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ndzapak
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Quote ndzapak Replybullet Topic: KG Gas : Impact on Indian Economy and Industry
    Posted: 30/Jun/2007 at 8:16am

KG basin is the North-Sea of India. Humungous discoveries have been made by Reliance, GSPC and ONGC in the KG basin block. With the countdown for the first gas from Reliance field having started ( expected first gas in  second quarter of 2008 ,  initially the output is 40mmscmd which would be ramped upto 80mmscmd in another six months to a year )let us analyze the impact it will have on the Indian Economy and Corporate.

 

Indian Economy : These discoveries will provide the necessary fuel for the Indian Economy that is running along at a pace of 9% GDP growth. Basically it will transform a pre-dominant liquid fuel economy to gas fuel economy which will havefar-reaching impact on foreign exchange reserve, fiscal defecit and other macro parameters.

 

Fertilizer Companies would be able to substitute high cost naptha with a relatively cheaper gas thereby positively impacting their bottomlines and government subsidy.

 

Gas transmission & distribution companies like GAIL, GSPL, Indraprastha Gas, Mahanagar Gas,Gujarat Gas etc would be able to implement their expansion plans with the availability of increased gas. Development of city gas distribution (CGD) projects will improve the efficiency of energy usage and reduce the dependence on LPG, thereby again reducing the Government’s subsidy bill.

 

Power Companies like NTPC,Reliance Energy, GMR, Tata Power, Lanco etc would be able to improve the capacity utilization of their existing plants and  implement their expansion plans and with the availability of increased gas.

 

Medium Sized companies and SMEs would be able to convert their existing diesel based power plants to gas based power plant thereby reducing their power cost by atleast 30%.These would also increase the order-book of equipment companies like Cummins India and Wartsila for their gas-engines.

 

Pipe Companies have already started reaping the benefits and would do-so more in the future as also companies like Everest-Kanto Cylinders.

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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 30/Jun/2007 at 11:21am
Excellent analysis!
 
I have read that by the Bombay HC ruling on sale of gas produced from the KG-D6 fields will impacty RIL's stock price by Rs.100/share.
 
As Mitali says whats not good for RIL is good for RNRL !!!
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 30/Jun/2007 at 11:37am
India among world’s top 12 in gas reserves
 
Mukesh Ambani controlled Reliance Industries Limited's (RIL) enhanced gas estimates in the hydrocarbon rich Krishna-Godavari (KG) basin, taking the total gas reserves in the fields to 35.5 trillion cubic feet, will place India on the 12 spot among gas producing countries, next only to Iraq (ranked 11th). Besides, it will help RIL fetch better prices for the additional quantity of gas and meet a part of India’s energy needs. 
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 01/Jul/2007 at 12:09pm

Interesting analysis.

--------------------------------
As Mitali says whats not good for RIL is good for RNRL
 
By the way, Devesh I know that you know that these people are only news-readers.......nothing more.Wink
 
 
 
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Quote vip1 Replybullet Posted: 01/Jul/2007 at 1:49pm
KG Basin Gas will give around 62000 -95000 crores to The Govt Of India in the next 18 years as royalty etc for its share (30%-45%) .
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Quote ndzapak Replybullet Posted: 16/Jul/2007 at 3:52pm
Excerpt from Madhusudan Kela's interview on CNBC-tv18 relevant to this thread
 

Q: You have been in an extraordinary period for Indian equities between 1990 and 2005. How do you feel about India? What is ahead from 2007 onwards?

A: I do not know about in the one-two year period. A lot of people are worried about inflation, this and that going around etc. I am extremely bullish for a longer period of time. I think India on a relative sense is really poised. Where in the world can you get an economy, which promises to grow between 7.5% to 9%, and which has such a enormous democratic system, a very good legal system and an absolutely transparent corporate governance system in place?. We get disappointed with that corporate governance when you look at it in an absolute term, but when you look at in a relative sense, compared to Chinese companies, then there are lot of things, which are yet to be discovered.

Let's say, I have not heard too many people talking about what is the impact of the gas find which is going to happen in India. I think energy cost will come down, power cost will come down, fertilizer subsidies will come down, subsidies on LPG will come down. Where is it all factored in? There are manifold opportunities. People are getting worried about this 3%-4% deficit. What is this? I think in absolute terms this is nothing compared to what opportunities lye ahead. But India is India - there will be periods up and down but as I said, investing is all about holding on to your conviction. I, for one, will hold on to my conviction.

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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 16/Jul/2007 at 10:18pm
Yes,i was remembering you when he said the benefits of KG Basin! Clap
 
Once again TED is ahead of Fund Managers!!!
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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ndzapak
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Quote ndzapak Replybullet Posted: 16/Jul/2007 at 11:49am
Thanks Devesh, i think the credit goes to this wonderful forum which
inspires and challenges you to think ahead and think differently.
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