Start of a new Bear Market ?
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Printed Date: 19/Apr/2025 at 8:23pm
Topic: Start of a new Bear Market ?
Posted By: Circuit
Subject: Start of a new Bear Market ?
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2010 at 9:21pm
The fall in the market for past 4 days looks like a beginning of a new Bear market let's start the debate.....
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Replies:
Posted By: rajsharma
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2010 at 11:49pm
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I feel a bear market is very good for Investors who are long term players. It's the time to do good pickup and wait patiently for optimists to be back in the market. This gives opportuity to accumualte great stocks at reasonable prices. |
Posted By: rajivsubra
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2010 at 12:22pm
Yeah bear markets are okay - the days I really dislike though are the ones where everything I want to buy goes up while everything I want to hold goes down.....this kind of market needs a name...maybe the donkey market - because it makes me feel like one! 
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Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2010 at 9:39am
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/183800-10-reasons-for-the-shift-in-market-sentiment - 10 Reasons for the Shift in Market Sentiment 1. President Obama has signaled that a scaled back healthcare bill will be looked into. 2. China posted a quarterly GDP of 10.7% on a year over year basis – This is too “hot” by any measure. 3. The Obama administration is looking to present legislation that will severely reduce proprietary trading at major financial institutions. 4. Initial Claims were http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/01/21/initial-and-continuing-claims-worse-yet-again/ - 40,000 higher than expected Thursday morning, showing that employment trends are not getting better 5. Japan’s lending by companies has hit mutli-year lows. Business recovery is in jeopardy. 6. Earnings from many companies in the U.S. are meeting and exceeding estimates, while revenues are inline. 7. The Euro continues to http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/01/21/u-s-dollar-rally-see-why/ - lag against the U.S. dollar as a flight to safety continues. 8. Bullish sentiment has been at over-heating levels, usually a contrary indicator. 9. The risk trade has been off for the same time the U.S dollar is moving higher. 10. Australia is talking about taxing some mining companies to bring in additional revenue. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2010 at 10:16am
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None of the factors you mentioned have a direct bearing on India, although indirect collateral damage may occur.
Usually it is seen that as the fall progresses, bad news begin to pour in from unexpected quarters. Currently in India it is difficult to see markets going down to 11-12k levels as the elliot wave analysts are forecasting. But a healthy dose of correction does look likely to make stocks attractive for buying. Fingers crossed.  ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: Vrishali
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2010 at 10:38am
What happens to someone who believes in being invested 100% ? ------------- "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes little sense for those who know what they're doing." - Warren Buffet |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2010 at 11:05am
They have already made the choice beforehand so they will have to live with it. Plus most of the long term investors are already sitting on huge profits so this kind of gyrations dont affect them so much. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2010 at 11:34am
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one should fear bear mkts in the economy not a bear mkt in stock prices
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Vrishali
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2010 at 1:46pm
There are no Bulls & Bears in real economy, only Sharks  ------------- "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes little sense for those who know what they're doing." - Warren Buffet |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2010 at 2:13pm
For the April to December '09 period, indirect tax collections have suffered. A 13% dip in excise duty, a 6% drop in service tax and a hefty 28% cut in customs duty has led to an overall 18% lower collection over the previous year's same period. Does these figures enthuse market players ? |
Posted By: ravi
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2010 at 4:22pm
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Well.... sure the Bears sensed an opportunity when L&T came out with bad numbers in the third quarter....and drew blood ------------- |
Posted By: biks
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2010 at 4:46pm
welcome to the club! -biks ------------- i am tired of being bored... i think i'll make a lateral move to self-pity |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2010 at 4:14am
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Unless we have billions of $ invested it should not worry us.
There will be long list of companies in 2012-13; those that would have have doubled triped from todays price. We should hunt for those. Indian economy growing at 9% and some companies growing over 15-20% are unlikely to see bear market in their profits and sales figure - thats primarily what a long term investor should worry about. Bear market is least likely to occur when everyone is talking about it. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2010 at 6:02am
What I meant is leveraged. |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 25/Jan/2010 at 9:09pm
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3dckolKDlJI&pos=4 - India Hit by Record Low ‘Buys’ on Rate Outlook .... Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3dckolKDlJI&pos=4"> 
Investment
strategists are cutting recommendations on India at a record pace after
the country’s stocks surpassed China as the most expensive major
emerging market for the first time since 2006. The Bombay Stock
Exchange Sensitive Index is valued at 20 times estimated profits,
higher than China for the first time since November 2006 and the
second-most expensive among the 25 biggest markets after Japan,
according to monthly data compiled by Bloomberg. Even after the Sensex
sank 4 percent last week, the most in almost three months, its stocks
trade within 6.1 percent of analysts’ average 12-month price estimates.
Rising valuations prompted analysts to cut “buy” ratings on Indian... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3dckolKDlJI&pos=4 - Full Story |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 26/Jan/2010 at 11:37pm
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Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 26/Jan/2010 at 8:00am
It talks about bear phase in US.. but does that mean similar trends in Indian market? this may be second dip..
------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2010 at 2:28pm
| How far below will this go? Shankar sharma says 12000 on the sensex??? Budget is also coming, any reaction from that? |
Posted By: ravi
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2010 at 7:22pm
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Mr. George Soros was active in 2008 and one would have to say he would have shorted today as well.........
Any data? ------------- |
Posted By: ravi
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2010 at 7:43pm
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The classic conundrum in human behaviour, be it any views or information is that a big class of participants who may have their views or assumptions have to be fed a different kind of information so that a part of the pool of the participants would start to react in a different way so that either a different trend emerges or the majority view emerges that human behaviour cannot be predicted. This we realize is a necessity for people who say that activity is the only criteria that exists!
Such is human behaviour that it can be always modified to suit the requirements for a particular occassion and always the majority....concur in the viewpoint.  ------------- |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2010 at 9:58pm
The elliot wave guys are predicting the level of 11-12k but they claim it will take around 7-8 months. So according to them there would be rallies as well. Cheer up. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2010 at 10:57pm
| i do not think this is bear market at all. A strongly deservedly correction nevertheless. People with cash and who follow fundamentals strongly should be strongly buying at every dip. Who knows what levels are possible, but this is time to go all out for shopping. Atleast I am. |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2010 at 11:17pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/27/davos-soros-debt-double-recession - Soros fears double dip recession The speculator and philanthropist George Soros warned that growing political resistance to fresh state borrowing risks pushing the http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/global-economy - global economy into a double-dip recession next year. Soros said in Davos that the recovery from the worst recession since the second world war was "incomplete", but that fear about sovereign country debt was a barrier to spending designed to boost growth. |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2010 at 5:50am
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/marketoutlook/see-sensex-at-12kl-tmetals-to-lead-fallshankar-sharma_438082.html - See Sensex at 12K; L&T, metals to lead fall: Shankar Sharma.....He remains negative on infrastructure but is positive on the IT space. "We expect L&T, metals to lead the market fall. L&T can fall 40-45% from current levels. However, BHEL may not fall as much as L&T. Punj Lloyd needs to solve legacy issues, while JP Associates, HCC, IVRCL Infrastructure are very expensive stocks."http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/marketoutlook/see-sensex-at-12kl-tmetals-to-lead-fallshankar-sharma_438082.html - full story |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2010 at 9:23am
He certainly knows how to time his statements to cause a flutter in the mind of market participants. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2010 at 11:32am
On the positive side, at least recession wont be triple dip 
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Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2010 at 10:20pm
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http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=21407780&msgid=151212&act=DDZF&c=611034&destination=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.moneylife.in%2Farticle%2F8%2F3637.html -
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Posted By: khokhadream
Date Posted: 16/Feb/2010 at 7:13pm
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NEW DIRECT TAX CODE (Is this true)
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_new-tax-code-a-capital-gains-shocker_1290516 In fact, one can say with more than reasonable certainty that this is what exactly will happen -- when investors wake up to the reality that the blanket exemption on long-term capital gains tax is to be withdrawn, shares are going to be sold en masse. Such a fire sale is bound to eventually lead to a stock market crash. And since the change of law affects not only domestic retail investors but even FIIs, NRIs etc alike, this crash could well go on to be the mother of all crashes. Since such a situation is undesirable for investors and the government, preventive measures need to be thought of from now. |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 16/Feb/2010 at 10:52pm
If implemented as drafted.... we can expect lot of "Long Term Investors" becoming "Short Term Speculators" and this may trigger a massive sell off 
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Posted By: Khan
Date Posted: 16/Feb/2010 at 10:33am
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I don't think there should be a crash. At the most if I have long term cap gains and I want to avoid taxes, I will book the profits and re-enter before the taxation comes into effect. Thus I have made tax free gains and my current position would remain intact, except for some transaction costs.. these will definitely boost the stock prices of brokers. ------------- If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you've always gotten |
Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2010 at 12:59pm
| not sure if govt. would do anything to spoil the market sentiments too much as they need to raise tens of thousands of crores from the market .... |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2010 at 3:26pm
 |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2010 at 3:49pm
शर्मा जी के मूंह में घी-शक्कर |
Posted By: Monkey
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2010 at 3:56pm
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It will not take much for Sharmaji to swap the digits in his prediction - 21K instead of 12k.
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2010 at 4:13pm
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Dr. Tigershark is a great wild life photographer. Here 's one of the best pictures from his F/B album: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AAp_NMX5R5k/S30gPUPikOI/AAAAAAAAAK4/Zi3xyJ-N6xw/s1600-h/chameleon.jpg">  The Chameleon |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2010 at 5:20pm
Sharma Ji se subko inta gussa kyo hai ?
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2010 at 7:58pm
 ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2010 at 11:22am
| Dr. Vivek Naik - Is that a donkey? |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2010 at 12:56pm
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i charge rs150 for eye testing or still better once yu get titan div warrant take the discount coupon and visit titan eye+!
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: arunshah2k
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2010 at 11:03am
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Now, here is an optimist point of view. One is too pessimistic and another is too optimistic. http://www.sandipsabharwal.com/2010/02/markets-shaping-up-for-sharp-upmove.html - Markets shaping up for a sharp upmove |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 22/Feb/2010 at 2:57pm
Both are (a) SS ------------- Fundamentalists and anticipators may have difficulties with risk control because a trade keeps looking ‘better’ the more it goes against them....Ed Seykota |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 23/Feb/2010 at 7:52pm
and BS |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 20/May/2010 at 10:03pm
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Time for Quarterly Review of this thread?
------------- Fundamentalists and anticipators may have difficulties with risk control because a trade keeps looking ‘better’ the more it goes against them....Ed Seykota |
Posted By: barla
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2011 at 11:57pm
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We are now in the middle of a bear market |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2011 at 11:49am
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We are not in a bear market.We are a growing economy,our earnings are increasing every year - sooner or later we are going to be a bargain on every which parameter and the firangis will have no option but to buy us.Once we are up 30% - the retail will come in,that's our tragedy.
------------- Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time. |
Posted By: Crazy Horse
Date Posted: 10/Feb/2011 at 12:48pm
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The correlation between economic growth and stock market growth basically depends on the start and end point taken!!
between mid 2007 and now Chinese GDP grew by ~40% (cumulative); the index though is down 50% :)
------------- The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding, go out and meet it (Thucydides, Circa 460 BC - 400 BC) |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 10/Feb/2011 at 12:57pm
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China was trading at a trailing PE of 40-60 in 06-07 depending upon where you look from.I don't think where we are or where we were 6 months back, is over-valued by any metric unless India stops growing at 7-8%. If you think we can't grow at that rate - its a different debate altogether. ------------- Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time. |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 10/Feb/2011 at 7:07pm
FII's on exit route.....
------------- Fundamentalists and anticipators may have difficulties with risk control because a trade keeps looking ‘better’ the more it goes against them....Ed Seykota |
Posted By: excel_monkey
Date Posted: 10/Feb/2011 at 7:47pm
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Very hard to say if we are in a bull or a bear market
In short term the market seems to be oversold |
Posted By: Ravenrage
Date Posted: 10/Feb/2011 at 8:06pm
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I was coming out of college and was standing close to a roadside pan-bidi(cigarette) shop. I heard the shopkeeper put buy call on some blue-chip stocks !!
May all these guys lead the rally ! |
Posted By: barla
Date Posted: 10/Feb/2011 at 8:54pm
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There is definitely growth in the economy. But the markets are not directly linked to the performacne of the economy.
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Posted By: srihsd1
Date Posted: 10/Feb/2011 at 8:59pm
This is exactly what is needed. More and more people should come forward and invest. We can not always look to FIIs. ------------- Best Regards Sri |
Posted By: barla
Date Posted: 10/Feb/2011 at 9:40pm
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Even in the US people lost money badly in the stock market. There the whole system is very sophisticated. Even then there was a lot of pain.
Investing is a very sophisticated activity. To understand earnings, systemic risk etc. and short term pain versus long term gain requires a certain amount of sophistication.
If in India everyone invests and the markets fall we are going to have chaos.
In fact it is better if a certain category of investors stays out of the market.
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Posted By: bail_shing
Date Posted: 04/May/2011 at 12:18pm
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Now seems like commodities in correction mode; good monsoon expected; monetary tightening by china already showing its effect as manufacturing slowed down in china; Indian rates might have peaked out; HAVE WE HIT BOTTOM NOW ATLEAST FOR SHORT TERM OF 5-6 MONTHS AND CAN WE MAKE NEW HIGH????????????????????????? |
Posted By: bail_shing
Date Posted: 04/May/2011 at 12:38pm
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Main reason for rising inflation were global factors and something
uncontrollable by RBI. Global cues already pointing out at inflation peak
and hence Indian rates might have peaked out (and maybe going ahead RBI will take credit for easing inflation)
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Posted By: VikasG
Date Posted: 04/May/2011 at 1:18pm
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People start finding reasons for fall when market has fallen a lot , and find reason for rise when market has risen a lot, while a real investor does the opposite.
People use Trading "Skills" while investing and Investing "Skills" while Trading. its really makes me sad. :(
Why do people want to ask "Have we hit bottom??? Can we make new high???" even when it will not atall make a difference if the "Market" i.e few basket of stocks take a index to new high or new lows,to a general portfolio.
All want to find a reason to blame for the market fall and as soon as market starts to rise , no one wants to even talk about the same reason "due to which the market was falling" as per them.
Eg:- Crude was around $90-$102 around the small correction around Jan-March 2011, The whole world was saying CRUDE !!!! CRUDE !!! CRUDE !!!! $100 !!! $100 !!! $100 !!! , and when market started to rise, no one is talking about crude at all , even when its currently at $113 and was rising continously from Jan 2011, and is still rising.
I am 100% confident that in the next 3-4 months you will read/hear/see people talking only 2 things = Crude and Inflation. while the market will do what it has to do, people will do what they have to do i.e talk what is obviously know to the whole world and will blame "XYZ" for the fall. but wont even learn from the mistake or try to understand the market.
(extremely sorry for the above post, but I wanted to take out my anger somewhere, Mods can delete if they find any wrong in it) ------------- Cutting losses is like performing surgery on one arm with the other’ |
Posted By: nikrod12
Date Posted: 04/May/2011 at 1:57pm
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No issues expressing your views VikasG. I agree with you. We cannot focus on macro, because we cannot predict it. We should be focussing on individual businesses.
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Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 04/May/2011 at 2:35pm
| VikasG - Many long term investors here will agree to your view point. |
Posted By: vijaygawde
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2011 at 2:41pm
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April 5 is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Beer_Day - International Beer Day but stock markets thought it is Intarnational Bear Day !! ------------- Diversification is protection against ignorance, it makes little sense for those who know what they’re doing. |
Posted By: SanaAH
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2011 at 4:17pm
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Our FM - Mr Pranab Mukherjee just assured nation that market fall was due to external factors, Current volatility is temporary and added that things are perfect and right in our market. Everyone is rattled and do not want to take any new position in the market.
Request Basant Sir to guide Teddies on what to do under such circumstances. Regards, |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2011 at 8:33pm
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What Pranabda did was his duty as an FM. You do what is essential for your portfolio and objective ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: dipankar66
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2011 at 8:37pm
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A great Monday to be watched after US downgrade by S&P, will probably make lot of investors poor indeed! ------------- DD |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2011 at 8:38pm
Ha ha ha....Bears do love beers!  |
Posted By: Jaishrikrishna
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2011 at 11:48am
Time for SS to return ------------- Don't Buy and Hold, Buy and Homework / Fish see the bait,but not the hook; Men see the profit, but not the peril. |
Posted By: rinkumalpani
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 1:16pm
SS????? |
Posted By: Jaishrikrishna
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 1:54pm
http://www.livemint.com/images/5A9C5FEE-247F-4C70-9F81-F643ADE6364BArtVPF.gif - HERE ------------- Don't Buy and Hold, Buy and Homework / Fish see the bait,but not the hook; Men see the profit, but not the peril. |
Posted By: rinkumalpani
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 3:57pm
| hmm...didn't SEBI put ssome sort of restrictions on him?? |
Posted By: rajnsharma
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 5:56pm
I think he was barred from the market for one year. ------------- Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: tejas.k
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 7:09pm
| I smell gloomy days ahead. (Considering the things in the US). If you looks back 8 months, sensex tested 17k levels and then surprised everyone with a rally till 19k levels. (i think this happened 2 or 3 times). Somehow I feel it wont happen this time. I am thinking of selling off all direct stock and mutual fund holdings. ( as of now. its not in loss. but i am sure it will). What strategies you guys are adopting? Please share your thoughts. I know panic selling during crash is herd mentality. But to me the debt issue all over the world is scary. Even in India, look at the number of people borrowing 90% for home loan. |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 7:35pm
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Posted By: nikrod12
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 9:24pm
For me personally wait and watch things unfolding. I'll keep concentrating on individual stocks. Seniors if have some strategy in mind, please share.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 9:52pm
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concentrate on individual businesses.do not average out a loosing postion .have conviction in the business you buy.
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Monkey
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 9:58pm
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Tejas,
I think it depends on individual's comfort levels. But, in my opinion, if you are in for long term and are able to withstand downside volatility, I feel it is worthwhile to stay put rather than trying to get in & get out. Timing entry & exit based on general "feel" of the market is extremely difficult and sentiments can change very quickly. It will just take some big bang announcement from Ben Bernanke like commencing QE3, for example, to turn the sentiment and produce a big rally on all risky assets. I have seen people exiting with intention of buying back at lower level. However, when things turn, they are usually slow to get in as it is very difficult to judge bottom and more often, people do not regain fully whatever they had. So, think over it & decide. Timing the market is not a good idea if you are looking beyond few years. Obviously, if your investments keep you awake at night, you must sell. For my part, I am almost 90% invested and intend to get to 100% in coming weeks (except for emergency fund worth one year expenses).
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Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 11:20pm
The sharp correction in the US and European markets should affect commodities also and once they start cracking that factor should be good for Indian markets. Most of the commodity rally seemed to have been due to the loads of money circulating in the system due to the effects of QE2. Now with money chasing growth as is always the case worldwide, after the initial panic which might even extend by a few more days/weeks more in Indian markets, Indian markets should again find favor with the foreign money. What one can do is to get rid of slow/non performers and latch on to stocks/companies which are going to come out stronger post this mayhem. Once the panic subsides, the rally might also be equally startling. My guess is we might be in for some smart rally in quality small/midcaps post the completion of the current panic. Till that time one can look forward to building/revising one's portfolio with good quality companies and be ready to bear the pain as and when it comes. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 12:01pm
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Well, nothing has changed....US runs deficits..we all knew that.. We did not need a credit agency to tell us that. US polity is fraction ridden. No surprises againThe great Fisher called out the deficit as a threat to the stock market in a 1990 interview WB has been calling it out as an issue for a decade now. My contribution to the speculative theories: Great crashes rarely happen when everyone is waiting for one. |
Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 9:02am
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THE JOKER in the pack cud be the Italy & Spain. Is the situation wrt to bonds really dangerous in these 2 countries??? http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/business/global/across-globe-traders-brace-for-a-downturn.html?ref=business ------------- Share market is nothing but a game of temperament. Success mantra Right Price,Right Business,Patience, Conviction .Do not do panic buying or selling.It may be the only profession where inactivity pays |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 11:25am
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--Yield on US indices is more than US treasury--
Statement from RD on cnbc today.What does this mean- |
Posted By: paps3535
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 11:30am
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Tejasji has initiated a nice topic for brainstorming...I was also in the state of mind as others were in...but finally I did some buying on friday...but still I have 20% cash..I am going to celebrate this week as "shopping week"....
(I am very much excited now...because this is the first time,Nifty kissed 5050 since i am in market...)
anyways it would be very interesting which strategy senior members adopt since they might have been through some crashes before...requesting other members to discuss their strategy...
------------- Everything has good end.if it is not good,then it is not the end. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 11:30am
There will be many jokers coming out of the pack.
But if one takes a calm detached view of Indian markets among all these negative developments: 1. Crude coming down to well below 85 bodes well for India. 2. Commodities again going down should be good news to Indian industry which is one of the larger consumer of commodities. 3. We seem to have made a third gap down today in the current downmove from around 5700 levels. Third gap usually signifies exhaustion of trend. 4. To anyone looking at the market screen there seems to be a lot of panic and fear. Lets see how we see this situation one or two months down the line. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2011 at 11:48am
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NY Times was quoting some carneige institute economist saying that Italy & spain bonds outstanding is around 2 trillion USD .
If Germany, France & other stronger nations of EU dont take care of their profligate younger brothers then the European crisis will turn into contagion worse than Lehman brothers crisi of 2008.
Views Invited ------------- Share market is nothing but a game of temperament. Success mantra Right Price,Right Business,Patience, Conviction .Do not do panic buying or selling.It may be the only profession where inactivity pays |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2011 at 8:28am
In Mungerilal household there is return of http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1099&KW=bade+nana&PID=117301#117301 - Bade Nana Ungli Manohar Laal to add to the woes of Mungeri. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2011 at 8:46am
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Well, some markets have technically entered into bear market territory. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2011 at 9:39am
| But how low can this one go?? I don't understand why all markets should go down at the same time...its just panic selling, but i would be a buyer at much lower levels. I think the Nifty would touch 4000 this time around!. |
Posted By: Jaishrikrishna
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2011 at 9:44am
Nobody know's ye kahan jaake rukega aur paltega, we just assume things in hindsight. ------------- Don't Buy and Hold, Buy and Homework / Fish see the bait,but not the hook; Men see the profit, but not the peril. |
Posted By: ppmatkari
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2011 at 11:31am
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This is no recession, just panic. S&P has given a timely & perfect reminder to politicians across the world to get their act together sooner than later. Once the volatility decreases, We will see divergence in performance of various markets based on their fundamental prospects, that will be a great time to enter into the markets. For once now i strongly feel decoupling theory will prove itself right in the next 6-12 months.
Diesel decontrol is one key policy initiative that will propel our economy & markets beyond 6300 & it looks more likely than ever before. Next few months will be the most opportune time for our economy when we can break out & become fastest growing in the world. Only risk to all this is our own fiscal policy i.e our politcians & beaurocrats now hold the key they can either make it or break it. |
Posted By: vittapoint
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2011 at 11:51am
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Indian markets have been relatively strong in last couple of days when global stock markets falling by almost 5%.
Today till 11:20 also market is very strong. Look at institutional turnover, for last couple of days DII have bought 1.3Kcr+1.3Kcr. I have hardly seen DII buying above 500cr. |
Posted By: vittapoint
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2011 at 11:53am
| Is cash rich LIC helping market not to fall heavily?? |
Posted By: nikrod12
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2011 at 11:59am
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LIC, GIC must be doing the usual stuff. If crude stays at sub-80 levels for few months, it'll help coll down the inflation. It will also reduce our fiscal deficit. Government anyways won't be able to meet divestment target of 40000 Cr this year, so cut in fiscal deficit in terms of diesel decontrol and lower crude will be a big plus. Let's see how things pan out but sentiments will prevent any bull run in this fiscal even if economy does extraordinarily well.
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Posted By: vijayM
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2011 at 1:57pm
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I saw in news clip that one can watch RJ at 7.30 today on cnbc reg this US crisis etc. He seems to be in wait & watch mode.
------------- If a business does well, the stock eventually follows:Warren Buffett |
Posted By: Vijkm
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2011 at 2:21pm
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Bottom-fishing? Hang on, let market settle: Big Bull Rakesh
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/bottom-fishing-hang-on-let-market-settle-big-bull-rakesh_574464.html ------------- Vijay |
Posted By: vittapoint
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2011 at 2:54pm
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kya hua? Ab Europe market ke nakhare kuon chalu ho gaye. All down by 5%
What will happen if DIIs also lost their confidence and start selling 
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Posted By: vittapoint
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2011 at 7:30pm
Yes again today DII buy is 1.4K cr. DII surely protecting market from sharp correction. India has not at all seen panic fall. Hope DII will keep on buying ti ll fII recovers 
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Posted By: tejas.k
Date Posted: 10/Aug/2011 at 11:15pm
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thanks Monkey. agree with you. but even with a long term view, things can be ugly in a 2008/2009 kind of crash. in that crash, we are lucky that it recovered very fast and even went to overvalued territory. i think one of things that will help is having a small number of stocks in the portfolio (of course with strong conviction). that way you wont be confused what to average out during a crash. anyways i have decided to get out of all mutual fund investment except HDFC equity and HDFC mid cap opportunities.
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Posted By: paps3535
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2011 at 12:45pm
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http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/views/recommendations/More-downfall-likely-in-global-markets-Shankar-Sharma-First-Global/articleshow/9658456.cms - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/views/recommendations/More-downfall-likely-in-global-markets-Shankar-Sharma-First-Global/articleshow/9658456.cms
SS is back now( as expected)... ------------- Everything has good end.if it is not good,then it is not the end. |
Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2011 at 1:36pm
Media brings him back when markets go down. I like him for sharing his view honestly. (my perception) ------------- Warm Regards, Kaushal |
Posted By: shontou
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2011 at 5:03pm
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Sharma ji ke liye main sirf yeh quote arz karonga:
"...if you live feeling like Your glass is half empty, well, It may as well be empty all the way." ------------- Every day, self-proclaimed stock market "experts" tell us why the market just went up or down, as if they really knew. So where were they yesterday? |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2011 at 5:13pm
Very correct But Iam glad to hear that sharmaji is bearish on markets as usual.When last bear turns bull that is the begining of real very long bear markets. Going by sharmaji's bearishness this might turn out to be normal correction (deep one) in long bull market. |
Posted By: valuepicks
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2011 at 6:03pm
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Just read the ET interview with shankar sharma. It sounded like he was drunk. From one topic to another, the guy jumps with no relevance.
The funny parts of the interview: Corruption has been helping Titan; Pizza is a terrible thing to eat; Anna with Gandhi topi is not a Gandhian; College goer has no stake in a anti-corruption movement (as per him corruption does not hurt a college student)
Sharmaji, pls drink a full bottle of buttermilk before you come to studio... tabito uttregi apki nasha...
------------- Investment Rule #1: Do not lose capital. Rule #2: Do not forget Rule #1 - Warren Buffett. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2011 at 6:20pm
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Intellectual vaccum, it is only the corrupt that will oppose Anna Hazare's movement. The other arguments can be a matter of opinion howsoever foolish that may sound.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Rehan
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2011 at 7:05pm
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I have turned a bear and I think many have going by the recent news and development. When the sentiments turn bearish , the economy turns bearish and the result also start showing recessionay effects. I think it is all psycholoical and sentimental. One leads to other. A bulllish sentiment creates optimism and then demand and then growth and reverse is the case of bearish sentiment. If recession hits USA , I think the world will go down with it as in past. India is coupled to USA and so is the world how much so ever hard we may say otherwise. Small economies dont make much difference to USA or the world economy like what happens in chad or niger or lomi togo or zaire but what happens in USA does have reverberations in the small economies though biggers ones get more effected than the minnows as minnow have very little to lose as it is. I think the ghost of 2008 has not gone and is not likely to go any time sooner. Just one trench was dug to fill the other . Thats what I think all this bail out business is and it is no solution.
Real solution is when USA consumes as much as it produces and so does china japan india and others. When currency values reflect their purchasing values. It can go on . All for a big bear case. If I can not buy in a mkt I should be selling and I am doing the same.
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