TFCIL - tourism finance corp ltd.
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Stock Synopsis
Forum Discription: A bried discussion of companies on very specific matters. Normally this is the prelude for further research as always members would be discussing quality companies with good management only
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2820
Printed Date: 21/Apr/2025 at 3:02pm
Topic: TFCIL - tourism finance corp ltd.
Posted By: hit2710
Subject: TFCIL - tourism finance corp ltd.
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2010 at 7:55pm
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TFCIL—TOURISM FINANCE CORPORATION LTD. CMP 28.5, MARKET CAP AROUND 226 CRORES, BV 38 ,P/BV 0.7, NIM for fy 10 was 3.5% The company was promoted by various financial institutions and banks to provide finance to projects realted to tourism sector. Currently the promoters include: IFCI—33.04% SBI – 09.19% LIC -- 07.70% BOI – 4.70% OTHERS INCLUDING UNITED INSURANCE CO(1.75%), ORIENTAL INSURANCE CO.(1.29%) TOTAL PROMOTER HOLDING IS 57.55%
Dividend for FY 10 was Rs 1.2 per share and at around 28.50, it amounts to around 4% div yield. EXISTING PROMOTERS WERE ALLOTTED 1.33 CRORE SHARES AT A PRICE OF 48 IN FEB 08, WHICH EXPLAINS THE HIGHER EQUITY FROM MARCH 08. IFCI RAISED ITS STAKE IN THE COMPANY BY ABOUT 2%(16.4 LAC SHARES) THROUGH MARKET PURCHASE BETWEEN 26 NOV 08 TO 29 MARCH 2010. DURING Q4 FY 10, GROSS NPA REDUCED TO 2%, DOWN FROM 3.6% FROM EARLIER QTR. IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, IT WAS 14 CRORES. NET NPA IS ZERO. CAPITAL ADEQUACY AT AROUND 58% AS AT END OF MARCH 10 QUARTER. New Development: TFCIL is planning to enter infrastructure project financing business especially power project financing. Normally, TFCI provides long term funding usually for 10-12 years, and hence it is better suited to finance power projects which have a long gestation period. POSITIVES Good growth expected due to credit demand from hotel sector and infra financing foray Net NPA zero Good dividend yield around 4% Cheap valuations at around 0.7 times book value and a PE of around 7 RISKS: Prolonged recession could lead to rise in NPAs Factors which can affect the tourism industry could indirectly affect the company’s performance. TECHNICAL VIEW: After posting a high of 55.50 in Jan 08, the stock fell down and formed a low of around 12.5 (double bottom) in Oct 08 and March 09. Since then the stock has been in a strong uptrend and since May 09, is in an upward sloping channel with lower end channel support around 26(200 dema is also around 26) and channel resistance around 37 currently. Based on fundamentals and technical parameters, stock looks a good investment bet to be accumulated on declines. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Replies:
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2010 at 7:59pm
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Yes.. i like it too, i had bought it a few months back at about rs.23 or so. Stock has not done much since then, but did go to 31 rupees or so for a few days, but i never bought it to sell for quick profit, but just to keep for long term.. a couple of months back, the company was talking about also getting into infrastructure financing.
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Posted By: tejas
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2010 at 10:51pm
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Hitesh, Excellent write up. This is a very good stock to trade. I know someone who has been trading in it since a long time and has build up a decent amount of capital doing so. I think it is a safe stock to invest too as there will be higher growth prospects in Infrastructure financing. Good call.  |
Posted By: iaditya
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2010 at 11:18pm
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Sales doesnt seem to be doing much. not sure why profits are changing.
But at 7 PE it seems to be fairly valued for a company with fluctuating profits. Though at 0.7P/BV it seems well priced. Not sure it is a slam dunk. ------------- Buy Solid Companies. Hold for 5 years. Avoid watching TV. Sleep Well. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2010 at 11:54pm
The company was facing some rough weather till 2007 bcos of tourism industry downturn. But if u see the results since 07, there is definite improvement. Plus promoters have pumped in a good amount of money at a high premium so capital adequacy is quite good. While looking at this stock, one needs to understand why there were problems and how the future could pan out. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: Alok Bhola
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2010 at 8:09am
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1. What is the competitive advantage this NBFC has over other NBFCs / Banks ? 2. The public sector pedigree does not inspire any confidence. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2010 at 9:51am
Competetive advantage is their experience in dealing with the tourism sector and hence better knowledge of the business. Another plus is the longer term nature of the loans which banks might not be interested. And they are dealing with two sectors which will always witness credit demand--tourism and infrastructure. I expect the company to witness around 15-20 CAGR in sales and net profits for next 2-3 years. About public sector tag, there is no choice. I like what they have done in the last three years, their NPMs, and the dividend yield which offers some downside protection. There could be an indirect trigger in the form of ifci divestment which might prompt some sort of management change. But this should not be considered an investment argument. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: Market Maniac
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2010 at 2:33am
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Since the Net NPA is 0% & Gross NPA = 2%, therefore PCR = 100% Now wharever the company recoveres from its NPA's will straight away go to the bottom line as write back. Also the TFCIL has lent to Kamat, Viceroy, Sayaji etc. but not to Taj & Leela |
Posted By: Market Maniac
Date Posted: 24/Jun/2010 at 12:19pm
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Value buy at CMP
might become the PFC / REC of Tourism sector
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Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2010 at 1:38pm
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http://www.bseindia.com/stockinfo/anndet.aspx?newsid=%7bFAF82C9A-60AC-4E10-B53F-A05C72C937DC%7d¶m1=1 - TFCIL Q1 FY 11 RESULTS
SALES 20.62 CR VS 16.58(q1 fy 10) NP 7 c vs 5.84 cr(q1 fy 10) qtrly eps at 0.87 vs 0.72 Steady growth of 20% ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: Market Maniac
Date Posted: 29/Aug/2010 at 4:55am
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Hugely undervalued at CMP
When Net NPA = 0 then if a financial trades below book then basically the market is saying that bad loans will shoot in the future which will lead to higher provisioning and thereby reduction in Networth. Somehow I dont have any reason to believe that TFC's Bad debts will show any extraordinary jump because its credit growth has been very moderate. Important question is that is this co. an Infrastructure Finance Institution ? If so, then it will hugely reduce its cost of funds. |
Posted By: excel_monkey
Date Posted: 10/Dec/2010 at 6:33am
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watch the tu tu mai mai video of TFCI head with IFCI head (the 37% shareholder in TFCI) on moneycontrol
I don't think IFCI would allow this company to gain scale the video would also give you an insight into egos of PSU honchos 
http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/business/tfci-ifci-spat-over-board-seat-wheresfight-headed_502410.html |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 11/Dec/2010 at 1:12pm
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IFCI has been mopping up shares from the markets since almost three quarters. Seems like something is cooking. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: Market Maniac
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2011 at 1:38am
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TTM PAT = 39Cr.
MCap = 214Cr. PE - 5.5x Div. Yield = 4.6% P/BV = 0.65x This when Net NPA = 0 CAR > 50% Crazy Valuations |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 04/May/2011 at 3:47pm
Things seem to be heading for a showdown. EGM called on 18 May to remove the non IFCI directors from the board. at cmp of around 27 this looks low risk moderate return buy with div yield in excess of 4%. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 04/May/2011 at 6:44pm
My advice would be to stay away. The track record of IFCI top management in managing IFCI does not inspire confidence. This one is likely to be one of those cheap cos which will remain cheap forever. ------------- When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée |
Posted By: aditrades
Date Posted: 07/Jan/2013 at 8:40pm
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Stock is ready for a move ROE is set to improve considerably going ahead bcos of the increased leverage Co.. is now growing at 30% CAGR in Balance sheet size last qtr results had a one time 6 crs provisioning much better results expected ahead Regards ------------- "A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong - not taking the loss - that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul." Jesse Livermore |