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CRAMS - The next big thing!

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Sector talk
Forum Discription: Discussion on sectors with regard to specific matters. We will be discussing the various sectors of the economy and how they would perform. Basically a top down approach.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1002
Printed Date: 04/Apr/2025 at 8:46am


Topic: CRAMS - The next big thing!
Posted By: basant
Subject: CRAMS - The next big thing!
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 8:31am
Originally posted by vijinat

Originally posted by basant

Jaykumar is a smart man he recommended Aban lloyd 3 years back!
 
I would like to add here Nilesh Shah, of ex-Kotak analyst, who identified in CNBC interviews the PSU jewels Bharat Electronics at 195 and Bharat Earth Movers at 235.
 
Recently he told about the potential multibaggers available in two sectors viz., Logistics and CRAMS./r/ without any scrip names. Any guess by Davesh or Om on this? 
 
CRAMS: Divis, DIshman Pharma, Nicholas.Vimta Labs.
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in



Replies:
Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 10:02am

Suven also falls into this catrgory. It has signed pacts with ELi Lily for drug development and the market sources the company is soon going to get a big milestone payment for the same.



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Vishal


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 10:41am
Yes, but like all emerging sectors the leader (Divis) seems to be the only performing stock from this sector.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 11:17am
thats true but one supporting factor could be stated to be because of extraordinary results it has been giving for last few quarters. Also i think it has been the only oharma which has been able to commission its SEZ on time and have been able to get full benefits of same.
 
But having said all this sometime other stocks to tend to surprise on upside and may be suven could be another dark horse. Well it is still early days lets see how spans out in next few quarters.


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Vishal


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2007 at 11:45am
Frankly I have no idea on this sector except that the Crams opportunity could grow 10 times in 5 years. Why don't you start athread on Suven if you have studied that company. Also is Shasun  in this space also?

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 2:07pm
yes shasun also operates in this space only, this company is also buzzing on the same news of getting more contracts plus its recent acquisition of Rhodia based in UK has also started giving it some positive returns.

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Vishal


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 7:28pm
According  to market sources Suven Life sciences has the potential to trade around Rs 100 or so with a valuation of Rs 1000 crs plus. The expectations are that it should post easily a PAT of over Rs 35-40 crs this year and should trade around 30x. Add to this an imminent outlicensing deal for Alzheimer's NCE and milestone payments of USD 15-25 million, the stock should easily quote a valuation of over Rs 1000 crs. Moreover with greater FII interest in this stock reaching such valuation would not be any problem for this stock.

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Vishal


Posted By: gemseeker
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 9:10pm
Vishal ji, I knew about Suven capabilities when Suven  collaborated with Eli Lily. . I have been holding it for quite a while. Please let me know which market source you are refering to?
 
Regards,
Gem


Posted By: tyler_durden
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 9:26pm
Vishal you mentioned that current PAT can be easily 35-40 crores, but their last quarter profit was 2.28 crores, last years PAT was around 8 crores. so 35-40 crores would mean 300% -400% growth and EPS would be 4 or 5 from the current value of approx 1. taking the PE of 30 (as suggested by you) price would cross 100 very easily..rather it should be 150-200, but the question is:

are you sure that PAT would rise to 35-40 crores??

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If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 9:23am

The numbers reported are taken from research report by a leading broking house. And that company was itself involved in taking 10.45% stake in this company recently through block deal. I hope by know u must have the got name of the broking house who published report Wink



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Vishal


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 9:29am
Tyder I think if the company gets its milestone payment that has been continously being moving around for quite sometime, then getting a PAT of 35 or 40 crores will not be problem.The only thing to watch out for time being is when will the Company will getting that amount.

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Vishal


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 10:02am
I could not find the name of the broking house. Can u please mention it here or mail me on private mail.

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Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 19/Jun/2007 at 10:45am
Kotak Securities

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Vishal


Posted By: tyler_durden
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 12:33pm
so that increase in PAT would be one time phenomenon...will suven be able to sustain 35+ pat yoy in future?

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If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.


Posted By: pramodjain
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 1:00pm
Dishman pharma has given more than 50% return in the  last 6-8 month time. Hdfc equity fund of Prashant Jain Hold this stock since long time....this stock has a better number q on q


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 3:37pm

The milestone payment represents that the company will be getting on achieving the drug development upto the benchmarks set by the contracting partner. Once the drug is developed the company will getting royalty and manufacturing payments whereever the contracting partners will be launching that molecule. However there be some parts of the part of the world where the compantracting partners will be selling the drug individually. Having said that gains will still continue to come even after the milestone payment.



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Vishal


Posted By: mukesh
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 5:54pm
On 18-Junon BSE Kotak PMS bought 30,00,000 shares(10.41% stake)in Suven at Rs41.75. Seems the company will rock in future 

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Life gives answers in three ways-It says YES and gives waht u want. It says NO and gives u something better. It says WAIt and gives you the best


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 8:22pm
This block deal by Kotak in Suven does not carry much of significance as it was mere change of hands from one entity to other.
But the bigger picture lies with in its business model and the space in which it operates.  As I read in some report if I am not wrong of PwC that this space can continue to grow at 30% plus rate yoy till 2015 and India is direct beneficary of the same. I will try to confirm these numbers and will also post some more facts from that report as soon as I get the same.
Moreover this space will get a lot of attention on the coming months as more and more Pharma companies move to low cost and efficient markets like India with strong brand names like Dishman, Divis, Shasun,Granlues, Suven to name a few.I personally hold suven and divis in this space.


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Vishal


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 20/Jun/2007 at 8:31pm
Extracts from ICICI research report,quite old report data but information wise quite useful
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Suven Life Sciences, a pioneer in Contract Research and Manufacturing
Services (CRAMS), has successfully leveraged its R&D expertise and
relationships with top MNC pharmaceutical firms by venturing into drug
discovery and development support (DDDSS) and collaborative research partner
(CRP) services. It also has its own drug discovery research program and is
expected to file an application for an investigational new drug (IND) for
its lead molecule in the therapeutic area of central nervous system (CNS) in
Q1FY08. We initiate coverage on the company with HOLD rating.

Steady growth in base businesses: Suven's main businesses are CRAMS, DDDSS
and clinical research. We expect these businesses to grow at a CAGR of 22%
over FY06-08E to Rs 133.89 crore. The CRAMS model will continue to be the
mainstay of the company. The company will leverage its business
relationships with global life science majors. It is also forging new
alliances with other players in the life sciences industry across the globe.

Big break expected from out-licensing of lead molecule: The company's
focused R&D is in the therapeutic area of central nervous system (CNS). It
has developed tremendous in-house R&D competencies and has in-house drug
discovery research pipeline of 30 molecules. It is likely to file an
investigational new drug (IND) application for its lead candidate for
Alzheimer's disease in Q1FY08, which would trigger clinical trials. The
company can be in for windfall gains if the molecule shows encouraging
results in the clinical trials.

Robust clinical research order book: The company is sitting on an order book
position of Rs 14 crore from CRO services. It expects to realize Rs 5 crore
in FY07E, Rs 8 crore in FY08E and rest in FY09E. We expect further traction
in the business going forward as the company leverages its competencies and
infrastructure.

Valuations: We expect that the company would report an EPS of Rs 4.01 in
FY07E and Rs 5.34 in FY08E from its base businesses. However, in FY08E we
expect significant gain in the form of a milestone payment from
out-licensing deal for its lead molecule for Alzheimer's. We believe the
company would be able to strike a deal between US$50-250 million. On the
basis of the few out-licensing deals in the Indian pharma industry, we have
simulated various deal sizes and the pay-offs. On a minimum deal size of
US$50 million, the estimated EPS would flare up by around 54% to Rs 8.23. At
the upper end of the deal size, the EPS would spike by 555% to Rs 35. The
FY08E P/E would be in the range of 4.43x to 18.83x depending on the actual
deal size.



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Vishal


Posted By: us121
Date Posted: 23/Jun/2007 at 4:40pm
report by karvy on dishman
-------------------
 
http://www.myiris.com/shares/research/bin/showRep.php?redir=/shares/research/ksbl/DISPHACH_20070614.pdf&linkfrm=pdf&brokercode=Karvy%20Stock%20Broking%20Limited&code=DISHMAN%20PHAR - http://www.myiris.com/shares/research/bin/showRep.php?redir=/shares/research/ksbl/DISPHACH_20070614.pdf&linkfrm=pdf&brokercode=Karvy%20Stock%20Broking%20Limited&code=DISHMAN%20PHAR
 


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ABILITY will get u at d top. CHARACTER will retain u at d top


Posted By: us121
Date Posted: 26/Jun/2007 at 9:52pm
source: equitymaster
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Pharma: CRAMS gaining momentum...

Domestic pharma companies following the CRAMS (custom manufacturing and contract research) model have in the last six months evinced much investor interest with the stock prices of these companies registering stronger gains as compared to the large caps such as Ranbaxy, Dr.Reddy's, Cipla, Sun Pharma and GSK Pharma. In this write-up, we shall take a look at what potential this model holds and the challenges going forward.

CRAMS: Registering strong gains...
Company Price on
June 25, 2007 (Rs)
Price on
Jan 02, 2007 (Rs)
%
Change
BSE Sensex 14,488 13,942 3.9%
BSE Healthcare 3,794 3,820 -0.7%
Divi's Labs 6,011 3,068 95.9%
Shasun Chemicals 145 115 25.7%
Dishman Pharma 321 258 24.1%
Nicholas Piramal 294 263 11.8%

The positives...
Global pharma looking to cut costs: Increasing R&D costs, low R&D productivity, impending patent expirations and at the same time, pressure to reduce healthcare costs have propelled global pharma majors to cut costs and improve overall profitability. This is expected to translate into a strong outsourcing potential for low cost manufacturing destinations like India and China.

India has the advantage: The introduction of the product patent law in India has opened the doors for global pharma companies to establish either a manufacturing or research base in the country. At the same time, India has developed world class manufacturing skills, which can be gauged by the fact that currently, India has the highest number of plants approved by the US FDA outside the US (75 in FY07). Another point to be noted is the low cost advantage offered by the country. India has 6 times the number of trained chemists in the US at a tenth of the cost (Source: Nicholas Piramal). Indian labour costs are one seventh that of the US. At the same time, a majority of the Indian pharma companies are present across the value chain and are able to provide end-to-end capabilities right from custom chemical synthesis (CCS) to formulations. This gives them an edge over its US and European counterparts.

Stability in revenues: Considering the fact that contract manufacturing agreements are long term in nature i.e. around 5 years or more, there is stability at the topline level as compared to companies competing directly in the generics market. Companies such as Nicholas Piramal have chosen to adopt a 'collaborative' approach as opposed to a 'confrontational' approach and hence, the focus on partnering with global innovators.

The challenges...
Strong customer relationships required: Custom manufacturing considerably stresses on building strong relationships with clientele. It tends to be a lengthy process, as the time gap between acquiring customers and the actual revenue flow tends to be around two years. That said, considering the time lag, majority of the Indian players focusing in this area are looking to grow this business through the inorganic route. The rationale for the same is simple - access to a wider client base and new technology platforms.

Flexibility issue: For patented products, a CMO can manufacture products only for the innovator of that particular product and not for any other company. This is in contrast to contracts with generic companies, where there is flexibility. Therefore, despite the growth potential in this industry, there is likely to be a shortage of clients - a risk, which custom manufacturing players partnering with global innovators will have to contend with.

Type of product and product approval: Product approval is a critical issue, which will determine the revenue generating potential for contract manufacturing players in India. For players partnering with innovator companies, the type of product assumes significant importance. For instance, if the agreement is for a product, which has just been launched in the market, revenues generated in the initial years will be lower. This is because the product is yet to contribute significantly to the innovator's revenues. However, if the product is already established in the market, then the revenue potential is high.

Looking ahead...
CRAMS will be an important export strategy for domestic companies who do not have the required scale to compete directly in the global generics market or for those who do not want to compete in the generics market. Also, consolidation in this area is expected to pick up pace globally as innovator companies look for CMOs that are present across the value chain. Despite the challenges in terms of acquiring and retaining customers, with the product patent era triggering domestic pharma majors to look at different business strategies to fuel their growth trajectory, CRAMS could be instrumental in further augmenting revenue streams.



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ABILITY will get u at d top. CHARACTER will retain u at d top


Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 12/Jul/2007 at 11:09pm

Suven Life Sciences - Press Release

News Body:  

Suven Life Sciences Ltd has announced that the Company submitted an application with Drug Controller General of India for grant of permission to undertake Phase-1 clinical trials with their investigational New Drug (IND) SUVN-502.

SUVN-502 is novel, potent, safe, highly selective and orally active antagonist at a central nervous system serotonin receptor site 5-HTs intended for the treatment of cognitive disorders such as Alzheimer's and Schizophrenia.

Treatment for Alzheimer's disease and Schizophrenia is an unmet medical need. The Company's primary focus is to discover drugs that address significant unmet medical needs.

The Company is committed to neuroscience research and for development of new treatments for neurological disorder. The Company's discovery research focuses on Central Nervous System (CNS) disorders through novel mechanisms using small-molecule medical chemistry approaches. The Company's CNS drug discovery scientists at Hyderabad, India are pursuing innovative ways to develop treatments for a variety of CNS disorders like Alzheimer's, Schizophrenia, Depression, Cognitive disorders and Neurodegeneration.

The Company, a Hyderabad based Life Sciences Company, pioneer in Contract Research And Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) since 1995, "Drug Discovery and Development Support Services" (DDDSS) since 2005, and Collaborative Research Partner" (CRP) with global pharma majors since 2006.

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Vishal


Posted By: vivek.650
Date Posted: 29/Aug/2007 at 11:32am
Here is new entrant CELESTIAL LABS LTD. bse code 532871 @ 47/= as on 30.08.2007 in the field of biotechnology/bioinformatics & clincal research area. It is a Hyderabad based Pharma IT company and has one patent so far to it's kitty before 22 July 2007 IPO at Rs. 60/= It is in all likelyhood of future biggie .Honhaar veervan ke hott cheekane paat.I request MR. Basantji to look into this baby & biggie of future.To me it seems a early bird incentive and has a proven promoter & management which will be further proved Q-O-Q and time to come.Thanks.

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vivek


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 4:19pm
How about these pure research companies like SPARC and the proposed spin off from Nicholas.Remember ICICI ventures invested in the Dr. reddy research arm also Nicholas will hold only 18% in its research entity so that it does not have to consolidate accounts - that indicates these companies should be under some losses but over a period of 3-5 years they could become huge.
 
Any comments from people who follow this sector?


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:38pm
Originally posted by basant

How about these pure research companies like SPARC and the proposed spin off from Nicholas.Remember ICICI ventures invested in the Dr. reddy research arm also Nicholas will hold only 18% in its research entity so that it does not have to consolidate accounts - that indicates these companies should be under some losses but over a period of 3-5 years they could become huge.
 
Any comments from people who follow this sector?
 
Very few companies seem to be able to convert research to economics - it seems a bit like mixing science, art, process disciipline and deal making.
 
Those who do have tended to be very successful - companies like Matrix, Glenmark, Divis Labs etc.  but literally there are tons of companies that have failed to capitalize in this endeavour and the costs is almost always borne by the shareholders.


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"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:41pm
So it doesn't make sense for anyone to put even 1% of his portfolio here.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 7:49pm
Originally posted by basant

So it doesn't make sense for anyone to put even 1% of his portfolio here.
 
Basantjee: That's quite a final conclusion. I am basically saying that this aspect may have a very early stage venture kind of risk - where many fail and a few blockbusters may make up for all the failures.
 
Some of the companies like Glenmark, Matrix had previously a blended kind of profile where they made their bread and butter from more stable businesses - they kept investing in their own R&D and when it worked out they got the upside of that too.
 
Pure R&D divisions can work out but the risk reward ratio is high risk and high reward. As we often tend to go for low risk high reward scenario's that may not fit for all investors.
 
PS. CRAMS is actually low risk high reward model as you get paid for R&D work and manufacturing and if a breakthrough comes the company may be able to capture some of the upside as well (depending on the negotiated deal)


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"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 1:49am
 One of the country’s leading contract manufacturing and research company http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1122123 - to supply chemical compounds used in manufacturing of medicines and agricultural products.

Though the company only said the deal was worth “multi million,” industry experts peg the figure about $300 million.

“We have an added advantage. Most of the suppliers have Private Equity (PE) investments in their companies. Syngenta came to us as we do not have any PE funding thus the came to us due to confidentiality reasons,” said R Sankaraiah, executive director — finance, Jubilant Organosys.

 



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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 21/May/2008 at 10:37am

I was going through Divis Labs site, their Investor presentations are not updated but the financials looks solid. For 9mFY08, EPS is up almost 200% at Rs.39.69. If anyone can send me a report on this company and the CRAMS space in general then I would love to study the businesses.



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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 21/May/2008 at 11:17am

Corn-based plastic heading for pharma packaging use?

http://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com/news/ng.asp?id=76049-metabolix-archer-daniels-midland-biodegradable-packaging-mirel - http://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com/news/ng.asp?id=76049-metabolix-archer-daniels-midland-biodegradable-packaging-mirel


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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 22/May/2008 at 2:51pm

CRAMS INSIGHTS, please read here:

http://www.knowgenix.com/release/CRAMSInsights_Jul07.pdf - http://www.knowgenix.com/release/CRAMSInsights_Jul07.pdf

 
 

http://www.icis.com/Articles/2007/07/23/9046313/global-ambitions-for-indian-fine-chems.html - http://www.icis.com/Articles/2007/07/23/9046313/global-ambitions-for-indian-fine-chems.html

 
Relationships between Innovators and Indian CRAMS firms

Indian CRAMS firm

Pharma innovator

Object of relationship

Cadila (through joint venture)

Altana

Two intermediates for pantoprazole

 

Mayne

Intermediates for eight oncology products

Divi's Lab

Mylan

Active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) for leviteracetam

 

Merck, Abbott and GSK

NA

Dishman

Solvay

API for eprosartan mesylate

 

AstraZeneca

Intermediates for esomeprazole

 

GSK

Intermediates for three products

 

Merck, Abbott and GSK

Intermediates for three products

Jubilant Organosys

Eli Lilly

CCS for three molecules

 

Novartis

Oxcarbazepine in India

 

GSK

Lamotrigine

NPIL

AMO

Neutralizing tablets

 

Allergan

APIs

 

AstraZeneca

APIs and intermediates for many products

 

Global Hospital Products

APIs for many products

 

Pfizer

APIs/formulations for veterinary products

 

Eli Lilly

Drug discovery agreement

Shasun

GSK

Ranitidine

 

Eli Lilly

Nizatidine

 

Boots

Ibuprofen

Suven

GSK

Intermediates for abacavir

 

Eli Lilly

Intermediates for losartan

SOURCE: ENAM RESEARCH

Recent Landmark Deals

Company

Asset Acquired

Date

Nicholas Piramal India Ltd. (NPIL), Mumbai

Rhodia's inhalation business

Dec 04

NPIL, Mumbai

Avecia's custom manufacturing business

Dec 05

NPIL, Mumbai

Pfizer's Morpeth, UK-based manufacturing business and long-term supply agreement through November 2011

Jun 06

Shasun Chemicals and Drugs Ltd., Chennai, Tamil Nadu

Two UK-based plants of French pharmaceutical companyRhodia

Apr 06

Dishman Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals, Ahmedabad, Gujarat

Carbogen and Amcis

Aug 06

Mylan Laboratories, US

Controlling stake in Matrix Laboratories, Hyderabad

Aug 06

Jubilant Organosys, Noida, Uttar Pradesh

Hollister-Stier Laboratories

Jun 07

Dishman Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals, Ahmedabad, Gujarat

Solvay Pharmaceuticals' cholesterol, vitamin D and analogs
businesses, and facilities in Netherlands

Jul 07

SOURCE: ICIS

Suven gets patents in China, SA

http://www.biospectrumasia.com/content/210508IND6225.asp - http://www.biospectrumasia.com/content/210508IND6225.asp

"We are very pleased by the issuance of these patents in these countries to Suven for our drug candidates that are being developed for CNS disorders which targets an $18 billion potential market opportunity globally" says Venkat Jasti, CEO of Suven.



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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 22/May/2008 at 8:46pm
At a CMP of 1450 and market cap of 9500 crs, Divis is available at a FY09 PE of less than 20. CRAMS market is $31 bn opportunity. If one looks at the MF holdings, all the top MF's are holding the stock. Buy and forget funda should be applicable in this case.

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 23/May/2008 at 1:54pm
ENAM estimates an FY10 EPS of 91 for Divis with an ROE of 44%. Since these analysts are conservative in their estimates, we can assume EPS to cross three digits.
 
Nice article in http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1155763 - DNA on CRAMS .
 
Religare on Divi's
 
Religare Securities has maintained buy on Divi's Laboratories and has revised the target price to Rs 1,825 from Rs 1,686.

Divi's posted above-expected results for October-December of 2007-08 driven by higher-than-estimated growth in the custom chemical services segment. This segment has grown at over 100 per cent year on year, which is notable considering that the growth has been achieved in the normal course of business without the execution of any one-time contracts, said Religare in its post earnings note.

Generic API also reported healthy growth of 58 per cent year on year to Rs 140 crore led by the performance of five key products. The strong operational performance resulted in EBITDA margin expansion of 1,100 basis points to 39.4 per cent while profit after tax more than tripled to Rs 100 crore.

Divi's mega capital expenditure of Rs 250 crore executed over FY05-FY07 has generated significant value in 2007-08. Capacity expansion in custom chemical services enabled the company to execute more contracts from innovators, while its focus on niche, difficult-to-manufacture APIs resulted in market leadership for key products. Infrastructure for the launch of carotenoids, a $1billion opportunity for the company, will be commissioned in February and will contribute to revenue in 2008-09.

In the light of strong Q3 results, Religare has revised their earning per share estimates upwards by 6.7 per cent and 8.1 per cent for FY08 and FY09 respectively. The brokerage expects Divi's to be one of the key beneficiaries of increased outsourcing from innovator pharma companies.


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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: anthro
Date Posted: 23/May/2008 at 7:29pm
 
Just a perspective to share -
 
The real leader in CRAMS is expected to be Syngene whose ipo is expected soon . Today its a fully owned subsidiary of Biocon . Biocon straddles art,science,process discipline and deal making . It is a products,services company with 2 potential blockbusters IN-105 ( Oral Insulin Drug potential market of 1-3 billion USD which is in phase 2a ) and T1H ( arthritis drug - in phase 2b ) .
 
Interestingly Biocon remains undiscovered as on date ( despite demonstrable intellectual property and pricing power and despite a 1:1 bonus / 100% dividend announcement ) .


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Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 23/May/2008 at 9:27pm
Originally posted by SaneCounsel

 
Just a perspective to share -
 
The real leader in CRAMS is expected to be Syngene whose ipo is expected soon . Today its a fully owned subsidiary of Biocon . Biocon straddles art,science,process discipline and deal making . It is a products,services company with 2 potential blockbusters IN-105 ( Oral Insulin Drug potential market of 1-3 billion USD which is in phase 2a ) and T1H ( arthritis drug - in phase 2b ) .
 
Interestingly Biocon remains undiscovered as on date ( despite demonstrable intellectual property and pricing power and despite a 1:1 bonus / 100% dividend announcement ) .
 
operational performance has been mute.


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"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet


Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 23/May/2008 at 12:42pm
While at CRAMS, why not take a look at two decent players - Venus Remedies and Suven. The former is growing nicely with an EPS of 50 per cent CAGR for the past several years and still available at a decent P/E ratio.

Suven is of course a high risk high rewards game.


Posted By: stocks.student
Date Posted: 23/May/2008 at 2:53am
Biocon also into CRAM?

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Stocks.Student


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 23/May/2008 at 10:43am
Divi's has an established relationships with the top 20 innovator pharmaceutical companies. EBIDTA margins, ROE and ROCE are above 40% for Divi's. EPS CAGR of 40% over the next two years. I prefer Divi's over other players in this space.

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 26/May/2008 at 12:17pm
From Citi Global Healthcare Conference report
 
Wyeth & Pfizer outlined their plans to rationalize manufacturing sites as they step up their outsourcing efforts. Pfizer indicated that it now outsources 17% of its manufacturing (up from 8% in 2004) and intends to increase this to 30% by end-2009an incremental US$1bn worth of outsourcing. We believe that the focus on seeking strategic partnerships in the areas of manufacturing & research is gaining momentum and outsourcing appears to be becoming an integral part of corporate strategy for Big Pharma. We expect the quantum of outsourcing to increase materially going forward and Indian companies in this space are likely to be key beneficiaries. Nicholas Piramal remains our best play on innovator outsourcing.


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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 26/May/2008 at 12:57pm
BS carries some analysis on Jubiliant...


Jubilant Organosys is investing in expanding capacities and acquiring companies to diversify its presence and improve revenues.
 
Contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS) company, http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=si&autono=324015 - Jubilant Organosys is banking on volume expansions and is laying thrust on outsourcing to boost its revenues.





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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 26/May/2008 at 1:20pm

India is likely to be in the league of top 10 pharmaceutical markets by 2020. As per the Government of India's annual report 06-07 the Indian pharma industry is worth about $12 billion (over Rs 55,000 crores) as of now which includes $4.5 billion in exports of drugs, pharma and fine chemicals. As per McKinsey, by 2010 this Indian market will be $ 25 billion.

I bet on Jublient org in long run.



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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 26/May/2008 at 1:58pm
Investors have not really made huge money from Birlas and family. Jubilient being part of that family.

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/May/2008 at 2:16pm
But their son-in-laws have. The two groups Birlas and Bangurs have given huge benefits to their son-in-laws. This is across the board as suppliers/vendors/dealers/employees etc. In some cases a few small units have also been gifted away to them.
 
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 26/May/2008 at 3:30pm

Earlier, Arch was know as Merven drugs. ARCH is a highly profitable company in which
ICICI Venture holding approx 14% equityand ILFS holding around 5%
equity(stake acquired at Rs 150/ perhaps). It is reliably learnt that
ARCH maybe listed on BSE/NSE somewhere this year or next at around Rs 450-500/.
Promoters are following Matrix Lab model (acquiring companies with
different portfolio). It may be another Divi’s too.



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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 26/May/2008 at 6:25pm
Globally, drugs worth $70 billion would be going off-patent by 2011 and Indian companies providing contract manufacturing services are expected to garner approximately 30-40 percent of this opportunity.

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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 26/May/2008 at 10:27am

Along with Glenmark and Divis, Lupin is also a good play in the pharma space. Company targets $1bn revenues in FY09, thats almost 50% growth over FY08. They forayed into CRAMS through acquisition last year.



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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 29/May/2008 at 5:05pm

Lupin is talking to potential partners who may take its herbal and synthetic psoriasis molecules on to complete the cycle of drug development.



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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 29/May/2008 at 5:25pm
Granules India also doing well.But a small player.

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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2008 at 7:49pm
Divi’s Laboratories has earned a PAT of Rs.348 crores on a consolidated basis for the year 2007-08, a growth of 87% over the previous year. Total income grew by 43% to Rs.1047 crores. During the last year, the company earned a PAT of Rs.186 crores and a total income of Rs.738 crores. During the year, Divi spent an amount of Rs.176 crores on capital expenditure for augmenting capacities at its Units. The Board of Directors of the company has recommended a dividend of 200% on the equity shares, subject to approval of the members.
 
Nutraceuticals Manufacturing facility has been commissioned and commenced commercial operations effective 1st June, 2008. This facility with the state-of-the art beadlet technology is the first of its kind to be set up in India. Several application products have been developed fully and some of these are being marketed commercially through its subsidiaries in USA and Europe as well as directly.


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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2008 at 12:59pm
There is new found and newly listed ANU'S LAB seems a great multibagger stock to be in.I do request Mr.Devesh to look into it and make studies behind this hidden future gem of next Divi's Lab in making.

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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: kumardiwesh
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2008 at 1:07pm
Life science sector will come to LIFE after Reliance life science IPO (In year 2008 dec or early 2009).This sector has huge potential along with Bio-tech sector.
We just have to wait a year or two


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"History does not tell you the probability of future financial things happening" - Warren Buffett


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2008 at 4:52pm

Anu's Lab is engaged in the manufacturing of basic, advanced intermediates and fine chemicals and supplying them to various drug manufacturers.

K Haribabu, MD of Anu's Laboratories said, the company was focused more on the manufacturing side in the CRAM space. He said going forward the company hoped to maintain margins, which he said were healthy right now.

He said the company was looking at growth opportunities available to the industry in the supply of intermediates, as well as by way of contract manufacturing operations. He added that the company was planning to invest in a Greenfield project in the Pharma City being developed by Ramky at Visakhapatnam where we will be able to take up this contract manufacturing activities and conversion of our own intermediates into APIs.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Hari Babu:
 
Q: First you can just outline the various businesses you are into and the purpose behind raising these funds?
 
A: We are manufacturers of basic and advanced intermediates of APIs. We have a range of products, about half of that we manufacture on regular basis and other on campaign basis. We command a dominant position in each of the products that we manufacture on regular basis, we command a. We are also engaged in manufacturing some intermediates for some of our customers on an exclusive basis. We also develop some new chemical entities for some of our customers.

Looking forward at the growth opportunities that are available to the industry, in the supply of intermediates as well as by way of contract manufacturing operations. We are planning to invest in a Greenfield project in the Pharma City being developed by Ramky at Visakhapatnam where we will be able to take up this contract manufacturing activities and conversion of our own intermediates into APIs for some of our customers.
 
Q: Your CRAMs pilot plant has been priced at about Rs 8.34 crore. What is your arrangement with Teva and what kind of http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/interviews/we-have-healthy-margins-right-now-anus-laboratories/10/05/337785 - Q: In the CRAM space, will you focus more on the research side going forward or are you focusing on manufacturing?
 
A: We will be focusing more on manufacturing, which is our forte.
 
Q: So you expect no significant uptick in your margins?
 
A: We hope to maintain. We have healthy margins right now.



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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2008 at 4:54pm

SOME MORE INSIGHTS: 

Anu’s lab has an over 60 per cent domestic market share of Dichloro Fluoro Acetophenone (DCFA), a key intermediate used in the manufacture of Ciprofloxacin. It is also one of the largest manufacturers globally of DCFA.

The company's clientele includes Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Matrix Laboratories, Aurobindo Pharma, Neuland Laboratories and Divi's Laboratories.

The company's state-of-the-art R&D facilities, located at Balanagar, Hyderabad, support the process of product development, contract research and customised synthesis programmes of the organisation.

 



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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2008 at 5:04pm
Well, Anu's has just been listed. Investors should look at established players like Venus Remedies which has been growing at 50 per cent CAGR for the past several years. What is more Venus is available at a little more than 7 times TTM earnings.


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2008 at 5:37pm
That is true , sir. But since, it's listing I have seen people grabing Anu's lab like anything.My sense is that it is going to be great one.The reason CRAMS & it's future profitibility.It is similar to Divi's lab.

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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2008 at 10:27am
No discussion for Anu's Lab the newly listed.It seems no one is interested in Anu's discussion, may be people watching whether it would be or not.In fact investors discusses only if MRP crosses 500+ in pharma sector.But, I am of the opinion that this stock is in line of Divi's and it may grow bigger.

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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Jun/2008 at 1:06pm
A public opinion is no substitute for thought - Warren Buffett.
 
If you are convinced about it do not wait for others but buy it and also share the logic in a new thread if possible.


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 12/Jun/2008 at 2:40pm

"A public opinion is no substitute for thought" rightly said.In fact I am making more insight study into this comapany before buying, hope it turns into the right one.



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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2008 at 9:55am

Entered into Anu's lab.It's time to fly.



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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2008 at 10:56am
then start a thread and educate other TEDdies.


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2008 at 11:37am
thanks! bought Anus lab at 283,so far so good.

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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2008 at 5:44pm
We're another year older and another year wiser
So put our brain to work,
And figure out those multibagger gift for us.
Happy ANU'S...


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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.


Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 12:28pm
Margin risk in CRAMS:
Plethico plans to trim CRAMS business

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/pharmaceuticals/plethico-pharmaceuticals/18/01/PP30 - Plethico Pharmaceuticals is looking at trimming its Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) business as low margins are being further squeezed due to higher inflation and surging crude oil prices.

 

"We will trim our CRAMS business because the margins are getting squeezed out. Many of our CRAMS deals are coming up for renegotiation and if we don't get what we want, we have to trim that vertical," Plethico CFO Sanjay Pai.

 

Pai blames inflation and surging crude oil prices for the margins to fall in CRAMS business.

 

 "The margin in CRAMS business is 6% and it is expected to come down to 3-4%," he said.

 

"However, we won't be exiting this vertical. There are some orders which are still profitable and we will continue with those orders," he added.

 

Plethico's revenues from CRAMS vertical is more than Rs100 crore per annum. Many of its clients in this vertical are Indian pharmaceutical companies.

 

The Company plans to set up a plant in Dubai for medicated lozenges at an investment of Rs100 crore. "It will be a fully automated plant and work on it begins soon," Pai said.

 

Explaining the rationale behind setting up a unit in Dubai, he said having a facility in Dubai helps the company to cover the Gulf region, the US and the UK easily than being in India.

  

Sourced From: Paradigm Shift Public Relations

 


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"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet


Posted By: mahesh004
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 10:56am
Is anyone following JB Chemicals...RJ picked 1% stake in it.



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