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aloksahi1971
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Quote aloksahi1971 Replybullet Topic: Selling out on company disappointments!
    Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 4:11pm
I was wondering if any other person has had paralisis after the slide in the Sensex since Jan.
I feel after reading the coments of Basant Sir with regard to Yes Bank in Outlook Money that most of us suffer larger losses due to this factor.A good investor I guess is nimble.
Any Thoughts?
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 4:44pm
Its not easy to cut losses eiuther loss of capital or loss of profit. It gets tougher when you have to justify it around to people around you. Perhaps on the biggest requisites of an investor is to dump the stock that he holds when he sees the fundamentals moving against him.
 
But it does draw a lot of raised eyebrows and frowns but that does not matter to me- after all I have to take a decision which seems right at the spur of that moment we cannot go back in hindsight and change the clock!
 
 
Personally I give a lot of time to the companies that I hold maybe one quarter or two quarter and am prepared to lose that incremental 25% once the story seems to be deteriorating but then we do need to sell out at a point.
 
If you don't bet you can't win!
If you lose all your chips you cannot bet! - Larry Hite


Edited by basant - 23/Jan/2009 at 4:45pm
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stockaddict
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Quote stockaddict Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 6:37pm

Selling goes against the grain  of a long term investor. Before he realises that the best time is past , price has corrected to so much extent that it is hardly profitable to sell. Also it takes only a few sessions/weeks to destroy years of capital gains. Sometime I  feel one should have a trader's mindset while booking out.

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arunshah2k
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Quote arunshah2k Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 6:56pm
I agree, by the time one decides to sell on earnings news, market had already discounted that fact.

Also, as I mentioned before it is a challenging thing to hold on to a stock after it has fallen 80-90% and with detoriating fundamentals in a bear market.

I found that in 2001 bear market, many midcaps fell 80-90% and their profits were devastated, but then when the tide turned, these midcaps became 100 baggers and with profits zooming.

Selling just because stock has fallen down 80-90% and company is showing bad profits does not mean the company cannot turnaround.

I know this is an overused example, but the thing that avoids me selling companies that have fallen 80-90%, is that Walmart also fell 80% in 1973-1974 recession, but then since has rebounded 500 times. I know all companies are not Walmart and Walmart is just one of case, but still.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 7:22pm
That is why one should buy cheap or else sell early if the purchase price isn't cheap.
 
Be the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results - Warren Buffett
 
If someone could sell at thhe tops and buy at the bottoms then he would have had his name in the Forbes list of Richest indians.
 
Somehow when markets fall the error of not selling early isn't too big that is because all stocks fall so if one stock is down 65% and a solid bluechip with steady growth is down 50% the incremental loss isn't that big as it appears provided the investor is able to wash his sins off the moment he sees that he has commited one.
 
 
 
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Shikari_Shambu
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Quote Shikari_Shambu Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 9:55pm
"Somehow when markets fall the error of not selling early isn't too big that is because all stocks fall so if one stock is down 65% and a solid bluechip with steady growth is down 50% the incremental loss isn't that big as it appears provided the investor is able to wash his sins off the moment he sees that he has commited one."

Great words Basantjee but mind always imagines what it could have been if he sold out at top and moved to debt or other asset class.

Also, a thing about percentages. Do you always analyze your investments from a percentage angle? I always do from an absolute angle.

For example,
1) If I invest 20,000 and the stock falls 50%, my (notional )loss is 10,000
2) If I invest 500,000 and stock falls 25%, then my (notional) loss is 125000

Obviously, I did better with my second investment but somehow that pains me more than the first ( more absolute damage).

Is there any technique you use to look at things objectively?
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stockaddict
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Quote stockaddict Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 10:52pm
[QUOTE=basant]That is why one should buy cheap or else sell early if the purchase price isn't cheap.
 
 
Somehow when markets fall the error of not selling early isn't too big that is because all stocks fall so if one stock is down 65% and a solid bluechip with steady growth is down 50% the incremental loss isn't that big 
 
What would you prefer at this moment, a large cap bluechip say Axis bank  trading at PE of less than 10 , which may grow at 20-25% or a midcap which is trading at PE of 2-3 with expectation of  30-40% growth for next few years?
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kumardiwesh
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Quote kumardiwesh Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 11:07pm
The primary question is visibility of earnings and not rate of growth of earnings.
"History does not tell you the probability of future financial things happening" - Warren Buffett
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