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The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental

Topic: The concept of "Free" shares.

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basant Admin Group Joined: 01/Jan/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 18403	Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 2:27pm
	Firstly we are here to exchange views and not get into "heated arguments". I do not know the person whom Kulman was talking about. I was just talking about the strategy so there is nothing to get into a heated argument. Secondly I am not aware of how much you have seen the market nor would I comment on how much I have experienced it. It is all realtive. Time has nothing to do with experience. Unless an investor bets he cannot say. Even if he has seen 3 bear markets I am sure he would not learn unless he loses money and that is very important. Thirdly It is allright for people to give views on startegies but blindly forecasting as to what would happen and what would not is incorrect and should be restricted. Fourthly I am not worried about losing 50% of my portfolio and that is my style. You might have a different style but that does not mean any one of us is wrong as long as we are playing with our money. Finally what I find objectionable is your attitude to take digs at the smarter guys in business. You have repeatedly written "Buy what you see" and compared a Bata to that. Now Peter Lynch is not related to me but in my model of things he stands there right at the top. If you have read One up on Wall Street you will understand (and realise) that Lynch does not say just go and buy anything that you see. This is the Chapter - 1 of investing but you have tried to make it the Chapter - 11 of Investing. If "Buy what you see" would have been the only thing I could have bought CESC with all my money. This is not the first time it has happened but I surely hope that this would be the last time.
	'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Vivek Sukhani Senior Member Joined: 23/Jul/2006 Online Status: Offline Posts: 6675	Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 2:33pm
	Thats because you are an enterprising investor and he is more conservative. Even I scoutfor mid-caps but then the probabilty of our getting mistaken is fairly high as well.I am ok with Point no.9 but with Point No.5, even I disagree. But the most important thing is that he is correct and has evidently shown it, is what we must appreciate.Actually, you know Reetesh most of the stock market wizards have such traits.... fearful, conservative, slow-moving(undynamic), very unreactive. And i dont know what is your observation in this regard, but those guys who prefer not to be in the "market" are the ones who make a killing most of the time.Whenever, I hear a person claiming to be very busy during market hours,I get fearful of that person...thats where we make the most of mistakes, sitting before the screen.equity decisions, require very fine brains and most of us may be intelligent and enthusiaistic yet we dont have that emotional intelligence reqyured to succeed in equities.I may be sounding prophetic but am a kid to be polite to myself in this dungeoon and I am quite sure I will finish myself off before I initiate my next innings.
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Vivek Sukhani Senior Member Joined: 23/Jul/2006 Online Status: Offline Posts: 6675	Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 2:44pm
	Exchanging views will always initiate arguments. So, I think we need not fight over it. As far as buying what you see was concerned, i apologise for the same. Although, I have high respect for Peter Lynch yet I beleive its a matter of time when to adopt what standards. In 2003, such an approach would have been fairly rewarding but now, I have my doubts. As far as forecasting is concerned, it is one of my per comments that I dont know what will/shall go up/down. So, there is no chance of my being a prophet in that regard. I am totally incometent to say such things. As far as reading about the gentleman I am talking about is concerned, it is all there in this post. I am merely trying to be supportive of his case.Also, I have no business to enquire about others' losses or loss making capacity. And I have never talked on that point, I suppose. In a nutshell, it was a continuation of what was being discussed( the gentleman who made a lot of wealth) and I found his case as supportive. So, its normal for me to shout against a logic which is being used to shout down a person who has made money in this market using a contrasting style.
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BubbleVision Senior Member Joined: 05/Aug/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 3142	Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 3:05pm
	Hi Vivek -- i would NOT like to enter a mess but i would disagree with 2 things you have said earlier 1) you cannot form formulas and live in stock markets. --- Recommending read about TURTLES (Richard Dennis, William Edkhardt). 2) most of the stock market wizards have such traits.... fearful, conservative, slow-moving(undynamic), very unreactive. -- i would disagree as these terms are used loosely i believe. i would like to state come of my understanding Fearful -- only of the Markets, while having Supreme SELF CONFIDENCE to make money in the markets..Like Jim Rogers buying Germany in 1982. Conservative and slow moving -- only when the chips are down, or else being agressive -- read DANA GALLANTE... very unreactive -- Only reality needs reaction and not every action. -- Read Tom Baldwin.. He was the most reactive trader the world has ever seen... Or even Michael Marcus, when he traded GOLD in HK....
	You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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Vivek Sukhani Senior Member Joined: 23/Jul/2006 Online Status: Offline Posts: 6675	Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 3:08pm
	Good...
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Vivek Sukhani Senior Member Joined: 23/Jul/2006 Online Status: Offline Posts: 6675	Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 3:13pm
	basant kindly delete all this... it is killing the discussion of what was such a healthy topic...
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prosperity Senior Member Joined: 01/Sep/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 546	Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 4:06pm
	Adding to Basantji's statements - Lynch's "Buy what you see" is also related to Buffet's "Buy what you understand" Both of these statements mean .. Buy what you see IF what you see makes attractive business sense Buy what you understand IF what you understand makes attractive business sense And these 2 are related coz, unless you see - you cannot really understand it .. Keep things simple and common sense would explain it to you - why do humans complicate their own life - Thatz the greatest amazing behaviour of humans, i should say ! Edited by prosperity - 23/Sep/2006 at 4:06pm
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kulman Senior Member Joined: 02/Sep/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 9319	Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 5:51pm
	Basantjee On this topic, I would like to post this last posting from my side. You seem to be the only one amongst 180+ members who has learnt the hardest way (I mean having seen Harshad Mehta days when you were in college....then Tech Bubble...you have lost money....and all that). There is no question that "hold forever" is what has worked for so many Gurus, and that's why they are called so. Their purchase price has always been a real value, like your Pantaloon case. Remember what RJ said in his interview: What we buy is important, but at what price we buy is the most important. You have developed this conviction from the hard experience you had gone through. Now consider case of lesser mortals (like me), who believe in this theory of "hold forever", but did not enter during bear phase (read: great buying time) due to lack of knowledge...guts...or whatever may the reason. We also believe in long-term secular structural bullish India story. We want to participate in the rally. But are afraid that markets are running away...On the value parameter, we see that stocks we like are fairly priced. Cannot seem to find real value-picks...with comfortable margin of safety. Considering all this background, look at following *hypothetical* scenario: I buy 500 shares of TV18 at 450. When it goes up to 800, I sell 200 shares. My average cost of acquisition of balance 300 shares would be 216 now, which I feel comfortable with to treat this as a value buy. Now I hold this forever in my core portfoilio unless some fundamental shift occurs. This gives me great comfort feeling. What would you say? Please give your frank opinion.
	Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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