Symphony Comfort Systems - iPod of Cooler
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Microcaps-When will value.be unlocked?
Forum Discription: Micro cap companies waiting for value unlocking. This is for the patient long term investor These companies are neglected by the markets and are waiting for a catalyst.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2547
Printed Date: 26/Jun/2024 at 10:53pm
Topic: Symphony Comfort Systems - iPod of Cooler
Posted By: amitdip
Subject: Symphony Comfort Systems - iPod of Cooler
Date Posted: 01/Dec/2009 at 11:10am
|
Hi Guys,
I noticed this stock at 120 Rs, could not buy enough of it. It reminds me of Hawkins Cooker in 2002. Bought some at 125 and today some today at 152.90, thats 52 week high price. A Lynch flower in the desert, while others are busy fighting over AC market. There are three other organised players in coolers Bajaj, Kenstar and Usha Lexus. I look at it as Apple computers that designs aesthetic heaters and coolers. Good ----- - Brand Equity (as I have not seen TV ads for a decade but still remember from a decade old impression, I dont have TV at home) - Atleast couple IIMA VPs or President in past and present - Company lost its way in distribution and lost money, now set up its own distribution network - Probably an Ethical company - does not reveal info loosely by phone (this you have to tell me more with your sensors) - Promoters increased stake to 75 - Expanding overseas in over 30 countries, acquired this http://www.impcollc.com/ Negative --------- - Low dividend - Illiquid - Has run up 6 fold in last 12 months - Has court case pending against Champion Cooler of US http://www.rfcexpress.com/lawsuit.asp?id=49261 Cheers Amit |
Replies:
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 01/Dec/2009 at 11:17am
| Another positive, I am hoping its EPS to be 40 Rs this year and grow 25% atleast for a year or two. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2009 at 12:56pm
|
Looks like a good company.
EPS for June 09 ending full year is around 40. Interest cost for the year has increased from 7 lacs to 9 crores. Symphony as a brand is well recognised. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2009 at 12:58pm
|
I find it interesting because I wrote one line about this company in TED few years back and the market price that time was ~17. sometime it gives some confidence / pleasure on one's own analysis when that reacts positively in real! ------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2009 at 1:23pm
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Hitesh, Can you please clarify how is it 9 crores or is that a typo
Cheers
|
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2009 at 1:24pm
| That would have been a 10 bagger for your PKB..but yeah its great and can still go up another 5-10 times from here. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2009 at 1:31pm
Sorry, Its 91 lacs from 7 lacs. Most of results in bseindia are in millions, but I verified and this one is in lacs.  Blew it.
Regards, Hitesh. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2009 at 3:17pm
Right- what I think and wrong that I do. That has happened quite a few times including this one by not taking those stocks. Anyway, hopefully capital market will remain with me through out my life! ------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2009 at 7:08pm
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I bought this stock earlier. Since it is a brand and if they sustain their performance alongwith dividend, they can do well.. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2009 at 9:52am
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Bought some more @ 161 This would have been a much larger company by now if not for the drain and depletion of 2000 - 2004 due to bad debts. That is the only concern, sharing of wealth by virtue of dividends, if that rises each year then merely 'doing well' will become an understatement. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2009 at 11:20am
| Its got some terrific earnings per share. Hopefully it would keep improving YOY. I noticed a huge run up with Kwality Dairy and I think something like that cna happen in this stock to. Better to take some exposure. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 03/Dec/2009 at 12:39pm
Hi, What could be the risks with this company? There are very few players with established brands in the space in which it operates and hence less chance of losing brand value. Financially seems okay. Regards, Hitesh. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 03/Dec/2009 at 1:04pm
|
Risks could be stock returning to 20 Rs in depressed sentiments, low dividend creates shaky ground in bad times.
Another risk could be mindless expansion overseas. I searched for their vacancies in naukri and other job portals, they are recruiting for mexico, middle east, australia and other hot climates. Yet another risk could be Bajaj or Usha Lexus usurping #1 pole position. Good news is there is no foreign competition so we will see competition coming in March and June numbers every year. So far they are growing 50% plus topline for the past 4 years. I have written to them to explain Wholly Owned Subsidiary in Singapore and divesting 51 stake in it, so risk is owners getting greedy and not sharing wealth. But they seem to be in business for ages, another Bakeri company is into construction, so appear well heeled. I cant see a genious required to make such products. Positives outweigh at this point esp. if they gradually extend to other products too and importantly increase dividend even by 1-2 Rs each year, so next 1-2 years should guide us. Regards Amit |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 1:06pm
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Reply to my query from Management
========================================= Date: 05 December 2009 Mr. Amit Arora Subject: A brief query Dear Sir, We refer to your email dated 30/11/2009 and furnish hereunder point wise details as desired by you. a) Reduction of holding in Singapore subsidiary to 49%. Earlier, a company in Singapore was incorporated by Symphony Comfort Systems Ltd., as its 100% Wholly Owned subsidiary. The company was incorporated with a very small paid up capital base. After some time, it was felt that the entire capital may not necessary to be held by Symphony Comfort Systems Ltd. and hence further issue of equity by the said company in Singapore was not fully subscribed by Symphony Comfort Systems Ltd. The balance portion of their capital was subscribed other entities. Therefore the stake of Symphony Comfort Systems Ltd. is now reduced to 49%. b) Intellectual Property matter in USA:- As regards to the legal matter referred by you regarding the intellectual property in USA with Symphony-Impco as defendants and plaintiff: Champion cooler corporation, we state that Symphony Comfort Systems Ltd. has no relevance. The matter has been referred to our legal counsel to respond it suitably. Thanking you, For SYMPHONY COMFORT SYSTEMS LTD. Chandrakant Gnadhi Company Secretary |
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 30/Dec/2009 at 9:03pm
|
three days of circuit.. the stock came to my notice...
Terrific company.. good brand recall.. no competition in organised sector... great financial.. cheap valuation.. promoter increased a stake... Nice find Amitji..... 
gosh i have to learn a lot from these ppl... |
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2009 at 2:44pm
| Another day at circuit... |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2009 at 3:42pm
| On low volumes, meaning people aren't willing to sell or those holding are sleeping. |
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2009 at 4:13pm
|
check out the delivery%.. it is close to 95%....ppl are siting tight with there holdings... increased 75% promoter holding and low equity base are also reason for low volume Damn i am only able to buy small quantity... |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2009 at 12:53pm
|
Its actually 99.63% today. Only 20 shares were traded.
High delivery is true for any illiquid share you name it.
|
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2010 at 10:41pm
20 shares were LTQ (ie last traded quantity 2741 shares were TTQ (ie total traded quantity) source: http://www.bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=517385 |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2010 at 6:22am
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Thanks for clarifying 20 being LTQ.
Infact only 10 shares were intra day traded, rest 2731 taken delivery 2731/2741 = 99.63% Thats right, low floating stock with public is another reason, thats a qualitative filter in stock selection |
Posted By: Rehan
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2010 at 6:59pm
| I think it has a lot of catching up to do with its intrinsic value. I think Amit made a wonderful find. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2010 at 8:11pm
| yeah amit, its an excellent find. the low volumes with high and growing earnings would definately keep pushing this up as the markets keep doing well. Its already a 6 bagger since march. i too picked up a little volume, though i want to increase exposure...the problem with stocks is it gets recognized suddenly and then people keep buying and the volumes are not available for you to buy...compact disc was kind of similar but because of bad management it is not picking up. anyway lets see how high it can go! Kwality dairy is doing somewhat similar. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2010 at 7:10am
|
Kwality Dairy seems manipulated at P/E of 250,
sebi investigation: http://www.sebi.gov.in/press/2009/2009368.html |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2010 at 10:12am
| yeah i know about the kwality dairy investigation..and perhaps a bad example, but symphony is highly undervalued, so valuations can go up a lot for this too, and even then it would not appear very expensive. its upper circuit today too:) |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 1:45pm
|
bajaj electricals is at an eps of 51 and is growing at 25-30% at price of 875, this should so same or better eps and in next six months we'll know if it grows faster than bajaj or not.
think 2-3 years ahead, eps of 100-125, p/e of 15-20, share price 2500-3000, but probably very few will hold that long, maybe not even myself
|
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 2:04pm
I guess Bajaj Electrical witnessed growth in EPS due to increase in project related revenue... which is not very stable revenue stream... One thing i like about management is that its product focus and brand building.... First Cooler... then geysers.. now AC.... i mean promoters are not buyin real estate in somewhere in timbuktu.. because of so called "low valuation", which is mostly the case in micro cap companies.. Promoters are serious about growing their business... |
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 2:14pm
| Has company came out with its June 2009 AR ?? |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 3:00pm
| Yeah if the buying interest sustains then 2000-3000 is also possible...but a price of 800+ looks pretty much possible with existing earnings and growth in earnings. Today also there were all buyers but no sellers. Seems like a good bet to hold!. |
Posted By: Khan
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 3:29pm
|
Today there are no sellers. When a time comes to sell there might be no buyers. These are perils of an illiquid stock. ------------- If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you've always gotten |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 9:43am
But that is the point..you need to only sell when you think there is no value left in the stock, else you can hold it for a very long time. Symphony is like that, with a proven earnings record. so irrespective of what happens i need not sell it, unless valuations are way off. It is just being recognised, so it would take a long time before valuations are really stretched.. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 10:38am
They have said that they dispatched AR on 2nd of December, I checked with my brother in India who should have received it, he does not remember top of his head, will have to look at my mails. Company told me they have/are sending dividend cheques which we will receive shortly - those who bought before 19th of December. If you dont have AR June 09 then you can ring up and request for one, you can talk to Sudhir Kulkarni, he is a thorough gentleman or Company Secretary - Chandrakant Gandhi. http://symphonycomfort.com/contactus.html Regards Amit |
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2010 at 10:16pm
Any company management would be polite and helpful... if they get a call from abroad askin their financials.. thinkin an FII called up 
i did emailed(address given at BSE site)them my query quite a time back but haven't heard anythin uptill now... guess i need some NRI friends to get my question solved..
|
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2010 at 9:10am
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it is down circuit today.. hope you guys are loading up on this ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2010 at 10:26am
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No $ mate,
Just send a reply to your email again with a line, "I am still waiting" in subject line, they will reply. Or ring up Regards
|
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2010 at 10:28am
Loading up is not possible only 500 shares can be bought per day
|
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2010 at 11:00am
For me 500 shares would cost a bomb  but still why only 500 shares?? is it something to do with category stock? |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2010 at 11:08am
|
Material wealth is only relative, earth is like a speck in space, so is our lifespan in eternity. Stay invested in nifty and your relative wealth will be 100s fold in decades.
Thats right, a SEBI link/document can clarify exactly, but you are right depending on category, some shares only 200 , some 500, but if volumes per day rises above a certain number then according to a certain /threshhold/formula one can buy some more Regards
|
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 06/Jan/2010 at 12:33pm
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just one dumb question..why was it not recognized by market earlier.. any visible reason? ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 06/Jan/2010 at 12:54pm
:) partly as it was running losses and paid no dividends for several years due to bad debts in distribution network.
|
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 06/Jan/2010 at 1:10pm
Most of the stocks discussed by us have the same precedent, not recognized by markets. I usually see that most of the people buy only on someone's reco only without doing any research and hence market lags behind original research ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 06/Jan/2010 at 1:15pm
|
so are all these issues resolved except the dividend one??.. that could come after sustained earnings i guess ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 06/Jan/2010 at 1:53pm
| I was too slow to react both on the upside and downside, though i hold a little bit. Will try to buy tomorrow if it falls again:) |
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 06/Jan/2010 at 2:35pm
Hmm.... If i infer it correctly.. first u need to buy your research and then u need to promote your research to get the fair value of your research... else you wont land up gettin fair of your research.... |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 07/Jan/2010 at 1:57pm
|
again in down circuit and volumes are very low but crossing 2 week avg. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: manish_okhade
Date Posted: 07/Jan/2010 at 6:16pm
| What are the growth drivers? Why it should continue to increase EPS for years ahead? |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 07/Jan/2010 at 8:55am
|
innovation,brands and global warming ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 08/Jan/2010 at 12:01pm
Thats what they call themselves too "artists of innovation" http://jobs.monsterindia.com/details/7723287.html?sig=js-1-51558ba10491921e1989e23fdb9ccd1f-1 "While the responsibilities will cover the entire gamut of HR activities, some of the key areas of concern to the organization at the moment include recruitment at the local and international levels" |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 08/Jan/2010 at 12:09pm
Same as for any other consumer durables company in India. In hindsight its already a hundred bagger from 2003, was languishing at 2-3 Rs. Story can turn out to be better or worse, but my expectations are Jan - June 2010 EPS 65 Rs Jan - June 2011 EPS 90 Rs EPS Jan - June 2012 EPS 125 Rs EPS, and increase of dividends if they dont turn out so we can sell in six months, conversely we can wait for six months till July 2010 to wait for results. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 08/Jan/2010 at 12:43pm
|
it looks they reprt good EPS in first 6 months only and later half is just time pass..
Amit, how about their international plans.. is it going good too? ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: manish_okhade
Date Posted: 08/Jan/2010 at 1:00pm
Good to see the forcast but it helps if you can share reasons for growth like:
1) Capacity expansion plan
2) Expansion of distribution n/w
3) Any tie-ups, foreign collaboration erc.
4) RnD - new product launch
5) Any focus on mktg budget/strategy
One can add more, i stated above just as an example of what details i am looking for before taking a stand.
|
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 08/Jan/2010 at 3:25pm
|
Hi Manish,
Im afraid I dont know about any such precise expansion plans nor media statements from company. I trust you may get your specific answers by one the persons inside http://symphonycomfort.com/contactus.html. One can only see the effort company is making, then its just wait and watch, also this is no cant-miss-opportunity, one can always join the party later. There is another small company that off late i am liking and accumulating, which has come out with media statements about expansion. Its a delhi based shoe/slippers company now intending to go nation wide. their website seems to be broken http://www.relaxofootwear.com/ it was with RJ too in year 2006-07 Regards |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2010 at 12:48pm
|
An old presentation
http://www.slideshare.net/symphonycomfort/corporate-presentation-2702837 |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2010 at 4:24pm
|
Amit, thanks for the link!! no doubt this company has got great products and brands in place.. it is little surprising how could they falter in between...how has been corp. governance etc? ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2010 at 9:31am
Amit, RJ i think also was invested in Metro Shoes of mumbai, pretty much for the same reason. maybe thats why he divested out of relaxo and into Metro. They are not public, but were planning to go nation wide too. Symphony has halted its march, but thats the problem with small cap...unless markets are peaking, these can lose attention very quickly. Do you have any information on their growth plans? sorry wasn't able to download the presentation because of firewall restrictions, would look into it later. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2010 at 11:21am
Im pretty certain about expansion plans in Mexico, US, Gulf besides India - something of this nature should be mentioned in latest annual report too. Next six months should provide adequate signal whether expansion elevates synergy or not, and growth of heaters, mind you its summers in South Africa, Australia, NZ/southern hemisphere so if expansion works then December Qrts in future years should look good. But many a company returned back with defeat on foreign shores including Titan Industries. Cheers |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2010 at 11:23am
| If i remember correctly Walmart was trounced too in Germany and they packed up their bags.. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2010 at 11:54am
|
Hiring on in Mexico:
http://www.linkedin.com/companies/symphony-comfort-systems-limited presence in 40+ countries, they are already making money and breaking even in several countries; http://www.symphonycomfort.com/corporate_brochure.pdf |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 12:28pm
|
They roped in 12 year old COO of Kenstar Appliances ;)
six months back http://www.naymz.com/rash_gargieya_2771742 I'll continue digging with unabated zeal... |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 12:41pm
|
mexico subsidiary website:
http://www.impco.com.mx/ country manager Iran 
http://www.timesjobs.com/candidate/JobDetailView.html?adId=a7canMBCSV1zpSvf+uAgZw==&bc=INT&searchName=inner&from=submit |
Posted By: manish_okhade
Date Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 12:46pm
|
Why Sept 09 qtr is so bad all of sudden? Its posting poor sale and loss?
http://www.religareonline.com/fundamental.asp?PageType=PROFILE&SearchString=symphony&Location - http://www.religareonline.com/fundamental.asp?PageType=PROFILE&SearchString=symphony&Location =
|
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 12:54pm
Do you realize the main business of company ? selling air coolers mainly ! I am actually quite pleased with Sep Qrtr result, sales up 300% given that they are primarily selling coolers in India/Gulf which are in northern hemisphere; meaning warm together at same time; those who want to buy coolers will do so max by April/May/June; nobody wants to buy cooler in second half of year in northern hemisphere. increased sales in september quarter means water heater establishing itself. |
Posted By: manish_okhade
Date Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 1:16pm
|
Do you realize the main business of company ? selling air coolers mainly !
By this logic OCT-DEC should be even worse! Who will buy coolers in winters
? |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 1:22pm
Its peak summers in australia/nz/south africa/south america in december so... plus water heaters can be required in india QoQ comparison need to be done with previous years qrtr and not preceding qrtr in seasonal businesses |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 1:43pm
|
I think they are going nuts all over the place
http://www.alluaejobs.com/recruiter_symphony%20comfort%20systems%20ltd._17141.html Manish, another trivia for you which 99.9% people dont know; Magnetic compass is also for either northern or southern hemisphere; same compass does not work on both sides; or it has to be calibrated for balance Cheers |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 10:38am
|
managed to buy just in time
looks like i bought just at resistance level..it is facing huge resistance ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 19/Jan/2010 at 9:45am
| yeah this one is doing really well...inspite of a slight correction its been rising very quickly..already up close to 80% in a month..it sure has a lot more potential to go up though! |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 21/Jan/2010 at 2:17pm
|
no buyer at all!! this is an issue with illiquid counters ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 21/Jan/2010 at 2:27pm
------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 21/Jan/2010 at 2:33pm
|
no PKBji.. not at all .. just an observation ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 21/Jan/2010 at 2:38pm
Last I sold them at 24 rs!. It is really hard and tough mind is required to buy them in this price. But I believe after 5 days it can give more return than what LNT can give! ------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 21/Jan/2010 at 2:45pm
|
if it maintains current level of profitability it deserves MCap~ 500 Cr at least.. around 3X from here. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 21/Jan/2010 at 11:54pm
|
I think we need to contain our enthusiasm just for 6 more months before really thumping our chest.
If this growth continues or even slows down to 25% in topline/bottomline, then essentially what market is saying is, "Symphony Comfort is a piece of crap, it has no hope, I'll give it a P/E of only 3". Then we can enjoy the rest of the movie locked and loaded. Cheers |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2010 at 5:20am
|
Symphony - the only evaporative air cooler with 5* ratings on this shopping site:
http://www.air-n-water.com/swamp-coolers-evaporative.htm Their own website has changed too, it will be interesting to see how hard they are push commercial and industrial coolers to India, this capability came through overseas acquisition. It should make sense in certain types of factories because cost of running is 1/4th that of air conditioner. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2010 at 5:47am
|
Commercial/Industrial application:
http://www.impcollc.com/pdfs/manuales/industrial_high_premium.pdf |
Posted By: srisaurabh2000
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2010 at 8:57am
|
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2010 at 3:37am
|
At Berkshire Hathaway's 1999 annual meeting, he said: "If I had $10,000 to invest, I would probably focus on smaller companies because there would be a greater chance that something was overlooked in that arena."
http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2001/foth010710.htm |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2010 at 6:47pm
|
Dec'09 EPS 4.15 Vs 2.51 and half year by Dec'09 EPS at 3.34 Vs 0.52 ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2010 at 11:31pm
|
Wonderful set of results there; upside surprise, I was expecting 25-30% growth, probably it is over low base so looks terrific:
Sales up 65% Operating profit up 150% Provision for income tax is on higher side affecting EPS. EPS Growth 65% Dec 09 Dec 08 Sales 25.67 Cr 15.48 Cr O. Profit 3.78 Cr 1.51 Cr EPS 4.51 2.51 Employee cost up 50%, expansion/hiring ongoing. We can expect similar growth - finger crossed - in March and June translating to annualised EPS of 60-80 Rs this year and 80 - 100 Rs EPS next year There will be short term selling pressure, because those who bought it in IPO, 1990s and Noughts are suddenly waking up to see it above 150Rs, reason is folks received a dividend cheque last week from Symphony after ages; some equate it as free money from winter clothes are finding certificates to sell ! |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2010 at 11:43pm
|
It is heartening to looking at second page of results on BSE website; results have improved due to domestic sales primarily and not sales of more coolers overseas in southern hemisphere. Safe to assume that December quarter will break even in future and its 5* Sauna water heater is an entrenched candidate in consumer durables space.
Domestic sales at 22 Cr from 14 Cr Exports up 3 Cr from 1 Cr |
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2010 at 2:09pm
|
Yup.. amazing set of numbers.. but the only concern is rising interest cost... Does anyone has AR09 for this.... i need to look at Cash Flows.... ------------- I buy businesses... |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2010 at 11:58pm
Its already there with my folks and I will get it on the 19th of Feb as they are coming here, then I can let you know; alternatively email [email protected] for this. I looked at the interest cost too; in June 09 it was 77 lacs; this time around 40 something lacs; it could be for working capital/expansion, but looking at AR will clarify. With annual profits of 40 crores; 2-3 crores of interest is easily serviceable, but who does not like debt free, cash flow+ companies. Cheers |
Posted By: $x$=$
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2010 at 10:04am
|
deleted ------------- I buy businesses... |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 29/Jan/2010 at 12:57pm
|
One FII acquired about 7000 shares in this stock between Sep 09 and Dec 09 quarter.
Can someone guide me as to how to find out about details of FIIs just as moneycontrol website shows MF holding for a script ? |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 29/Jan/2010 at 11:26pm
If it is a Bulk Deal (min 0.5% of the share capital) or a Block Deal (minimum 5 lac shares or Rs. 5 crores), then it will be poated on NSE/BSE.
------------- When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 29/Jan/2010 at 1:24am
Thanks for the info rapid |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2010 at 3:02am
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I am quite optimistic and both Symphony and Relaxo for EPS explosion, PE rerating, FII rush on the doors. Why have small caps returned 13% in last 100 years and index stocks 2-3% less than that ? Its because of PE re-rating mainly, when small caps become mid and big caps or are taken over. Buyers pay premium on survival and Funds buy only known companies. Where there is honey, bees will come, when FIIs notice EPS of 100 Rs money will flow: We should ask outselves this question first : What are the chances that Symphony Comfort and Relaxo will be bankrupt in 2015-2020 ? http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/features/brand-equity/Companies-waking-up-to-packaging-to-lure-customers/articleshow/5503226.cms http://www.elephantdesign.com/DesktopModules/Elephant/EndUser/Elephant_NewsDetailPopUp.aspx?NewsId=51 http://www.elephantdesign.com/Default.aspx?TabID=96&CsID=59&CstID=13 http://www.elephantdesign.com/Default.aspx?TabID=96&CsID=47&CstID=13 http://www.elephantdesign.com/Default.aspx?TabID=96&CsID=48&CstID=13 |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 04/Feb/2010 at 11:33am
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Amit, you have soft copy of the '09 annual report? ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2010 at 2:44pm
I'll get the hard copy on the 19th of this month and will type out salient points. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2010 at 3:03pm
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that's great!! ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2010 at 2:52am
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http://www.hbjcapital.com/2010/02/symphony-comfort-systems-growing.html - http://www.hbjcapital.com/2010/02/symphony-comfort-systems-growing.html I think they are not accounting for Water Heaters and importantly Industrial Cooling. In a super price sensitive country like India, factories will go for something costing 1/4th to 1/5th both in terms of Capex and Opex costs, i.e. if the factory nature allows evaporative cooling as opposed to AC. Industrial cooling icing on cake... I guess re-rating will happen only if couple of FIIs enter. Hold hold and accumulate patiently Cheers |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2010 at 3:43am
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Re-rating can happen by MFs too. In above article, he is talking about 55 Cr Net Profit for year ending June 2010. EPS turns out to 78.5 Rs EPS. Also, I think above article is a little harsh on Air Coolers, they will be around for a long time instead of predicting their premature demise. After all they are still sold in all major US supermarkets in 2010 ! a country with Per Capita of 40,000 USD, compare this to India's 1,000 USD per capita But Air Coolers being a no-growth with nary a new entrant just gives me a reason to dream in daytime. |
Posted By: Rehan
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2010 at 10:27am
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Amit
Any statistics available on the total aircooler market in India and the world over the last few years to understand the trend. I am surprised to know that cooler mkt is shrinking in absolute terms and giving way to ACs. I am sure in hot and dry areas like north india , coolers will be more effective than ACs besides being much cost effective. With improved purchasing power of the middle and lower middle class consumers , I think the market should only be expanding.
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Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2010 at 11:15am
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Hi Rehan,
i am not sure about the size of aircooler market, but it can be anywhere between 2000 crore to 10,000 crore INR per annum, most of it in un-organised sector. I would consider it *not* dropping in Rs volumes per annum, a decent cooler is around 4 -7,000 Rs i am fully aware of families with around 1 lac rs per month home take earnings also have a cooler in one of the rooms of the house and they can have ACs in other couple rooms. Some houses may have only ACs. So the trend is replacement towards ACs, but you have to realize what happens in high growth industries - intense comptetion. I would tend to agree with your theory that when rural india upgrades, it will move to decent coolers and not AC right away. Also, just as ceiling fan isnt dead so far, air cooler wont be. We should congratulate ourselves that air cooler industry is "perceived" as a no-growth industry or worse still, 'dying' industry. I would be ecstatic if that is a widely held belief in industry, then no serious deep pocketed company will try to market/advertise/manufacture air cooler. Thats why i mentioned this company as metaphorically and literally Lynch flower in desert (cooler). Be sure of breezy days ahead (unless there is something about Management integrity I dont know so far ) Cheers |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2010 at 11:55am
I think this is where our Analyst got data from http://www.financialexpress.com/news/aircoolers-market-share-goes-cold/197951/ Price of cooler and AC will converge in couple of years and only 2-3 air cooler companies will survive, and they will hike price every year by 2-3%, that will make them Sees candy or so I like to dream ( its free ). However in a price sensitive country as ours, OPEX cost will always favour value investors and users alike ;-) Another article http://www.financialexpress.com/news/kenstar-plans-major-export-thrust/99500/ |
Posted By: Rehan
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2010 at 10:55pm
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Amit
Thanks for all the info.
If we see
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/aircoolers-market-share-goes-cold/197951/ - http://www.financialexpress.com/news/aircoolers-market-share-goes-cold/197951/
organised sector market share is 10 % ( Year 2007) which increased to 20 % in 2009 as per
http://www.hbjcapital.com/2010/02/symphony-comfort-systems-growing.html - http://www.hbjcapital.com/2010/02/symphony-comfort-systems-growing.html
this means a doubling for organised in 2 years flat .
I doubt that cooler market is shrinking though both the above articles say but without any data to support this shrinkage. I think we need more research on this to arrive at the truth. This may not be easy as major chunk is with unorganised.
Just think of it , market shrinking and symphony shows more than 80 % growth YOY (2007- 43 cr, 2008- 75 Cr, 2009- 143 Cr)
If the market expands where will these figures be.....
I continue to remain very bullish on this and would look for adding more
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Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2010 at 12:27pm
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You're welcome Rehan
I am not too worried about growth of air cooler industry, I'd rather wish it is flat in volume terms and growing only in Rs coz of higher sale price each year. This prevents new entrants from considering this business. Symphony will end up making supernormal profits in a no-growth industry, history is replete with examples of one or two strong player in decrepit industries that have returned diamonds back to their investors, several of them mentioned in Lynch's book. Then company can deploy cash in growing more and more capacity, buy small outfits and corner 50% chunk of cooler market in India. That is the hope. But the cooler market may very well be growing. I doubt the veracity of above articles; if you read this link, http://www.financialexpress.com/news/kenstar-plans-major-export-thrust/99500/, it talks about Kenstar having 50% stake in cooler market. Other article does not even mention Kenstar and talks about Symphony and Bajaj as last two men standing. The whole branded consumer space in India is on fire, any big drops over next few years in TTK, Hawkins, Bajaj Electricals just buy and forget |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2010 at 12:47pm
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It seem between 2001 and 2005 Symphony squeezed the hell out of Kenstar and dethroned its Numero Uno position. Now Symphony has 50% market share in branded segment, this is 2004 report: http://www.blonnet.com/2004/03/20/stories/2004032001670600.htm, In 2004 branded segment sold 3 lac units, unorganised 10 lacs. Today the branded:unbranded ratio is same but market size of coolers has definitely increased. Unbranded segment is at a huge advantage due to avoidance of tax.
Kenstar had 50% share in 2001 http://www.financialexpress.com/news/kitchen-appliances-relaunches-kenstar-range-of-air-coolers/46630/ Besides Symphony recently got Kenstar COO, IIM A alumni and a decent management team, Achal Bakeri himself is an MBA from US ;-) |
Posted By: Kautilya
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2010 at 8:34am
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Just had a look a Symphony and following questions came up... 1. Any idea how much of the revenue is coming from coolers and how much is coming from Heaters,AC,etc., ? 2. In Dec 09, 21 Cr shown as "Other Expenses". What could this be? 3. BV is about 73. The Current Price of 186 it is quoting at 2.5x the BV, mainly because of good earnings. Any drop in earnings will bring down the stock price to the levels where it was languishing before. I understand that earnings estimate are expected to be good going ahead. Has the management given any guidance about this? Thanks. |
Posted By: amitdip
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2010 at 9:12am
I'll be able to answer #1 and #2 after I go thru AR09. All companies have Other expenses that does not fall in this concise reporting category. BV for consumer businesses is not to be looked at seriously. Look at Titan Industries or Hawkins Cooker script with 14 - 20 times Book Value. Correct metrics are ROE, ROCE and Cash Flows for these types of businesses. Share was languishing at 2Rs in 2003. I doubt we will see it again in our lifetime. Cheers |