Active TopicsActive Topics  Display List of Forum MembersMemberlist  CalendarCalendar  Search The ForumSearch  HelpHelp
  RegisterRegister  LoginLogin

Equity Valuation Techniques
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Equity Valuation Techniques
Message Icon Topic: Cash on Balance Sheet - Real Value or perceived Post Reply Post New Topic
Page  of 2 Next >>
Author Message
basant
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
Quote basant Replybullet Topic: Cash on Balance Sheet - Real Value or perceived
    Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 3:14pm
Originally posted by Janak.merchant1

Originally posted by kulman

Noted.

Graham's thought was perhaps related to earnings from core business activities.
 
On a side note, value unlocking due to land bank/real estate/car parks etc was probably not within his circle of competence.
 
 
 
 
 
Hi Kulman,
 
One real life experience: We visited one factory at Taloja. Textiles. 85 crores sales. Profit 1.85 Cr. 3000 + workers. Huge place. Any mistakes in operatons will impact profits severly. How do u value this co with insufficient info. There is no way. Property bot at Rs 1 Crore worth more than few hundred. One more property at Banalore. Estmated gain Rs 400 Cr. Loans were taken to fund these properties. Interest has been paid in full.
 
Rs 2 Cr equity. Now c the impact. They have decided to sell Bangalore prop. Might sell even Taloja One. Sold Kandivali one.
 
It makes sense for them to close down. This is not a listed co otherwise it wud have been fun to but their shares.
 
If it is a textile plant, value goes down. But here property has given them unbelievable returns.
 
Yes even it is not inside my circle of competence.
 
Best
Very interesting situation but even in listed companies the problems originate because:
 
1) The deal to sell off land is not transparent i.e. you take some in cash some in cheque kind of stuff.
 
2) The Management might not give a one time dividend but continue to hold the cash. In that case company becomes cash rich instead of shareholders. For example Trent has maintained a Rs 100 per cash on its balance shjeet for the last 5-7 years!!!
 
3) Once this cash has been received the management might take up new diversification programs and that comes witha gestation so that is not why interested parties would have bought a stcok.
 
4) Shareholders are most uncomfotable when companies hold cash a cash equivalent can get a RoE of 9% only so putting a PE of 9 (growth) to this cash equivalent the final value is 81%  which means that cash in balance sheet is always valued at lower of what it is and companies appears cheap! Ouch
 
Best way to unlock value is the simplest which never gets done it entails:
a) Buy back shares from open market with cash received.
b) Declare a one time dividend with the money received.
 
We can discuss companies that hold cash on balance sheet here!


Edited by basant - 07/Jun/2008 at 6:42pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
IP IP Logged
Janak.merchant1
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 14/Jan/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 364
Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 4:42pm
 
[/QUOTE]
Very interesting situation but even in listed companies the problems originate because:
 
1) The deal to sell off land is not transparent i.e. you take some in cash some in cheque kind of stuff.
 
2) The Management might not give a one time dividend but continue to hold the cash. In that case company becomes cash rich instead of shareholders. For example Trent has maintained a Rs 100 per cash on its balance shjeet for the last 5-7 years!!!
 
3) Once this cash has been received the management might take up new diversification programs and that comes witha gestation so that is not why interested parties would have bought a stcok.
 
4) Shareholders are most uncomfotable when companies hold cash a cash equivalent can get a RoE of 9% only so putting a PE of 9 (growth) to this cash equivalent the final value is 81%  which means that cash in balance sheet is always valued at lower of what it is and companies appears cheap! Ouch
 
Best way to unlock value is the simplest which never gets done it entails:
a) Buy back shares from open market with cash received.
b) Declare a one time dividend with the money received.
 
We can discuss companies that hold cash on balance sheet here!
[/QUOTE]
 
Dear Basant, Trent will have to hold that cash for their future expansion. Same is the case i feel is with 3M. 3 M has plans to set up manufacturing base here when they get enough volumes. Otherwise it does not make sense to manufacture here. And they do not want to borrow at the time of expansion.
 
Management has to look at things differently. What you said abt lack of transparency in RE deals is fact which we have to accept.  You are also right abt co becoming rich and not shareholders as there might not be one time dividend etc. So our view as outside investors wud be different than the promoters. I agree with you abt what u have stated.
 
So basically we are at the mercy of their decisions. But if u know what they r doing, then to a certain extent we can make out what thay are doing with cash. I am refering to honest managements. Who are holding majority of the shares and are shareholder oriented.
 
Lets us c this situation: The real one. Capacity 6000 tonnes, about five years back. Free cash flows all these years. Cash accumulated and invested in MFs. Capacity has slowly been built up from 6000 to 40000 recently during 2007-8. All the cash accumulated has now been put to use for the core business expansion. Share was quoted 24 when i bought it. It went down to 18. Now 150.  All these past five six years, co kept on accumulating cash. I recommended them to go for buy back as market was not realising that intrinsic value was going up. Not becoz of cash getting accumulated but capacity was silently being ramped up without getting reflected on the A Report. Co did not want to borrow funds for their aggressive expansion plans.
 
They are targetting 200 crores sales within next two years. Capital is 6.5 crores. Products to a great extent are commodity type. But costing is their moat. MArgins will be under pressure as they also do not expect to maintan them. Now coming to the right point, they do not have any need for capex as their capacities have already been enhanced to the desired levels. So on 200 crores sales, if they make 8 % at the net levels, it wud mean 16 cr profits. Free cash flows are imp factor here. Since no major capex is expected, they do not need it, cash wud again go up.
 
How do u view this business developments? Wud u invest in this co tho products are of commodity nature? They have 12% all india market share. With added capacity that wud go up. Market share is not imp but it just gives idea abt the small overall market.
 
Your view wud be highly appreciated.
 
Best wishes,
 
 
 
 
 
 


Edited by Janak.merchant1 - 23/Feb/2008 at 5:23pm
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
IP IP Logged
Azure
Groupie
Groupie
Avatar

Joined: 10/Feb/2009
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 75
Quote Azure Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2009 at 7:58pm
Basantji... I have a question regarding Balance Sheet...
 
In a balance sheet where can we see the money raised from IPO...???
 
As we know DLF raised 9000 crores from IPO but in balance sheet where can we see that value..?
 
 
If predictions were true then stock markets wouldn’t be this exciting!
IP IP Logged
sureshbazi
Groupie
Groupie
Avatar

Joined: 06/Sep/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 99
Quote sureshbazi Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2009 at 8:53pm
Balaji Tele trading at Mcap 250crs and they have cash balance of 250 crs. so it is trading at cash levels. i agree that growth is a problem. there are many companys like this and many are trading below cash levels making the business value free.  is the valuation is correct for these business which is trading at free of cost ? this cash is generated because of the same current business.

Edited by sureshbazi - 10/Feb/2009 at 8:55pm
'It is only when you combine sound intellect with emotional discipline that you get rational behavior.' – WB.
IP IP Logged
basant
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2009 at 10:14pm
Is this their own cash or do they have debt on the balance sheet also.
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
IP IP Logged
Azure
Groupie
Groupie
Avatar

Joined: 10/Feb/2009
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 75
Quote Azure Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2009 at 10:19pm
Originally posted by basant

Is this their own cash or do they have debt on the balance sheet also.
 
Please answer my query too.
If predictions were true then stock markets wouldn’t be this exciting!
IP IP Logged
Mr. V
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 01/Mar/2007
Location: United States
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 903
Quote Mr. V Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2009 at 12:32pm
Balaji Telefilms is a zero debt company.
IP IP Logged
investor
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 06/Sep/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1745
Quote investor Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2009 at 7:28am
Yes, but do we know for sure that the 250 cr exists?
The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!
IP IP Logged
Page  of 2 Next >>
Post Reply Post New Topic
Printable version Printable version

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot create polls in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



This page was generated in 0.110 seconds.
Bookmark this Page