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basant
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Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 18403
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   Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 11:21am |
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Companies on which we can predict for 10 years need no extrapolating analysis and the ones in which we cannot predict need not be analysed like that at all. Some how I have felt that the world has become too dynamic and volatile for long range analysis. What we need to do is understand whether broadly the current price makes sense over a 2 to 3 year period and then periodically revisit our assumptions based out of corporate action.
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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vijayM
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Joined: 21/Dec/2007
Location: India
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Posts: 649
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Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 11:30am |
Originally posted by shivkumar
Vijay, have you tried calculating the PEG growth of Punj Lloyd? If L&T has fallen so much, P L has fallen even sharper. So the latter should be even more attractive considering that P L is likely to be the next L&T.
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sHIV JI,
PUNJ LLOYD DETAILS
CMP=331
TTMEPS=3.7
MAR09EPS=17.57
EPS GR=375%
PEG=0.24 (UNDERVALUED)
1Y FWD P/E=18.8
2Y FWD P/E=14.3
please take the advice of TED GURUJI before buying it.
vijayM
Edited by vijayM - 13/Apr/2008 at 11:32am
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If a business does well, the stock eventually follows:Warren Buffett
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shivkumar
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Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 11:42am |
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thanks
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basant
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Posted: 13/Apr/2008 at 11:55am |
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Never take growth at such fancy figures. I have mentioned this before that growth in excess of RoE is a mathematical impossibility subject to some caveats. Punj looks attractive but it is more of a 30%- 40% company.
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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investor
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Joined: 06/Sep/2006
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Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 12:45pm |
Its not that easy!! I've seen so many companies being touted as the next Infosys, believe me its not so simple. Similarly L&T is a bluechip amongst bluechips, for Punj to go anywhere even near a fraction of what L&T is, will take it atleast 20-30 years... companies like Infy and L&T are not built in a day! 
Originally posted by vijayM
... considering that P L is likely to be the next L&T.
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The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!
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xbox
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Joined: 10/Sep/2006
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Posts: 2001
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Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 12:55pm |
Here are few points which I look for ....
1. A sector of boom.
2. A management full of boon.
A sector which is at explosive growth path, scalable. A management which has high commitment (not necessarily high corporate gov), great execution skills and most important vision. I call them highly connected people.
I believe that financial, media and retailing (not dukan-wali) and real-estate are sector of wealth creation.
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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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deveshkayal
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Joined: 04/Sep/2006
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Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 9:25am |
Originally posted by xbox
I believe that financial, media and retailing (not dukan-wali) and real-estate are sector of wealth creation. |
Though the stock-price has corrected significantly, there are lots of concerns (maybe short term) in the real-estate like increase in interest rates and commodities prices, stock markets decline (most of the developers cash flows are negative, only option left are PE/VC).....
If I have to take exposure to this sector, i will prefer HDIL for its presence in Mumbai but then the stock cannot be an exception when the whole sector falls. The other day i read in TOI that a builder is buying existing flats at Rs.22,000/sq.ft in Boriwali when the prevailing rates are around Rs.7000/sq.ft.
Every newspaper/magazines are reporting that there are not enough buyers.
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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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investor
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Joined: 06/Sep/2006
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Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 11:04am |
why would they pay 3 times existing prices? 
Originally posted by deveshkayal
The other day i read in TOI that a builder is buying existing flats at Rs.22,000/sq.ft in Boriwali when the prevailing rates are around Rs.7000/sq.ft.
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The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!
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