 per share cash. Also I couldn't figure out how to get the cash EPS and cash yield. Feels like should have remembered few more stuffs from the financial engineering course that I had at KGP 6-7 years back.
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Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 22/Apr/2012 at 10:14pm
First and foremost, never use Moneycontrol data for any analysis. There numbers are often inconsistent. Refer to Edelweiss ( e.g. Mayur Uni page at this url : http://www.edelweiss.in/company/Mayur-Uniquoters-Ltd.html). They source all data live from Capitaline Plus which is an industry standard database for all IB and Eq Research people. Next, if you look in the tabs under financials, you will find all relevant info. Consider annual figures and Capitaline considers consolidated figures. OPM is simply EBIT / Revenue. NPM is PAT or Net Profit / Revenue. Dividend Payout is Dividend Paid / Full year EPS. Cash EPS is basically Operating Cash flow i.e. cash earned from operations ( excluding investing and financing activities) per share. Calculated as operational cash flow / no of shares outstanding. For VST Tillers for FY11, Cash EPS = 51.43 Cr Rs / 0.86 Cr shares = 59.52 Rs/share. Cash yield = Cash EPS / CMP = 59.52 / 480 = 12.4% Cash per share calculation. For Mayur Uni >> 28/- per share Debt as on FY11 end = 7.78 Cr Cash & Cash Equivalents = 22.83 Net Debt = Debt - Cash = 7.78 - 22.83 = 15.05 Cr in Cash Cash per share = Cash / Shares outstanding = 15.05 Rs Cr/ 0.541 Cr = 27.80 Rs per share. CMP = 475, Last 12M EPS = 53.12 Reported P/E = 9.04 Considering cash, CMP = 475 - 28 = 447, Actual P/E = 8.41. Hence your P/E decreases and (P/E)/(G) improves. Hope I have answered all your queries.  Although it looks a bit cumbersome at the onset, however just put everything on excel and update twice a year. ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 23/Apr/2012 at 7:22pm
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Thanks for your help prudentinvestor, I could calculate these ratio by looking at edelweiss site. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2012 at 7:34pm
Hi prudentinvestor, I have one basic question here. If a company has a net cash with it, its actual PE will decrease resulting in improvement in PEG ratio. Can I apply the same concept to companies with debt (debt = net cash), in which case the PE will increase. i.e. For Setco Auto, Reported PE = 11.45 Net debt = 127.1 -3.83 ~ 123 crore Actual PE ratio comes to 15.26 Do you see any issue with the above approach (which combines Debt to get a higher value of PE, thereby increasing PEG ratio of highly leveraged companies). |
Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2012 at 8:03pm
No, the P/E won't increase in case of debt. First let's see, what's P/E is, it is the no of rupees you are willing to pay for each rupee profit of the company. Now, if the company has net cash i.e. cash & cash equivalents > debt. therefore out of the share price, you are already holding some part in cash in the companies books. Hence effectively what you pay for 1 Re profit of the company gets reduced. Like for Mayur, when you are paying Rs 475, you know you are getting Rs 28 per share cash, hence effectively you are paying Rs 475-28= Rs 447 for each share, which effectively reduces your P/E to 8.41 from the investor's point of view. Note that for all financial parameters, the P/E remains 9.04. Now for a company with positive net debt, i.e. debt > cash etc. the shareholder's do not have the added cushion on additional cash per share. Hence, if the stock quotes at 100, the effective and reported P/E are same. Debt holder's have a senior claim over equity. That means the company is obliged to pay debt holders (interest + principal payments) and preference coupon to preferred share holders. The PAT is the residual income after all liabilities which the owner's have full control to. Hence, when EPS is reported you have already considered the effect of all liabilities. Debt should be looked upon in terms of gearing ( debt:equity ratio) and company's capacity to service debt ( debt service ratio, interest coverage ratio etc. ) For example, if you look at RIL, they have negative net debt. They get huge loans at very low cost, and earn from parking their cash into high yielding fixed deposits. The interest arbitrage is helping them earning huge other incomes. So debt must be looked into from the company's and sector's perspective, relevant balance sheet metrics etc. So for your model, instead of increasing the effective P/E you can add effective scores ( on a scale of 1-5) on each parameter. Company's with high net debt will score lower. Based on the composite score on all parameters you can shortlist the top stocks. ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 30/Apr/2012 at 7:13pm
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Thanks prudentinvestor, Recently, while doing research on promising small/midcaps, I came across few nice scripts, with high ROE, not so high DE ratio, and stock having a dream run. Gujarat Reclaim and Rubber Products Gujarat Automotive Gears Aanjaneya Lifecare Innovative Tech Pack Hitjee/Basant Sir/PrudentInvestor and all senior TEDies, Do let me know what do you think of these companies? Just wanted to know what do you think about those company |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 1:25pm
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Latest portfolio: Sold Cravtex (very high D/E ratio), Bata and Page Industry (rich valuation, PEGY < 1). Added CRISIL, Indag Rubber, FAG Bearing, Aanjaneya Life, and Sharon Bioscience.
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Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 2:56pm
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I hope you are not making "Buy/Sell" decisions ONLY on the basis of mathematical criteria like P/E or PEG etc. A lot of cos available at apparently mouthwatering valuations turn out to be duds with hidden problems, which become known only in hindsight. Similarly many expensive stocks like Page remain expensive for several years, because the underlying growth continues unabated. ------------- When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée |
Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 4:45pm
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Hello subash, I will add on to what rapidriser said. Financials should be supportive of the story you identified or basing your investment upon. It is the sufficient but not the only necessary condition. Identifying a long term growth story which can grow sustainably without diluting capital much and generate returns - is the necessary condition. Good financials is the accompanying sufficiency which gives you confidence and margin of safety. Tell me in one line why Mayur Uni is your biggest holding ? ( It is mine too, I will tell my version later). ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 5:05pm
One-line answer: Consistent high ROE (~35+), and highest 1/PEGY ratio amongst all stock, combined with solid 70+% return last 2 year, Long answer: ROE-avg (last yr, current year, next 2 yr projected) = 39 <among the highest> 1/PEGY ratio = 4 <highest> Div yield = 2% EdelScore = 10 1 yr return = 70% 2 yr return = 173% |
Posted By: nazgul
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 5:25pm
Surprisingly you didn't say anything about the good quality management in place there. Just placing the trust in numbers is not always a wise thing to do. ------------- I don't do funds, i do fundas. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 5:41pm
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I though consistent high ROE of 35%+ year after year tells quite a lot about quality of management. Therefore didn't feel like retelling it. Dividend yield of 2% add icing to it. EdelScore of 10 also tells that the company is fundamentally good. My reverse question, how many such company (with high and consistent ROE, almost debt free, and still priced at such ridiculously low PEG ratio) exists in NSE/BSE. Do let me know and I will invest in each of them. I am seriously interested in finding such companies. PE expansion of such company are bound to happen in future and that will give a windfall of profit to shareholder. |
Posted By: nazgul
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 5:51pm
agar itna hi asan hota, to calculator wala bhagwan hota.  There are some aspects of management which numbers cant tell u. Its important to understand that numbers are based on past figures. We invest for future. Its not a big deal to a business to destroy its ROE with debt. One crazy idea of inorganic expansion and they can take loads of debt to the tune of 5% of book value and there goes your ROE and ROCE calculation. But thing is to understand why they decided to take it. Is the decision justified. It may not always be wrong but my experience says it most of the time is. Mayur uniquoters management added new plants in a sequential planned manner over the decade (dont remember the exact years). There is a fixed number of years gap between the commissioning of the plants. That kinda tells you about a predictable management thought process. I like such a predictable management that why its 20% of my portfolio. I am not trying to push you, just giving you my opinion. ------------- I don't do funds, i do fundas. |
Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 6:20pm
I knew you would reply something full of numbers. To me the story is most important. My reason : Mayur Uni can grow it sales 10 times from the present levels to the tune of 2500-3000 Cr in course of next 10 years. The Automobile OEM market alone is a 5000 Cr market. Only two players from Asia are in the race to export to majors like Ford, BMW. Chrysler is already a client. The management wants to derive 25% revenue from each sectors. So this will be at quarter of the revenue. Mayur is one of the biggest player supplying to the Footwear industry. It is actually a pseudo play on consumer names like Bata. Not even considering their backward integration in knitted fabrics. although at present this is more of an export requirement and will be used internally, however with sufficient capacity in future, this can be a revenue generator. And that market size is ~50,000 Cr in India alone. I do not discourage you to look at financials, but time and again I repeat those are not the only thing to look at. ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 7:41pm
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Thanks rapidriser/nazgul/prudentinvestor, Agree to the fact that pure math based decisions can't be the reason behind buying/selling stocks. Need to look at the fundamentals, and the underlying story behind it. Also good stocks like Page are always fairly priced (wrt ROE numbers). So low PEG ratio can't be the sole reason behind calling it overvalued. Having said that, whatever sold is sold, can't buy it back at same price. Will try to enter it at a later time. Also this transaction will help me find out whether selecting stocks based on purely PEG ratio is turning out to be beneficial or not. Made a most likely mistake (not a big mistake though). Again thanks for enlightening me  |
Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 8:43pm
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Beware of Anjaneya .Its a co which had manipulated the IPO n then gave good returns.
Setco cud be a psedo play on MCV/HCV boom in India together with fast expanding NHAI highways.Shall we furtehr increase our position in it?Pl give your analsis of it. FAG is another co to look out for. ------------- Share market is nothing but a game of temperament. Success mantra Right Price,Right Business,Patience, Conviction .Do not do panic buying or selling.It may be the only profession where inactivity pays |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 03/May/2012 at 10:19am
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If you just look at numbers, you can't predict when these good numbers will stop coming. For that you require understanding of Business, analysis of products,scuttlebutt,etc. (eg: Zydus was showing great numbers and all of a sudden the tide turned. Basantji got out bcz of his scuttlebutt approach, but those who kept relying on numbers are still caught.) Also why don't you trim the number of stocks in your portfolio to 10. Pick up your top 10 stocks and make a portfolio out of it. Some of your stocks have given good returns, still your overall portfolio return is only 7%. Thats bcz of too many stocks!! ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 04/May/2012 at 12:21pm
I have a reasonable explanation for that 7% gain. When I started investing around 5 month back, I started with stocks like sintex, and bharati shipyards, global offshore, thangamyl. Reached to a stage of -14% loss (during end of last year). Thanks to bull run of 2012, I trimmed my loss to almost 0. Then came March'12. Started reading value investing by Benjamin Graham. While searching for indianized version of Graham's value investing formula, I stumbled upon equitydesk. It was love at first sight . Went through the ROE/ROCE thread in the span of 3-4 days (1~2 hr daily), trying to understand each and every word. Switched to stocks which are widely discussed, and recommended at equitydesk. In 2 months found out that with the new stocks, I am able to bit sensex and MFs hands-down (I track my stock/MF performance daily). So sold my old stocks and non-tax saving MFs and converted them to high ROE stocks. In last 2 months I have doubled my equity portfolio size in a staggered manner. So the 7% gain that I have has come when sensex has gone down by 3-4%. So around 11% gain above sensex in 2-3 month is an excellent gain I guess. Need another post for describing my rational behind having so many stocks. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 17/May/2012 at 5:24pm
The story so far.
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Posted By: shri1074
Date Posted: 17/May/2012 at 8:49pm
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Hi, Subhash There are many stocks in your portfolio which are not discussed on equitydesk. Are the parameters you mentioned earlier only criteria to buy them? or you have done additional research? If yes Can you share it? |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 17/May/2012 at 11:13pm
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Hi Shri, I follow an multi-criteria analysis of stock before deciding which stock to buy. Quantitatively I prefer stocks which have ROE, ROCE ratio of 20+ for last 3-5 years, PEGY ratio < 1, low or zero Debt/equity ratio, and are preferably small/mid cap script. I also check for stocks which are giving really good return for last 1yr, and 2yr. CRISIL report score, edelscores are also good indicator of fundamental of the stocks. I also like stocks whose stock price movement are smooth (I mean not much volatile), i.e. Sharon Bioscience. (But I have stock like aanjanaeya pharma, which drops 20% a day, and rebounds 15% the next day). I am not at all good at qualitative analysis of stock. Writing essay, or deducing data from reading a stock story is the art, which is beyond my reach. So to compensate from that front, I read the posts of teddies seniors (like hitendra bhai, prudentinvetsor jee, Besant sir), analysis of PN Vijay (the only analyst I like in money control). Moneycontrol.com's comment section has lots of noise, but sometime you get good insight from some of the post. From these source I tries to deduce the goodness of a stock. I guess you are not interested on getting reasoning behind each individual stock. |
Posted By: dr.sandip
Date Posted: 17/May/2012 at 12:04pm
Dude, you deserve it after a lot of hardwork.. But unfortunately, I am not familiar with most of the stocks of yr portfolio except Lupin, Alembic & Ajanta pharma.. Being a doctor I know all these pharma companies are doing quite well.. Based on my observations Ajanta has been expanding it's product basket in a big way with lot of innovation compared with rest of the two...Never read financials of any of them..Just felt like sharing my observation with u while going through your posts... Regards Sandip ------------- Anything is possible because Everything is possible... |
Posted By: dr.sandip
Date Posted: 17/May/2012 at 12:20pm
I think La Opala should also be an interesting bet as a lifestyle product..It can be a part of over-all consumerism boom.. I do use its products, which are of good quality.. But need to study the company in depth.. ------------- Anything is possible because Everything is possible... |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 17/May/2012 at 12:26pm
Thanks Sandip, I have been hearing good things about Ajanta pharma. Planning to added more and make it amongst my top 3 holdings. Ajanta Pharma will be a multibagger for sure. By the way, any idea about Sharon Bio-science. It's stock prices growth is higher than ajanta pharma. It has been an unsung multi-bagger. Stock has good volume, and has a smooth movement. But not able to get much info on this pharma company. Any idea on what it make, and what is its future. |
Posted By: dr.sandip
Date Posted: 18/May/2012 at 12:50pm
Subash, I have absolutely no idea about Sharon bio-medicine..Have never heard the name of this pharma company.. May be its an 'unsung multibagger' as quoted by you..But I think the best way to get more info abt this company is to attend its AGM once..If u really want to keep it in your portfolio considering its multi-multibagger growth potential... ------------- Anything is possible because Everything is possible... |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 24/May/2012 at 3:13pm
| Added more Ajanta Pharma and Alembic Pharma. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 31/May/2012 at 11:36am
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What a day was yesterday. Added Ajanta Pharma @749. It fell quite a bit, to average it out bought it again @660, it fell again. Bought few more @614. Learned what it mean by catching a falling nice. Sold Lupin, CRISIL, and Vivimemd lab in the process. Today added more Sharon Bio-Medicine and Cochin Minerals. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2012 at 1:08pm
Latest story so far:
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Posted By: jayakrishnan
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2012 at 2:51pm
| try to reduce the size to less than 10. no company should have more than 15% in weightage. no sector should have more than 35%. follow above rules and can see yourself doing wonders |
Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2012 at 4:23pm
Number of companies in portfolio depends on the mindset of individual investor. I think the key question should be the capital allocation percentage.  ------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2012 at 4:24pm
If he has fine times more confidence in say Ajanta than in FAG than its fine.  ------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: shri1074
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2012 at 8:06pm
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I did not understand motivation behind allocating such a high % of folio to Ajanta at such high prices. One month back it was a much better bargain. |
Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2012 at 9:12pm
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Unless a stock has fallen to ridiculous levels due to short term reasons it is not wisely to allocate a high percentage of capital. With rise in share value, some stocks will rise disproportionately to cover larger %age of portfolio even if you start allocating similar %age of capital in the beginning. A good bet at current levels is Unichem Labs and not Ajanta Pharma. ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2012 at 11:14am
Hi jayakrishnan, I track around 40 midcap/smallcap stock. So I end up having large number of scripts in my portfolio. But at the end of the day, those stocks with higher conviction end up moving up. I am intending to have 15-25 stocks in my portfolio. Peter Lynch used to have more than 100 of stocks in his portfolio and still used to beat street like anything. I am a bottom-up investor. I don't bother about sector, or sectoral story. I mostly look at the story of the companies. I love to invest in star performer in absolutely boring industry. (i.e Mayur Uniquoter in Synthetic Leather, or Cochin Minerals in rare earth and rutile industry). |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2012 at 11:33am
OK, here is the story. I had bought Ajanta in 400+, 500+, and 600+ range. When it rose very sharply, I felt there is some sort of PE re-rating happening (One need experience to separate wheat from chaff). So not to miss the train I bought some more at 700+. And then it fell like anything. So to reduce my buying price, I added more Ajanta Pharma in 660+, 610+ range. So it ended up taking around 25% in my portfolio. So when it come to around 630-640 range, sold all of Ajanta Pharma which I had bought at 400-600 range. In the process I increased both my realized gain and average buying price of ajanta pharma. I am still believing the Ajanta Pharma story, and hence planning to add more of it if it reaches 550-600 level. I believe that in 2 year time it should give around 50-100% return even at current price. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2012 at 11:37am
In Pharma space, there are bunch of stocks with good future scope. Vikram Thermo, Dishman Pharma, Natco Pharma are the one I am tracking. |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2012 at 12:29pm
Good that you have realised this mistake. I also went through same phase where i used to chase stocks going up fearing that i would miss the train only to see them come down. Its the adrenalin rush that you need to control and it'll get under control only with time as you gain more experience in market. Always remember, 99% of the times market will give you a second chance. ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2012 at 1:12pm
Yeah it was a mistake, but not the major one. Even if I just invested in Ajanta Pharma @700+, I am sure I wouldn't have been at loss year later. The major mistake I made was is trying make my portfolio look like some one else (whose name I don't want to reveal). And got to know from some other forum that he has offloaded his entire ajanta pharma in this bull run. I didn't have plan to make ajanta pharma my top holding to begin with, before I decided to make my portfolio look like him. Lesson learned, never ever try to imitate anyone, however great he might be. Remember the great saying in Gita that its is great to follow one's own karma, rather than imitate others, however great it be. |
Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2012 at 9:13pm
The whole problem in imitating someone is that you lack conviction on your own bets. So first hand research is a must. As he mentioned, his target was met well over and exiting with a four-bagger in 2-3 years is an awesome feat. I bought Ajanta @200 in my brother's portfolio and booked profits @ 550 levels, where it seemed necessary. As I mentioned in the Ajanta thread, if you do some research yourself and look at the capex planned aheaed with NDAs in pipeline for US and European markets, can change the lot for a small cap company like Ajanta. I entered with around 12% of portfolio at 550. So in next 5 years it can catapult itself to a different leagues altogether. As I mentioned earlier too, for long term portfolio, the reason to exit should be a strong one, and intermittent price volatility cannot be one. One needs to drill down deep and build conviction. Only then one can ignore daily price levels and temptations to sell. I believe post the ex-date, Ajanta will face lot of selling pressures and I will be adding again in levels of 250-275 (split adjusted) or less. Plan to hold this, until there is some drastic change in fundamentals. ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: ameydesai
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2012 at 10:58am
------------- Arise, Awake and Stop Not till the Goal is reached |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2012 at 11:28am
Hi ameydesai, As for MCX, no data is available at moneycontrol website. So can't analyze MCX. |
Posted By: ameydesai
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2012 at 6:45pm
there you go - http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/Company/Multi-Commodity-Exchange-of-India-Ltd/534091 - http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/Company/Multi-Commodity-Exchange-of-India-Ltd/534091 I am pasting the key financial ratios as below
------------- Arise, Awake and Stop Not till the Goal is reached |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2012 at 6:56pm
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ROE-avg ~ 20 PE ~ 17 1/PEGY ~ 1.17 |
Posted By: ameydesai
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2012 at 4:38pm
with ROE ~17, 1/PEGY ~1.17 would it be worthwhile looking at ? ------------- Arise, Awake and Stop Not till the Goal is reached |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2012 at 5:15pm
Hi Ameydesai, If investment decisions could have been made just by looking at numbers than mathematicians would be ruling the world of equities. So pure PEGY (or to be fair mathematically calculated number) based decisions are not at all advisable. The reason being simple, these number quantify history, and stock market pays for future earnings. However last (3-5 year ROCE, next 1-2 year ROCE), and 1/PEGY ratio can be combined to screen scripts for further analysis of them. Coming to MCX, I was never interested in it, and hence haven't analyzed it. So I can't comment much on it. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2012 at 10:41am
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PN Vijay's multibagger - Aanjaneya Life http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/pn-vijay39s-multibaggers-aanjaneya-life-tilaknagar-inds_715997.html |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2012 at 1:37pm
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Got rid of low conviction stocks like La Opala RG, Goodyear (Delisting is out-of-fashion these days), Reduced number of scipts to 14 (from all time high of 23). Learning: Having a concentrated portfolio requires higher amount of conviction, which get developed with experience. Latest story
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Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2012 at 10:40pm
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Good going on concentrating your holding, please explain reasons for high conviction in Cochin Minerals and Alembic Pharma. I would allocate a higher amount to Balkrishna, great story. And what about adding a rate sensitive like banking/nbfc ? ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2012 at 12:24pm
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Sorry prudentinvestor, Pasting links rather than giving a write-up. I don't have a write up with me. Cochin Minerals:- 1> Reserve of Rs 92 per share for share price of 322. Effective share price ~230 (effective PE ~ 3.15). 2> Rutile, rare earth is an absolutely boring industry. Cochin mineral is the only listed player in this space. 3> Have increased there EPS by some 1000% or so in last year, expected to continue this momentum in coming quaters (albeit with a much saner speed) http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/recommendations/buy-cochin-minerals-targetrs-342-firstcall-research_713133.html http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/tater-picks-cochin-minerals-to-buydips_575383.html Alembic Pharma, Have invested here after PN Vijay recomended this as a multibagger, with a price target of 100. I will be very happy if it reaches 75 level. Plus one/two research report telling upto 90% upside potential. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/stocks-views/alembic-pharma-has-targetrs-80-pn-vijay_690138.html http://poweryourtrade.moneycontrol.com/plus/multibagger/multibagger_promo.php?autono=2451 Absolutely no plan for adding any rate sensitive sector like Banking, Infra, Engineering. I absolutely detest congress govt, and its policies, and whatever stocks gets affected by it. They have amazing gift of touching gold and turning it to soil. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2012 at 9:05am
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Please do not pay too much attention to what is being said and targeted on TV. These generic advice have a history of doing more harm than good. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 22/Jun/2012 at 8:28pm
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Like what Basantji said, do not pay much heed to what is being said on tv/newspapers as most of these are paid reports to boost some stocks etc. Like Peter Lynch says, you should be able to explain your holding in quick time and that too very lucidly understandable to all. Once you drill down that deep conviction comes automatically. Also as Fisher says and Basantji too mentions, the scuttlebutt approach (to the max extent possible) helps you have a lead over others. Last time I went to a Bata store I talked with the manager about suppliers ( enquiry about Mayur Uniquoters). I talked to the people who came to recruit MBA grads from DFM Foods at our college. Once you build a holistic approach, it is not that difficult to concentrate. Valuation isn't the only thing. My long discussions with a paint shop retailer (major one) led me to sell of Akzo Nobel. So these are aspects no media report/ newspaper will lead you to. ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: coolcarney
Date Posted: 22/Jun/2012 at 8:44pm
| Even the current professor in my mba class says, "Please stop listening to Udayan. Don't sell yourself to media." |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 25/Jun/2012 at 11:56am
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prudentinvestor/coolcarney, Fully agreed with you. But the thing is that, amongst all of the so-called expert in inidan market, I somehow like PN Vijay, and have been at profit after following few of his advices (after doing due analysis at my end). I see it in a slightly different way also. If it turn out good, happy, no issue. If it fizzles out, I would learn something out of it. All of advises of you should do this, you should do that, are better learned if you actually see and feel it. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 26/Jun/2012 at 12:00pm
prudentinvestor, What is your feedback on DFM food. I am tracking it for quite a good amount of time, but found this stock to be way too volatile. And DFM food competing in a segment, where it is very difficult to differentiate, and where FMCG big boys can out-advertise there product. |
Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 26/Jun/2012 at 7:43pm
DFM foods has revamped it's business model, sold off the low margin businesses and fully concentrating on Crax. Now for the price points it operates in and the skus it has, it do not at all compete with FMCG majors. You will hardly find it in malls but it is rampant in across smaller kirana shops of Delhi NCR. The company has huge demand but its sales are not growing that much because of capacity constraints. Now the company has started capacity expansion. Also it is at present mostly present in and around Delhi. So they are taking a cautious approach to test waters in expanding geographically. That is the reason for hiring MBAs. In absence of brand moat, it is very difficult to pass on higher input costs, as a result of which margins got hit in last quarter of fy12. However, with process efficiencies and higher production company will be able to realize better sales and volumes. Given the small size, i am not comfortable paying 20 times. i sold out earlier around 240, and will enter again if it is available at 10-13 times earnings. ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2012 at 7:11pm
prudentinvestorjee, Quoting an old post of yours, and thanking you for your feedback. Days or two back, I tried creating an excel sheet with 2 columns of Investment rationals and Risks, and started adding few stocks like Mayur Uniqouter, Granules. After adding few stocks (thanks to one of HDFC security research report and few other sources) I realized the importance of knowing the story. What I realized is that getting the story is not a tough as it appears (thanks to internet and google baba). Second thing is that numbers, ratios forms a part of the story (mostly depicting the past and present). The story of how the company is being managed tells something about the future of the stocks. Thirdly getting such stock story is hugely enriching in terms of knowledge. Also knowledge of stock story brings better confidence on the investment decisions you make (Freedom from dependence on Udayan Mukherjee and his team's recos). By reading the story I can now tell the difference between the business of Ajanta Pharma, Granules, and Dishman Pharma, which were not the case few days back. Thanks for your enlightenment. After making my spreadsheet, I can share it with anyone who wants the same.
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Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2012 at 7:50pm
Great going Subhashji, The whole purpose of TED is share insights and cumulatively discuss stock scenarios for informed investment decision. 'Mayur' is a typical Peter Lynch story and I am enjoying the ride. Whenever it tanks for any undue reason, I will be ready to lap up more. Also if you closely follow a story sudden ups and downs won't bother you, and you will be able to consistently hold on to your bets for richer gains. ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 12/Jul/2012 at 5:42pm
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Exited low conviction stocks like Cochin Minerals, Aanjaneya Lifecare, Sharon Bioscience, Setco, Munjal. Added more Kaveri Seeds, Balakrishna, Indag, Kilburn Engineering. Added small quantity of Atul auto, Mazda, Dishman Pharma, Granules, and Astral Poly. Latest story:-
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Posted By: itpro
Date Posted: 12/Jul/2012 at 11:06am
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Hi Subhash,
Can you let me know what are your thoughts on Kaveri Seeds ?
Regards
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Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2012 at 5:57pm
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Hi itpro, Kaveri Seeds is producer of premium quality of seeds with strong focus on RnD. It has a diverse portfolio of seeds for varied variant of corps. The business where it operates have very strong entry barriers, so it doesn't face any strong competition. (It might be unbelievable, but it takes 5-6 years to create a new variety of seed). MICROTEK division which produces micronutrients, organic, and bio products has started giving result. The ROE/ROCE ratio has been hovering around 20% for last 3 years. It doesn't have huge share in seed market, and majorly caters to south indian states. So there is a huge potential to grow in future. Management seems to be good folks. They increased their stake in comapny by 4% to 64% in Feb'12. The funky side of business is that they earn almost 50-60% EPS in June quarter. The EPS for rest of quarters are not worth looking, as they contributes ~10% of EPS each. The risk being the erratic weather-god, politics and govt policy. I am quite bullish on it. It has been within my top 5 holdings, and have been adding small quantity of it in a staggered manner. |
Posted By: xpresso
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2012 at 7:02pm
| Is there a possibility that Govt may distribute free seeds before elections ? Then the entire business model or premium seeds may go for a toss. Just a wild thought. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2012 at 7:31pm
There is a distinct difference between normal and hybrid seed (the later requiring substantial RnD and have required traits which the normal variants doesn't have). So hybrid seed can't be substituted via normal seed. Secondly govt doesn't have capability of safely storing non-seed quality food grains, majority of which are rotting in super pathetic condition in govt store-houses. So there is very very remote possibility that they can store seed quality seeds (which requires superior control of temperature, humidity, addition of pesticides, and superior pest control). Thirdly distributing free seeds in small scale is going on almost every time. Doing it in a massive scale so that it can substantially reduce Kaveri Seed's share is of less possibility. Fourthly giving loan waiver is much easier, simpler solution, which requires less pain in govt side, and gives much psychological feel good factor in farmer side. Point #5: These policies will have severe political ramifications as it is involved with agriculture and farmer. Hence any sane politician will think 10 times before venturing in this side (what if the seed given didn't give the required result?) Having said that Indian politicians have undue distinction of screwing of almost everything they touch, and they can create havoc with Kaveri seed with tweaking of policy. That is one negative point for investing in Kaveri Seeds. |
Posted By: rinkumalpani
Date Posted: 17/Jul/2012 at 8:32pm
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Hi,
Are you still tracking cochin mineral? The stocks fallen like anything.. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 17/Jul/2012 at 12:32pm
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Nopes, I am not tracking Cochin Minerals. Thankfully I exited with some minor loss. Messages at MC message board are full of theories on why this sudden fall (starting from drop in rutile price by 7%, age old CBI probe, and what not). |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 17/Jul/2012 at 12:42pm
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can you pls post the link frm where u track daily prices of these commodities.. ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 17/Jul/2012 at 10:57am
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Hi Rohit, I don't track price of any commodity. I just got to know this price fall theory while browsing messages at MC message board. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2012 at 9:34pm
Got rid of all medium/low conviction stocks. Trying to concentrate my holding with high conviction long-term stocks (with excellent fundamentals, and above-average expected return).
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Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2012 at 11:31pm
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What was the reason behind exiting Setco?any views on igarashi motors ? ------------- Share market is nothing but a game of temperament. Success mantra Right Price,Right Business,Patience, Conviction .Do not do panic buying or selling.It may be the only profession where inactivity pays |
Posted By: pikrohit
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2012 at 2:36pm
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Hello Subhash,
I read the whole topic today. Its amazing how quickly you have learned (from looking only at numbers) and transformed you portfolio (to believing in the stories). The best part was the reply from prudentinvestor about the story of mayur and why he believed in that story.
I also opened my demat 3 months back n jumped in to buy stocks like AB Nuvo, Hindalco, DLF, Lanco infra. But then I started reading the posts on this site and slowly booked some losses and then transformed by portfolio. Although I still have ICICI (gain 7%) and axis (loss 10%) from my old portfolio, my largest holding is Mayur.
Long live this site :)
I have been thinking of buying the annual package of Basant corner but cant decide because of my small portfolio size.
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Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2012 at 3:33pm
That is because I found Mayur, Indag, Granules, Dishman, and Alembic far more attractive than setco. I am in the process of concentrating my portfolio, and hence selling less convincing story and buying the one whose story seems better to me. I am not tracking igarshi motors, so can't comment on it. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2012 at 3:47pm
Hi pikrohit, Thanks for your feedback. Yeah, I have turned myself into a student of investing, and learning new thing with passage of time. (I learned difference between consolidated and standalone result yesterday only, you see how ill-learned I am). Advices from prudent_investor, hitesh bhai, and others have helped me look at investing from a completely different angle. ROE/ROCE thread of TED is the best thread, and I have learned the basic lessons of investing from there. Having said that, I want to emphasize few aspects, which people tend to forget. Selecting good stocks are just one part of investing. 1. Having a systematic, disciplined approach (like SIP, or modified form of SIP) is another angle which people tends to forget. 2. Having patience, and resisting oneself from doing large number of trades is another aspect, which I am trying to master these days. (Why enrich the broker with brokerage) 3. Strong believe in stocks and story can also helps you a good way (provided the story don't turn sour with time). It help you buy the stock when it corrects a bit. 4. People will tell when to buy a stock, they usually forget to tell when to exit. You need to find a way to exit stock, and switching to a stock with better story. Wishing you all the best for your investing sojourn. Hope you enjoy the ride as much as the destination. |
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2012 at 6:10pm
| Point no. 2 is most important and one of the greatest traits of a great value investor. |
Posted By: prudentinvestor
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2012 at 1:00am
Great points Subashji. It's really admirable how quickly you have moved on to a concentrated portfolio. It is actually very difficult to practice. Like what Basantji mentioned, why not to look for new ideas always. The best investment may be the one's from your own holding. Let us all wholeheartedly thank Basantji for giving us this wonderful avenue and sharing his pearls of wisdom with us. Long live TED ! ------------- "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out..” - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2012 at 6:40pm
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Thanks prudentinvestorjee. I 100% agree that TED has been the school where I learned the basic of investing, and Basantji has done an excellent work by creating such wonderful avenue. I track the performance of my stocks vs SENSEX on a daily basis. Before the exercise of concentrating my portfolio to choosen few, the delta between my portfolio gain and SENSEX used to be decently moving, with low volatility; it used to give me a better future visibility of my portfolio performance - sensex performance. Concentrated portfolio (that too with full of midcap stocks) tends to have higher volatility wrt to sensex. So the volatility/beta has increased. So folks with allergy to volatility should be little bit wary of concentrated portfolio. I am yet to get a feel about the change in alpha portion of it, as it requires bit longer observation time. Hopefully it will be better than my good old diversified portfolio. |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2012 at 1:05am
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Another advise i'll give is to stop monitoring daily performance of ur portfolio. Daily, Market gyrations affect ur decisions. ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: coolcarney
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2012 at 7:41pm
Couldn't agree more! Thanks.
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Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2012 at 10:56pm
Daily tracking doesn't implies it will effect one's decision. Agreed it can influence one's decision to some extend, but this can be solved by being disciplined (rule #1 of investing). On the other side, daily tracking gives me enough data for analyzing and having data driven decisions. One example of such recent decision happened when my stock performance vs sensex performance dropped by whoping 8% within a week or so, so recharged my portfolio with little bit more buying. In a week it came back to where it was ... :) Daily performance tracking also help me judge my portfolio strategy, and understand which type of portfolio gives which type of return. To conclude, gathering more data is not bad if you can analyze to extract meaningful data. I think I can do that, and hence following that strategy. Another aspect of investing, which most of us forget is, that it has quite a bit related to one's own behavior, discipline, risk tolerance, risk taking behavior, and so on. So understanding oneself, one's plus point, minus points and tweaking investment strategies based on this is a must. |
Posted By: subash1983
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2012 at 1:31pm
Tweaked my portfolio to ride on midcap pharma boom. Hoping for a smooth and safe ride :)
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