Is Nov. 11 another March 09?
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Stock Synopsis
Forum Discription: A bried discussion of companies on very specific matters. Normally this is the prelude for further research as always members would be discussing quality companies with good management only
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=3479
Printed Date: 21/Apr/2025 at 1:19am
Topic: Is Nov. 11 another March 09?
Posted By: manishdave
Subject: Is Nov. 11 another March 09?
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2011 at 8:41am
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To me it is. Lots of things are similar. Then Mortgage crisis. Now Euro crisis. Then FII selling, now FII selling. Then Derivative concern. Now Power sector concern. Sintex then touched 75. This time it touched 80. Ofcource after split but profit is double too. PM MMS this time also PM MMS. Many companies have similar valuations. It should be interesting comparison. Similarities and differences. |
Replies:
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2011 at 9:36am
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Many margin calls seem to be getting triggered. Many darlings of past few months are locked in LC. I have not witnessed march 09 but this selling will continue i guess. Its indeed scary.Is it time to be greedy or we need to wait for the things to settle a bit ?
------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2011 at 11:04am
Where were you in march 09? read the TED posts of those times especially on the titan thread ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2011 at 11:09am
No need to be either scared or greedy. Just keep buying slowly as the stocks of your interest come down to attractive levels. ------------- When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2011 at 11:19am
Thank you sir. I'll go through them. I was doing my engineering during that period and i was not at all associated to markets. I just knew that there is something called recession going on which was hampering our placements.  I have gone through many posts on different threads from 2006 to 2011. The one which you had written "Learnings from bprevious bear markets" is too good. I got the feeling of how things fell apart. But to read and get the first hand experience is a bit different. ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 1:01pm
Basantji, posts from which period do i read from titan thread? Around oct-nov 2008 when the sell-off took place? It'll be helpful if you can let me know some approx period ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 2:32pm
Suppose i have 1000 shares of Hawkins purchased @ 1500. (just for the sake of assuming  )Now the market is falling apart. Suppose Hawkins slides to 1300. I fear that this selling will continue for few more weeks and if that does Hawkins might slip to 750. I am damn sure if this happens i'll buy Hawkins. But i don't have any cash to do that. I'm already down by Rs. 2,00,000. If Hawkins goes to 750, i'll be in 7,50,000 loss and i'll not have any cash to take advantage of this opportunity. So should i liquidate my holdings in Hawkins and wait for it to drop to 750 with Rs 13 lakh in hand? And what if after i get out @ loss it goes to 1600 ? I'm facing the same dilemma right now and i'm sure many will be. I'm confused whether i should get out at loss and wait for collapse to get over (which i'm sure i'll not be able to spot. To be frank no one will be able to spot the bottom) and then start buying or just stay invested. Another dilemma is that if i decide to stay invested no matter how much the market goes down, will i be able to handle the pain when i'm 60-70 % into loss? I guess many of the seniors who have witnessed 2008 bear market would have been confronted with the same issues during that time. P.S: I'm not invested into Hawkins in that proportion. I have used it just as an example. ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 2:40pm
learning to stomach losses is another aspect which investors need to learn. Traders need to learn to cut the losses as early as possible. One has to first decide whether he is an investor or a trader and then devise the strategy. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 3:06pm
I like to call myself an investor, but the losses during the last week are severely testing my resolve to stay invested.  However, i must say that 2008-09 was a great learning experience (with extremely high tuition fees I might add). This time I am ready with my list of stocks and the price levels below which I will start investing, and how much to invest at each fall from those levels. Let's see how it works out. Luckily this time I am sitting on decent profits in most of my investments in spite of this fall, and I have adequate cash to invest if markets tank. ------------- When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée |
Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 4:24pm
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This is a normal market cycle wherein we seem to be near the bottom of the cycle considering the valuations at which some good mid and small cap cos. are trading at present, almost at historical low valuations....... If the pace of this fall continues like this then we will have these stocks trading at absurd valuations which is highly unlikely.....The fall is accentuated by domestic goverment's mismanagement of economy where it has failed to let the country exploit its true potential of standing out amidst global uncertainities..... The positive is that expectations are so low that if politics of country permit some reforms like FDI in m.retail and all we can have new sectors emerge as leaders of next bull run. We need to concentrate on long term investment rather than short to mid term gains as mid.term is very uncertain.... Its the best time ever to pick good investment opportunities.
Rgds.
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Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 4:43pm
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Companies with revenues in $$ new leaders? Valuations are absurd already. Scores of good companies available at p/e of 3-5. Yield 4-6% is norm in midcap. No new supply of paper. many promoters are buying. For us Europe is not the problem but one european controlling India is the problem. Indian economy was considered caged tiger in early nineties. This govt. does not like unleashed tiger so they are trying to cage the tiger!! |
Posted By: kmp_saij
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 5:01pm
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In this time, People with money and daring will be rewarded. ------------- Own whatever’s feared, shun whatever’s beloved. |
Posted By: vijayd74
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 7:21pm
Hi, can you name a few of these Small caps and Mid-caps where we can have them on our radar as well for buying opportunities
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Posted By: excel_monkey
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 7:37pm
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Warning: Now these are my hawa hawai opinion
I think markets could move down further as one could see more issues cropping up for banking sector mind that real estate prices have not corrected yet (housing loans) No orders for the infrastructure companies But true some of the mid caps in small sector could have bottomed out ------------- I have a vested interest in the stocks I discuss, therefore I would request you to kindly consider my comments with a pinch of salt and do your own due diligence |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 7:44pm
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I think the market has fallen only by 20%. It's 16 K now and was 20 K a few months back. This seems like regular price fluctuation to me. Remember the market was 8 K just a few years back?
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Posted By: tyasha
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 7:45pm
Ha Ha!! Good one ------------- Oh if only I had a time machine! |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 10:06pm
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Finally somebody has started working!!! http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/cnbc-tv18-comments/infra`s-big-pushgovt-expedites-clearance-for-3-projects_620474.html Banking is overdone. NPA problem is not as big as mkt fears IMO. For example SEBs. Yes they are in a mess, but they have monopoly. So they can and will raise rates. It is not idle assets. Aviation is a problem but for whole banking sector it is not as big and there are some assets. As I understand Mallya has mortgage many things. So it is more of a problem of Mallya than banks. Some NPA increase is expeted and for banking sector it is part of doing business. Real estate is problem more for builders because cash check ratio. And there is no 100% financing like USA. I would be worried for banking if there is lets say huge over capacity in steel or textile then it can not be cured for years and it can be huge. So it can be a seasonal problem rather than structural problem. |
Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 10:38pm
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Manish, Very cogently put across. CLSA has come out with a report eulogizing India growth inspite of Govt & consumption story strong with good demographic dividend.Remain invested & keep on buying specific stocks Those who are interested PM their mail ids.l ------------- Share market is nothing but a game of temperament. Success mantra Right Price,Right Business,Patience, Conviction .Do not do panic buying or selling.It may be the only profession where inactivity pays |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 9:57am
Sorry I missed this. But I have started third inning in Sintex. Converted Glaxo Cons to Sintex. Sintex moves between P/E of 4-15 and growing consistently. Will start selling at p/e of 12 and it will go there. In PSU I like Dena bank and Bank of baroda Allahabad Bank etc. Dena bank p/e is < 3. |
Posted By: bobbyusd
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 10:27am
Sir, where do you get the historical PE range from.
Regards
Bobby
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Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 18/Nov/2011 at 11:09am
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I track sintex so have vague idea. It may not be exact but mostly it is like that. for precise numbers you can look at the chart and see peak, bottoms and divide by earnings on that date. Point is nothing wrong with the business but available cheap. |
Posted By: pamswam
Date Posted: 19/Nov/2011 at 11:46am
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Just getting back to the topic of "fear for losing more on the portfolio" on top of value already eroded. We all know times are tough in general and markets all over the world are in negative territory for quite a while. No body know when markets will turn around or at the least be stable. Did anybody thought of or implemented any hedging strategy? which in my opinion is very much essential tool, even for the long-term investor who can stomach short-term fluctuations in the market. ------------- One cannot travel an alternate path of the past and as well know the path future will take! |
Posted By: rohit1889
Date Posted: 20/Nov/2011 at 3:33pm
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These are the quotes from one of Basantji's thread which i like the most:
Sectors which move the fastest and the fiercest in the bull markets lose the most in the ensuing bear market. Companies that are leaders in a bull market do not see their prices come for years in the ensuing bear market If we go by above logic and during the next 1 year we see some major event happening like double dip in US or collapse of EU and we see a major bear market like 2008, will the same happen with leaders of this bull market: TITAN PAGE TTK HDFC NESTLE broadly speaking consumption theme stocks? The Infra story in India is still intact but its over from the stock market perspective is what Basantji told me when i asked him about his views on Infra sector. Will the same happen w.r.t consumption story ? ------------- If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored. |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 21/Jan/2012 at 3:44pm
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Banking should lead next market. We have seen the bottom. Lets see how high can we go. Our main problems were political situation, Rupee drop and high crude. Political situation will improve somewhat(not whole lot), Rupee already recovered substantially and I expect crude to come down more than most expect. Reason: US NG price is at 2002 level and BTU ratio of crude/gas which historically was 6 is 37(!!) right now. It can not stay so low. Gas can not go up too high so crude has to come down. Once more LNG terminals takes place, US can export gas, some of which they are burning right now. With this much ratio more vehicles will run on Gas and lower demand of crude. Plus FRACKING technology is getting matured, which has got whole new opening for oil/gas sector. This technology is game changer for world energy market. Arunachal Pradesh has great potential for shale gas and it can be an unbelievably huge positive Black Swan for India, not just stock market. It may take a decade or two. Huge gas discovery in Mozambique is also another positive Black Swan for India in next 5-6 years. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 21/Jan/2012 at 5:47pm
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I think the setup is for a very strong small and midcap rally (in good companies with visible growth and good balance sheets or companies which have been beaten down out of proportion to their problems) where these sectors will outperform the large caps with wide margin. This could be a case of the tail wagging the dog. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 03/Feb/2012 at 7:12pm
| Now we will see targets on higher side and "THE GREAT INDIAN STORY"!! I am so vindicated!! The best return in markets are made when nobody believes what you are convinced about!!! I had purchased calls for NIFTY, Banks and some other stocks and they are multiplying every week. Players keep on waiting for correction and that is not happening. Banking is and will take charge of first leg. |