Industries to be avoided....
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Words of Wisdom
Forum Discription: Have you found a golden rule to profitable investing? Share experiences, articulate your thoughts quote a book or a guru.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=209
Printed Date: 01/Jul/2024 at 1:01pm
Topic: Industries to be avoided....
Posted By: manishdave
Subject: Industries to be avoided....
Date Posted: 20/Aug/2006 at 11:40pm
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We all talked about different points but center point was how to make money. This is about how not to loose.
I would put certain industries where i dont know anybody who made lot of money.
1. Textile:
In textile even W Buffet didn't make money and he says his worst investment is Berkshire. Before anybody jumps in for Himatsinghka let me tell you that it is more designing company and less textile company.
2. Dyes and pigments
Does anybody remembers any name the went up a lot and stayed there? i can name many bankrupt companies on otherside.
3. Electronics manufacturing:
We won't talk abt Videocon as somebody can say that it is management problem. But what abt. TVS Electronics? Again BEL is more technology comapny. What I am talking here is simple manufacturing company.
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Replies:
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Aug/2006 at 11:57pm
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I am not sure if any one has made money in paper stocks here in india. We do keep having these occassional bursts in West Coast and Ballarpur but over a period of 10 years I am willing to bet if any one has made a more then 10% annualised return.
Has any one made money in the aviation sector across the world on a consistent basis.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reema
Date Posted: 21/Aug/2006 at 9:02am
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Single one man shows have always been disastors. Pritish Nandy,K Sera Sera - Ram Gopal Varma
Mukta Arts - Subhas Gahi
Before you start debating about Balaji let me inform you that over a period of 5 years Balaji has delivered an annual return of 20% which when compared with the index return of 32% looks modest.
------------- You should try to add wealth not multiply it |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 22/Aug/2006 at 8:41pm
| Basant, I disagree with you on paper....In India, we simply lack good paper companies. Ballarpur was plagued by fights within the company and I am very hopeful of a very decent performance of ballarpur given the results that came out.West Coast was never an attractive play, given that its management is not interested in stock market activities.JK Paper can be a dark horse, if they manage to keep their earnings in tune with their capital growth.ITC is not a proper company to be discussed here. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Aug/2006 at 8:57pm
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I am not an expert on paper so i cannot argue with you on this but broadly the Indian paper manufacturers are all family run businesses. ARe you sure that over a period of 10 years any of the paper manufacturer has delivered more then 15% return per annum?It would come as a surprise to me if they have.We are taking a historical perspective here. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 22/Aug/2006 at 9:04pm
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West coast paper on 30-08-1996 closed at 60.50.after considering dividends annualised returns comes out to be greater than 10 p.a. Ballarpur is down from where it was at that time. JK Paper didnt exist then. |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 22/Aug/2006 at 9:53pm
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India has structural disadvantage in paper industry. We don't have enough forest/forest land. Brazil/Indonesia/Canada have cheap raw material. Brazil is best as it has right climate, enough water(amazing Amazon) and cheap labor.
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Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2006 at 4:00pm
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Summary is to AVOID -
1. Paper
2. Textile
3. Dyes and pigments
4. Electronics manufacturing
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2006 at 4:33pm
I don't know how Basantjee would react to this....but with whatever little I have understood from my own as well as other's (read: Mungerilals) experiences is this:
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2006 at 5:33pm
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SECTORS WHICH ARE POPULAR :
Anything that is popular will be overpriced. I think that popularity means how many of the individual investors have been invested not whether the stock has run up. So if plenty of the next door man is invested in software, telecom, sugar I would call it popular if no one is invested in cement even while cement has run up 400% I would not call it popular.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kg
Date Posted: 16/Oct/2007 at 3:54pm
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hi basantji
which are the sectors in the current market scenario which need to be avoided....
regds
kg ------------- Lets rock |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/Oct/2007 at 4:05pm
Bank FD's, NSC's, Debentures .
Personally I would avoid anything that trades at a PE of 40 times Fy 09 and beyond. PRIL also falls into that category but the demerger and spin off holds me back. I want to be safe rather then sorry.Maybe you could say that it is a case of sour grapes. But that is how I feel. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 16/Oct/2007 at 4:55pm
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Basant jee: Then what do you make of THAT report by Prabhu Liladh, where they said a CAGR of 165% in retail earnings they are strongly expecting? Wouldn't that make 40 times much lesser in less than 1 year from now? Just curious! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2008 at 10:49pm
I do not know much about stocks but my chachu in UK has investments since long in Ciba and BASF and these are big companies in the industrial / textile dyes and pigment category
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2008 at 11:21pm
| Ciba has exited from textile effects business by selling that unit to Huntsman, as far as i know. BASF alongwith Bayer is a huge company. |
Posted By: sjerry4u
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2008 at 6:55pm
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Does anyone know what reliance natural resources do??? i saw their website, not a word written about products,services------------- -Jerry- |
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2008 at 8:38pm
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No idea I have also tried to find out but in vain , I guess even ADA might not know what RNRL does or intend to do. In this rally from sep to mid jan RNRL made a joke of the capital market. ------------- Warm REgards Nitin Jagtap |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2008 at 10:15pm
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I am hearing stupid theories that Reliance Natural Resources Fund will invest in RNRL. Till 31st Jan, no Rel fund is holding even a single stock of RNRL. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: atulbull
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2008 at 10:25pm
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this news item in the hindu will give you an idea about what rnrl plans to do (distribution of gas and electricity generation) RNRL seeks coal blocks Special Correspondent NEW DELHI: Anil Dhirubhai Ambani owned Reliance Natural Resources Limited (RNRL) has asked the Ministry of Coal to allocate captive coal blocks to enable the company to go ahead with its grand plans of turning coal into gas. In a letter to the Coal Secretary, H.C. Gupta, Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group president, J. P. Chalasani has sought allocation of captive coal blocks for the purpose of converting coal into gas. RNRL has already applied for licence to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board to set up piped natural gas (PNG) projects in Delhi and the National Capital Region. The board is in the process of finalising the guidelines for such projects. In his communication to the Coal Ministry, Mr. Chalasani has mentioned that the company was in the process of setting up 28,200 MW electricity generation capacity projects. ------------- Price is what you pay.Value is what you get. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2008 at 10:55am
| I think RNRL wants to send a man to Mars and a woman to Venus. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2008 at 11:01am
Where do the investors go? Into the Black sea  .------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2008 at 11:32am
What are the assets of RNRL ? Dont give the answers as share holders  ------------- To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks . Benjamin Graham. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 1:40pm
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GOD knows ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 3:03pm
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Even God may not be knowing.
It's better to not waste time in guessing what RNRL is into as it might be injurious to health. Some market participants who tried to find out the same landed with lot of gas trouble!
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 3:09pm
RNRL actually has a website of its own??!!  WOW!! now that news itself should be enough for the stock to move up another 30-40%
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: Jarus
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 4:00pm
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ASSETS OF RNRL
MAVERICK PROMOTER
POLITICAL CLOUT ABILITY TO RECOURSE CAPITAL MARKETS
and last but not the least
A SET OF FOOLISH INVESTORS.
Sorry these are my personal views.Not intended to hurt any one.
Just a JOke ------------- Do what you enjoy and enjoy what you do |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 4:29pm
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i'm too busy still ROFL LOL !!! Just cannot believe that RNRL actually has a website ... ------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 4:47pm
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Sometime back RNRL submitted a Rs 100 form to the Delhi Muncipal Corporation for the distribution of the gas in households, Stock doubled in no time. I dont blame ADAG for that, I doubled my money in quick time and said good buy to the stock... For these kind of stks u need to be always on Gas. Those people who might have bought at the top end start talking abt fundamentals after they get hurt..
Did anyone checked fundamentals when RNRL and RPL rose sharply, everyone wanted to be part of that story then...
BTW, Long live Ambanis ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: catcall
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 8:31pm
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It's actually a contest guys, the first person who gets RNRL's business right gets the loot
The first runner up gets to keep a R-Com tower in his garden and that's not all,there are ten Mobile phones as consolation prizes ..... so hurry!!! ------------- There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 9:48pm
ha ha ha...And a R-Money trading account free.......khelo India khelo!
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: sjerry4u
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 10:33pm
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i have rnrl @ 143 what should i do with it?? i'm confused..
how long should i hold???? ------------- -Jerry- |
Posted By: catcall
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2008 at 8:55pm
I think this thread has already answered your question ------------- There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing! |
Posted By: Bhupan
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2009 at 9:56pm
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In my opinion we can avoid in India Airlines and aerospace Media Film makers and fashion labels thing |
Posted By: venkat
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2009 at 9:59pm
I would add Media and Entertainment
Aviation
Aerospace
Jatropha
------------- Life is always a fight....to finish at the start line. Problem-Use challenge, Tension-Use excitement,Ican't-Use i can,avoid no at the beginning of sentence. |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2009 at 10:25am
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Actually, at this point I love
media and entertainment,
airlines
film making is part of media and entertainment and there i like UTV software, it is the one stock in my portfolio that i am confident will be a mulitbagger.
As basantjee says,
Different opinions make a market.
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Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2009 at 10:37am
Hi, can you (or anyone) mention some listed Indian companies that have invested significantly in jatropha or (less likely) that derive significant income from it? ------------- |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2009 at 12:18pm
| Asian Electronics I think. They put some goop on one end and got petrol out of the other. |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2009 at 1:51pm
Asian Electronics was going to make fuel from waste plastics. The share was 'on fire' for some time, but ultimately it ended up burning the investor's money.
Similarly, a few years ago, the share price of Noble Explochem had 'exploded' on promises of producing biodiesel from Jatropha plantations. However, the end result was the same as that of Asian Electronics.
------------- When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2009 at 2:19pm
Yes, that is my recollection of AE as well. Fortunately, I wasn't active at the time of the second named, or I'd have bought into the stock. I'm a sucker for green stories. ------------- |
Posted By: Bhupan
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2009 at 2:58pm
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hmm .. should i add green companies .. suzlon is there and indowind fresh on mind ?? |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2009 at 4:11pm
I made a 2 bagger in Asian Electronics and 2-1/2 bagger in Noble Explochem. On the other hand I lost nearly 50% of my investment in L&T during the 2008 crash
 . So stupidity does not always get punished and right decisions don't always fetch rewards. ------------- When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2009 at 5:18pm
If you're a dedicated reader of Sucheta Dalal's site, you'll know that the number of multibaggers are vastly more in the totally unheard of and never to be heard of again segment of the market  . ------------- |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 05/Oct/2009 at 4:06pm
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deleted |
Posted By: Fardeen
Date Posted: 06/Oct/2009 at 7:16pm
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1.Aviation > needs loads of money for day to day operations and of course the volatile fuel prices apart from that high surcharges in India
2.Media > As it is a merry go round with endless enjoyment for promoters and less returns(or no return for the investor)
3.Property > To an extent as most of the companies are not transparent in their dealings. ------------- Success in not final and failure is not fatal, it is the courage to continue that counts. |
Posted By: venkat
Date Posted: 06/Oct/2009 at 9:11pm
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CNBC TV 18 interviewed Sunil MIttal again in the alpines of Switzerland yet again. Our industrialists favourite place I guess. I wonder Why? ------------- Life is always a fight....to finish at the start line. Problem-Use challenge, Tension-Use excitement,Ican't-Use i can,avoid no at the beginning of sentence. |
Posted By: siddharthshukla
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2009 at 1:22pm
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This is my first post here. WB & other great investors keep telling that one should stick to one's circle of competence. Now if one is associated with these supposedly bad industries like textiles,paper,dyes..etc how does he pick stocks coz his circle of competence would probably be in these industries. Does it mean that he's doomed to make no money in stocks ??? Is he at a disadvantage to a doctor/pharmacist or any other investor in a supposedly good industry. What does such an investor do?? I am personally in an industry considered bad for investors(semiconductors) & hence have this dilemma. My personal views are very much influenced by Ben graham & i usually don't look at the industry while picking stocks, i look at what i am paying & what i am getting. I would love to hear valuable comments of the boarders. |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2009 at 1:39pm
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You can develop CoC in different areas over the time. It needs lot of work but that is how investment works. WB keeps onf developing CoC in different areas. For example a criminal lawyer doesn't have any CoC due to work, and he can not even invest in his clients' business yet he can develop CoC by reading.
My personal views are very much influenced by Ben graham & i usually don't look at the industry while picking stocks, i look at what i am paying & what i am getting. I would love to hear valuable comments of the boarders.
If you don't look into industry how do you know what you are getting compared to other industries? If only past performance matters, there is no need of judgement. But you can see broad picture like infra boom, Housing Finance boom or go with FMCG companies with strong brands.
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Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2009 at 2:03pm
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Hi Sid,
As Manish mentioned you want to keep on developing new competence areas.
WB himself developed over the years, Pharma (J&J, Sonafi) , IT (bonds of Amazon), green energy etc are all stocks in sectors where he developed additional competence.
Another option might be to buy a set of stocks in an area which is generally down. Also, most doctors and pharma folks don't really invest in pharma stocks.
At least this is the anecdotal evidence i find. Perhaps because one is too aware about the short term problems in his/her company to look at the big picture. |
Posted By: siddharthshukla
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2009 at 2:44pm
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Thanks a lot Manish & subu, that makes lot of sense, i entered the market in the lows of november & i knew that this would probably be one of my best chances of picking up stocks so cheap, but due to no CoC & inadequate research i couldn't cash in on them . Manish when i said i am influenced by Graham that meant buying deep value stocks like Net-Nets or cash bargains where the industry wouldn't matter too much & in fact these kind of bargains are more to be found in the troubled or to be avoided sectors. In short you want to pay such a small price for the value that there is little chance of you loosing money. Any suggstions on how to go about developing one's COC, right now the only thing i can think of is going through annual reports of companies one likes & competitors. Also,Manish regarding the broad picture, its quite likely that the upcoming sectors or boom sectors are going to be expensive & hence doesn't it make sense to actually buy stocks in unloved sectors where you can actually get a good deal coz most ppl are selling rather then buying. |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2009 at 2:58pm
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Any suggstions on how to go about developing one's COC, right now the only thing i can think of is going through annual reports of companies one likes & competitors.
As long as I know it has to be learnt. You need patience and passion to the level of being crazy. Read books on investments and develop your own style. Follow industry make judgement and compare your judgement with assumptions with actual results. Don't borrow. And don't watch business channel.
Only on losing is not enough. Bcoz you actually lose to inflation and you don't see it. Rs. 100 ten years back is not equal to Rs. 100 today.
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