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xbox
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 16/Nov/2006 at 5:24am
Now ppl are bullish in real estate stocks as they were in IT companies at last doom (2000).
IT doom does not mean end of IT or so but it only indicated high leverage on markets can not sustain for long. If base of building becomes stronger and stronger (comparision with EPS), more and more stories can be build (stk price can move). But there is limit for every thing. How can one explain triple digits PE for any these companies ?
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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PrashantS
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Quote PrashantS Replybullet Posted: 17/Nov/2006 at 2:36am

Donald Trump’s view on India Today

Donald Trump, “The Trump”, New York real estate tycoon has a perception of India. In the book that he co-authored with Robert Kiyosaki “Why We Want You To Be Rich?” which is already #1 on NY Times best seller list. In his book he quotes,

Do we have a sense of the direction India is going ? Do we know anything about India ?
Here are a few facts to get us going:
India is the world’s largest, oldest continuous civilization.
In the last 10,000 years, India has never invaded any country.
India is the world’s largest democracy.
India is one of the few countries in the world that gained independence without violence.
The art of navigation was born in the river Sindh 6,000 years ago.
Sanskrit is the mother of all European languages.
India was the richest country on earth until the 17th Century, when the British invaded.
…………………………………………
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India is the largest English-speaking nation in the world.

He also mentions praises the Indians in the same context saying that “38 percent of doctors in the United States are of Indian descent and 12 percent of the scientists as well. They represent the wealthiest of all the ethnic groups in the United States as well as globally.

However the point he is trying to make is that India is worth looking into at this point of time in the booming economy. Also his eldest children Don Trump Jr. and Ivanka both working for the Trump organization had recently made a trip to India. It must raise your eyebrows if you know Trump’s taste for fine real estate or you are in the real estate business. Considering Trump’s reputation and his real estate holdings in the New York city alone I would not be surprised if he’s planning on investing in Bengalooru or Mumbai or New Delhi or a mix of these. My first guess would be New Delhi and then some day he’ll invest on MG Road Bengalooru. That’ll be the day MG Road will get back it’s lost glory. However mind you, his buildings will not be open for all, they are only for the rich-and-famous, if you’re not rich, you’ll still consider yourself lucky that he’s letting you see his buildings with naked eyes :-)
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Quote nikhil090 Replybullet Posted: 22/Nov/2006 at 10:55am
Hi Basantji,

What is your view on the IPO of SObha Developers? Is their room for appreciation on listing and beyond? I heard news that grey market premium is running at 400+ Rs and it will list above 1000..

Regards
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 22/Nov/2006 at 11:02am
Not been a supporter of this reality stocks - because I cannot understand how they work. Pantaloon though is also a  classic real estate play

Edited by basant - 24/Nov/2006 at 2:24pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2007 at 7:23pm
India's Property-Stock Boom May End on Loan Curbs 

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Unitech Ltd., India's largest real-estate developer by market value, soared 26,869 percent during the past three years. Anant Raj Industries Ltd., a competitor, leapt 39,548 percent.

Both have dropped at least 5 percent from peaks in November and December and further losses may lie ahead. The highest interest rates in four years, tighter lending requirements and seven share sales this year are hurting real-estate stocks. Those companies had rallied as a property boom pushed apartment prices in southern Mumbai to near-Manhattan levels.

``Property stock valuations are approaching bubble territory,'' said Parameswara Krishnan, who manages $150 million at DNB Nor Asset Management in Chennai, India. ``We should see some correction.'' He said he is avoiding real-estate shares.

Indian developers are among the BSE index's most expensive members on a price-to-earnings basis. Unitech trades at 31 times expected earnings, while Anant Raj, a New Delhi-based developer in which billionaire George Soros bought a stake last year, is at 67 times. That compares with 21 times for the BSE-500 and 19 times for the eight stocks in Bloomberg's Asia-Pacific Home Builders Index.

Average home prices tripled over the past three years, buoyed by the world's second-quickest growth rate among major economies after China.

A six-bedroom duplex apartment in the Malabar Hill area in South Mumbai, where Bollywood actor Vinod Khanna and Citigroup Inc.'s India head Sanjay Nayar reside, sold for about 250 million rupees ($5.7 million), according to the buyer, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. Jhunjhunwala, a Mumbai-based private investor with about $250 million in Indian equities, bought the property in June of last year.

A comparable apartment on the Upper East Side of Manhattan would cost between $6.5 million and $8 million, said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel Inc., a real-estate appraisal firm in New York.

India's developers also look expensive when their share prices are measured against the value of the land they own for construction, Jhunjhunwala says. Though he bought an expensive apartment to live in, he's avoiding real estate stocks.

``Land bank valuations by developers are unrealistically high,'' he said. The valuations may not be justified because the projects will take five or six years to complete, he said.

Rising incomes and easy financing have driven demand for housing among India's 1.1 billion people. Average salaries in India rose 13.8 percent last year, the fastest growth in the Asia-Pacific region. They may rise as much as 15 percent this year, according to Hewitt Associates Inc.

Mumbai's office rentals are now the third highest in the Asia-Pacific region after Hong Kong and Tokyo, a survey by property adviser DTZ Debenham Tie Leung Ltd. showed. It costs annually $88.2 per square foot to rent office space in Mumbai, compared with Tokyo's $97 and Hong Kong's $141.

The central bank is moving to cool the market. The Reserve Bank of India on Jan. 31 raised its overnight lending rate for the fifth time in a year to 7.5 percent and asked lenders to double provisions for commercial real estate loans to 2 percent in an attempt to curb defaults.

Housing Development Finance Corp., the country's second- largest mortgage lender, raised its rates four times over the past year to 9.5 percent.

``The continued high credit growth in the real estate sector, is a matter of concern,'' the central bank said.

Colliers International India Property Services says average property prices across the nation may drop as much as 20 percent over the next two years as more homes are built.

Still, demand for homes and offices mean any drop in property stocks will probably be a correction and not a rout.

``While a decline in housing affordability and potential oversupply could weaken prices in the near term, the long term outlook remains attractive on strong demand,'' analyst Mahesh Nandurkar at CLSA Asia Pacific Markets wrote in a Jan. 25 note.

Commercial and residential construction in India, Asia's fourth-largest economy, will surge to $50 billion by 2010 from $12 billion in 2005, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. report. India will need as many as 10 million new housing units a year by 2030, according to estimates by the Asian Development Bank.

Initial share sales, though, will be competing with existing listed real estate companies for investor funds. Seven property companies have sought regulatory approval for IPOs so far this year, up from just two last year. The largest will be billionaire Kushal Pal Singh's DLF Ltd., which aims to raise about $2 billion, expected over the next couple of months.

As more supply of paper hits the market, valuations and returns will come down to more stable levels,'' said Krishnan, at DNB Nor Asset Management in Chennai. ``Companies may not be able to get the pricing they want.''

Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2007 at 7:28pm
Good Information on Property companies Kulman.
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2007 at 7:36pm
For more details, read original Bloomberg article. I've posted excerpts only.
 
I heard from couple of Mungerilals (Niftywalle) that market is 'Top-Heavy' now & looking for excuses for massive correction to 3800. They mentioned also about real estate bubble!
 
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 10/Feb/2007 at 8:24pm
There are NO real estate stocks in Nifty... What a "Bubble" without any sectoral participation in the NIFTY.....Niftywalle Mungeri.. lage raho!.....
 
Have they forgotten that in May-06 commodies fell and then the fall in metal stocks were blamed on LME...But this time when the LME prices fell.. Metals stocks have Rallied!
 
 
Note this is not an offer to buy or sell nifty.
 
Everyone must define his own strategy.....
 
In my view a fall to 3800 (if seen) would be a  mild correction rather then a massive correction... Guess my term period varies..
 
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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