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Posted: 07/Apr/2008 at 6:25pm
It's very difficult to asses the exact extent of yen carry trade.
The figure may be much higher than estimated.
It's not only Banks/Funds/Corporates/Professionals, who are into yen carry trade
but
ordinary persons(Who, otherwise are not in financial markets) are also dragged in. A freind of mine in Germany, bought a house two years ago and it was financed through yen carry. I believe,many housewifes all over world (Imagine including East Europe) are knowingly or unknowlingly involved in it.
I, personally believe that the unwinding that we have seen so far is by short/medium term players.
Long term players are, perhaps still sitting tight. They have tremendous cost advantage of 350-400 pips per year and the game is going on for so long. When these long term players exit or their stops are hit(Which may be very far off from these levels) then Yen may run 400-500 pips daily for a very big move, as happened some 12-13 years ago.
This is once in a decade/Two decades sort of affair and till it happens, the game may continue.
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Posted: 07/Apr/2008 at 8:01pm
Originally posted by rakeshmehta48
A freind of mine in Germany, bought a house two years ago and it was financed through yen carry. I believe,many housewifes all over world (Imagine including East Europe) are knowingly or unknowlingly involved in it.
Fwiw....Its NOT Yen carry in Europe. Its the CHF carry in play there. All Eastern Europe (Hungary, Poland, Romania etc etc) Housing markets are financed from CHF loans.
Originally posted by rakeshmehta48
I, personally believe that the unwinding that we have seen so far is by short/medium term players. Long term players are, perhaps still sitting tight. They have tremendous cost advantage of 350-400 pips per year and the game is going on for so long. When these long term players exit or their stops are hit(Which may be very far off from these levels) then Yen may run 400-500 pips daily for a very big move, as happened some 12-13 years ago.
Where is the cost advantage for Long term players when YEN has appreciated by approx 25% (2500 pips) in the last 8 months.
The Carry-to-Risk profile of a carry trade had shot up very high in Jan-Feb period, which means that all trades have capitulated.
*Carrry-to-risk = Difference between Libors of YEN and USD (or any two currencies) devided by Annualized volatility of the pair. (USD-JPY in this case).
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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Posted: 07/Apr/2008 at 8:13pm
Originally posted by rakeshmehta48
Japan will never admit before intervention. Their export lobby is very strong. All of a sudden BOJ will intervene and declare only when the process is over. They have done it many times in the past.
Last few years they have not done it because JPY was range bound or on weaker side. Now they can do it any moment and definately, they will not announce it before doing so.
A repost would be apropriatre here ...There has been no more FOREX intervention ever by the G7 so far....
Look for BOJ..
Source: Reuters, May 15, 2003
LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - The following is a chronology of intervention in foreign exchange markets by major central banks on the dollar, yen, mark and euro.
May 15, 2003 - Dealers in London and New York say Japanese monetary authorities sold yen for dollar when the yen rose to a 10-month high of 115.33 in early New York trade. Japanese authorities declined comment.
May 13, 2003 - Japan detected conducted yen-selling intervention in the currency market after the dollar fell as low as 116.36 yen in late Tokyo trade. There was no confirmation from the Japanese authorities.
January-March 2003 - Data on intervention showed Japanese authorities spent 2.5 trillion yen on currency intervention from January to March.
February 28, 2003 - Japan's Finance Ministry confirms it has conducted solo intervention for a second straight month, buying dollars and euros worth about 513 billion yen. It said it had asked the Bank of Japan to step into the market several times in late February and that euro-buying had been "far less" than dollar-buying versus the yen.
Mid-January, 2003 - Japan conducts solo intervention under newly-appointed top financial diplomat Zembei Mizoguchi, spending a little less than 700 billion yen days after the yen rose to a four-month high around 117.40 against the dollar. The Ministry of Finance confirmed the action later in January.
June 28, 2002 - Bank of Japan intervenes to sell yen, and U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank also sell yen on BOJ's behalf early in New York trading. ECB confirms it buys euros for yen. Traders see sharp euro move from around 118.10 to highs above 119. Dealers also see FED buying dollars for yen around 119, lifting the dollar ro highs around 120.35. BOJ data released in July showed Japan spent about 520.5 billion yen to weaken the yen on this day alone.
June 26, 2002 - Bank of Japan intervenes to sell yen, lifting the dollar to 121.35 from around 120.20-30. Second bout takes the dollar to around 121.10 from 120.50/60. Third bout in early European session takes dollar to 120.70 from 120.03. BOJ is estimated to have bought $ 18.56 billion in its intervention operations in June, including May 31.
June 24, 2002 - Bank of Japan intervenes to sell yen in early afternoon Tokyo trading, lifting the dollar to around 122.80 from 121.10/15 as the greenback fell to a seven-month low below 121 in the previous session.
June 4, 2002 - Bank of Japan intervenes to sell yen, lifting the dollar a full yen from 123.35 yen.
May 31, 2002 - BOJ intervenes to sell yen for dollars as the dollar falls to around 123 yen, after it dropped to a six-month low below 123 in the previous session. Intervention takes it back up to 124.45/50 before another slide to 124 and around of BOJ yen-selling. Third bout takes it from around 123.75 to above 124.
May 23, 2002 - BOJ intervenes for second straight day, seen selling yen for dollars at 123.90/95.
May 22, 2002 - BOJ intervenes to sell yen for dollars, after the dollar fell to a 5-1/2 month low of 123.50 on doubts about the speed of the U.S. economic recovery. BOJ seen intervening at 123.80/90 yen per dollar.
September 24/26/27/28, 2001 - BOJ intervenes to sell yen for dollars, worrying about an export crippling rise in the value of the yen and following attacks on U.S. cities on September 11. September 24/26/27 intervention is not limited to the dollar but includes buying euros for yen, with European Central Bank (ECB) and euro zone central banks operating on behalf of BOJ. On September 27 Japan says the New York Federal Reserve intervenes on its behalf for the first time in the September month.
September 17/19/21, 2001 - BOJ intervenes to sell yen for dollars.
November 10, 2000 - ECB in conjunction with national euro zone central banks intervenes to buy euros.
November 6, 2000 - ECB and the other euro zone national central banks intervene to buy euros.
November 3, 2000 - ECB and other euro zone national central banks intervene at least twice to buy euros, following the currency's five percent recovery from record lows set the previous week around $ 0.8225.
September 22, 2000 - Central Banks in Europe, Japan and the United States, acting together for first time since 1995, intervene to drive euro higher after currency hits all-time low below 85 cents two days earlier, a loss of nearly 30 percent of its value since its January 1999 launch. Intervention is first by ECB since its birth.
January 1999 to April 2000 - Japan concerned too-strong yen, trading around 108 to the dollar in January, 1999, will choke off fragile economic recovery and intervenes in foreign exchange markets to tame its strenght. Bank of Japan (BOJ) sells yen at least 18 times in this time period, including once via the Federal Reserve and once via the ECB. Despite intervention, yen continues to strengthen against dollar, reaching 102 by April 2000.
April-June 1998 - With yen weakening, BOJ intervenes to support its currency. As yen crumples below 144 to the dollar, U.S. authorities on June 17, 1998 join the BOJ, spending $ 833 million buying yen.
April 1994-August 1995 - Dollar sinks to record lows against the German mark, reaching 1.41 in July 1995, and it hits post-World-War II lows against the yen below 83 to the dollar in April 1995. From April 1994, United States intervenes repeatedly, often in concert with Japanese and individual European central banks, to prop up U.S. currency. The last coordinated intervention with European banks in this period takes place on August 15, 1995.
April-August 1993 - U.S. buys dollars and sells yen.
1991-1992 -U.S. and European central banks intervene repeatedly as U.S. economy tumbles into recession during Gulf War, which weakens the dollar. U.S. intervenes on both sides of the market, spending more than $ 2.5 billion buying currencies and selling $ 750 billion.
1988-1990 - Dollar trends higher. U.S. intervenes after Group of Seven statements on importance of maintaining exchange rate stability.
February 1987 - Louvre Accord. Weak dollar, growing U.S. trade deficit and prospect of weakening U.S. economy raises concerns in Europe and Japan about further dollar weakening. G5 plus Italy meet at Louvre in Paris and issue statement agreeing to "foster stability of exchange rates around current levels". United States, frequently in coordinated operations, intervenes a number of times to buy dollars.
September 1985 - Plaza Accord. Group of Five - U.S., Germany, Japan, Britain, France - meet at Plaza Hotel in New York to discuss concerns about very strong dollar and U.S. worries about decling competitiveness. Following weeks see substantial intervention sales of dollars for other G5 currencies by U.S. and other monetary authorities.
1980-1981 - U.S. authorities intervene to tame strengthened dollar.
1978-1979 - Dollar comes under heavy pressure amid high oil prices, high U.S. inflation and deteriorating balance of payments. In November 1978 a major new dollar support programme is introduced to raise large war chest up to $ 30 billion. U.S. intervenes forcefully and often in the market with other central banks.
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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Posted: 07/Apr/2008 at 8:24pm
In last 8-12 months Yen futures have moved from approx 8200 to 9800 today.
A move of 1600 pips.
Rest of the pips, is cost advantage for carry holder. Means his total loss for one year is 1600 pips. (Total advantage in a decade is close to 4000 pips)
And this level of 9800 came 1-2 years ago also when long term players were not cut.
I think, any one who sold yen a decade ago has a shelter upto approx 12000 in yen futures (Spot USD-JPY around 80-85 level)
To me, Capitulation looks, bit further down the road.
Having said this
Bubble Ji, I am no way in favour of carry trade. Am deadly against it
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Posted: 07/Apr/2008 at 8:40pm
Bubble Ji
Re: Repost
I agree that there's no intervention during last few years, perhaps because of range/weaker yen and same thing I have mentioned in my original post also.
But, there's no guarantee that it will not happen in future. Come capitulation and BOJ follows.
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