I think that holding companies should be valued on the bais of the earnings made by its subsidiaries. I would look at it like this:
Let H be the holding Company with no operating assets having an issued capital of 1 crore divided into 1 million shares of Rs.10 each.Lets assume its holding interest to be 80 p.c.
Let S be the subidiary with operating assets having an issued capital of Rs. 5 crore divided into 5 million shares of Rs. 10 each. Let the earning per share be Rs. 20.
Now PAT of S=Rs. 20*5million=Rs. 10 crores.
H's interest =80 p.c.
So, H's share of this PAT=.8*10crores=Rs.8 crores.
This will translate into a notional earnings of Rs. 80 per share in case of H.(80 million/1 million)
Now comes the most important part of assigning a multiple:
Now assume a compounded rate of growth for profit for S. The terminal profit growth rate in my opinion, will be something like an IRR which will equate the discounted NAV.
Assign the arrived at figure to RS.80 and get the theoretical value of holding company.
Compare this with the market valuation and notice the deviation and place your position accordingly.
This approach will resolve many issues:
1.You dont have to bother about whether subsidiary companies pays dividend or not.
2.You can ignore whether the market is giving proper value to subidiaries or not. In my approach there is nothing called market valuation of subsidiary. I think you should assume the market value of your asset when the asset under consideration is marketable. Most holding companies will never sell their stake except in extra-ordinary circumstances, so why shall we assume the market value of subidiaries. Also, you cant change the value of a block asset on day to day basis
There is just one place where some imagination is involved. we have to get the CAGR for future profits of S. This is a very tricky area for me and hence I have never got into any holding company game....except when something is available really cheap.As a matter of conservatism you can see what life cycle the product that S makes is is in....then you may chose according rate. However, fancy multiples of 30 p.c. growth rate should be totally avaoided...... when we get into terminal valuations we assume growth, matuity and decline , all three.....so as maturity falls into the mean between growth and decline, be slightly conservative in getting the CAGR.
I understand my approach may be termed veru bookish, yet one must never ignore science while getting into valuations.