Would you rather be smart or lucky?
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Trading Psychology
Forum Discription: Discuss the psychological aspects of trading such as fear, greed and discipline. Why stocks are bought like perfumes and not groceries.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2930
Printed Date: 26/Jun/2024 at 9:45pm
Topic: Would you rather be smart or lucky?
Posted By: chimak10
Subject: Would you rather be smart or lucky?
Date Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 12:29pm
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I think people ignore one of the most required thing in life LUCK. be it of being in the right place at the right time or whatever.
Now i am an atheist of the upmost kind and i didn't use to believe in luck and all those things. If you look at the dart board folio then the best returns were given by basantjee's pick and the worst and continuous worst returns were given by my pick. All the picks were done randomly can anyone explain this? |
Replies:
Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 9:05pm
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Chimak, Its very short time to measure the luck factor unless you have assigned some time frame to the dart board portfolio. Luck is very important to get lucky most of the times if not every time. ------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 9:34pm
If given an option of blessing between being Smart or Being Lucky, I will choose the later 
------------- Fundamentalists and anticipators may have difficulties with risk control because a trade keeps looking ‘better’ the more it goes against them....Ed Seykota |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 6:20am
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Getting successful once is luck doing it regularly is skill. If you believe this you would rather be smart then lucky. A smart man (good judgment and skill) will always be called lucky because he is being successful A lucky man never hits the jackpot five times a in a row but a smart man can pick out five consecutive multibaggers ! To me luck is a hindsight name for success. That is why I belive that all market timers and traders are lucky but if they have done it over a period of time then they are skillful rather then lucky question is who determines the period of time?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 9:31am
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In markets I would prefer not lucky rather than lucky. Reason is if you are lucky, you think you are smart. And you may lose 10 times more than your gain being lucky. I have seen many one year wonders and then they can not come out of that shell for life. For example, if you made your first huge gain in sugars you can not abandon that sector for life and become sugar champion. But meanwhile you can lose many opportunities while sugar sector is doing nothing. |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 3:41pm
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I completely agree with what basant bhai and manish bhai have said.
Yes smartness is very important. Skill is also important. And having the strong understanding of what you are doing is also important. Hard work is very important. I am not trying to say basant bhai is just lucky otherwise i wouldn't be in this forum reading his posts. or ask him questions about equities and companies and wait for his opinion. Obviously he is smarter and more intelligent then sundry mungeri's like me. My queri is more like why i lost out??????? i have been loser in many of life situation without any of my normal stupidity and without my fault. Still i won't discount LUCK or destiny or whatever you name it, Be it born smart or intelligent as buffet calls wired certain way being logical and rational ........being healthy.......or winning ovarian lottery by having rich or smart parents etc etc........having environment or situation that somehow helps you. Or one of the most dangerest thing of having the balls of steel. The dart board point still remains as enigma cause everyone picked stock at random and we had strong tailwind in last 2 months still i lost out.  and basant bhai made the biggest money. 
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Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 4:49pm
Chimak Why  ?
Cheer up Buddy. Luck changes now and then, So I think you should not worry much about it. Just keep on doing your thing which you do the best. I can quote Gita's most famous Shloka but I wont, cause certain things are easy to understand and hard to follow. But hey, don't worry too much, it can over shadow your wisdom. Cheers, K. ------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: 1234
Date Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 5:20pm
| i wouid like to be lucky in matters of finance, fitness and females in all other matters of life i want to be smart. |
Posted By: LearningToFly
Date Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 5:41pm
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I am not that ambitious. Finance will do just fine.
------------- Success... at all cost. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 6:04pm
Good luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 6:08pm
You need to listen to this song here: http://www.seykota.com/tribe/Music/Say%20How%20It%20Is.mp3 - Say How it Is (mp3 file) |
Posted By: bihisello
Date Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 6:34pm
What is left to be smart for? 
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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 7:34pm
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okay bought all the argument that you have to work so hard that you will get lucky.
I had just read the sameer arora talk in ET summit that he was in the right place at the right time about the stock market. Now still there is a little amount of something special that you need for the success. |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 9:04pm
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Having seen more cases to do with luck than brains in the stock market,
i would stick to having lots of luck.
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