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 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Stock Synopsis
Message Icon Topic: Maharashtra Scooters - Deep value! Post Reply Post New Topic
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Topic: Maharashtra Scooters - Deep value!
    Posted: 01/Dec/2006 at 8:45pm
following information is taken from a blog:
CMP: Rs.291
Intrinsic value: Rs.840

Maharastra Scooters (MSL) is a great proxy for Bajaj Auto. The company has Bajaj Auto shares which have current value of Rs.756 per share of Maharastra Scooters (Bajaj Auto CMP = Rs.2560). Also MSL has cash per share of Rs.84 per share, which can add a further kicker to the stock price.

Conclusion: Maharastra Scooters provides the opportunity to enter Bajaj Auto stock at a 61% discount to the current market price. It offers a huge margin of safety to long term investors.

Does it make sense to invest in this co.MSL is like Tata Investment Corporation.Comments invited from everybody
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 01/Dec/2006 at 9:15pm
This seems interesting and yet dubious devesh ji. If that was indeed so, why wouldnt some big player lap it all up...Basant ji is need here.
 
Let's wait...
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 01/Dec/2006 at 9:58pm
Excellent point.Maharashtra Scooters holds 33.87 lac shares in Bajaj Auto- that makes it around Rs 915 crores worth of investment at rs 2700. ow on a per share basis this works out to Rs 800 per share for Maharashtra Scooters.
 
CV Desai is an astute value investor from Kolkata and he holds about 8%(through his company also) in Maharashtra Scooters. Bajaj Auto on the otherhand holds 24% in MS so Bajaj does not want to let go of this so soon. Basically MS has a dead business.Now I wanted to see how deep this discount was in case of MS.Many times things seem cheap and and they remain cheap that would be of no help to an ordinary investor.
 
Right now MS is avaailable at a 40% fall from its 52 week high of Rs 499 while Bajaj is off less then 20% from its 52 week high so the discount seems to be highest right now. Also with these companies they may lie dormant for a few years also so it is essential that investors understand that perspective before buying it.
 
This is surely a case of milk with a thick layered cream on top.


Edited by basant - 01/Dec/2006 at 9:59pm
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nikhil090
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Quote nikhil090 Replybullet Posted: 01/Dec/2006 at 10:23pm
Hi,
 
The only point in this case is when will the cream be available for appropriation? Also as Bajaj still holds 24%, they would not allow BAL shares to be sold in open market. So it again becomes a holding company with interests in BAL.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 01/Dec/2006 at 12:02pm
That is the problem these stocks appear cheap and remain cheap for long but the margin of safety is huge really.
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xbox
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 01/Dec/2006 at 5:58am
I see no point in putting money in MSL unless there is any prospects of restructuring. In case of MSL where business is dead, i suspect any restructing. Promotors will continue to hold all value in MSL and control it tightly.
I know many such companies where NAV is musch discount to current market cap. But r they worth investing. A big no. You don't want to be speculative and leave ur fortunes to uncertainity, when you have hundredes of good operating companies.
There are 2 use cases for such companies ..
 
1. If company is promotor of operating company - Like pantaloon Ind is of Prantaloon Retail. In such cases why would promotor like to sell it's holding. He is promotor of holding company and though this he acting in concert in operating company. It is his interest to retain holding company as such. If he sells shares then it is like selling it's own stake. Why will he do that if operating company is doing excellent. Such companies are generaly private companies but due to some historical reasons they are public but still promotor would like to make it as a dummy private company.
 
2. If company owns shares just for investments - One can find hundreds of such company. Which deals in shares as a extra income. These promotos put money in stock markets instead of in operating business for their gains. For exmaple a small tea company owns shares of RIL, INFY, LnT worth 20 Cr. Can you trust such promotors ? which instead of putting cash in tea business they put in stock markets. I guess NO.
 
I advise ppl to values a company from it's operating business point of view, not from investments. I know technically it is not correct but there is difference between knowledge and wisdom.
 
If INFY is know in the world, they are know by it's business not by it's investments of 1 Billion USD. etc. etc.
 
Investing in such companies belong to insiders/small type brokers etc not for mid/long term investors.
 
In should always look at operating company unless promotor is known for it's honesty and acumen. For example HDFC is holding company for insurance business but still HDFC is proxy to insurance company. Can we say same for MSL with greate degree of certainity. I guess no.
Can we say same for pantaloon indutries. No.
Can we say about nagreeka export. No.
 
So be little informed about padigree of promotor before making such speculative moves.
 
 


Edited by vipul - 01/Dec/2006 at 6:02am
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 01/Dec/2006 at 11:33am
Vipul ji makes some interesting and piquant observations but broadly the stock is cheap but whether investors will make money or not is open to a lot of question and debate.Personally I do not like investing in such companies.
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 22/Jan/2007 at 8:22am
Basantji,suppose Bajaj Auto buys stake 27% which Maharashtra Govt.holds, then is this a clear buy bcoz it will be holding total 51% stake.There were rumours that Bajaj Auto may settle out of court.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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