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Vivek Sukhani
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Joined: 23/Jul/2006
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   Posted: 06/Apr/2007 at 11:56am |
Excellent manish, by the way do you track titanium....this metal can also do great guns, its majorly controlled by China...... look at nickel, man!!!!! Who says commodities are gone????? True they are cyclicals but if appropriately bought, they turn out such big money!!!!!
By the way, Manish do you have any take on Sesa now.... INR-USD becoming a cause of concern. However, if ore prices harden further, such stocks may jump quite big from here.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Joined: 23/Jul/2006
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Posted: 07/Apr/2007 at 12:02pm |
Also, do you have any take on off-shore sector now..... look at aban Lloyd??? With crude prices at ablove 60 dollars to a barrel E&P will have to rise, so can we play an indirect game in this area by getting into off-shore plays???
Regards,
Vivek
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Rinku
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Joined: 06/Apr/2007
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Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 12:31pm |
guys Pls enlighten me.
What should be included in Total Debt(Equity Share capital,Preference share capital,reserves and surplus,secured loans and unsecured loans).
Do you think the is any compony in our market which satisfies the below creteria?
Grahams Number.
Finding A Company's Net Current Assets
First we need to get the Current Assets and the Total Liabilities of Company XYZ. You can do this in Yahoo! Finance (www.yahoo.com, click on "Finance"). Enter the stock symbol of the company you're looking for and click on "Balance Sheet," on the bottom, left-hand-side of the page.
Let's say the balance sheet for Company XYZ says the following: $3.6 billion Current Assets, and $2.1 billion Total Debt. Therefore, "Graham's Number" (or net current assets) is $1.5 billion.
Now we need to consider the market value of Company XYZ (also called the "market cap" and calculated as number of shares times current market price). Is XYZ an extraordinary bargain, selling at less than two-thirds of its net current assets?
Let's say Company XYZ's market cap is $1.3 billion at the moment. So you can buy the stock for less than its net current assets - you're buying at a discount to cash, in a sense. A bargain.
However, in order to buy at two-thirds of Graham's number (1.5 billion, in this case), you'd want XYZ's market value to be at $1.0 billion or less (66% of 1.5 billion). Cutting to the chase, the current price for XYZ ($6.50, which equates to $1.3 billion in market cap) isn't at the 66% level we'd need to make this a "Graham's Number" investment. The price will have to come down to $5 per share for that.
You can do this homework yourself to find stocks that meet this criteria. It will likely take a little wrestling of stock screeners and spreadsheets, or checking out the Value Line. But the hard work can have a significant payoff.
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basant
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Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 12:48pm |
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These are good for academics only. You may find such opportunities but certainly not after a 4 year bull run with the index at 16 times forward PE.
Edited by basant - 12/Apr/2007 at 12:50pm
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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xbox
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Joined: 10/Sep/2006
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Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 6:00am |
These are good for academics only.
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Basant jee, apne mere muh kee baat bol dee.  |
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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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basant
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Posted: 19/May/2007 at 10:17am |
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani
Just a mild protest here.....
Its all about faith, be it in a dark horse, or a bright horse or even an ass.....if somebody has a firm faith in a particular company, and when he has bought X number of shares at a price of Y, then he should buy 2X shres at a price of Y/2. Market swings will always be savage. To illustrate, Infosys made a high of 1726.61 in March 2000( the price has been adjusted for bonus and splits that occured thereafter) and in October 2001, it hit a low of 269.50......now if you wouldnt have had the confidence to own more during such doldrum periods and if you had invested at highs during 2000, you wouldnt even would have doubled your money in 7 years time....a shameful act in stock markets. I may be very harsh in choice of words, but I cant help it. We may be running the same risk now.....As my grand-dad used to say, you can take just 2 routes in stock markets... High risk-low return and low risk-high return, I myself adhere to the same philosophy. A stock may pass through both the stages, but investors dont have the confidence when risks are actually low and returns high. So, all he used to say that in case you have fallen into high risk low return phase, then dont forego the opportunity to invest in low risk high return phase. His thinking may be old but not entirely irrelevant either.
Vipul may protest, that at one place I have said I am taking too much risk by getting into defensives. Theere is no inconsistency, as the notion of risk is different in both the caes....in one, the risk is not being able to perform according to the market and in case of my grand-dad's argument, risk means outperforming the market during the fall.....
Regards,
Vivek |
AT that time Infy traded at a PE of 300 and growth had to be adjusted downwards. If there is any stock where the growth has to be adjusted downwards then surely we need to be on our feet. But what do you say of a company that has little or no growth has value but all of us are unaware of how that value is to be unlocked!!!
Ramesh Damani made a interesting point in a TV show "MC DOwell traded at the same price level for 40 years...." now who were to argue that it could not have traded at that level for 45 years. The last 5 years would have been the most crucial of all those years of underperformance.
Value stocks without a catalyst is like a 70 year old man without a Viagra. It seeme he could do it but then he could not!
SO VIP could double or also quadraple from here I have never studied this company in detail so I would not know but there are several instances of that value argument going wrong. The regular chat participants would be able to note that down.
A few weeks back I was worried about Network18 not because it was not value but because I could not find a catalyst that would explain its value to the market. network 18 is no more a value stock now but that makes us more happy then sad because we are all rich by 80% in 3 weeks!!!
One stock that I kept holding for 36 months(and paid a huge opportunity cost because money is always limited) was HTMT. I bought it at Rs 90 and held it for 3 years before finally saying goodbye at Rs 225 (after having seen Rs 400). I was unable to find any catalyst there and so the stock price underperformed(in comparision to the other stocks that I held at that time).
Edited by basant - 19/May/2007 at 10:20am
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Vivek Sukhani
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Posted: 19/May/2007 at 10:56am |
Basant Sir, even a catalyst has to be priced....
Candidly enough, I dont get too much into catalysts and things like that....as dad says I have been plain and simply lucky in this market, and my investments in the doldrum period of 2000-2002,simply fetched me 10 times in 2 cases....I get into dividend paying value plays which are showing tendency to increase the dividend over the period....so when i got into GE shipping at 138, it was paying 9 rs. dividend.... now it is paying 11.50.... so actually my dividend yield is more than 8 p.c.and I have made more than 2.5 times my money (adjusting for great off-shore), but at that moment I had no idea about this catalyst. For my holding in syngenta for 17-18 months, I was losing in 16 months......but all of a sudden in the 17th month, I doubled my money..... so for me patience has more or less consistently paid....Basant Sir, we need to have a zone of comfort which may be itself a circle of competence....its true my stocks are not consistent performers, so for those who look at markets on a minutely/hourly/daily basis, my picks wont make any sense at all.....
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smartcat
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Joined: 29/Mar/2007
Location: India
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Posts: 4243
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Posted: 18/Dec/2007 at 10:57am |
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Valueman, does Index funds interest you? The possibility of 'losing money' is low here, but returns might be higher.
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