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Voltamp Transformer - Gem in the Dust

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Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Sector talk
Forum Discription: Discussion on sectors with regard to specific matters. We will be discussing the various sectors of the economy and how they would perform. Basically a top down approach.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2110
Printed Date: 26/Jun/2024 at 11:18pm


Topic: Voltamp Transformer - Gem in the Dust
Posted By: basant
Subject: Voltamp Transformer - Gem in the Dust
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2009 at 1:07pm
Does anyone have any idea on transformer companies.


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in



Replies:
Posted By: Shikari_Shambu
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2009 at 7:45pm
The Universe is as below ( as per dalaal street print edition).Not sure why they grouped under two separate divisions.

ELECTRIC EQUIPMENT - TRANSFORMERS

(TTM Sales in brackets in crores)

Bharat Bijlee (641)
Emco Ltd (964)
IMP Powers(156)
RTS Power corporation (128)

POWER - TRANSMISSION/EQUIPMENT
Alstom Projects Ind ( 2001)
Areva T&D India ( 2703)
Indo Tech Transformers (222)
Jyoti Structures ( 1680)
Kalpataru Power (1964)
KEC International ( 3378)
Power Grid Corporation ( 5878)
Shriram EPC Ltd ( 903)
Sujana Towers Ltd (554)
Sunil Hitech Enginee (502)
Transformers and Rectifiers ( 400)
Voltamp Transformers ( 712)

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Some points :-
1) It will be very hard to find a pure transformer manufacturing company since Transformers come under the Power Generation / Transmission / Distribution and most of the players above are EPC contractors. Some of them do turnkey projects and some do just fabrication,etc. Most companies are into manufacturing of other electrical equipment too like motors,etc
2) Power Grid/ State Electricity Boards would be the major order givers to these companies in Transmission / Distribution( it will change since privatisation of power distribution is showing traction). However, some like Bharat Bijlee export equipment too.
3) The capabilities of each company differ a lot in terms of manufacturing for different voltages,etc ( oil filled power transformer, oil filled distribution transformer, resin impregnated dry type transformer and cast resin type transformer )

The below link is a good one to study Transformer Industry in India (even though it is a bit old)

http://webcompilationster.googlepages.com/IndianTransformer120207-IIL.pdf





Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Apr/2009 at 2:12pm
Voltamp looks the best of the lot. Company has Rs 60 in cash stock trades at less then 5 times Fy09! Even if one assumes a degrowth in Fy10 the stock is very very cheap!
 
Originally posted by Shikari_Shambu

The Universe is as below ( as per dalaal street print edition).Not sure why they grouped under two separate divisions.

ELECTRIC EQUIPMENT - TRANSFORMERS

(TTM Sales in brackets in crores)

Bharat Bijlee (641)
Emco Ltd (964)
IMP Powers(156)
RTS Power corporation (128)

POWER - TRANSMISSION/EQUIPMENT
Alstom Projects Ind ( 2001)
Areva T&D India ( 2703)
Indo Tech Transformers (222)
Jyoti Structures ( 1680)
Kalpataru Power (1964)
KEC International ( 3378)
Power Grid Corporation ( 5878)
Shriram EPC Ltd ( 903)
Sujana Towers Ltd (554)
Sunil Hitech Enginee (502)
Transformers and Rectifiers ( 400)
Voltamp Transformers ( 712)

----------------------
Some points :-
1) It will be very hard to find a pure transformer manufacturing company since Transformers come under the Power Generation / Transmission / Distribution and most of the players above are EPC contractors. Some of them do turnkey projects and some do just fabrication,etc. Most companies are into manufacturing of other electrical equipment too like motors,etc
2) Power Grid/ State Electricity Boards would be the major order givers to these companies in Transmission / Distribution( it will change since privatisation of power distribution is showing traction). However, some like Bharat Bijlee export equipment too.
3) The capabilities of each company differ a lot in terms of manufacturing for different voltages,etc ( oil filled power transformer, oil filled distribution transformer, resin impregnated dry type transformer and cast resin type transformer )

The below link is a good one to study Transformer Industry in India (even though it is a bit old)

http://webcompilationster.googlepages.com/IndianTransformer120207-IIL.pdf





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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: karthikr80
Date Posted: 01/Apr/2009 at 9:04pm
I too like Voltamp, Also Have bharat bijlee.
Bharat Bijlee exists for more than 50 years.. its last 7 years earnings
growth is good. Rewarded shareholders a lot in that period.



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karthik


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Apr/2009 at 10:16pm
BB has Rs 180 per share in  investments also pays higher dividend but their promoters are a bit laid back according to some analysts.
 
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 01/Apr/2009 at 10:28pm
Originally posted by basant

BB has Rs 180 per share in  investments also pays higher dividend but their promoters are a bit laid back according to some analysts.
 
 


Less risk of cooking the books or overextending themselves?


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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Apr/2009 at 7:27am
We need to get out of the Satyam syndrome. Also the biggest indicator for over extension is the debt equity ratio.
 
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 01/Apr/2009 at 8:12am
Originally posted by basant

We need to get out of the Satyam syndrome. Also the biggest indicator for over extension is the debt equity ratio.
  
OK, we'll start about Wockhardt Ouch.

Anyway, I understand that this company is currently "debt-free". Low raw material prices should help. Of course, demand has to pick up...


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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2009 at 5:52pm
One of the reports suggest that low material prices do not affect it quite favourably because many of the contracts are cost plus but at some point in valuation one needs to ignore the extarnalities. ALso
companies that are dependent on SEBs will be able to keep their flag flying high. That is because any Govt. which comes to power will start with "power".
 
Now a stock that trades at 3 times Ex cash indicates that the company can theoratically earn back its market cap in 36 months with zero growth and at that  valuation we do ignore the worst as being priced into the stock in case one can get it at that valuation with some degree of research that earnings are real and not just on paper.
 
The environement in case industrial recovery does not happen will deteriorate quite fast though and that is the only threat.
 
 
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2009 at 9:52pm
http://moneycontrol.com/india/news/recommendations/buy-emcotarget-rs-55krchoksey/21/10/392801 - EMCO .

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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2009 at 10:24pm

EMCO's RoE is quite low compared to its peer group. It also carries a lot of debt. In tough times we need companies with cash on B/S rather then Debt.

Power generation is a regulated RoE business and makes a stock less interesting we need free Cash flowing businesses with smaller and thinner Balance Sheets and there my choices are limited but the kind of batterting these stocks have taken over the past 15 months even with a 30% upmove in the past few days there does seem a scope for more.

 
Also if one stock moves moves so would the other transformer companies the stock correlation within the sector is strong.
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2009 at 10:40pm
So basant bhai you still think this are tough times?

don't you feel that most of the worst is over?

i personally feel that the worst in stock price is over, but i do think the real economy will still be grow slow .......and down the line lot of stock might suffer..........cause of missed or lower earning. But at the moment the stocks bottom has been made.

But this is coming from a trader's view ..........what do u say


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2009 at 10:50pm
The worst is over in the stock price maybe but not in the results. If this is agenuine recovery stock prices will keep rising as companies report bad results just as stocks kept falling as companies reported good results.
 
But who knows whether the pain is over or will continue for a couple of quarters so we need to buy the stocks with lowest debt and high return ratios and companies that are run by good aggressive managements who know where to park their cash!
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2009 at 12:41pm
BBL just hit the upper circuit!

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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2009 at 1:17pm
Yes, all transformer companies are on a roll Voltamp is up some 13%. they were going for a song about 15-25 days back and now they are singing a different tune.
 
I do not know whether this is a suckers rally or a dead cat bounce but this rally has created a sense of excitement just see the way in which the smaller companies are participating.
 
There seems to be a buyer's panic!
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2009 at 1:38pm
Do these transformer companies have any moat? As I understand normal tranformers are commodity business with a large number of unlisted players across country.


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2009 at 1:44pm
Originally posted by nav_1996

Do these transformer companies have any moat? As I understand normal tranformers are commodity business with a large number of unlisted players across country.


I guess the moat may be found at the time of quoting for tenders. The buyer may specify certain criteria that keep the small fry away.


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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2009 at 1:50pm
WHen you have stocks trading at 3 times ex cash one can ignore the moat.


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Shikari_Shambu
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2009 at 2:31pm
In the last few days, I had added Voltamp in good quantity. It is very very cheap even after the rally of about 70% from the lows it made.
 
At 466, it is at a P/E of 4.43 and market cap of 472 crores. Zero debt company and ROE is 48.5 ( steadily increasing).
 
I am banking on this to be a multibagger ( PE expansion to about 20 with 50% more EPS will make it a 6 bagger in a couple of years)


Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2009 at 4:16pm
Any views on management of Voltamp?


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"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet


Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2009 at 4:18pm
There seems to be prevailing fears that transformer companies may have difficulties in sales. However, the govt projects for power seem to be going forward...
 
Any views on the demand side?


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"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet


Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2009 at 4:19pm
How does Voltamp manage such growth without debt nor dilution? Why do they have the best margins?


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"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet


Posted By: Shikari_Shambu
Date Posted: 16/Apr/2009 at 1:26pm
Deepinsight,
I am not a very experienced investor and often am not able to go beyond the obvious. I will try and answer what I understood w.r.t your queries (borrowing data from research reports). Request other members to pitch in with their (counter) views.

Demand :
Demand for transformers is driven by reforms in Power sector. The 'Power for all' plan will result in additional power generation capacity. Now every 1MW of power generated will require 7 MVA of transformer capacity.
With a view to capitalize on the increasing demand for the transformers,
VTL had increased its capacity from 7200 MVA to 9000 MVA in December
07 and has announced further green field capacity expansion by 4000
MVA at the estimated cost of not more than Rs 35 crs. at a new location at village Vadadla, Tehsil Savli, District Vadodara, Gujarat. and the production is expected to start in the beginning of FY10.VTL is planning to shift its dry type and distribution transformers at this new location where as the power transformers unit will remain at the existing facility at Makarpura,Vadodra.

I do not see demand being an issue for the foreseeable future.

Growth and margins
- VTL has market share of 40% in Dry Type Transformers and they enjoy higher margins compared to power transformers ( Dry Type transformers are used in hotels, hospitals and commercial buildings)
- It derives almost 95% of revenue from private and industrial clients and only 5% from SEBs that have low credibility.
- If you see its balance sheet, it has enough cash to fund its expansion plans without going into significant equity dilution/debt

Management
Here I have little visibility and I am willing to give benefit of doubt to them. They have been paying dividend and not done anything to doubt them



Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 16/Apr/2009 at 1:31pm
hey but why should one choose voltamp over ABB,AREVA Or crompton.........isn't the bigger is beautiful? stay with the leader?

forget about zero debt for a moment.....

plus u get extras business with the other company, so u get the cushion also.


Posted By: Shikari_Shambu
Date Posted: 16/Apr/2009 at 1:52pm
ABB is at 20 PE, Areva at 22, Crompton at 16.

Anyway, they are not exactly peers for VTS. Power equipment is a huge universe and includes boilers, turbines,meters, transformers, towers, cables and a host of others. If we generalize it, they we would have BHEL, Siemens,etc. It is not fair to compare VTS with them.

Better comparison is with EMCO, Indotech and Transformers and Rectifiers.Among them VTS has the best ROE and one of the better margins and not expensive too.

Ofcourse, VTS is a small cap and surely should not be a major part of portfolio.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 16/Apr/2009 at 4:22pm
BSE company announcement

Areva T&D

Areva T&D India Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated April 16, 2009 titled "AREVA T&D India bags First of its kind 500 MVA Power Transformer Order from PowerGrid

First of its kind of Transformer to be built in india itself.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Well that's why it commands higher valuations.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 16/Apr/2009 at 4:30pm
Power Utilities Are Not Impacted By The Slowdown

http://business.outlookindia.com/inner.aspx?articleid=2685&subcatgid=9&editionid=73&catgid=11 - http://business.outlookindia.com/inner.aspx?articleid=2685&subcatgid=9&editionid=73&catgid=11


Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 16/Apr/2009 at 9:30pm
One other player which comes in this sector is ICSA, with the boom in power sector, these proxy players are worth investing.


Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2009 at 6:20pm
yea, ICSA is good, but it does not boast of a very strong order book. Also, any ideas as to how ICSA compares viz-a-viz klg systel which is also trying to get a grip on ICSA kind of business, plus is also in some other businesses. Whom would you rate higher??


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2009 at 6:27pm
Do ICSA or KLG Systel make transformers?

I think there's a separate thread on ICSA, but I'm not sure about KLG Systel.


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Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2009 at 12:11pm
KLG is also not into transformers.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 9:40am
Indo Tech Transformers — Open Offer: Accept






Considering the premium offered and the uncertainties lingering on the business strategy to be adopted, investors should tender to the offer.




Utilisation levels could improve once the company starts pre-qualifying for higher range transformers.


Vidya Bala


Investors can consider tendering their shares of Indo Tech Transformers to the open offer made by Mexico-based Prolec-GE, considering the premium offered over current market price and the uncertainties lingering on the business strategy to be adopted, after the new management takes over.

The open offer, priced at Rs 406, is a good 27 per cent premium to the current market price (Rs 320). Prolec-GE is also buying the entire promoter stake of 54.3 per cent at the same price through an off-market transaction.

Over a three-year period, however, growth in the transformer business in general and the business opportunities arising from the takeover by an international company could provide upside to the stock. Investors can tender to the open offer and cut their exposures now, as not all the shares that are tendered may be accepted. Those with a two-three year perspective can retain the remaining shares.

At the current market price, the stock trades at seven times its trailing 12 month earnings. Investors need to take note that price of the shares may witness a decline after the offer, if they were to adjust to fair value. At the industry average P/E of 5 times, the fair value of the stock is about Rs 220.
Details of offer and acquirer



The offer made by Prolec-GE is open during April 4-23. Investors need to note that the open offer is for 20 per cent (21.24 lakh shares) of the share capital. This translates into an acceptance ratio of 43.8 per cent. In other words, assuming all shareholders tender their shares, only four out of nine shares tendered would be accepted. After the offer, the acquirer Prolec-GE would hold a 74.3 per cent stake in Indo Tech Transformers. The existing promoters would cease to hold any shares.

Prolec-GE, a Mexican transformer manufacturer, with a turnover of over Rs 3,000 crore (CY 2007), is a joint venture between Xignux of Mexico and General Electric Company. This company, with its manufacturing facility in Mexico, caters to markets in North and South America as well as some of the African and West Asian countries. The company produces higher range of transformers compared with Indo Tech’s transformers.

The offer document states that this acquisition is being made to gain foothold in the emerging markets. This strategy appears appropriate in the Indian context in the light of the aggressive power capacity additions planned in the country. The strategy means that Indo Tech’s products may also be exported to more West Asian and African markets, given the logistics convenience.

To this extent, exports, which were around 10-12 per cent of Indo Tech’s revenue for FY-08, may see some ramp-up by FY11. However, it is also possible that Prolec-GE would treat the Indian unit as a lost-cost manufacturing base to provide inputs for or supplement its own product range.

If this occurs, the high profit margins of Indo Tech (superior to Prolec-GE) may see some contraction. However, given the wide divergence in the product range offered by the two companies, we believe that revenue from outsourcing to parent may be a smaller proportion of total revenues over the medium-term.

Investors who hold the remaining shares of the company would, therefore, have to look for cues on the above to discern Indo Tech’s profitability in the future.
Slowdown but managing well


Indo Tech has not been completely immune to the current economic slowdown. While it managed robust growth up to the quarter ended September 2008, the December quarter results were more tepid ; revenues grew less than 6 per cent over corresponding quarter last year, while net profits improved by just 1 per cent.

The company’s operating profit margins dropped by 100 basis points to 32.9 per cent on the back of lower realisations which, in turn, have been marginally depressed as a result of passing on commodity price declines to customers with escalation clauses. Order inflows too appear to have slowed.

The company’s order book at about Rs 120 crore translates into about two quarter revenues instead of a revenue cover of three-four quarters seen earlier.

Indo Tech’s overall profitability could improve if its newly expanded Kancheepuram facility improves its utilisation. Currently only 25-30 per cent of this plant’s capacity is being utilised by the company.

This facility, with capacity to produce up to 400 MVA capacity transformers (from 100 MVA earlier), may gradually improve utilisation levels once the company starts pre-qualifying for higher range transformers. In this context, the international acquirer may bring in orders for the higher range of transformers.



The parent of this company is GE will they delist the stock & With parent like GE dosen't it make a great buy



Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 10:02am
With an average PE of 5 times and even zero growth for the current year this sector could provide a few multibaggers in the next 3-4 years. We need to identify companies with protected downside (good payout/zero debt/clean and lean Balance Sheet).
 
The trick is to be investing into companies that are aggressively increasing capacity so when  the fortunes turn this increased capacity would generate cash flows.
 
Reliance MFs 10%+ acquisition of one of the transformer companies also indicates their long term view on the sector.
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: BGKGURU
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 10:08am
basantji
 
what abt competition. I think capacity is increasing day by day and new players coming. Anyway why indotech promoters are selling?? they must know much more than us.


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Respect the Markets and do MAKE mistakes, but see to it that you can afford to stay in the markets even after the mistake-RJ


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 10:19am
yes also what about chinese competition.............

Voltamp gets 90% of its sales throught pvt sector..........

I can't find anything about voltamp on the net.......not even one interview


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 10:24am
Maybe a less aggressive (lower risk, lower reward) investor should get into companies that don't exclusively make transformers but offer broader solutions in the power sector.

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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 10:26am
Brics Securities

this is from feb-09

For 9MFY09, Voltamp Transformers (VTL) PAT improved 45% to Rs846 million, while revenues climbed 13.4% to Rs4.76 billion.
While we estimate earnings to improve 41% for FY09E, we expect a decline of 11% for FY10E mainly on 3% volume decline and 360bps drop in operating margins.
This drop in margins is mainly on account of lower order intake and an almost depleted stock of legacy orders, taking out operational leverage.
VTL is a debt-free company and is expected to record free cash flow of 64% CAGR over FY09-11E in spite of only 5% revenue CAGR on the back of declining volumes.
At current EV/EBITDA of just 2x FY10E, we rate the stock BUY with a price target of Rs431, assigning an exit P/E of 4x FY10E (discount of 60% to its average two- year forward multiple of 10.8x), offering an upside of 28.4%.


Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 10:52am
On transformer companies...let me share my own unsolicited opinion.
 
Basically my dad has this SME type of small transformer outfit in eastern India. Business has been pouring in even in the last few months.....from telecom tower companies, railways, government elec boards. They are struggling to meet demand. Their contractors have very very long waiting queues....any reasonable orders need to be in the queue for 4-6 months. And they feel a lot better about profitability with input price collapses all around and less demand for manpower.
 
 


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 10:59am
hey and with monsoon about to come.........wouldn't many transformer blew out.........isn't it repeat biz..........


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:19am
Originally posted by BGKGURU

basantji
 
what abt competition. I think capacity is increasing day by day and new players coming. Anyway why indotech promoters are selling?? they must know much more than us.
 
Maybe they know more but for every seller isn't there a buyer? At the end of the day it is a commoditized business but money can be made buying commodities provided people have a) An exit strategy these are not buy and hold for ever stocks and b) Buying at very cheap valuations c) Getting protection through payout d) Buy only after stocks have moved sideways for 4-6 months!
 
Please do not pounce on me since this is anew startegy I am following to buy commodity cyclicals will elaborate in detail on the steps I take to buy such companies.
 
Also as long as earnings do not collapse (plus minus 10%) one should make money buying a stock that trades at less then 4 times ex cash and offering payout protection with high RoCE and zero debt.
 
Also these companies tarde at market caps of Rs 400 crores and that is not expensive. Plus many of these stocks are available at below Book Value and 20% of market cap in cash.
 
Now with that kind of a fundamental scenario one cannot start looking at moats and competitions.
 
Finally stock market is all about the odds and there is nothing sure shot or fool proof.
 
 
Originally posted by chimak10

Brics Securities

this is from feb-09

For 9MFY09, Voltamp Transformers (VTL) PAT improved 45% to Rs846 million, while revenues climbed 13.4% to Rs4.76 billion.
While we estimate earnings to improve 41% for FY09E, we expect a decline of 11% for FY10E mainly on 3% volume decline and 360bps drop in operating margins.
This drop in margins is mainly on account of lower order intake and an almost depleted stock of legacy orders, taking out operational leverage.
VTL is a debt-free company and is expected to record free cash flow of 64% CAGR over FY09-11E in spite of only 5% revenue CAGR on the back of declining volumes.
At current EV/EBITDA of just 2x FY10E, we rate the stock BUY with a price target of Rs431, assigning an exit P/E of 4x FY10E (discount of 60% to its average two- year forward multiple of 10.8x), offering an upside of 28.4%.
 
At that rate the company will earn back its market cap in 30 months and the existing assets will add as further margin.
 
We have necessarily put a bottom to the economic data
 
 
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/dont-enter-mkts-now-wait-for-fall-first-global/393058/1 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/dont-enter-mkts-now-wait-for-fall-first-global/393058/1
 
 
Plus this is what the Big Lady Bear of the Indian markets suggests! Obviously when economic revival happens all cyclicals will enjoy a decent run up.
 
My reference to the Big Lady Bear is just an attempt to show how the bears are viewing the economic data and not with any intention to follow any Brokerage or Fund house.
 
 
 
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:22am
On Chinese competition....there is 2 types of contrary data that one comes across
 
1. One one hand China's new power capacity per annum (when i last checked atleast) is a very high percentage of India's total power capacity. So their equipment companies have to be top class.
 
2. But small Indian companies which install Chinese equipment always complain about extremely poor quality. e.g. There is this Birla company in the outskirts of Kolkata which installed Chinese transformers only to find faults within a few months of production being kicked off.
 
Not sure, how these two points can be reconciled. Also, it's all anecdotal data after all. Perhaps, the Indian companies being talked about have gone to the wrong players.
 
In terms of large PSU elec production players, BHEL insists they should get preference over Chinese players since they do their manufacturing in India. That has atleast been the case so far. BHEL also uses political influence (witness the recent Jindal deal) and strong arm tactics to effect final decisions even in Pvt sector. Overall, MNCs with production in China fear BHEL's influcence, tactics and people.  Hearing about how BHEL is kicking foreign players really warms my heart though too much protectionism might not be a good things.....after all we still have power cuts in India.


Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:27am
i agree with u basantji that the exit strategy should be in the back of mind because finally if 4 baggers fall 50% from top u r nowwhere.


Posted By: BGKGURU
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:30am
Basantji
 
if you have any view on emkay report, plz share with us.


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Respect the Markets and do MAKE mistakes, but see to it that you can afford to stay in the markets even after the mistake-RJ


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:38am
http://www.livemint.com/2009/03/09090648/BRICS-Securities-puts-SELL-on.html - http://www.livemint.com/2009/03/09090648/BRICS-Securities-puts-SELL-on.html

Brics Securities On ABB

ABB is set for a flattish growth trajectory over the next couple of years led by slowdown in industrial clients and capex plan deferrals.

We expect order inflow and revenue to grow at modest 6% and 9.6%, respectively, in CY09. We also expect PAT to remain flat at Rs5.4 billion for CY09.
Moreover, incumbents like Areva T&D and Crompton (post acquisition of Pauwels, Ganz and Microsol) now have the same product and project expertise thereby diluting ABB’s edge on both these turfs.
Valuation premium dilution vs peers should thus follow. We rate the stock a SELL with a target price of Rs303 (14% downside).



Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:40am
deleted.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:41am
http://www.livemint.com/articles/2009/02/19101726/BRICS-Securities-recommends-Vo.html - http://www.livemint.com/articles/2009/02/19101726/BRICS-Securities-recommends-Vo.html

click on the link & FY09-FY11E to get brics estimate for voltamp

I missed that one


Posted By: HallaBol
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:52am
If you have proper enter-exit strategy, one can make money even in Unitech or Lloyd electric and even in RIIL.

From the 8000 levels, buying any stock (even junk) would have given decent return.



-------------
The future is never clear, you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cherry consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values. - Warren Buffet


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 18/Apr/2009 at 11:59am
i missed that one means i missed to post the brics fin data about ...........Voltamp..............


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 12:00pm
Originally posted by BGKGURU

Basantji
 
if you have any view on emkay report, plz share with us.
 
Ever since they brought out their sell report on the entire sector stocks have almost doubled!
 
Sometimes we need to correlate fundamentals with the price that we are paying for that stock so a 10% grower like ABB at 20 PE is expensive compared to a 0% grower at 4PE because everyone knows that 4 PE is  an unsustainable for a company that has a high RoCE the fact that stocks are trading at 3-5 PE means that markets are disoc**ting the worst and assuming that worst to extend for the nest 3-4 years the question is what happens if there is an industrial recovery?
 
But yes, we need to buy these stock very very cheap because a 6 PE stock can suddenly trade at a 3 PE.
 
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 12:25pm
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2009/04/19/stories/2009041950401100.htm - http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2009/04/19/stories/2009041950401100.htm

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Jai Guru!!!


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 12:59pm
this is old article dec -06

http://www.blonnet.com/iw/2006/12/24/stories/2006122400980700.htm - http://www.blonnet.com/iw/2006/12/24/stories/2006122400980700.htm

Why bigger is better


An analysis of trends in the industry suggests that big companies such as ABB, Siemens and BHEL enjoy certain advantages over the others. With the reforms aimed mainly at ramping up power generation, improving shipment and reducing losses and theft, there will have to be a shift towards higher voltage T&D applications and super-critical boilers.

Three factors that support our conviction about big companies are their technological edge, business diversification and discretion in capacity addition. These factors not only augur well for such companies seeking to leverage on the power story but also suggest that they could join the league of global players.

For instance, after losing out to Doosan (Korea) and Power Machines (Russia) in the bid for NTPC's super-critical power projects, BHEL put in place tie-ups with global players Alstom and Siemens. ABB is increasingly into High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) systems in the T&D space, one of the high-end products with few competitors; the company is also focussed on exiting low-value segments.

Apart from being in the high-end power equipment space, which is likely to see sustained demand, these companies have well-diversified business models to hedge against any slowdown in one segment. ABB and Siemens, for instance, derive about 60 per cent of their income from the power equipment segment and the rest from the automation and drives businesses. Thermax is involved in wastewater treatment solutions while Crompton Greaves is into electric motors, home electricals and agricultural pumps. Such diversification across various infrastructure areas forms a strong de-risking strategy.

In terms of expansion of production capacities, BHEL, although the largest in terms of outlays on expansion, is in line with others in terms of percentage of additional revenues. ABB and Siemens are expanding only in specific products, while Thermax is adding just one greenfield facility. Evidently the large companies want to avoid a repeat of the overcapacity situation of 1999.

While the large players are showing prudence in capacity expansion, smaller players, such as Emco, Voltamp Transformers and Bharat Bijlee, are on an expansion spree. Although the medium-term outlook for these companies is backed by good demand, investors need to keep in mind the following risk. As mentioned earlier, the reforms targets require higher voltage equipment. At the Central level, for instance, all the requirements are for the above 400 kV category, and at the State transmission level it has been enhanced to 132 kV.

This would necessitate constant upgradation to higher voltage segments by smaller players. Further, this move to high capacity lines may mean that the requirement for transmission towers and conductors will eventually decline, as the traffic is likely to be handled by fewer high-end equipment. So the way out for small companies will be to constantly upgrade and diversify product lines.

Emco and Areva T&D have proved their capability to quickly move up the value chain. A few, such as Voltamp Transformers, derive 95 per cent of their revenues from the industrial sector and hence are not particularly dependent on the reform process. For investors, a wait-and-watch approach may be the strategy in evaluating the mid-size players.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2009 at 3:53pm
Can someone send me this Voltamp BUY report on my email?
 
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/stocks-views/voltamp-trans-has-targetrs-600-625-s-samant/394034 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/stocks-views/voltamp-trans-has-targetrs-600-625-s-samant/394034
 
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Merrill Lynch
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2009 at 5:24am
Now, even chartists have started recommending Voltamp...

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/04/21/stories/2009042150901000.htm -

We recommend a buy in Voltamp Transformers from a short-term trading perspective. It is apparent from the charts of Voltamp Transformers that after recording a 52-week low of Rs 265 on March 9, it reversed direction triggered by positive divergence in the weekly relative strength index (RSI). The stock has been on a medium-term uptrend since its March low.

The stock surpassed 21- and 50-day moving averages in mid March, and during early April it broke through a key resista nce at Rs 400 level. We observe good volume during the advance days of the uptrend. On April 20, the stock jumped almost 9 per cent, reinforcing the bullish momentum. The daily RSI is featuring in the bullish zone and the weekly RSI is rising in the neutral region. The daily moving average convergence and divergence indicator is steadily rising in the positive territory. Our short-term forecast on the stock is bullish. We anticipate it to rally until it hits our price target of Rs 505 in the upcoming trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 433.



Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2009 at 8:28pm
http://www.joindre.cmlinks.com/ResearchReport.aspx?Stype=1&Rtype=3&Ntype=5&id=1# - Voltamp Research Report ByJoindre


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2009 at 8:31pm
Lagtai hai, the herd is solidly behind this one!

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Posted By: Shikari_Shambu
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2009 at 9:48pm
Not sure about herd but in my opinion Voltamp can be a multibagger ( atleast 6 bagger in 2-3 yrs) . Oversupply in transformer capacity should not affect it since it operates in a niche capacity (Industrial segment) . With zero debt and < 5 PE, it is difficult to go wrong on this one.

p.s. I am a long term shareholder in Voltamp in my wife's portfolio. Recently added a significant number of shares. Will add more in case of correction.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 03/May/2009 at 11:56am
AREVA T&D

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/areva-td-power-packed-agenda/356936/ - http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/areva-td-power-packed-agenda/356936/


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 04/May/2009 at 2:52pm
ABB’s focus on HVDC is at odds with the current concept of using alternating current to move power. ABB’s technology goes alongside Thomas Edison’s idea that power should be distributed as Direct Current. DC is ideal for moving power long distances and for moving power underground and underwater.


Engineers, please help! I thought AC was better!


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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/May/2009 at 2:57pm
WHich companies benefit and which do not through this AC/DC concept? Confused


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Shikari_Shambu
Date Posted: 04/May/2009 at 3:08pm
http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800564796_765245_NT_b7c66521.HTM - http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800564796_765245_NT_b7c66521.HTM
 
Above link should either help or confuse anyone Big%20smile
 
 


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 04/May/2009 at 3:13pm
Originally posted by Shikari_Shambu

http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800564796_765245_NT_b7c66521.HTM - http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800564796_765245_NT_b7c66521.HTM
 
Above link should either help or confuse anyone Big%20smile
 
 


Thanks for the quick response!


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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 5:35pm

Voltamp still at below 4 PE; RoE above 45% but yield has dropped to 2.5%.

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/announcement/Voltamp_Transformers_Ltd_130409_Rst.pdf - http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/announcement/Voltamp_Transformers_Ltd_130409_Rst.pdf
 
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 9:24pm
QoQ margins seems to have dropped.

Inventory build up ?



Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/May/2009 at 11:42am
ALl transformer companies are going bezerk! Though I do not like talking about price movements on the forum because it adds zero value to anyone what I am really interested in is for the so called smart analysts at Emkay to call their report back.
 
They had advocated a sell on transformer companies and prices are up 2.5 to 3 times in  less then 3 months.
 
Surely these were the gems in the dust!!!
 
 
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 19/May/2009 at 11:59am
ohhhhhhhhh basantjeeeeeeeee...........rubbing in......

poor EMAKY anaylst has commited suicide.


Posted By: arunshah2k
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 1:30pm
Also, it is interesting to see the rerating in entire market because of just one event - UPA win.

And when rerating happens, markets does not give any opportunity to anyone to enter. When everyone wants to enter, prices sky rocket.

And when everyone wants to sell, prices nose dive to ground.

Markets are ruthless to people who follow the trend.


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 2:12pm
Originally posted by arunshah2k

Also, it is interesting to see the rerating in entire market because of just one event - UPA win.

And when rerating happens, markets does not give any opportunity to anyone to enter. When everyone wants to enter, prices sky rocket.

And when everyone wants to sell, prices nose dive to ground.

Markets are ruthless to people who follow the trend.

 Confused Confused Confused


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Posted By: leo2007
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 3:43pm
Originally posted by arunshah2k

Also, it is interesting to see the rerating in entire market because of just one event - UPA win.

 
True. All opinion has been changed all of a sudden !. Indian Economy has improved. NPA is not  an issue. FII's have started pumping in money .Indian market gets re-rated to Outperformer.ConfusedConfused
 
 


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 3:52pm
The differentiating factor between winners and losers is foresight and hindsight!
 
 
 
Originally posted by leo2007

Originally posted by arunshah2k

Also, it is interesting to see the rerating in entire market because of just one event - UPA win.

 
True. All opinion has been changed all of a sudden !. Indian Economy has improved. NPA is not  an issue. FII's have started pumping in money .Indian market gets re-rated to Outperformer.ConfusedConfused
 
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 6:27pm

Hopefully Vishal Retail will scrape through this, and not go the Subhiksha way. I hope it goes back to its all time highs before it goes bankrupt.



Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 7:06pm
Emkay in its 19th May report on the FY09 results of voltamp is disappointed with the "quality" of earnings and is worried about overcapacity in the transformer industry, and maintains its 'sell' call.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 7:26pm
Ohh............tough cookie this emkay.........

BTW why do they provide MYIRIS free research reports.

I want to know do these guys talk to the management or just read the results and then chage the excel sheet and type the report? No sarcasm.......i want to know this.
i mean how could the predict the future from the past without talking to management.

They have also given sell on indo tech and bharat bijlee


Posted By: kumardiwesh
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 7:27pm
Originally posted by basant

Its fashionable to pick holes isn't it? How many predicated the demise of Pantaloon Retail?
 

Its better to get direct rather then go indirect with statements like "many"! 

 


It's very easy to calculate returns from the bottom.
Everything looks good.
But the problem is you know the bottom only after it has been formed.
However, all said and done, many mid-caps are severely undervalued, at least on a relative basis.


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"History does not tell you the probability of future financial things happening" - Warren Buffett


Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 11:17pm
Have Emkay given good reasoning on why they are pessimistic on the sector?

Would rather we talk on the fundamentals, with better or opposite arguments then just call them wrong.

Just because the valuations (of the sector) have improved - does not make the opposite view correct.

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"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 11:29pm
Emaky and a lot of researcher are saying there is a vast oversupply in this sector with all the additional capacity built by the companies.

plus chinese import threat.

now i personally can't quantitfy the demand supply mismatch for the sector.

But as subu said his dad's SME transformer company had good demand in the transformers. So i don't know.

i mean if india has to grow the power sector has to improve drastically.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 11:31pm
you will find emkay reports on "myiris"


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 12:14pm
State-run power firms may place orders worth Rs210bn: report

India Infoline News Service / Mumbai May 13, 2009 10:17

The Central Electricity Authority approved the proposed purchases, which need to be endorsed by the federal government



Public sector power generation companies including NTPC and Damodar Valley Corp. may place equipment orders worth Rs210bn, according to a business daily. The Central Electricity Authority approved the proposed purchases, which need to be endorsed by the Government, according to the financial newspaper. The equipment will be used to build 11 generation plants each with a capacity of 660 megawatts (MW), the paper added.



did emkay figure this kindda news when writing the reports.

my guess is no


Posted By: arunshah2k
Date Posted: 21/May/2009 at 12:50pm
Yes, the rerating that has happened in the entire market is based on value.

Further increase in prices will now happen based on actual growth.

This is how I feel stocks react in a Bull market/bear market. At the start almost all stocks go up/down simultaneously. Once things stabilize, earnings/balance sheet becomes the driver.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 21/May/2009 at 11:34am
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1257914 - http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1257914

Capital goods major Crompton Greaves has marked a capital expenditure of Rs 200 crore for this fiscal after seeing signs of revival, especially in the domestic market.


SM Trehan, managing director, said, "Last year, we had a capex of Rs 130 crore but for the current financial year, we have kept that number at Rs 200 crore." Of this, Rs 110 crore will be spent on the domestic market and the remaining on international operations.

The company has 3 verticals -- power systems, industrial and consumer products. Trehan said growth is expected to be flat in industrial and consumer products. But power systems will continue to grow across all the markets it is present in.

"Our power segment will see good demand and should continue to grow. We are expecting an 18-20% growth this fiscal," he said. But there will be slowdown in the industrial segment, which is likely to post growth of 8-9%.
Growth in the consumer products division is seen at 12-15%.

In the fiscal ended March 2009, Crompton Greaves' power segment grew at 23%, industrial systems at 15% and consumer products at 18%. Last year, the company had scaled down capex from Rs 200 crore to Rs 130 crore due to a slowdown in order inflow, especially from overseas clients.

Trehan said a major slowdown is being seen in the renewable energy sector in the US market. "Enquiries are coming but the schedules are not firming up," he said. The same is the case with distribution transformers in the European market. However, power transformers will continue to grow as they did last year in tandem with the power systems segment, he said.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 22/May/2009 at 12:18pm
From Kotak Report


Competition from foreign players on the rise
There has been increase in competition from the Chinese and Korean T&D equipment
makers. Hyosung of korea has recently won a 765 KV order for supply of
transformer for a PGCIL tender. We understand that there is a price differential of
10-15% between Indian and Chinese/Korean equipment makers.



Given all this news..........which i can't really comment much since i have no know how about transformers..............i think in small and midcap segment INDO TECH with GE ownership would be good bet.

What u guy say...............


Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 22/May/2009 at 12:44pm
What is the life cycle of transformers? I know they are repairable but at some stage they are required to be replace. Also can they recyclable?  

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Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity ....


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 22/May/2009 at 5:53pm
Originally posted by chimak10

....
Given all this news..........which i can't really comment much since i have no know how about transformers..............i think in small and midcap segment INDO TECH with GE ownership would be good bet.

What u guy say...............


Chimak10, Emkay really are against this sector! You may have got their report on Indotech from Informed Investors.

This  supports  our  observation  highlighted  in  recent  report  ‘Sliding  Down’– realizations and profitability of transformer business  is likely to face tremendous pressure in FY10E. We maintain our negative view on the sector especially in light of  overcapacity with  huge demand-supply mismatch  -  translating  into  earnings decline and negative surprises. We reduce our FY10E earnings estimates by 19% to Rs34.0/Share and introduce FY11E earnings of Rs46.5/Share. At CMP of Rs264, the  stock  is  trading  at  7.8x  FY10E  earnings  and  1.5x  FY10E Book  Value.  We maintain  our  ‘SELL’  rating  and  price  target  of Rs204 based  on  1  yr  rolling  fwd PER.



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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 22/May/2009 at 6:02pm
Emkay does not like stocks owned by Basant - Koi Puraani Dushmani Hogi. They just put out a 'Reduce' call on Thermax Geek


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 22/May/2009 at 7:36pm
hitesh all this emkay reports are daily put on www.myiris.com

i would bet my ass that emkay guy wouldn't know difference between the different transformers
they gave sell report before march and what has happend.......... do they know what kind of PE market wants to give to this companies.

hmm.........lets see GE is like bada baap in capital goods. So with GE in tow i am assuming that indotech will get the boost in tech know how. what other thing one can ask for. Only thing is do indotech have necessary connection in the right places and do they know how to grease the palms of the right pepole.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 22/May/2009 at 8:07pm
Originally posted by smartcat

Emkay does not like stocks owned by Basant - Koi Puraani Dushmani Hogi. They just put out a 'Reduce' call on Thermax Geek


smartcatjee your edelweiss reco is for accumulate for THERMAX

to them order inflow will pick up in second half is good thing but not good enough for EMKAY.


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 23/May/2009 at 8:32am
Vidya doesn't read Emkay reports.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2009/05/24/stories/2009052450861100.htm


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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 5:10pm
i was reading the alstom annual report where they mention

Power plants using supercritical technology
have a higher thermal efficiency as compared
to the sub critical units of 500MW or below.
At present all the operating power plants
are sub critical units. There is a clear shift
in the market towards larger unit size and
supercritical technology.


does this apply to distribution transformer too???????

Anyone has any idea about it.


Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 6:52pm
Nope.

It refers to boiler pressure and corresponding turbine technology.


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 7:00pm
http://www.greenfacts.org/glossary/pqrs/supercritical-ultra-supercritical-technology.htm - Source
Definition:

Conventional coal-fired power plants, which make water boil to generate steam that activates a turbine, have efficiency of about 32%.

Supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (USC) power plants operate at temperatures and pressures above the critical point of water, i.e. above the temperature and pressure at which the liquid and gas phases of water coexist in equilibrium, at which point there is no difference between water gas and liquid water. This results in higher efficiencies – above 45%.

Supercritical (SC) and ultra -supercritical (USC) power plants require less coal per megawatt-hour, leading to lower emissions (including carbon dioxide and mercury), higher efficiency and lower fuel costs per megawatt.

*****************

You can also see http://knol.google.com/k/partha-das-sharma/supercritical-coal-fired-power-plant/oml631csgjs7/20# - this .







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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 7:40pm
Thanks for the reply........


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 2:19pm
From the moneycontrol site it appears that Rel mf has added 7 lac shares of voltanp in its power fund which is about 7pc of equity.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 7:49pm
So basantji u are in transformer sector from Hdfc bank (regulated business)


Posted By: leo2007
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 10:29am
What is meant by regulated business ?


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 10:39am
Originally posted by leo2007

What is meant by regulated business ?


My guess is some businesses like power utilities cannot charge what they feel like. There is a limit imposed on them.


-------------


Posted By: leo2007
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 10:47am
Originally posted by Hitesh Shah

Originally posted by leo2007

What is meant by regulated business ?


My guess is some businesses like power utilities cannot charge what they feel like. There is a limit imposed on them.
 
I don't think transformer manufacturers come under this catagory .


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2009 at 10:57am
Originally posted by leo2007

Originally posted by Hitesh Shah

Originally posted by leo2007

What is meant by regulated business ?


My guess is some businesses like power utilities cannot charge what they feel like. There is a limit imposed on them.
 
I don't think transformer manufacturers come under this catagory .


Neither do, I but I was trying to answer your question Smile.


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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 2:09am
From GS report


Competition in the Indian power equipment segment is increasing and will put pressure on pricing, in our view. China garnered around 25% of the total and around 66% of private orders in the Eleventh Plan. Many other international electrical equipment companies have
announced plans to build operations in India—implying that pricing may continue to be under pressure (see Exhibits 13-15

           MW    %
Central 1,200   6%
State    2,700   12%
Private 11,563   66%
Total   13,235   25%

This thing must be only on the super critical and generation side of the transformer...........i have no clue though. or this breakup is for the total transformer industry???
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
While transformer companies are taken into consideration.........but wouldn't transmisson tower business also benfit. And that kind of industry shouldn't face any kind of chinese compeition

There was this very good interview in LIVE MINT OF some cfo or Reliance power............where he was saying that lot of pepole doubted about the chinese equipment used in its power plant.......and how the plant is working at full load and it's kind of considered top plant in its league.

The live mint reporter asked that guy that RPOWER don't have any experince and track record of doing UMPP.

The guy answerd all you u need to make an UMPP is pepole with the know how and money........both of which RPOWER has.......and he said did bharti had any track record of creating a mobile network when it started out!!!


Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 9:08am
Chimakji can u give name of some Chinese transformer co.s


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 10:19am
oh please prashant sir do not call me chimakjee....

i am only good at cut and paste..


anyway this is what on the net.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

From zero presence in the Indian power equipment market a couple of years ago, Chinese companies are likely to supply as much as 30 per cent of the equipment required to meet the Eleventh Plan capacity addition target of 78,000 Mw.

Chinese companies are also bagging large orders from private power companies in India, despite the perception of "suspect quality".

Limited manufacturing capacity of the country's primary power equipment supplier, government-owned Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd [Get Quote] (Bhel), and price competitiveness are tilting the balance in favour of the Chinese.

"The Chinese companies are attractive because they have the capacities and are cost competitive," said KPMG Associate Director Santosh Kamath. Chinese equipment are 10 to 12 per cent cheaper than Bhel products.

In the power business, this is critical because low equipment costs enable power companies to put in lower bids for projects and raise their chances of winning them. Equipment costs make up almost 80 per cent of the cost of setting up a power plant.

China is able to offer lower costs because it leverages vast economies of scale. Dongfang Electric Corporation alone has a manufacturing capacity of 20,000 Mw, which is double that of Bhel's 10,000 Mw capacity.

"The capacity of Chinese companies ensures quicker delivery. They also have experience in supplying to power plants in China, which are performing well," said an official with a private power company in India.

One power plant in India operating on equipment supplied by Chinese company Shanghai Electric is the 600-Mw Yamunanagar power plant near Delhi, 300 Mw of which was commissioned last year. "The plant is functioning without hitches," said an official.

Dongfang Electric Corporation is supplying equipment to West Bengal Power Development Corporation's 600-Mw plant in Sagardighi and 300-Mw plant in Durgapur. It is also supplying equipment to Lanco Infratech's [Get Quote] 1,200-Mw Amarkantak thermal project in Madhya Pradesh, besides two other projects at Mangalore in Karnataka and Anpara in Uttar Pradesh.

Shandong Electric Power Construction Corporation has bagged the engineering, procurement and construction contract for Vedanta's 2,400-Mw plant at Jharsuguda in Orissa.

Orders have also been placed with other companies from Korea and Japan. Korean company Doosan has bagged the order to supply super-critical equipment, which is more efficient in burning of coal, to power utility NTPC's 2,000-Mw power plant at Sipat in Chhattisgarh.

Critics, however, say that Chinese power equipment have not yet been thoroughly proven. "It remains to be seen how these equipment function in Indian conditions. Cheaper equipment may turn out to be expensive later. That is a definite risk," another analyst added.

Chinese companies, however, reject the inferior quality argument saying their equipment have been successfully working all around the world. "It has been proven that our equipment are inferior to none," said a top official with a Chinese company based in India.




can't argue more about chinese power equipment........cause the whole chinese power would be run on the same machines.


some links

http://www.mjunction.in/market_news/coal_1/concern_over_chinese_power_equ.php - http://www.mjunction.in/market_news/coal_1/concern_over_chinese_power_equ.php


India to buy $7B of power plant equipment from China

http://www.reliableplant.com/article.aspx?articleid=16873&pagetitle=India+to+buy+%247B+of+power+plant+equipment+from+China - http://www.reliableplant.com/article.aspx?articleid=16873&pagetitle=India+to+buy+%247B+of+power+plant+equipment+from+China

Till now whatever i have read on the net mostly talks about chinese companies are in generation side only. not on distribution side.


Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2009 at 11:21am
Prashant sir u r inbox is full



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