TheEquityDesk XI - Year 2007 Performance
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Fundamental
Forum Discription: Discuss the operations and finances of any of your companies.Make the other participants aware on the investment opportunities available in a stock on PE free cash flow etc
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1499
Printed Date: 19/Apr/2025 at 3:29am
Topic: TheEquityDesk XI - Year 2007 Performance
Posted By: smartcat
Subject: TheEquityDesk XI - Year 2007 Performance
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 4:21pm
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Highlights -
- The 11 stocks in TheEquityDesk XI has returned 70% in the last one year.
- Sensex has returned 47% during the same period. However, around 30 mutual funds have given higher returns than TheEquityDesk XI.
- JM Basic was the top performing MF which has returned 108% in 2007.
- ENIL was the top performing stock in TheEquityDesk XI.
- Dish TV and NW18 were the underperformers. These two dragged down the overall performance of TheEquityDesk XI. All the other 9 stocks have outperformed the index.
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Replies:
Posted By: getmanoj
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 4:24pm
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Basant sir, you were saying that there might be a change in TED-XI team. have you finalized it? Manoj |
Posted By: BGKGURU
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 4:35pm
| i m really surprised with 70% resturn,may be we don't take avg price, that's why? |
Posted By: gemseeker
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 5:06pm
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People only talk about their successes in stocks, nobody wants to talk about the losses they have incurred in their investment race. Getting a 70 % return is an accomplishment. Moreover the plays like Dish TV / Network 18 are yet to Outperform the markets in coming years.
Bottomline is whether Tedies made money and I beleive they did.
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 5:38pm
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Unless and until HDFC bro gets out, i feel TED XI will continue to underperform MF bcoz these are stable companies. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: furkanalam
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 5:41pm
| Any changes in TED 11 for 2008..... |
Posted By: gcpradhan1
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 6:11pm
Do we need any special attention/changes to decrease the number from 30 od MFs to make TED XI more compitetive??? Seniors have to teach juniors !! ------------- Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years - Buffet |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 6:53pm
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We are doing pretty fine, no hassles. Some changes would be initiated as Basant sir mentioned earlier. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: shetty
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 6:58pm
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The bottom line are returns.
But returns are only a small part of TED. TED has helped me over the past year mature and become a better and more aware investor. This is possible only because of the time and efforts put in by those who have knowledge and expertise on investing. Three cheers for all the gurus whose posts have helped me and many others understand the market complexities a little better and become better investors. |
Posted By: vijinat
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 8:17pm
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[QUOTE=smartcat]
Highlights -
- The 11 stocks in TheEquityDesk XI has returned 70% in the last one year.
- Sensex has returned 47% during the same period. However, around 30 mutual funds have given higher returns than TheEquityDesk XI.
- JM Basic was the top performing MF which has returned 108% in 2007.
- ENIL was the top performing stock in TheEquityDesk XI.
- Dish TV and NW18 were the underperformers. These two dragged down the overall performance of TheEquityDesk XI. All the other 9 stocks have outperformed the index.
[QUOTE]
Good analysis. In a lighter vein, I bring the following info: (Source: deadpresident.com--Multibaggers of 2007)
SCRIP CMP YEAR AGO % GAIN
Ventura 67.60 0.04 168900
R R Fin 132.05 0.75 17506
INCA 132.90 2.25 5806
SAB 109.00 2.45 4349
PEERLESS 889.00 25.25 3421
I dont know why, the vociferous 'Premier Explosives' advertiser comes to
the memory at this point of time!
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Posted By: hkumar
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 12:12pm
HAPPY NEW YEAR to every body on this group and may this year bring even increased clocking of such handsome returns.
Three cheers to TEDDIES from my side as well. The kind of perspectives you get here is of immense help sometime even outside investing. You get the information sliced from almost every angle from negative to positive. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 1:44am
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More than returns, it is the process that counts for me. A 70% return, where I knew more or less that I would get 60-70% CAGR return is 100 times more better than a 3000% return where I had no idea whatsoever why it suddenly gave that 3000%. TED XI is following the right process, and that is what is of utmost importance for me at least!! Again, forgive any ignorant message of mine if posted unintentionally...I am still learning!! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 5:06am
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CONGRATULATIONS !!! ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 6:11am
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[QUOTE=Vinijee] Good analysis. In a lighter vein, I bring the following info: (Source: deadpresident.com--Multibaggers of 2007)
SCRIP CMP YEAR AGO % GAIN
Ventura 67.60 0.04 168900
R R Fin 132.05 0.75 17506
INCA 132.90 2.25 5806
SAB 109.00 2.45 4349
PEERLESS 889.00 25.25 3421
I dont know why, the vociferous 'Premier Explosives' advertiser comes to
the memory at this point of time!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Absolutely mindblowing, but does anyone has got the guts to invest in these stocks when they were quoting in single digits ?? I dont have Protecting my hard earned money is my first priority and I am happy with HDFC 30 % YOY returns !!! ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 6:18am
I had it in bulk at right time but I sold it very early in the game...  ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 6:58am
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Some real flyers there. Wonder how much serious money can be made in such stocks. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 7:09am
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everybody in his /her investing career will get that one or two yrs of mind blowing returns,but what is important is to get a reasonable rate of return for your entire investing lifetime..in a bull mkt execess as posted above are not uncommon but when the tide turns even lets say by 10% then it becomes interesting to see whose naked and who still has his trunks on. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 31/Dec/2007 at 11:00am
I guess this statement comes from experience. And I see this all the time with fund managers/ individual funds. JM Basic might have done well in 2007 but I wonder how they will perform in 2008 and 2009. Mr Subramanian of Franklin Prima/Prima Plus used to do extremely well in 2005/2006 but is now nowhere to be seen.
But why is it a rarity for mind blowing to continue over a longer period of time? Luck runs out? Or does following the strategy used in 2006 won't work in 2008?
Do we need to keep changing the way we invest every 3 years?
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 12:02pm
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You need market timing skills as Bubble says for those explosive sort of skills and mix it up well with your fundamental studies to stretch it to the maximum.... |
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 12:04pm
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The gold standard would be a 20-25 CAGR returns over a long horizon through various market cycles. |
Posted By: sunlight
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 2:07pm
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Congrats TED on this performance. A special thanks to Basantji, smart catji, deveshji, vivekji for changing the way we invest & making us more knowledgeable.
I am sure TED will do better in 2008. Basantji is way ahead on identifying financial sector as a star performers for next 2-3 years. 2009 banking sector reforms will be a major event. So, we will reap the benefits on Yes Bank, CBoP, etc.
CNBC Broker's poll has come out today. 100% of the brokers are bullish on banking sector whereas only 33% are bullish on power sector. Remember power sector was the star performer in 2007. If someone maintains an overweight portfolio on power sector, their portfolio may underperform in 2008!!!!
One of the underperformers of 2007 Dish TV will perform well in 2008 and the indications are already out in Dec'07 with stock rallying over 45%. Also tune in for changes in TED from Basantji.
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 4:16pm
Power sector picked up steam only in late 2007. Craze for a sector rarely gets over in 3 months. 2008 could still remain the year for power stocks.
Generally, once the investors are done with popular large caps like Rel Energy, Reliance Power, Tata Power, GMR etc, they will start looking at other existing players in the sector. Atleast that's what I'm hoping for!
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Posted By: sunlight
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 4:28pm
Smarcatji - in the NDTV broker's poll, Reliance Energy came out as the top stock the brokers will SELL in 2008. I agree that sectors do not go out of favor in 6 months. But we are living in crazy times, where sensex returns in past 6 months is more than 25%. May be some more steam left in power stocks.
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 10:01pm
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Craze in Power stocks will remain till RPL listing. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 10:01pm
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Hi Smartcat,
Sensex is a very wrong Benchmark for TED XI. I cannot recall the TED XI stocks but as far as i could remember, not many constituents of TED XI are part of sensex. I think something like a BSE 200 should be a better reflector......by the way, have you worked out the alpha of TED XI?????
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 10:31pm
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Actually, I personally feel TED XI should compare itself to BSE MIDCAP when markets are upwards and should compare with the sensex when markets are falling. That way we would get a real good feel of how TED XI is doing. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 11:08pm
| I know what''s Beta. But what's Alpha? Do we have a Gamma too? |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 6:18am
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Alpha is the incremental return that aportfolio makes when compared to the general index/ market that it is tracking. If markets go up by 30% and your portfolio does 35% then alpha is 5%.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 8:58am
I believe its the excess of your risk-adjusted return over the return thrown by the benchmark. The key thing is risk adjusted return and not absolute return. So, even if the portfolio may throw 500 p.c. but if the risk adjusted return is 25 p.c. , alpha will be negative.
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 9:00am
Why so? Although I do adhere to the principle of prudence but unnecessary conservation distorts the picture. What we are looking for is the true and fair view and not the performance under worst case scenario.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 9:00am
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Right => The CAPM model. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 9:02am
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click here for more details on http://en.mimi.hu/stockmarket/alpha.html - alpha |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 9:05am
Which necessarily implies that if someone's long Ispat @ 12 rupees and made a 7-bagger it should come as no surprise if the alpha is low. Astute fund managers tend to hunt for opposite kind of stocks to the market as the beta tends to be low and hence in case they perform well, the alpha stays high.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 9:34am
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But except for those fund fact sheets I haven't met any indfividual investor who keeps looking at these greek terms.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 9:42am
| Since the comparision was being made with the mutual funds you have to look at alpha. The fight is always for alpha and never for absolute returns. So, if someone makes a superior return by betting on an ispat he wont be able to claim laurels if alpha is computed. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 01/Jan/2008 at 11:11am
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TheEquityDesk XI had high volatility in 2007 and hence I'm assuming risk adjusted returns would be low. Since TED XI mostly consists of stocks from two sectors (Media & financials), the portfolio sees bouts of outperformance and underperformance.
But the HDFC twins (and to some extent Bharti) brought some amount of balance to the portfolio.
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2008 at 5:43pm
| One should not worry too much about such outperformance and underperformance. For the first half of the year I was a big laggard. Then I picked up my speed and the last quarter was a zing. Most of us who are heavy in small caps would have managed to beat TED XI. But the thing to remember is that the first half performance of TED XI was really astounding. So, it will be something like sometimes you win and sometimes you lose sort of a game......and thats pretty good for then you stand on the ground otherwise success gets into the head, something which everyone should guard against. And most importantly I believe everyone goes through this. So, yes , the performance doesnt look as outstanding as we were getting the impression after the first half but overall it was a good year for TED XI. |
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2008 at 5:59pm
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performance would have been much better if MERA SHER KHELTA TO.
ANY HOW IT IS EQUAL TO RELIANCE GROWTH FUND WHICH IS BETTER WAY TO COMPARE.
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2008 at 8:06pm
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Not entirely related, but intriguing observations made in the article here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3243.html - Stock Market Cycle Investment Management and the Business Cycle
Some excerpts...
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |