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Infosys - The big software daddy

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Large Cap Blue Chips
Forum Discription: You would not need to read any note, brokerage reports or wait for FII recommendation to buy these stocks. These are solid companies with established business & are akin to family silver.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=27
Printed Date: 26/Jun/2024 at 2:42pm


Topic: Infosys - The big software daddy
Posted By: vijay
Subject: Infosys - The big software daddy
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2006 at 12:46pm

Infosys Technologies has reported robust numbers for Q1FY07, with revenues growing by 14.9% q-o-q on back of 11% volumes growth and 3% depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. A 6-8% depreciation of the Rupee against Euro and Pound has also helped boost the revenues for the first quarter. In the quarter Infosys had a gross addition of 8097 employees while net addition was at 5694 employees (+86%y-o-y). The management has guided for an employee intake of 25,000+ in FY07. 38 new clients were added in the current quarter while client mining was good with 97% of the business being repeat business. On a vertical basis BFSI, Telecom and BPO business witnessed strong double-digit sequential growth.

Margins were impacted in Q1FY07 due to wage hikes to the tune of 3.3% while visa costs have impacted the margins adversely by 1.3%. This was offset to a large extent by the dollar appreciation. Operating margins in Q1FY07 was at 29.5% against 31.7% in the last quarter. The management has guided that operating margins would be stable for the rest of the year. As on 30th June 2006 Infosys has $381mn of forex hedges marked to market at Rs 45.87 per dollar. Billing rates have been stable with an upward bias with new clients coming in at 3-4% higher billing rates.

It appears that margins would improve in the forthcoming quarters, as the fresh recruits would start getting deployed. Also, the second quarter is normally the best quarter for IT companies. For FY07, the management has increased the revenue guidance to Rs 133.5-134bn (earlier Rs. 122.5-124.5bn) representing a growth of 40.2-40.7%. EPS guidance has been raised to Rs 124.5-125.7 (earlier Rs. 113.8-115.6) representing a growth of 38.3-39.6%. The results are a positive surprise to the market.
What do you think?


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http://www.india-forums.com/ - India Forums | http://vijay.bhatter.com/ - Vijay Bhatter



Replies:
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2006 at 6:32am
My  sense is that Infosys should do an E.P.S of Rs 128 for fy 07 and an EPS of Rs 160 for Fy 08. Post the bonus the EPS would be Rs 64 and Rs 80 respectively. Historically Infosys has tarded at a PE of 30 times current earnings therefore a price target of some where around Rs 2400 over the next 18 months is fairly achievable.That is a return of almost 50% from the current price of Rs 1612.
 
One of the biggest advanatges of having an Infosys in the portfolio is the ability to play the market decline. It would work out this way suppose the FII's wanted to pull out because of the current account of deficit or what ever reason, then the dollar would strengthen against a depreciating rupee. The biggest gainers under such circumstances would be the export oriented sector companies and particularly Infosys.
 
Therefore Infy could be played as a solid defensive stock  with minimal downside risk and a minimum 50% upside from current levels in about 18 months from now.
 
I assume the company to show 25% guidance for Fy 08.


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: binani_anand
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2006 at 1:18pm

LOOKING AT OVERALL RESULTS IT LOOKS LIKE TECH & CEMENT SECTOR

HAS PERFORMED WELL IN COMPARISON  TO OTHER SECTOR. IN THIS
 
UNCERTAIN MARKET WHERE INT RATE IS GOING UP,OIL PRICE IS
 
SHOOTING UP,INFY LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET AMONG BIG CAPS. IF INFY
 
GROWS 35-40% IN COMING YEARS IT CAN EASILY TOUCH 2500 IN NEXT
 
ONE TO ONE & HALF YEARS.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 11:28pm

This  financial year should see  a 3-4% increase in billing rates from the new clients who are supposed to make about 5% of revenues.Some of the existing clients have also increased the rates but the broader picture is still coming out

 

Over the long run pricing is expected to improve. Infosys in the NASDAQ 100 by November 2006 would neither help pricing nor fundamentals but create significant demand for the ADR’s because there are funds who invest only in the NASDAQ stocks. A small http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=382 - PE Rerating could therefore be expected once that is done.

 

The biggest challenge facing IT firms is the scaling up of operations from these levels the hiring, training and retaining manpower will be the key challenge for the industry. In about 3 years Infy will be managing more then 100,000 employees and that would take some doing. Infosys says it spends US$100m per year on training, and is increasing its training capacity in Mysore from the current 4,500 to 13,500 by year end.

 

China is not a threat to the Indian IT sector. The wages in China are 20% higher than that to India. Moreover the project management skills are even below that to what is available here.

 

It is being estimated that Europe and within that, England  will grow much faster than US. Europe is growing at 55-60% annually.

 

But integration in continental Europe and Japan yet to hit full rhythm, This year Progeon should do $ 130m in revenues, over $85m last year.

 

Infosys is expanding its bouquet of services so that it could outperform the industry growth rates.

 

In last 5 years, Infosys has grown revenues at a 38% CAGR, compared to slightly less then 30% for the industry.

 

I am told that Infosys and probably TCS have offices in the same building in Hungry. These software giants are aggressively looking at newer markets for growth.

Source:  Company Presentation at CLSA meet.



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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 12:03pm

Sorry to post it here Basant ji, but was wondering if you could provide some detailed insight into "Block Deals". Like for example, TCS has had block deals, totaling to around 130,000 shares in the past week at prices around Rs. 1022. What kind of inference can we make out this?

This is just for curiosity's sake, that is all.



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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 12:05pm

Can you tell me about details of who sold or who bought etc.



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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 12:14pm

I just did a search on moneycontrol.com but I dont seem to find it. I saw the news on CNBC channel on Friday. Two block deals, 85K at 1029 and 50K at 1022. Sorry, dont have any more info. It's okay if you cant provide any analysis, based on this; no hassles!



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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 12:20pm
Generally I look at where the stock has moved Employees to Inst and Inst to Inst does not make any diff; Inst to Pvt investor matters a lot and so does a promoter buy call.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 12:23pm
Hmm! Nice info. Thanks for that.  I think in all probability, it must have been inst. to inst.

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 11/Oct/2006 at 12:47pm
what an amazing set of number announced by INFY...they jsut continue
to impress QoQ.
Projecting a 45% yearly growth, that too on such a high base...its just awesome!


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 11/Oct/2006 at 1:24pm
Infosys as a stock is over researched and over analysed but still if it manages to surprise all the analysts. Now in Fy 08 company should do an EPS of Rs 90 per share which when discounted at 30 times would give us a value of Rs 2700 for the stock. So an investor can make a cool 35% over the next one year by buying a liquid blue chip which many would argue is an icon of developing India.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 11/Oct/2006 at 1:50pm
exactly...zero risk and 30 to 35%  reward. The problem is lot of new investors think infy is overvalued, and so dont enter. It is one of those
many stocks which will always appear overvalued at any time of the year,
but will continue to deliver year after year.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 11/Oct/2006 at 1:55pm
We all thought that it was http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=264 - over valued in 1998   and the same argument was made for http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=277 -  and   http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=117 -


Posted By: Pawan
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2006 at 12:45pm
pls suggest which one among these is the cheapest in terms of pure  valuation, n how cheap it is in comparison with others...Infy,TCS,Wipro,Satyam,HCLTech......Thnx

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Posted By: tyler_durden
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2006 at 12:51pm
infosys or satyam. these two look good. basant ji will of course stick to infy but i will go with satyam.


Posted By: Pawan
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2006 at 12:55pm
Thanx for ur response, but the question is for Basantji....and it is specific on valuaiton (cheap and how cheap)...

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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2006 at 1:38pm
Yes, I have a weakness to sticking with strong management and http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=27 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=27 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=27 -


Posted By: Pawan
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2006 at 1:42pm

basantji, I respect your view on infy and agree with u....but my specific query remained unanswered....if u cud thro some light on that part



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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2006 at 2:22pm

In case you are interested in valueing the company. Then there are 2-3 criteria. Book value, PE, ROCE, RONW.

Simpletest of these are PE and widely discussed. Specialy for software companies book value does not hold the merit. ROCE could a interesting tool. I don't know how to calculate ROCE. May be u need to get this from your broker.
FOR PE. just go to bseindia and search for subject and get trailing 4 Q EPS.  Then divide current market price by this value. You get PE.
 
Remember PE is 2 edged sword. Low PE means more protential to catch up with peers but also it means the current state of the company (may be bad and uncerain promotor, sector etc.).
 
One rule of dumb is PE should be similer to EPS growth (%). If PE is less, then company is undervalued and vice-versa.
 
 


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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2006 at 3:16pm
Vipulji has explained it well. I like looking at the RoE which can be computed as EPS/BV. About a detailed analysis on  http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=27 -


Posted By: Equity Buff
Date Posted: 15/Nov/2006 at 5:03pm
 
I would use historical or trailing P/E just to get an idea of valuation but the more important thing would be to look at P/E based on 1 and 2 yrs forward EPS. The stock market discounts the future and hence P/E based on 1 to 2 yrs forward earnings are more meaningful than historical or trailing P/E's.
 
I would look at ROE and ROCE.
 
And most important for growth stocks I would look at PE to Growth, PEG.
 
Above are my views and others may post what numbers/ratios they look at.
 
Rgds.
 
 
 


Posted By: sanjay3
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 1:42pm
infosys most reputed Indian firm

January 24, 2007 11:46 IST
Last Updated: January 24, 2007 12:34 IST

For the fourth consecutive year, software major Infosys topped the ACNielsen Corporate Reputation Index, according to the 2006 ACNielsen Corporate Image Monitor.

Two other IT giants -- Wipro and TCS -- featured among the top 10 most favourable companies, while the IT industry retained its position as the most reputed sector.

The ACNielsen Corporate Image Monitor is an annual syndicated study conducted by ACNielsen ORG-MARG. The study is conducted and designed to measure key perceptions of the performance of leading corporations in India, to help benchmark company image and reputation.

"The IT sector is very well perceived by Indians. This year, even auto and steel companies have started to make their presence felt," said Prasenjit Das, associate director, ACNielsen, India.

In its sixth edition, the ACNielsen Corporate Image Monitor reflects the significant improvements witnessed by the auto industry in the past two years.

In this round, there are two automotive companies -- Bajaj Auto (3rd) and Maruti Udyog Ltd (9th) -- in the top 10 of the Corporate Reputation Index. Tata Steel, the only steel manufacturer in the list, has improved significantly from last year.

Overall, the impression of the top 20 companies improved significantly in 2006. The average Net Image Goodwill, which the study computes on the basis of the net of positive and net of negative rating on all dimensions for the companies, shows the average NIG of the top 20 companies saw a sharp improvement to 29 per cent in 2006 from 23 percent in 2005.

Companies with sharp improvements this year were Bajaj Auto (from 9th to 3rd position), HLL (from 10th to 4th position) and Tata Steel (from 14th to 7th position). ICICI Bank is the sole entrant from the banking sector in the top 10.

Meanwhile, respondents were optimistic about the future of all these companies, with most expecting high or stable future growth for almost all the 20 companies studied. The sense of optimism was most buoyant for IT companies, with the IT sector taking the top three places in the 'Opinion about the Future'.

To capture the growing importance of Corporate Social Responsibility across boardrooms in India, the ACNielsen Corporate Image Monitor recently added CSR as an additional measurement dimension.

Infosys, Tata Steel and Wipro were rated as the three most socially responsible corporations. Tata Steel holds a much higher rank in CSR when compared to its overall standing in terms of corporate image.

"Nearly three quarters of respondents interviewed feel that companies in India today have become socially more responsible," Das added.


URL for this article: http://www.rediff.com//money/2007/jan/24infy.htm

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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2007 at 12:02pm
http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage.php?autono=272835&leftnm=8&subLeft=0&chkFlg= - Infosys seeks buyouts in France, Germany
Bloomberg / Mumbai January 28, 2007
Infosys Technologies, the country’s second-biggest software company, is seeking acquisitions in France and Germany to raise sales in the region and help the company become less dependent on the US market, chief operating officer S Gopalakrishnan said in an interview.
 
“Generally we are looking at acquisitions in Europe, especially in the areas of solutions, consulting,’’ and in countries such as France or Germany, Gopalakrishnan said in an interview from Davos, Switzerland, where he is attending the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting.
 
Infosys reported record third-quarter profit on January 11 after banks and insurers increased orders, the third straight period of more than 50 per cent growth in earnings. Sales climbed 44 per cent.
 
The company aims to reduce its reliance on the US, where it generates 60 per cent of sales, by expanding in other markets.
 
The Bangalore-based company’s long-term target is to derive 50 per cent of sales from North America, 30 per cent from Europe and 20 per cent from Asia, Gopalakrishnan said.
 
Europe has grown in the past five years from being 14 per cent of sales to about 26 per cent of sales now, he said.
 
Infosys still aims to win more orders to customise software and manage computer networks in the US, after being added to the Nasdaq-100 Index last month.
 
Keeping Up
“Clearly the challenge for the industry is growth and adding people,’’ Gopalakrishnan said.
 
The company is doing “multiple things’’ to attract workers, he said. Infosys is relying on the value of its brand, which has made it “a preferred employer in India so we are able to attract a lot of people,” he said. The company also recruits at the entry level and trains workers, the COO said.
 
Infosys said earlier this month that attrition, the rate at which workers quit, increased to 13.5 per cent in the three months ended December 31 from 10.8 per cent a year earlier.
 
Software makers, including Infosys and its larger competitor Tata Consultancy Services, are facing problems in retaining employees as global rivals International Business Machines Corporation and Accenture hire India’s low-cost engineers.
 
Infosys’s third-quarter net income rose 52 per cent to Rs 983 crore ($221 million), beating the Rs 978 crore profit analysts had anticipated.


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2007 at 6:33am
Read the whole story....
 
http://www.livemint.com/2007/02/02135728/Infosys-India%e2%80%99s-biggest--hospi.htx - Infosys:India’s biggest hospitality firm?
 
Software giant Infosys Technologies is all set to become India’s largest hospitality company this year. With plans for 15,000 rooms spread across its campuses in Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune, Bhubaneswar, Hyderabad, Mysore and Thiruvananthapuram, Infosys will emerge as the largest hospitality provider in India by June 2007, when measured by number of rooms it will offer.
 
By contrast, Indian Hotels, the company that runs the Taj chain of hotels, has 6,200 rooms across its 59 hotels. ITC Hotels, which runs the Sheraton chain of hotels in India, operates 77 hotels with about 6,000 rooms.
 
No, Infosys, India’s second-largest software company behind Tata Consulting Services, isn’t suddenly diversifying into hotels. At least, not right now.
 
Infosys, which calls its facilities ‘hostels’, is reacting to soaring hotel rates in the cities in which it operates, especially Bangalore, where hotels are often sold out even at $400 (Rs17,200) a night. India has a chronic shortage of mid-priced hotel rooms amid a sharp increase in domestic business travel and, during high season, across all hotels. Overseas visitors to India, for instance, rose by 13% last year.
“At a minimum saving of $100 a room for every day, we save significant money if you take into account that, on an average, 6,800 of our employees are travelling on work at any given point in time,” says Infosys director (human resources) T.V. Mohandas Pai. Currently, Infosys already has eight facilities operational with 3,711 rooms for its 69,000 employees.
 
 
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 3:21pm
IT has been screwed(supposedly) by PC.

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 3:51pm
WHile Infosys says that its margins would go down by about 1.5% the problem is about the negative impact these news flow have on the markets. SO if margins were to drop by 1.5% then a 1.5% drop in stock price should have been enough but there is always a magnified approach of maybe 5-7 times either way - less on the upside compared to the downside though.
 
"Evverything gets detroyed a hundred thousand times faster then it is constructed" -  Read it in Market wizards


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: chic_1978
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 3:56pm
Yes
Both Infosys & TCS are royally screwd by FM.
 
Even service tax on commercial property rent will adversely effect both Adlabs & PVR .....


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happy & wise investing


Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 3:58pm
but actuallly it will be a great buy at 1500....if it comes down


Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 4:04pm
BasantJi... I dont rembember that ...Please say whose Interview it was (if you can recall).. I will read it today!

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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 4:35pm
The word "Read" refers to in the past tense. I also forgot which interview it was in.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 4:55pm
MAT drives software hard

 



NEW DELHI: PC seems to have hit the IT and BPO industry hard with his proposal to tax 11.22 percent of the adjusted book profits as minimum alternative tax (MAT). Simply put, this would knock off 1.5 percent of Infosys' profitability for instance.

The proposal sent the entire software industry into a tizzy and utter confusion prevailed. Though no one was available to immediately comment on the Union Budget from the IT software and services lobby organization Nasscom, representatives from Infosys, TCS, Nucleus Software and Flextronics confirmed it could mean a `hard hit' for the industry.

Infosys CFO V Balakrishnan told Indiatimes Infotech that the impact would be substantial for the industry, but a little less for his company as it pays slightly higher tax overseas (read the US) and enjoys double taxation credit. The net impact for Infosys therefore would be 1.5 % of its total net income, he said.

According to Deepak Ghaisas, CEO, I-Flex Solutions "This is totally negative for the software sector since none of our issues have been addressed. He did not say anything about the continuation of STPI scheme nor was there anything concrete on SEZs. On the other hand, he has extended MAT to IT companies. They have also imposed a 1% education cess."

A spokesperson of another IT biggie TCS said MAT extension to IT industry would mean big erosion in profitability of the company.

While the government's announced intention to increase the outlay for e-governance and IT education means good news for the IT industry as a whole, it is MAT which has clearly driven the IT industry mad.

Though there was an overall negative sentiment on the bourses, IT companies stocks including that of TCS, Wipro, Infy and Satyam tanked and experts warned that the situation is unlikely to improve in the short term.

According to Nucleus Software managing director Vishnu Dusad, "it would have been better if the government had looked at the positive benefits of higher personal income tax from the IT professionals rather than trying to erode our margins so seriously."

In his Budget speech, FM Chidambaram announced that IT companies will now have to pay 11.22 per cent of their adjusted book profits as minimum adjustable tax (MAT). In a way, this pertains to tweaking the definition of MAT, say chartered accountants.

The move will hit the smaller IT companies even more as they are already squeezed for margins. The industry expressed fears that they may have to revisit their contracts with the clients.

Said Ankur Rohatgi, vice-president of Delhi-based software solutions firm Netaquila Solutions: "This is quite serious. We will have to re-evaulate our pricing with our clients. And if we can't recover MAT from our clients, we won't be able to continue. Our margins, and that of most smaller companies, are so very low."

The IT industry's one of the most talked-about carrots -- ESOPs – too have been brought under the fringe benefit tax (FBT) audit. "FBT on ESOPs is in any case mindless in my opinion. An executive going on a business trip also comes under FBT. Where is the fringe in that?
Besides, ESOPs have in any case failed. People get equity, but not options. Most companies have moved away from the options scenario due to the volatile stock markets," added Rohtagi.

The extension of MAT to the IT companies has sent shock waves across the sector. MAT will require IT cos to pay 11.22% of adjusted book profits. Along with 1% education cess, the total payable goes up to 11.33%. It is unlikely to be taken easily by the industry and it is expected to lobby hard with the government in the coming weeks before the Budget is passed.
It was a good story for the IT hardware sector, however. The Budget gave the hardware industry what it wanted: a status quo in policies and duty rates. The sector wanted the CST to be totally scrapped, but the FM made a beginning by starting the process of phasing CST out in stages.

Hence, CST will be reduced from 4% to 3% this year. "The good thing is that the government's overall push for e-governance projects, higher outlay on IT education, computerisation of PDF and FCI will result in a positive demand for the demand for PC hardware," said MAIT executive director Vinnie Mehta.

The budget also proposes to increase the allocation for e-governence to Rs 719 crore from Rs 395 crore. The FM said the central government will support the e-governance initiatives of various state governments and included Rs 500 crore for this purpose, up from Rs 300 crore.
 
 
 
Source: http://infotech.indiatimes.com/MAT_drives_software_hard/articleshow/1699833.cms - http://infotech.indiatimes.com/MAT_drives_software_hard/articleshow/1699833.cms


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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 5:04pm

"Read" has the same spelling in past tense as well as future tense! A magical word in English!!! LOL

Thanks for a great quote anyway BasantJi!

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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!


Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 5:13pm

Om,
does this change your outlook on nucleus in any way?


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The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 5:17pm
Oh no man! Far from it. And not even TCS. Companies like TCS and Nucleus know how to milk the sweet cows. This is short-term and if you have cash, get some more of Nucleus.
 
In 12 months' time, we would be discussing something else(as per current conditions)


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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 5:21pm
Originally posted by BubbleVision

BasantJi... I dont rembember that ...Please say whose Interview it was (if you can recall).. I will read it today!
 
Everything gets destroyed a hundred times faster then it is built up. It takes one day to tear down something that might have taken ten years to build.  - Paul Tudor Jones
 
Market Wizards page 124.
 
 
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 6:56pm
...trouble in india is that it rarely reaches the needy....
 
-----------------------------------------------------
Correct Dr. Saab, it reaches only the greedy!
 
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 6:57pm
Thank You BasantJi...I dont know how i missed that line from Paul Tudor Jones! 

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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!


Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 7:13pm
Everything gets destroyed a hundred times faster then it is built up. It takes one day to tear down something that might have taken ten years to build.  - Paul Tudor Jones
Basant, what I do is when I watch some Mayhem (whether Markets or personal)I go out in the open , just to Check if the Sun is Shinng and the Birds Chirping , to see if the world is not coming to an End ?Wink
Negative emotions are 100 times more powerful than positive ones so one should not fall prey to them .


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 7:33pm
what I do is when I watch some Mayhem (whether Markets or personal)
 
--------------------------------------------
 
Vip1
 
On a very serious note, I strongly recommend http://www.vri.dhamma.org - this website & attending a course on universal & scientific method towards purifying the mind. It has helped immensely to some people very close to me.
 
I'm planning to attend a course soon.
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 7:52pm
These Techno companies pay very less tax as compared to other industries........why is then there a noise when tax rate is increased a bit??

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Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 8:00pm
India reached the global map, thanks to IT. This at least IT deserves. This is called loyalty. Some more years and then putting tax on them would be okay. Of course, this is my personal opinion.

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 10:34pm
It is not that they were not paying taxes earlier.....It is just that the taxes have been increased by a bit......It can also be interpreted in other way. IT has been exposed to taxes slowly and slowly and not by a sudden. Smile

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Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 10:49pm
Yes true Kaushal ji. In fact, my sources have confirmed that TCS, Infy(biggies) etc. wont be hurt by the MAT, bcoz they are already paying tax more than MAT. So, this sudden fall is a definite sentiment-play rather than a FACT play.

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 11:14pm
yes sir ji.....that is what i wanted to say that this will marginally affect the bottomline.
 
I replied as i saw some comments saying infy and tcs are going to be screwed, which personally i found inappropriate considering the increase in tax. So thought of helping people view things in right perspective.


-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 10:19am
Originally posted by omshivaya

India reached the global map, thanks to IT. This at least IT deserves. This is called loyalty. Some more years and then putting tax on them would be okay. Of course, this is my personal opinion.


Well said omji. But the main issue I find here is while infosys or Wipro or TCS continue to pay taxes on their profits (earned through outsourcing), global companies like Microsoft, IBM or Texas or Intel or Motorola who also do the same outsourcing business (from US to India) aren't taxed at all in India. On the contarary, they pay taxes to the US Govt. which is of no use to India.

For these MNC's, doing outsourcing to its 100% Indian subsidiary is part of their own business, hence this cannot be calculated as a profit point for the Indian subsidiary. They (the parent companies) save a lot by outsourcing to India and that benefits their parent countries' shareholders. But what about India? These firms neither pay taxes nor are they related to Indian investors.

So when Infy cries foul when taxes are increased, its fair. Infy is at least giving returns to Indian shareholders and also paying taxes.

Some food for thought!



Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 10:54am
That was very well explained. Sometimes we focus only on the listed players and that makes us miss the bigger picture.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 01/Mar/2007 at 9:53pm

Narayana Murthy in an Interview with Economic times a couple weeks ago expressed a position that IT companies should pay taxes since they are utilizing resources of the country and its only fair that they should pay taxes as responsible corporate citizens.

Azim Premji in the same Interview had the opposite viewand they both agreed to disagree.
 
There are a lot of Multinationals benefiting from the IT resources of the country thru fully owned subsidary or outsourcing.
 
I agree that everyone who has the opportunity to make money by utilizing the resources of India should be paying tax.
 
How much is a different topic altogether.


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Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Mar/2007 at 11:15pm
I understand that Infy's 3 core principles (for all stakeholders--promoters, employees, vendors, partners etc) are:
 
  1. Under-promise & over-deliver
  2. When in doubt, disclose
  3. Softest pillow in the world is clear & clean self conscience

If one thinks rationally, these 3 are a MUST for everyday life, aren't they?

 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: s_praharaj
Date Posted: 15/Mar/2007 at 12:21pm

Kulmanji,

Yes, you have analysed nicely the typical qualities of Infosys.



-------------
Shashi Praharaj


Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 15/Mar/2007 at 5:42am
IT companies have been the biggest beneficiary of booming financial sector of USA. Financial companies are always hungry for software product/services. Either they or their outsourcing partners had outsourced alot of work to India in recent years. Some of the biggest accounts with Indian vendors are from financial sector. Indian BPO companies are earning their bread 'n butter only from this sector. With so many action going on there, I believe most of IT companies will feel the punch. There are so many subprime companies gone bankrupt and many are not in healthy conditions. Situation with all-prime and prime lenders are also not rosy as rate of interest has gone up quite substantially. On of my friend who lives on USA told me that worst will come in 07-08, when most of borrowers has resetting clause. For subprime loans resetting happens after 2 years whereas for rest it happens after 5 years.
So if any sector India will get effected from USA meltdown, IT service will be the first one. Yes, it will be fist to recover from USA recovery but in between there lies a dark time.
Please remember financial sector is largest sector of any economy and they are the largest customers of any Indian software vendors.


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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.


Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:25am
'Other income'Wink ne kamal dikhaya hai. Otherwise INFY guidance of 80-81 says the story .. somebody said selloff ..

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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 11:25am
Just for info. purposes: Infy guidance at 80-81 means expect 88-89! Last year they guided 28-30% growth and delivered close to 50% earnings growth.

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 11:52am
Just a personal note: Infosys guiding at 25% and doing 47% last year was not conservative guidance but faulty guidance.If it was conservative then it would create more problems because each time it says something the markets would think Ah! it should be more and that discount would widen.
 
Guidance should bring objectivity and reduce confusion and speculation but here that purposeis not being served.
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 3:19pm
Infy has always given a guidance and beaten it, since the time it first listed. So, to each his own. Some may call it faulty guidance(though doing it for 20 years and more seems a deliberate thing) and some prefer to call it conservative. To each his own mentality of thinking. Cheers!
 
Just a casual note Wink


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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 3:48pm
With Infy it is classic case of " Samajhnewalen samajh gaye jo Na Samjhe------ " It Delivers then Talks rather than other way round.


Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 10:14pm
 Infosys is just too classy-a cut above the rest in meritocracy and politicslessness -a strange creature in India.No wonder they can remain cheerful in the wake of the threat of an appreciating rupee.

-------------
Ajith


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 10:23pm
I sometimes wonder what mettle is Narayan Murthy made of. Many people create big institutions but few have the guts to leave it and then watch it from a distance. Not sure if I mentioned this before but a cousin of mine spotted Narayan Murthy in an Auto in the streets of Delhi sometime in the late 90's. I read somewhere that he travelled to office in the employees bus. Surely Murthy is a cut above the rest and the best part with all 7 of them is that they do not seem hungry for wealth all that hunger is directed towards success.
 
Never ever seen him take warrants at discount or issue preferential shares to themselves. I wonder if the other promoters could take note from them.
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 10:27pm
Exemplary character that he sure is.

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 10:32pm
In 1993 when Infy came out with its IPO it wrote that we will pay dividends which shall grow by 50% each year. Normally companies write that if we make profits then we will pay. he also priced his ADR lower during the NASDAQ listing so that investors could make some gains.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 10:36pm
Yes that Red Herring note at the time of its IPO is pretty famous now.

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 3:55am
Originally posted by basant

I sometimes wonder what mettle is Narayan Murthy made of. Many people create big institutions but few have the guts to leave it and then watch it from a distance. Not sure if I mentioned this before but a cousin of mine spotted Narayan Murthy in an Auto in the streets of Delhi sometime in the late 90's. I read somewhere that he travelled to office in the employees bus. Surely Murthy is a cut above the rest and the best part with all 7 of them is that they do not seem hungry for wealth all that hunger is directed towards success.
 
Never ever seen him take warrants at discount or issue preferential shares to themselves. I wonder if the other promoters could take note from them.
 


In 2000 one of the usual days when I was standing in queue for getting lunch at B'lore canteen with a plate in my hand... Just to my back I see NRN & some one else standing behind me by 2 or 3 ppl.. NRN was also with a plate in his hand & they both were involved in some coversation..

After I got my stuff and found a table and sat down with my friends, just looked around for NRN and he was sitting 2 tables away.. He was the CEO at that time and was at helm of the affairs..

Quite a contrary to even senior managers of some brick & mortar industry..

Such a simple thing..but it stuck me that somebody worth millions can be so simple..


-------------
Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch


Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 6:20am
Many times, I shared lunch table with NRN at infosys's keonics office canteen. Personally he is quite humble and believe in sharing. He is socialist by heart.
- jaha tak perferrencial alottment ka sawal hai, it is unheard in software sector. INFY is no different.
- ADR lower during the NASDAQ listing - Secondary listing is always discount to prevelent price. INFY is no different.
 I give point to INFY because of vision. Otherwise INFY is no better. Outsider don't know actual happening of the company, so all looks good and when going is good, nobody questions.


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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 9:40am
It was actually a revelation that NRN used to have lunch with his employees. He is worth billions and to actually dhare lunch at the canteen is a phenomenal thing. Anything else that you people know about him?

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2007 at 3:13pm
Azim Premji is also very simple as a person who interacted with him while he was going out for a walk in Ooty testified.But at Infosys its a whole culture -a unique model.Will other companies now emulate this culure?But  the number of high-thinking guys at Infy-thats their USP according to an ex high ranking Satyam employee.

-------------
Ajith


Posted By: psimajin
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2007 at 3:27pm
Kris new CEO of Infosys, Shibulal COO
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1907504.cms - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1907504.cms


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 8:31pm
Vipulji: In line with your reasoning for making a bearish case for exporters in case of depreciating dollar I was thinking that since most software exporters work with a 25% net profit margin and have guided at Rs 43 for Fy 08 every percentage fall in the dollar should hit the bottomline by 4%. carrying that linear relationship top software companies should break even at Rs 33 to a dollar - if that happens.Ouch
 
Now the above statement was just a weird hypothetical example. because if there are no software exports other exporters will close shop first because they work on lower margins 12%-15% => this should send the current account and the balance of trade in a tailspin with a depreciating rupee.
 
But surely the threat is huge and I remember how Vipul countered the opinion of a big fund manager a few weeks back = we do seem to have woken up to reality.Cry


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 9:57pm
so if software exports becom not avery profitable business  then that could affect the spending patterns of many employees and thus affect retail sales we r not yet there but the rate at which the rupee is appreciating that can well happen.soon the country will be able to import power plants , locomotives,buses, paints,almost anything is this what rbi wants that everything in this country should bcom very very cheap.

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 10:18pm

yes, logic does suggest that domestic consumption which is fuelled by the salaried class would be affected but remember none of these companies (exporters) would close down. That is only a threat which could affect PE of these companies.

Retail is more of a shifting game - a person was previously buying from the kiana and is now visiting Big bazaar or reliance Fresh but the high end retailers like Shoppers STop could be affected. But that would be carrying the argument a wee bit too far because at most growth artes woulkd come down but India is not as much dependent upon exports as other countries so I think that we could just about stay fine.
 
 
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 10:56pm
Apparently RBI is testing a freer float of the rupee with an eye on which direction it would go. Contrary to general opinion, The Rupee is behaving unexpectedly by strengthening. The other side of the coin, International demand for the rupee seems stronger currently as Foreigners are all looking to get a piece if the Indian economy pie.
This proves that the Rupee was kept artificially weaker and mow market is finding its equilibrium.


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Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 11:06pm

BasantJi,

I dont quite agree with the line written above: "every percentage fall in the dollar should hit the bottomline by 4%".
 
I think it might need some correction.
 
Regards.
 


-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 11:11pm
Originally posted by kaushalchawla

BasantJi,

I dont quite agree with the line written above: "every percentage fall in the dollar should hit the bottomline by 4%".
 
I think it might need some correction.
 
Regards.
 
 
Net profit margin for all software companies is 25% so assuming alinear relationship (though euro exposure dollar salaries will work against it) a 25% drop in revenues (appreacting rupee) will wipe out 100% (entire bottomline) => hence that 1:4 relationship.


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 11:23pm
Yes....assuming linear relationship and ignoring other markets where infy operates, this relationship holds good on assumptions.
 
I read long time back, 1% change in INR-$ affects the bottomline to the tune of 0.5-1%. though didnt get into details that time.


-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 11:26pm
 There could be cost cuts and billing rates increases to compensate,perhaps,Mr. Basant.That is perhaps where my calculation on the  Frank Infotech fund went wrong(not that it has mattered much-as yet) .
 But ,in case profits do start getting affected as you say without set-offs there could be problems in case rupee appreciates.Too many unknown variables for comfortable analysis!!


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Ajith


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 12:23pm
Originally posted by basant

Net profit margin for all software companies is 25% so assuming alinear relationship (though euro exposure dollar salaries will work against it) a 25% drop in revenues (appreacting rupee) will wipe out 100% (entire bottomline) => hence that 1:4 relationship.
 
 
My theory was based more out of a generalised concept rather then a mathematical model. the idea was to show even a slight gain in the rupee can create multiple problems for the IT sector - as the variable increase the PE ratio drops!


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 2:01am

Infy and other software companies pays portion of salary in $$ too. If somebody is working for infy and placed in US they get paid Indian Salary+ "Allowance" which in  $$. So only cost that goes up is Indian salary. $$ won't come down to 33 in one week(if at all) so if it takes longer, than salary growth would be lower. But there should be pressure on margin for outsoursing projects.

They also import server and some equipments, that cost may come down.
 
And staff in US gets 100% salary in USD.


Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 6:16am
Infy and other software companies pays portion of salary in $$ too.
----------------
Manishdeva G,
 We all understand IT services companies do have on-site or permanent employees in USA and other part of world except India. Question is their biggest expenses are in INR. Not more than 10% of employees expenditure are in USD. We are talking about rest 90%. Salary raises will not be affected by INR strength because of demand-supply mismatch.
Some old analysts S*, will have tough time with their portfolios. Latest RBI stand on FOREX expenditure outside is not expected to impact much on INR. I have seen many such steps worldwide.
India is still net net import economy and in such economy currency should not appreciate beyond a point. Recent appreciation is contributed to some temporary phenomena ...a. No RBI intervention a. Huge FII/FDI inflow. Both are temporary in nature. So making case for sharp appreciation from here looks unlikely.
Forget FDI, FII inflow at these INR levels are cause of deep concern (for exporters).


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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 8:01am

bubble ji any idea how much the rupee has appreciated against the yen, and the euro and other asian currencies



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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: chic_1978
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 10:50am

Tiger

Check this site for all forex details....www.xe.com

 



-------------
happy & wise investing


Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 24/Apr/2007 at 10:59am
Originally posted by tigershark

bubble ji any idea how much the rupee has appreciated against the yen, and the euro and other asian currencies

 
Tiger...
 
INR performance in the last 30 days...
 
Against USD up 6.99% 
Against EUR up 3.21%
Against GBP up 3.95%
Against JPY up 6.28%
Against CHF up 4.58%
Against AUD up 2.92%
 
And it would be incorerct to assume that all software companies were not hedged.
 
I know one which was hedged...and also one whose treasury guys are continously waiting for a rally to sell the Dollars, and are NOT hedged!!!
 
Some also sold "Risk Reversal options."
 
Chic For Indian Currency ...that is not the site.
 
 


-------------
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 26/May/2007 at 11:31pm
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/storyprintfriendly/0,4582,235414,00.html? - Infosys hedging more against stronger rupee

BERKELEY - The incoming CEO of http://www.infosys.com/ - Infosys Technologies , India's second-largest software exporter, said it had recently increased its hedging against rupee appreciation but that the profit impact of the currency strengthening remained uncertain.

S Gopalakrishnan, now president and COO, also said on Friday that Infosys was eyeing acquisitions as part of its expansion strategy, adding that when he takes over as CEO next month the company should move faster to take advantage of any opportunities.

He said due to a sustained rise in the rupee against the dollar, Infosys had further increased its hedging since the end of March, when it had US$470 million worth of rupee hedges.

'It is much more than that,' Gopalakrishnan said in an interview midway through a conference on Indian democracy at the University of California, Berkeley, though the ultimate impact on earnings remains uncertain due to continued rupee fluctuation.

'Our guidance is based on a fixed exchange rate of 43.1 per dollar,' he said, noting the rupee now trades at about 40.59 per dollar. 'We can't give guidance every day based on rupee ... it really is what the rupee is at the end of quarter.'

The rupee has hit a nine-year record against the dollar, reducing revenue from abroad when translated into Infosys's reporting currency. Mr Gopalakrishnan says a 1 per cent rise in the rupee against the dollar impacts Infosys's earnings margin by about 45 basis points.

Mr Gopalakrishnan said his company, which has 72,000 workers, was looking at buying smaller, solid companies that wanted to be acquired, but declined to give details.

Nasdaq-listed shares of the company rose 2.9 per cent to US$49.90, after its Mumbai stock rose 2.6 per cent. -- REUTERS



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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 27/May/2007 at 11:16pm
[QUOTE=vipul] Infy and other software companies pays portion of salary in $$ too.
----------------
Manishdeva G,

 We all understand IT services companies do have on-site or permanent employees in USA and other part of world except India. Question is their biggest expenses are in INR. Not more than 10% of employees expenditure are in USD. We are talking about rest 90%. Salary raises will not be affected by INR strength because of demand-supply mismatch.

QUOTE]

Ratio of US employee salary cost and Indian employee salary would be approximately 2:3. Any company will have minimum and 15% of emplyees in US and their salary will be 4 times Indian salary. So we are looking at a ratio of 60:85 approximately.


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 27/May/2007 at 6:58am

For every 1 person at onsite, usually there are 2 to 3 people at offshore.

If the onsite is US, the average salary of onsite person comes around 5K $ per month, whereas at offshore the average salary is around 30K per month.
 
So, a lot of portion of money is spent in $ and hence software companies are not to a very big extent but to the tune of 0.5% of their bottomline for 1% of the strength in the INR-$.


-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 8:15pm
I think Infosys at 1925s level is looking a good long term investment to me. comments invited.

-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 8:29pm

I know a few senior guys from the IT industry & their opinion is YES.

 
 
 
P.S.: Investors should carry out their own detailed research.


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: BULLSEYE
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 8:34pm
but wt about comments 4r ambani junior saying that dollar will be at rs 30 till march o8


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 8:37pm
TCS has hinted at introducing a "currency clause" in all their contracts. So, I would say they are ready for this challenege albeit gradually.

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 9:13pm
Om whatever this is it is a disadvantage that these companies will have to work at resolving. It would in any way affect software companies in terms of their growth rate if without currency problems they do 40% then with currency surely they would do less then that!

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 10:03pm

If they introduce the currency clause in future contracts, then that shouldn't be a problem. Also, if they are able to negotiate with existing clients with some sort of currency perspective in their existing contracts that would take care of it too. However, the latter part I cannot comment on.

But knowing the brand and client satisfaction TCS has, I would think they would be able to leverage it with their clients to handle the currency stuff in a preyy decent manner.
 
So, I would look at 30-35% instead of 40% probably. Let's see. It's better to let results speak for themselves than me speculate.


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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 11:00pm
What is this currency clause Omji !

Is it something like the quote is based on Rs n conversion factor for a $.
If during period of contract the average Rs-$ conversion factor decreases by x% then the quote would be adjusted to y% ?

(Or)

Is it that if a depreciation happens beyond a certain % then a certain % of quote should be paid in Rupees?

(Or)

For multi-year contracts do companies accommodate a certain % in original quote to cater for depreciation.

Per se I think this kind of currency clauses are more important for multi year contracts more than shorter term projects say over 6 months or even 1 yr.

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Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 31/May/2007 at 12:42pm

I am not sure on the fine print. CFO of TCS only mentioned that there would be a clause on a TV channel.



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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 01/Jun/2007 at 3:08pm
Om... TCS Currency Clause..See http://ri2.rois.com/H9jnof1DG05c6lzvGY9RYSdXguFnpHtk7-32hhU2wlLqr/CTIB/RI3APINEWS?FORMAT=HTML&TEXT=1180616058nBOM293643 - this , http://ri2.rois.com/H9jnof1DG05c6lzvGY9RYSdXguFnpHtk7-32hhU2wlLqr/CTIB/RI3APINEWS?FORMAT=HTML&TEXT=1180338934nBMA000903 - this  and importantly http://ri2.rois.com/H9jnof1DG05c6lzvGY9RYSdXguFnpHtk7-32hhU2wlLqr/CTIB/RI3APINEWS?FORMAT=HTML&TEXT=1180345825nBOM141486 - this.

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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 01/Jun/2007 at 4:09pm
Thank you Bubble ji for those links. Very helpful.

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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 26/Jun/2007 at 12:59pm
What do you all think will be Infy's YoY growth for the first quarter? 25%? The market is expecting around 30% inspite of all the currency hungama. Anything less than 30% - the IT stocks would tank.
 
It's only the first quarter that is making me nervous. Infy has enough pricing power to increase their billing rates by 10% for new projects that they take up.


Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 26/Jun/2007 at 1:08pm
HI
 
I think infy will post yoy growth at around 27-28%. If they can produce growth at around 30% it will be good.
 
But i feel most of the bad news is already priced in the stock. Unless they give a very bad quarter or lower the guidence for full year,  the stock will hold and slowly move up.  lets hope for the best.


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Make your Life as simple as possible.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Jun/2007 at 1:41pm
Infy will definetely grow at that but what investors could consider is that by 2009 Infy would be (gradually) put under a tax bracket also market hates uncertainity and a company's PE would contract given the uncertainity that dollar- ruppe trades are witnessing. 

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 26/Jun/2007 at 1:45pm
For a better part of my investing life, I have seen Infy trade at last 4 quarter PE of 30 - 35. So what will it contract to by 2009? 25 or lower?


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Jun/2007 at 1:57pm
Should not go below 25 but the increase in EPS will offset the PE contraction so prices might not move as one normally associates an Infy with.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2007 at 11:54am
11 July:10 AM:Market/TV Channels/Traders will dance on tunes of INFY.Cool
"We are seeing new contracts coming on higher billing rates. We are negotiating existing contracts. Our billing manpower efficiency has increased by 2 basis points. However further INR appreciation may erode EPS but at this point of time we are hopeful of achieving full year EPS target".
--This is best case scenario. Will market like this ? Mr. Market...pls...


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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.


Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2007 at 11:56am
Mr. Market wants INFY to beat its guidance, not meet it. Big%20smile


Posted By: psimajin
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2007 at 10:34am
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Capgemini_flies_on_talk_of_Infosys_bid/articleshow/2158998.cms -
 
 
 
 
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Capgemini_flies_on_talk_of_Infosys_bid/articleshow/2158998.cms
 
 
 
 
 



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