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Message Icon Topic: Aban Loyd - Digging Black Gold Post Reply Post New Topic
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 13/Oct/2007 at 8:44am
Originally posted by smartcat

Is there an article on TED where I can read about RoNW and how it will affect the stock price/company performance?  I know what it stands for, but don't know what I'm supposed to learn from this number. Is RoNW something that we should look at when evaluating asset-based companies?
 
Yes, there are estimated consolidated EPS numbers. The results that were declared on Friday were standalone numbers. Aban has not declared the Sinvest's (100% subsidiary) results yet.
 
RoNW is the same as RoE sometimes we refer to the Net worth as equity. We keep playing the RoE and RoCE. factor like a broken record!
 
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deepinsight
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Quote deepinsight Replybullet Posted: 13/Oct/2007 at 11:24am
Did we discuss huge debt/leaverage that the company employs? (am not sure if it was Aban or another company)
 
One has to be worried about very high level of debt/leaverge that any company employs. Great ROE's till some unforseen event may suddenly change things for the company.
 
Any thoughts?


Edited by deepinsight - 13/Oct/2007 at 11:34am
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 14/Oct/2007 at 12:05pm
That is why RoE shoudl be looked at in conjuction with RoCE. Can never fiddle with the RoCE while RoE can be jacked up by using debt.
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 14/Oct/2007 at 12:33pm

Aban will be listing its 100% subsidiary - Aban Singapore (which in turn owns a few rigs and 100% of Sinvest, Norway) in the Singapore Stock Exchange. Aban hopes to raise something like $400 million - this should give some relief to the balance sheet.

By the way, there is a huge discrepancy between EPS estimates of Sharekhan (Rs. 109, 391, 506 for FY08, 09, 10) and Emkay (Rs. 117, 274, 383 for FY08, 09, 10). Looks like Sharekhan is ignoring the equity dilution possibility. But the management has probably given a guidance of Rs. 1,800 crores net profit for FY10 -  so all brokerages including Citigroup/Merrill Lynch are carrying this number.
 
punters on aban and other oil stocks may please read www.debka.com the intelligence website from israel. it has regular stories on the situation in the middle east. what if the US attacks Iran and countries like syria and the hamas retaliate by striking israel. 
 
No need to pray for a War in Middle East or a hurricane to strike USA. All one needs to do is keep track of the prices at which rigs are rented out. If rig contracts are re-negotiated at higher price, things are going well. Else, it might be the right time to bail out of the stock.
 
right now aban's balance sheet shows the company is floating on hopes....
 
Borrowing from the movie Matrix -
 
Hope. It is the quintessential human delusion, simultaneously the source of our greatest strength and our greatest weakness.


Edited by smartcat - 14/Oct/2007 at 12:34pm
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 23/Oct/2007 at 12:47pm
From Khandwala Securities research report on Aban Loyd -
 
- Mar 2008 target price of Rs. 4,735
 
- Consolidated expected PAT growth of 200% over next 2 years
 
- Demand for rigs will peak in 2010.
 
- Debt to equity ratio will go down from 20:1 to 3:1 in the next 3 years because of future cash flows.
 
- Owns 20 drilling rigs (Great Offshore, in comparison, owns 2)
 
Financial Summary:

                            FY2006    FY2007        FY2008E      FY2009E        FY2010E
Sales (Rs. Cr)
             490         718           1,499       3,171            4,132
Net Profit (Rs. Cr)         82        (34)             527        1,659           2,039
Basic EPS (Rs.)         22.35      (9.34)        143.28      450.87          554.28
P/Ex                      179.21   (429.12)         27.96        8.89             7.23


Edited by smartcat - 23/Oct/2007 at 12:47pm
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 02/Nov/2007 at 3:34pm
Aban will be able to raise $500 million for only 13% of Aban Singapore. That means the Singapore subsidiary alone is valued at $3.8 billion (Rs. 15,000 crores). The current market cap of Aban Offshore is just Rs. 19,000 crores.
 
This means, Aban Offshore's India operations, which owns 5 rigs (I think) is available at just Rs. 4,000 crores.
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 02/Nov/2007 at 4:32pm
so still avery valuable co even at this price, what yu say boss?
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 02/Nov/2007 at 4:39pm

Absolutely. And suddenly investors seem to be taking notice - even Dalaal Street Magazine has come out with a small article on Aban. The stock is up 5 times in the past 12 months. So where will it go from here?

My guess is Rs. 9,000 to 10,000 per share - that's 20 times FY10 estimated earnings. That's when I plan to get out of it. Because after 2010, there might be an increased supply of offshore rigs, which might depress the earnings of drilling companies.
 
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