Other than investing in companies like Cairn or Reliance, there no way an investor can significantly benefit from high crude prices.
- Companies related to railways are too small & fragmented and don't have the ability to scale up quickly. Concor was an old monopoly PSU, whose monopoly status has been removed. BEML too is a stodgy old PSU.
- It would be difficult for bus manufacturers to grow at more than 10% every year.
Over the next couple of decades, our dependency on & demand for crude will go down if prices stay high. Slowly there will be a shift -
- Trains running on electricity rather than diesel.
- Buses & Trucks running on CNG - for this, the network of petro stations will be replaced with a network of CNG stations.
- Cars running on petrol/diesel + electricity (hybrid) or CNG. M&M is just one year away from introducing the diesel hybrid Scorpio.
- LPG replaced by natural gas or electricity (electric stoves etc) at homes.
Of course, this will result in new problems - Dependancy on natural gas and increased consumption of electricity. But electricity can be generated via non-crude sources of fuel like coal, nuclear etc.
Edited by smartcat - 04/Jul/2008 at 12:24pm