Commodities---Stop Loss!!!
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Economy, Markets and commodities
Forum Name: Commodities - Gurus call it the best hedge in current times
Forum Discription: Bring out a view on any commoditiy gold, silver, ferrous, non ferrous. STate what makes you bullish or bearish about that particular commodity and advise the relevant course of action
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1734
Printed Date: 26/Jun/2024 at 3:12pm
Topic: Commodities---Stop Loss!!!
Posted By: aloksahi1971
Subject: Commodities---Stop Loss!!!
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 1:23pm
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I want to share my experience with regard to commodities here and God willing with the help of Basant Sir and othe knowledgable people understand investing beter.
On reading Jim Roger I decided commodities will have to be learnt by me.After oppening the accont in the lack of any formal trg. I turned to Commodities control for SMS with regard to the commodities. Result my copus of Rs 75000/ has depleted to Rs 45000/ all due to the 85% times the stop is trigered.
Where can I get the charts for the commodities and instead of trading can one be an investor ( no not buy and hold Gold) in the trerms of understanding tamentals behind the movement of the commodities prices.
Losses and profits are huge due to the margin factor.
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Replies:
Posted By: Janak.merchant1
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 2:07pm
Speculation is very very unhealthy and unwealthy. Capital can get wiped off very easily. You just have to pick up phone and do silly things.
Be very careful with what you are doing. Speculation seems to be easy option to make money. And it is also easiest way to the poorhouse for people who do not know what they are doing. Many MBAs and so called intellectuals also have also burnt their fingers trying to make easy money in commodity speculation. Except one person whom i do not know personally, but have met, I do not know of anybody in India, who has made big money speculating.
Focus on your career. Be productive. Become knowledgeable.
Just my thoughts. And of cource, I am just echoing what one of my good friend was advising-telling me yesterday.
JM
------------- I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 3:10pm
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jim rogers runs a fund if you still love commodities get in touch with his fund do a google search and you will get it ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: aloksahi1971
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 5:34pm
| No Sirs, you get me wrong I am least interested in speculation . I want to learn this Commodity stuf because it will be where the action is. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 9:16pm
I usually dont like to comment on others, so I would leave the commodities control where it is. BTW, I have seen people with no stoploss giving recommendations only leading to being wiped out.
The One thing I would say about commodities, after speaking with some very sucessful commodities guys (In India and Overseas) that they have been through various booms and busts. They all agree that.....
Commodities react very sharply to prices changes in terms of demand and supply and thus, to know the market and experience it is the biggest from a "funny-mental" point of view. Very Importantly, different commodities would show different production pattern in subsequent years to the major price action.
Good Knowlegde of Economics is must, as you would have to understand the "Price Elasiticity" theory and also the "Law of Diminishing returns and Marginal utility". The latter comes more in Agro commodities and the former applies to the base metals pack broadly.
RE Charts: For the base metals pack, I use http://www.basemetals.com - www.basemetals.com chart package apart from the one on Reuters. Both are paid. Base metals is the cheaper one and would be recommended for base metals and precious metals. RTRS is only for one who can afford, however it has much much much more than just charts. Both are real time chart pack's. For static charts see http://www.kitcometals.com - www.kitcometals.com . IF you want charts, I would recommend http://www.basemetals.com - www.basemetals.com . They have a 7 day free trial. Try it to see it.
I dont track Agro pack very much, however http://www.futures.tradingcharts.com/ - http://www.futures.tradingcharts.com/ is a good website to begin with. It is FREE.
Re Losses: As traders, we need to be realistic about what is happening...not what "should" happen or make excuses for choices made. My choice is to favor the market in the long run...and take the price action as a confirmation of sorts. Importantly, learn to reenter the market even after one has been stopped once (and one was the last guy to get stopped before the market moves in the "Expected" direction again). Lack of re-entry courage is the biggest burden which I see on most guys.
Manish Dave ji...please add over here.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 11:19pm
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Apart from knowledge of various geo-political, demand-supply metrics, what is really needed is the emotional discipline in such trading. Besides risk management is another area where people commit mistakes. Very very few people adhere to the discipline & hence very few traders make money on a consistent basis. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 7:25am
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Bubbble and Kulmanjee has explined most. One needs to do homework on geo-political, demand/supply, price elasticity, substutes, emergence of new application, how fast can production grow, input costs, union actions, what currency you make trade in, price difference in diff mkt. Now if you consider all this factors it looks like as difficult as shooting a moving object. But you don't need to keep on shooting. Wait for the object to come closer to you and speed is very slow(margin of safety), you can shoot it then. You also need to be very very careful using margin. It is upto individuals so I won't go into specifics.
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Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 8:37am
Janak bhai....some call it speculation and others call it "Research", and descipline, and importantly have the coimmitment to believe in the research.
Afterall, we are in the business of "Anticipating the anticipation of others". One has to be proactive along with reactive to make money in the markets.
The Sad part of the markets is not the hardwork does not always pay off, as one could make a mistake in risk management. So to make money, one has to get the complete puzzle picture correct, rather than leaving only leaving only one cell in the wrong place to get the wrong picture.
Rembember....Markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.
Thus, I completly support the availability of a second career option, just if the need be. Good Educational Qualication is the most important in my view.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Janak.merchant1
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 3:04pm
Dear Bubble,
My this post was not meant for people-speculators or knowledgeable people who know what they r doing.
Of cource money can be made by intelligent moves in trading. No doubt about it. I am not against trading or speculation!
 But only people who really know what they are doing, what the odds are, what is the risk reward ratio etc can make money.
Educational degrees only may not be that useful in trading field. Here you require much more. Not many people with MBA degrees are ready to admit their mistakes. Their ego stops them from doing that. If they lose, they will blame it on markets, circumstances and what not. So they become what Kulman says:In the end they all are Mungerilals. Most people will talk about their profits. Very few are ready to admit my mistakes. I feel profitable trading can be learnt by keeping an open mind.
Profitable trading requires much more than what is usually visible to most. For most people it is the wish-hope of making easy money that pushes them into trading. They feel that they are capable. Just like succesful investing, trading requires lots of homework. And the good news for successful traders is that very few are ready to put in so much efforts.
I have never traded anything in F & O in my life.
Bubble, in past i have had occasion to observe one of my friend closely do his trading . He just specialised Sw and focused on Satyam. He used to inform me in advance about the likely moves based on the trading system he had devised based on 10 different parameters. He was right most of the time. We offered him to manage our money at very favorable terms/ This was six seven years ago. But he refused. He was afraid of losing our money. I do not know what stopped him but as Ed says, everybody gets what they want. We can meet that person when u visit BBY.
Best wishes,
JM
------------- I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money. |
Posted By: aloksahi1971
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 3:42pm
| Janakji, My quest is not to look at the charts and trade at each spike it is to buy and hold after understanding the underlying basics.A few days back aperson introduced me to the fact that Fuel prices go up in the summer due to the driving season ,these knowledge I did not have as I always thougt that the cost of oil will go up in the winter for heating purpose. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 3:48pm
I have no point of disagreement with you. I for one absolutely agree.
Other than that, you know, I completly believe in ...Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market. Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money.” ....Ed Seykotya
Intensions = Results.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 3:57pm
That's pure spin. By the same logic, one should always be "Long" on Oil forever, as the driving season and winter keep coming alternatively every year.
Why did Crude collapse in the summer of 2006 then?? It also collapsed in the Jan-2007, which to me is peak winter. Look at the historical monthly returns data, and it would give you the correct picture.
BTW, I can add one more reason for Crude moving in the "Summer"...The hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico from June-July till end of November.
Intense hurricane activity = High crude prices.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Janak.merchant1
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 5:18pm
Hi Bubble,
Many, in fact most people do not realise what he meant by Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market. Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money.
I have a relative who always has war type stories of his adventures in stocks-trading. During parties-marriages, many people gather around him to listen to his adventures. In each case, he will have differnt story, mostly the latest one. People are eager to to listen to him make and lose money.
I used to listen to the first part, how he made money. In all cases it was just plain luck. No thorough analysis. And he hates me. For obvious reasons. Well, he does not seem to have made any money in last 40 years. And now he is old.
But his habits do not die. I have learnt a lot from this person's life. If you challenge this person, he will start calling you names.
 .Whenever i hear his group of people being bullish, i am usually very careful And yes they were very bullish from Dec 2007.
Best wishes,
------------- I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 6:04pm
So for him....is this applicable??
"Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money."
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Janak.merchant1
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 6:34pm
The reality as perceived by me is this: He really really did not like to lose. But his love for drawing attention - attracting crowd was so strong that he needed to tell people those war type stories. And he is a handsome man. He was really in love with this idea that he can, for many many minutes make people stand and listen to him. May be he used to derive satisfaction that the fairer sex also must be admiring him for drawing so much attention of so many people. His trades were always exciting. Never boring. They had many ups and downs. What he loved was drawing attention, Not really making money.
He got what he wanted. And he continues to get what he wants. It's a trap. But he does want Attention. Not money. This is where i saw Ed Seykota's theories working. Can you, Bubble, explain this to us why this person does what he does?
By posting these types of posts on TED, we are also getting something that we want!!
. Actually for me TED is a nicest place to exchange ideas with like minded people. And thanks to BM's TED, i know many more people in my life. Specially BM, M Kul, Bubble, Deepinsights, Kayals, Snehal, Mark, Chirag and Nitin and many more. I wanted to make friends with like minded people and TED provided the platform!  Best wishes
JM ------------- I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money. |
Posted By: Janak.merchant1
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 6:43pm
Dear Mr. Alok Sahi,
Understanding the basics will take lots of time and effort on your part. Are you ready for that? By keeping an open mind u can definitely learn. But many times what appears to be obvious to a novice trader is usually a trap by professionals. Be careful while speculating is what i can suggest. For others it wud make sense to learn investment concepts.
All these years it has made sense for me to read investment concepts. It takes much more time then what i had originally anticipated and forecasted!!!
 So now i know that i m not good at forecasting. Commodities trading is very risky. One of my frinds's brother is a sub broker for commodities trading and he has in past told me horror stories of his clients getting wiped off in a very short time. Their stop losses did not work when the market was in the low volume zone.
JM ------------- I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 7:00pm
Janak Bhai...
I guess, you have already answered the question. He is trading this way, because he wants attention and NOT money. That is exactly what he wants.
The specific reason for this behaviour could be anything, from being brought up..to anything else (I dont want to speculate!). My sense is that IF he becomes a politician, then he might make money as a trader, as his Political image would garner attention!!!
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 7:04pm
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The Black Swan is a must read for anyone who thinks that he can forecast.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 10:10am
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 12:04pm
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Some time ago, Sucheta Dalal of Moneylife magazine had called Birla Corp a growth cum value stock. But the market meltdown has hammered Birla Corp. The stock took a hammering after employees at the company's West Bengal plant went on strike. What do TEDdies think of Birla Corporation? Some info on Birla Corporation. CMP - Rs 197.10 Market cap: Rs 1,519.70 cr. Balance Sheet info
Ratios
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 3:57pm
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This is a Ramdeo Afavourite and will move in tandem with cement prices. I hear that after taking over the assets of the MP Birla group RS Lodha has initiated efficiency programs for all MP Birla companies and they are expected to deliver.
But finally it is a commodity player whose fortunes are linked to the price of the unbderlying product. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 9:56pm
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dr doom sees big time correction in commodities in 2nd half of this yr.full report on bs.for once let us hope the pony tail is right.he also loves taiwnese stocks and goes to say that china is not yet in buying territory. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 10:08pm
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I almost fell off my chair as I heard him say that even the Fed can fail!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 10:15pm
I am not able to identified the person whom you talk about but FED has lost their CREDENTIAL that for sure.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 10:28pm
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Dr. Marc Faber. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 10:32pm
Got it.
Thanks.
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Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 10:33pm
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One of the Hedge Fund Manager's testimony before committee of US Congress about Speculation in Commodities Future market:
http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf - http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 08/Mar/2009 at 1:08pm
Can tea be called a commodity.....it has done quite well even after the global financial crisis ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 08/Mar/2009 at 8:50pm
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Guess who are the two people talking up commodities in the last 5 years ? Marc Faber and Jim Rogers. ( Biggest bears on stocks ) ------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2009 at 11:38am
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how long will commodities last
Via Gala time Nice Pictorial http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2605/26051202.jpg - http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2605/26051202.jpg |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 05/May/2009 at 8:42pm
| http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/land-grab-the-race-for-the-worlds-farmland-1677852.html - Land grab: The race for the world's farmland |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 14/Sep/2009 at 1:45pm
Quote attributed to Jeremy Grantham:
Compound growth rate --- an oft sought goal. ------------- |
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 17/Sep/2009 at 12:27pm
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This is thread for commodity (I have not read anything so far on this thread) but I wish to share a little experience here. On May 2009 because of some repeated request I opted for opening a commodity account with a broker with its branches here and there in India and the firm is headed by a lady with lots of balck hair on her head (as found her on TV18 at times)! In anyway the account was opened in May 2009 with an investment amount of 75000. Full freedom was given to them and because of any lack of knowledge in commodity I gave them freedom to utilize the money but preferably I requested to play only in GOLD. I do not know why but I am very bullish on that yellow metal (may be because I do not have much of that metal). They promised me that they will give very high return because they get SOLID CALL from ------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 17/Sep/2009 at 8:30am
Having seen the operations of a few brokerages and PMSs at fairly close range, I can tell you that handing over your money to them is a sure recipe to disaster. Most of these are staffed by bright young MBAs who can not think beyond an Excel sheet.
------------- When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée |
Posted By: kondalreddy
Date Posted: 28/Nov/2011 at 1:38pm
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Hi, I am looking for a stable and easy to use trading platform that can trade metals and also have the option of trading currencies (Forex trading)? |
Posted By: kondalreddy
Date Posted: 28/Nov/2011 at 6:16pm
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